Articles | Volume 6, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1543-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1543-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
13 Sep 2013
Model description paper |
| 13 Sep 2013
The Rock Geochemical Model (RokGeM) v0.9
G. Colbourn
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
A. Ridgwell
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
T. M. Lenton
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Related authors
No articles found.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Jakob Deutloff, Hermann Held, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 565–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. We find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. However, the additional warming and hence the additional risk of triggering other climate tipping points from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost remain small.
Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 411–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-411-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-411-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning signals used to detect tipping points are tested on a dataset of daily views of online electric vehicle (EV) adverts. The attention given to EV adverts spikes upwards after specific events before returning to normality more slowly over time. Alongside increases in autocorrelation and variance, these results are consistent with the movement towards a tipping point to an EV-dominated market, highlighting the ability of these signals to work in previously untested social systems.
Mark S. Williamson and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1483–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1483-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models have transitioned to a superrotating atmospheric state under a broad range of warm climates. Such a transition would change global weather patterns should it occur. Here we simulate this transition using an idealized climate model and look for any early warnings of the superrotating state before it happens. We find several early warning indicators that we attribute to an oscillating pattern in the windfield fluctuations.
Keyi Cheng, Andy Ridgwell, and Dalton S. Hardisty
Biogeosciences, 21, 4927–4949, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4927-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The carbonate paleoredox proxy, I / Ca, has shown its potential to quantify the redox change in the past ocean, which is of broad importance for understanding climate change and evolution. Here, we tuned and optimized the marine iodine cycling embedded in an Earth system model, “cGENIE”, against modern ocean observations and then tested its ability to estimate I / Ca in the Cretaceous ocean. Our study implies cGENIE’s potential to quantify redox change in the past using the I / Ca proxy.
Sibel Eker, Timothy M. Lenton, Tom Powell, Jürgen Scheffran, Steven R. Smith, Deepthi Swamy, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 789–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cascading effects through cross-system interactions are one of the biggest promises of positive tipping points to create rapid climate and sustainability action. Here, we review these in terms of their interactions with sociotechnical systems such as energy, transport, agriculture, society, and policy.
Aaron A. Naidoo-Bagwell, Fanny M. Monteiro, Katharine R. Hendry, Scott Burgan, Jamie D. Wilson, Ben A. Ward, Andy Ridgwell, and Daniel J. Conley
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1729–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As an extension to the EcoGEnIE 1.0 Earth system model that features a diverse plankton community, EcoGEnIE 1.1 includes siliceous plankton diatoms and also considers their impact on biogeochemical cycles. With updates to existing nutrient cycles and the introduction of the silicon cycle, we see improved model performance relative to observational data. Through a more functionally diverse plankton community, the new model enables more comprehensive future study of ocean ecology.
Antony Philip Emenyu, Thomas Pienkowski, Andrew M. Cunliffe, Timothy M. Lenton, and Tom Powell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2531, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores what processes could boost adoption rates for regenerative agriculture programs in Africa and draws on insights from successful rapid scaling of TIST in east Africa. Found that the cultivation of reinforcing feedback processes that strengthened the social capital around adoption and elimination of barriers to carbon accreditation for RA projects to be key success factors and possible opportunities new and ongoing RA programs to boost their adoption rates.
Stephen P. Hesselbo, Aisha Al-Suwaidi, Sarah J. Baker, Giorgia Ballabio, Claire M. Belcher, Andrew Bond, Ian Boomer, Remco Bos, Christian J. Bjerrum, Kara Bogus, Richard Boyle, James V. Browning, Alan R. Butcher, Daniel J. Condon, Philip Copestake, Stuart Daines, Christopher Dalby, Magret Damaschke, Susana E. Damborenea, Jean-Francois Deconinck, Alexander J. Dickson, Isabel M. Fendley, Calum P. Fox, Angela Fraguas, Joost Frieling, Thomas A. Gibson, Tianchen He, Kat Hickey, Linda A. Hinnov, Teuntje P. Hollaar, Chunju Huang, Alexander J. L. Hudson, Hugh C. Jenkyns, Erdem Idiz, Mengjie Jiang, Wout Krijgsman, Christoph Korte, Melanie J. Leng, Timothy M. Lenton, Katharina Leu, Crispin T. S. Little, Conall MacNiocaill, Miguel O. Manceñido, Tamsin A. Mather, Emanuela Mattioli, Kenneth G. Miller, Robert J. Newton, Kevin N. Page, József Pálfy, Gregory Pieńkowski, Richard J. Porter, Simon W. Poulton, Alberto C. Riccardi, James B. Riding, Ailsa Roper, Micha Ruhl, Ricardo L. Silva, Marisa S. Storm, Guillaume Suan, Dominika Szűcs, Nicolas Thibault, Alfred Uchman, James N. Stanley, Clemens V. Ullmann, Bas van de Schootbrugge, Madeleine L. Vickers, Sonja Wadas, Jessica H. Whiteside, Paul B. Wignall, Thomas Wonik, Weimu Xu, Christian Zeeden, and Ke Zhao
Sci. Dril., 32, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-32-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-32-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present initial results from a 650 m long core of Late Triasssic to Early Jurassic (190–202 Myr) sedimentary strata from the Cheshire Basin, UK, which is shown to be an exceptional record of Earth evolution for the time of break-up of the supercontinent Pangaea. Further work will determine periodic changes in depositional environments caused by solar system dynamics and used to reconstruct orbital history.
Mila Kim-Chau Fiona Ong, Fenna Blomsma, and Timothy Michael Lenton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2361, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the initially successful transition from regional bottle reuse for mineral water to a widespread bottle reuse system in Germany, its subsequent destabilisation, and what this teaches us about tipping dynamics in packaging systems. Our findings demonstrate opportunities to create an enabling environment for change, and the role of specific reinforcing feedback loops and interventions in accelerating or impeding sustainable transitions.
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
Thomas S. Ball, Naomi E. Vaughan, Thomas W. Powell, Andrew Lovett, and Timothy M. Lenton
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 929–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-929-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
C-LLAMA is a simple model of the global food system operating at a country level from 2013 to 2050. The model begins with projections of diet composition and populations for each country, producing a demand for each food commodity and finally an agricultural land use in each country. The model can be used to explore the sensitivity of agricultural land use to various drivers within the food system at country, regional, and continental spatial aggregations.
Katherine A. Crichton, Andy Ridgwell, Daniel J. Lunt, Alex Farnsworth, and Paul N. Pearson
Clim. Past, 17, 2223–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2223-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The middle Miocene (15 Ma) was a period of global warmth up to 8 °C warmer than present. We investigate changes in ocean circulation and heat distribution since the middle Miocene and the cooling to the present using the cGENIE Earth system model. We create seven time slices at ~2.5 Myr intervals, constrained with paleo-proxy data, showing a progressive reduction in atmospheric CO2 and a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
Yoshiki Kanzaki, Dominik Hülse, Sandra Kirtland Turner, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5999–6023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5999-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5999-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sedimentary carbonate plays a central role in regulating Earth’s carbon cycle and climate, and also serves as an archive of paleoenvironments, hosting various trace elements/isotopes. To help obtain
trueenvironmental changes from carbonate records over diagenetic distortion, IMP has been newly developed and has the capability to simulate the diagenesis of multiple carbonate particles and implement different styles of particle mixing by benthos using an adapted transition matrix method.
Jun Shao, Lowell D. Stott, Laurie Menviel, Andy Ridgwell, Malin Ödalen, and Mayhar Mohtadi
Clim. Past, 17, 1507–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Planktic and shallow benthic foraminiferal stable carbon isotope
(δ13C) data show a rapid decline during the last deglaciation. This widespread signal was linked to respired carbon released from the deep ocean and its transport through the upper-ocean circulation. Using numerical simulations in which a stronger flux of respired carbon upwells and outcrops in the Southern Ocean, we find that the depleted δ13C signal is transmitted to the rest of the upper ocean through air–sea gas exchange.
Markus Adloff, Andy Ridgwell, Fanny M. Monteiro, Ian J. Parkinson, Alexander J. Dickson, Philip A. E. Pogge von Strandmann, Matthew S. Fantle, and Sarah E. Greene
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4187–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first representation of the trace metals Sr, Os, Li and Ca in a 3D Earth system model (cGENIE). The simulation of marine metal sources (weathering, hydrothermal input) and sinks (deposition) reproduces the observed concentrations and isotopic homogeneity of these metals in the modern ocean. With these new tracers, cGENIE can be used to test hypotheses linking these metal cycles and the cycling of other elements like O and C and simulate their dynamic response to external forcing.
Sebastiaan J. van de Velde, Dominik Hülse, Christopher T. Reinhard, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2713–2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2713-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Biogeochemical interactions between iron and sulfur are central to the long-term biogeochemical evolution of Earth’s oceans. Here, we introduce an iron–sulphur cycle in a model of Earth's oceans. Our analyses show that the results of the model are robust towards parameter choices and that simulated concentrations and reactions are comparable to those observed in ancient ocean analogues (anoxic lakes). Our model represents an important step forward in the study of iron–sulfur cycling.
Katherine A. Crichton, Jamie D. Wilson, Andy Ridgwell, and Paul N. Pearson
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 125–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature is a controller of metabolic processes and therefore also a controller of the ocean's biological carbon pump (BCP). We calibrate a temperature-dependent version of the BCP in the cGENIE Earth system model. Since the pre-industrial period, warming has intensified near-surface nutrient recycling, supporting production and largely offsetting stratification-induced surface nutrient limitation. But at the same time less carbon that sinks out of the surface then reaches the deep ocean.
Christopher T. Reinhard, Stephanie L. Olson, Sandra Kirtland Turner, Cecily Pälike, Yoshiki Kanzaki, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5687–5706, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5687-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide documentation and testing of new developments for the oceanic and atmospheric methane cycles in the cGENIE Earth system model. The model is designed to explore Earth's methane cycle across a wide range of timescales and scenarios, in particular assessing the mean climate state and climate perturbations in Earth's deep past. We further document the impact of atmospheric oxygen levels and ocean chemistry on fluxes of methane to the atmosphere from the ocean biosphere.
Malin Ödalen, Jonas Nycander, Andy Ridgwell, Kevin I. C. Oliver, Carlye D. Peterson, and Johan Nilsson
Biogeosciences, 17, 2219–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2219-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2219-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In glacial periods, ocean uptake of carbon is likely a key player for achieving low atmospheric CO2. In climate models, ocean biological uptake of carbon (C) and phosphorus (P) are often assumed to occur in fixed proportions.
In this study, we allow the ratio of C : P to vary and simulate, to first approximation, the complex biological changes that occur in the ocean over long timescales. We show here that, for glacial–interglacial cycles, this complexity contributes to low atmospheric CO2.
Elisa Lovecchio and Timothy M. Lenton
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1865–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1865-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1865-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the newly developed BPOP box model. BPOP is aimed at studying the impact of large-scale changes in the biological pump, i.e. the cycle of production, export and remineralization of the marine organic matter, on the nutrient and oxygen concentrations in the shelf and open ocean. This model has been developed to investigate the global consequences of the evolution of larger and heavier phytoplankton cells but can be applied to a variety of past and future case studies.
Emma W. Littleton, Anna B. Harper, Naomi E. Vaughan, Rebecca J. Oliver, Maria Carolina Duran-Rojas, and Timothy M. Lenton
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1123–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1123-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1123-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents new functionality to represent bioenergy crops and harvests in JULES, a land surface model. Such processes must be explicitly represented before the environmental effects of large-scale bioenergy production can be fully evaluated, using Earth system modelling. This new functionality allows for many types of bioenergy plants and harvesting regimes to be simulated, such as perennial grasses, short rotation coppicing, and forestry rotations.
Yoshiki Kanzaki, Bernard P. Boudreau, Sandra Kirtland Turner, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4469–4496, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4469-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides eLABS, an extension of the lattice-automaton bioturbation simulator LABS. In our new model, the benthic animal behavior interacts and changes dynamically with oxygen and organic matter concentrations and the water flows caused by benthic animals themselves, in a 2-D marine-sediment grid. The model can address the mechanisms behind empirical observations of bioturbation based on the interactions between physical, chemical and biological aspects of marine sediment.
Jamie D. Wilson, Stephen Barker, Neil R. Edwards, Philip B. Holden, and Andy Ridgwell
Biogeosciences, 16, 2923–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2923-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2923-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The remains of plankton rain down from the surface ocean to the deep ocean, acting to store CO2 in the deep ocean. We used a model of biology and ocean circulation to explore the importance of this process in different regions of the ocean. The amount of CO2 stored in the deep ocean is most sensitive to changes in the Southern Ocean. As plankton in the Southern Ocean are likely those most impacted by future climate change, the amount of CO2 they store in the deep ocean could also be affected.
Krista M. S. Kemppinen, Philip B. Holden, Neil R. Edwards, Andy Ridgwell, and Andrew D. Friend
Clim. Past, 15, 1039–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1039-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1039-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the Last Glacial Maximum atmospheric CO2 decrease with a large ensemble of parameter sets to investigate the range of possible physical and biogeochemical Earth system changes accompanying the CO2 decrease. Amongst the dominant ensemble changes is an increase in terrestrial carbon, which we attribute to a slower soil respiration rate, and the preservation of carbon by the LGM ice sheets. Further investigation into the role of terrestrial carbon is warranted.
Maria Grigoratou, Fanny M. Monteiro, Daniela N. Schmidt, Jamie D. Wilson, Ben A. Ward, and Andy Ridgwell
Biogeosciences, 16, 1469–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1469-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a novel study based on the traits of shell size, calcification and feeding behaviour of two planktonic foraminifera life stages using modelling simulations. With the model, we tested the cost and benefit of calcification and explored how the interactions of planktonic foraminifera among other plankton groups influence their biomass under different environmental conditions. Our results provide new insights into environmental controls in planktonic foraminifera ecology.
David I. Armstrong McKay and Timothy M. Lenton
Clim. Past, 14, 1515–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1515-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses statistical analyses to look for signs of declining resilience (i.e. greater sensitivity to small shocks) in the global carbon cycle and climate system across the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a global warming event 56 Myr ago driven by rapid carbon release. Our main finding is that carbon cycle resilience declined in the 1.5 Myr beforehand (a time of significant volcanic emissions), which is consistent with but not proof of a carbon release tipping point at the PETM.
Ben A. Ward, Jamie D. Wilson, Ros M. Death, Fanny M. Monteiro, Andrew Yool, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4241–4267, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4241-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4241-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A novel configuration of an Earth system model includes a diverse plankton community. The model – EcoGEnIE – is sufficiently complex to reproduce a realistic, size-structured plankton community, while at the same time retaining the efficiency to run to a global steady state (~ 10k years). The increased capabilities of EcoGEnIE will allow future exploration of ecological communities on much longer timescales than have so far been examined in global ocean models and particularly for past climate.
Tom Dunkley Jones, Hayley R. Manners, Murray Hoggett, Sandra Kirtland Turner, Thomas Westerhold, Melanie J. Leng, Richard D. Pancost, Andy Ridgwell, Laia Alegret, Rob Duller, and Stephen T. Grimes
Clim. Past, 14, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1035-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1035-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a transient global warming event associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here we document a major increase in sediment accumulation rates on a subtropical continental margin during the PETM, likely due to marked changes in hydro-climates and sediment transport. These high sedimentation rates persist through the event and may play a key role in the removal of carbon from the atmosphere by the burial of organic carbon.
Dominik Hülse, Sandra Arndt, Stuart Daines, Pierre Regnier, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2649–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2649-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2649-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 1-D analytical diagenetic model resolving organic matter (OM) cycling and the associated biogeochemical dynamics in marine sediments designed to be coupled to Earth system models (ESMs). The reaction network accounts for the most important reactions associated with OM dynamics. The coupling is described and the OM degradation rate constant is tuned. Various observations, such as pore water profiles, sediment water interface fluxes and OM content, are reproduced with good accuracy.
Malin Ödalen, Jonas Nycander, Kevin I. C. Oliver, Laurent Brodeau, and Andy Ridgwell
Biogeosciences, 15, 1367–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1367-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1367-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We conclude that different initial states for an ocean model result in different capacities for ocean carbon storage due to differences in the ocean circulation state and the origin of the carbon in the initial ocean carbon reservoir. This could explain why it is difficult to achieve comparable responses of the ocean carbon system in model inter-comparison studies in which the initial states vary between models. We show that this effect of the initial state is quantifiable.
Natalie S. Lord, Michel Crucifix, Dan J. Lunt, Mike C. Thorne, Nabila Bounceur, Harry Dowsett, Charlotte L. O'Brien, and Andy Ridgwell
Clim. Past, 13, 1539–1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present projections of long-term changes in climate, produced using a statistical emulator based on climate data from a state-of-the-art climate model. We use the emulator to model changes in temperature and precipitation over the late Pliocene (3.3–2.8 million years before present) and the next 200 thousand years. The impact of the Earth's orbit and the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on climate is assessed, and the data for the late Pliocene are compared to proxy temperature data.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Andy Ridgwell, Joy Singarayer, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 13, 1381–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1381-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1381-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first model analysis using a fully coupled dynamic atmosphere–ocean–vegetation GCM over the last 120 kyr that quantifies the net effect of vegetation on climate. This analysis shows that over the whole period the biogeophysical effect (albedo, evapotranspiration) is dominant, and that the biogeochemical impacts may have a lower possible range than typically estimated. This emphasises the temporal reliance of the balance between biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects.
Sebastian Bathiany, Bregje van der Bolt, Mark S. Williamson, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Egbert H. van Nes, and Dirk Notz
The Cryosphere, 10, 1631–1645, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that are not specific to the existence of a tipping point. While this makes an early warning impossible, it allows to estimate sea-ice variability from only short observational records or reconstructions.
Timothy M. Lenton, Peter-Paul Pichler, and Helga Weisz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 353–370, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-353-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-353-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We identify six past revolutions in energy input and material cycling in Earth and human history. We find that human energy use has now reached a magnitude comparable to the biosphere, and conclude that a prospective sustainability revolution will require scaling up new solar energy technologies and the development of much more efficient material recycling systems. Our work was inspired by recognising the connections between Earth system science and industrial ecology at the "LOOPS" workshop.
Mark S. Williamson, Sebastian Bathiany, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where the usual early warning indicators do not work. In particular, these are systems that are periodically forced, for example by the annual cycle of solar insolation. We show these indicators are good theoretically in a general setting then apply them to a specific system, that of the Arctic sea ice, which has been conjectured to be close to such a tipping point. We do not find evidence of it.
Z. A. Thomas, F. Kwasniok, C. A. Boulton, P. M. Cox, R. T. Jones, T. M. Lenton, and C. S. M. Turney
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle, we search for early warning signals of past tipping points. We detect a characteristic slower response to perturbations prior to an abrupt monsoon shift at the glacial termination; however, we do not detect these signals in the preceding shifts. Our results have important implications for detecting tipping points in palaeoclimate records outside glacial terminations.
J. D. Wilson, A. Ridgwell, and S. Barker
Biogeosciences, 12, 5547–5562, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5547-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We explore whether ocean model transport rates, in the form of a transport matrix, can be used to estimate remineralisation rates from dissolved nutrient concentrations and infer vertical fluxes of particulate organic carbon. Estimated remineralisation rates are significantly sensitive to uncertainty in the observations and the modelled circulation. The remineralisation of dissolved organic matter is an additional source of uncertainty when inferring vertical fluxes from remineralisation rates.
N. S. Jones, A. Ridgwell, and E. J. Hendy
Biogeosciences, 12, 1339–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1339-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Production of calcium carbonate by coral reefs is important in the global carbon cycle. Using a global framework we evaluate four models of reef calcification against observed values. The temperature-only model showed significant skill in reproducing coral calcification rates. The absence of any predictive power for whole reef systems highlights the importance of coral cover and the need for an ecosystem modelling approach accounting for population dynamics in terms of mortality and recruitment.
R. Death, J. L. Wadham, F. Monteiro, A. M. Le Brocq, M. Tranter, A. Ridgwell, S. Dutkiewicz, and R. Raiswell
Biogeosciences, 11, 2635–2643, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2635-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2635-2014, 2014
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
P. B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, S. A. Müller, K. I. C. Oliver, R. M. Death, and A. Ridgwell
Biogeosciences, 10, 1815–1833, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1815-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1815-2013, 2013
V. N. Livina and T. M. Lenton
The Cryosphere, 7, 275–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-275-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
FLAME 1.0: a novel approach for modelling burned area in the Brazilian biomes using the maximum entropy concept
SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios
NMH-CS 3.0: a C# programming language and Windows-system-based ecohydrological model derived from Noah-MP
A method for quantifying uncertainty in spatially interpolated meteorological data with application to daily maximum air temperature
Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling
PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data
The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)
ZEMBA v1.0: an energy and moisture balance climate model to investigate Quaternary climate
Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2
TemDeep: a self-supervised framework for temporal downscaling of atmospheric fields at arbitrary time resolutions
The ensemble consistency test: from CESM to MPAS and beyond
Presentation, calibration and testing of the DCESS II Earth system model of intermediate complexity (version 1.0)
Synthesizing global carbon–nitrogen coupling effects – the MAGICC coupled carbon–nitrogen cycle model v1.0
Historical trends and controlling factors of isoprene emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data
From weather data to river runoff: using spatiotemporal convolutional networks for discharge forecasting
A Fortran–Python interface for integrating machine learning parameterization into earth system models
ROCKE-3D 2.0: An updated general circulation model for simulating the climates of rocky planets
A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)
The DOE E3SM version 2.1: overview and assessment of the impacts of parameterized ocean submesoscales
WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions
Modeling commercial-scale CO2 storage in the gas hydrate stability zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0
DiuSST: a conceptual model of diurnal warm layers for idealized atmospheric simulations with interactive sea surface temperature
High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7
T&C-CROP: representing mechanistic crop growth with a terrestrial biosphere model (T&C, v1.5) – model formulation and validation
An updated non-intrusive, multi-scale, and flexible coupling interface in WRF 4.6.0
Monitoring and benchmarking Earth system model simulations with ESMValTool v2.12.0
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK 0.14.0.11): a Python library for research and teaching
CropSuite v1.0 – a comprehensive open-source crop suitability model considering climate variability for climate impact assessment
ICON ComIn – the ICON Community Interface (ComIn version 0.1.0, with ICON version 2024.01-01)
Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models
A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models
The real challenges for climate and weather modelling on its way to sustained exascale performance: a case study using ICON (v2.6.6)
COSP-RTTOV-1.0: Flexible radiation diagnostics to enable new science applications in model evaluation, climate change detection, and satellite mission design
Impact of spatial resolution on CMIP6-driven Mediterranean climate simulations: a focus on precipitation distribution over Italy
Improving the representation of major Indian crops in the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5) using site-scale crop data
Evaluation of CORDEX ERA5-forced NARCliM2.0 regional climate models over Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.1.2
Design, evaluation, and future projections of the NARCliM2.0 CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia regional climate ensemble
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7
Amending the algorithm of aerosol–radiation interactions in WRF-Chem (v4.4)
The very-high-resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP
GOSI9: UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configurations
Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts
Virtual Integration of Satellite and In-situ Observation Networks (VISION) v1.0: In-Situ Observations Simulator (ISO_simulator)
Climate model downscaling in central Asia: a dynamical and a neural network approach
Advanced climate model evaluation with ESMValTool v2.11.0 using parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing
Multi-year simulations at kilometre scale with the Integrated Forecasting System coupled to FESOM2.5 and NEMOv3.4
Features of mid- and high-latitude low-level clouds and their relation to strong aerosol effects in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2)
Subsurface hydrological controls on the short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate–nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (v2.1)
The Development and Application of an Arctic Sea Ice Emulator v.1
Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Igor J. M. Ferreira, Renata Moura da Veiga, Anna Bradley, Paulo Guilherme Molin, and Liana O. Anderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As fire seasons in Brazil become increasingly severe, confidently understanding the factors driving fires is more critical than ever. To address this challenge, we developed FLAME (Fire Landscape Analysis using Maximum Entropy), a new model designed to predict fires and to analyse the spatial influence of both environmental and human factors while accounting for uncertainties. By adapting the model to different regions, we can enhance fire management strategies, making FLAME a powerful tool for protecting landscapes in Brazil and beyond.
Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3081–3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.
Yong-He Liu and Zong-Liang Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3157–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
NMH-CS 3.0 is a C#-based ecohydrological model reconstructed from the WRF-Hydro/Noah-MP model by translating the Fortran code of WRF-Hydro 3.0 and integrating a parallel river routing module. It enables efficient execution on multi-core personal computers. Simulations in the Yellow River basin demonstrate its consistency with WRF-Hydro outputs, providing a reliable alternative to the original Noah-MP model.
Conor T. Doherty, Weile Wang, Hirofumi Hashimoto, and Ian G. Brosnan
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3003–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present, analyze, and validate a methodology for quantifying uncertainty in gridded meteorological data products produced by spatial interpolation. In a validation case study using daily maximum near-surface air temperature (Tmax), the method works well and produces predictive distributions with closely matching theoretical versus actual coverage levels. Application of the method reveals that the magnitude of uncertainty in interpolated Tmax varies significantly in both space and time.
Martin Juckes, Karl E. Taylor, Fabrizio Antonio, David Brayshaw, Carlo Buontempo, Jian Cao, Paul J. Durack, Michio Kawamiya, Hyungjun Kim, Tomas Lovato, Chloe Mackallah, Matthew Mizielinski, Alessandra Nuzzo, Martina Stockhause, Daniele Visioni, Jeremy Walton, Briony Turner, Eleanor O'Rourke, and Beth Dingley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used variables from Earth system models based on an assessment of data publication and download records from the largest archive of global climate projects.
Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Alexander Reedy, Matteo Turilli, Shantenu Jha, and Erica L. Ashe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2609–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
PaleoSTeHM v1.0 is a state-of-the-art framework designed to reconstruct past environmental conditions using geological data. Built on modern machine learning techniques, it efficiently handles the sparse and noisy nature of paleo-records, allowing scientists to make accurate and scalable inferences about past environmental change. By using flexible statistical models, PaleoSTeHM separates different sources of uncertainty, improving the precision of historical climate reconstructions.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, referred to here as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols and partly due to systematic model errors. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2443–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we develop and apply a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. This system is meant to advance our understanding of the ocean's role in climate predictability.
Liwen Wang, Qian Li, Qi Lv, Xuan Peng, and Wei You
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2427–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research presents a novel deep learning approach called "TemDeep" for downscaling atmospheric variables at arbitrary time resolutions based on temporal coherence. Results show that our method can accurately recover evolution details superior to other methods, reaching 53.7 % in the restoration rate. Our findings are important for advancing weather forecasting models and enabling more precise and reliable predictions to support disaster preparedness, agriculture, and sustainable development.
Teo Price-Broncucia, Allison Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Michael Duda, and Rebecca Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2349–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ensemble consistency test (ECT) and its ultrafast variant (UF-ECT) have become powerful tools in the development community for the identification of unwanted changes in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We develop a generalized setup framework to enable easy adoption of the ECT approach for other model developers and communities. This framework specifies test parameters to accurately characterize model variability and balance test sensitivity and computational cost.
Esteban Fernández Villanueva and Gary Shaffer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2161–2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe, calibrate and test the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) II model, a new, broad, adaptable and fast Earth system model. DCESS II is designed for global simulations over timescales of years to millions of years using limited computer resources like a personal computer. With its flexibility and comprehensive treatment of the global carbon cycle, DCESS II is a useful, computationally friendly tool for simulations of past climates as well as for future Earth system projections.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Tao Zhang, Cyril Morcrette, Meng Zhang, Wuyin Lin, Shaocheng Xie, Ye Liu, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Joana Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1917–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) struggle with the uncertainties associated with parameterizing subgrid physics. Machine learning (ML) algorithms offer a solution by learning the important relationships and features from high-resolution models. To incorporate ML parameterizations into ESMs, we develop a Fortran–Python interface that allows for calling Python functions within Fortran-based ESMs. Through two case studies, this interface demonstrates its feasibility, modularity, and effectiveness.
Kostas Tsigaridis, Andrew S. Ackerman, Igor Aleinov, Mark A. Chandler, Thomas L. Clune, Christopher M. Colose, Anthony D. Del Genio, Maxwell Kelley, Nancy Y. Kiang, Anthony Leboissetier, Jan P. Perlwitz, Reto A. Ruedy, Gary L. Russell, Linda E. Sohl, Michael J. Way, and Eric T. Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-925, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D, a generalized 3-dimensional model for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1413–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most severe effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor, where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a subsea CO2 injection.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1333–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The daily cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts clouds above the ocean and could influence the clustering of thunderstorms linked to extreme rainfall and hurricanes. However, daily SST variability is often poorly represented in modeling studies of how clouds cluster. We present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper-ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. Evaluating the model against observations, we show that it performs significantly better than common slab models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jordi Buckley Paules, Simone Fatichi, Bonnie Warring, and Athanasios Paschalis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1287–1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate enhancements to the process-based T&C model aimed at improving its representation of crop growth and management practices. The updated model, T&C-CROP, enables applications such as analysing the hydrological and carbon storage impacts of land use transitions (e.g. conversions between crops, forests, and pastures) and optimizing irrigation and fertilization strategies in response to climate change.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Panagiotis Adamidis, Erik Pfister, Hendryk Bockelmann, Dominik Zobel, Jens-Olaf Beismann, and Marek Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 905–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we investigated performance indicators of the climate model ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) on different compute architectures to answer the question of how to generate high-resolution climate simulations. Evidently, it is not enough to use more computing units of the conventionally used architectures; higher memory throughput is the most promising approach. More potential can be gained from single-node optimization rather than simply increasing the number of compute nodes.
Jonah K. Shaw, Dustin J. Swales, Sergio DeSouza-Machado, David D. Turner, Jennifer E. Kay, and David P. Schneider
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-169, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Satellites have observed earth's emission of infrared radiation since the 1970s. Because infrared wavelengths interact with the atmosphere in distinct ways, these observations contain information about the earth and atmosphere. We present a tool that runs alongside global climate models and produces output that can be directly compared with satellite measurements of infrared radiation. We then use this tool for climate model evaluation, climate change detection, and satellite mission design.
Maria Vittoria Struglia, Alessandro Anav, Marta Antonelli, Sandro Calmanti, Franco Catalano, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Emanuela Pichelli, and Giovanna Pisacane
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-387, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of downscaling global climate projections for the Mediterranean and Italian regions aiming to produce high-resolution climate information for the assessment of climate change signals, focusing on extreme events. A general warming is foreseen by the end of century with a mean precipitation reduction accompanied, over Italian Peninsula, by a strong increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation events, particularly relevant for the high emissions scenario during autumn
Kangari Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 763–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study aimed to improve the representation of wheat and rice in a land model for the Indian region. The modified model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, and carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific crop parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jason P. Evans, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Yue Li, and Matthew L. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 703–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the skill in simulating the Australian climate of some of the latest generation of regional climate models. We show when and where the models simulate this climate with high skill versus model limitations. We show how new models perform relative to the previous-generation models, assessing how model design features may underlie key performance improvements. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Stephen White, Yue Li, Moutassem El Rafei, Rishav Goyal, Matthew L. Riley, and Jyothi Lingala
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce new climate models that simulate Australia’s future climate at regional scales, including at an unprecedented resolution of 4 km for 1950–2100. We describe the model design process used to create these new climate models. We show how the new models perform relative to previous-generation models and compare their climate projections. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide climate model design and the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Gabi Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Dann Mitchell, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Piotr Wolski, Wenxia Zhang, and Vivek K. Arora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations of the response to human and natural influences together, natural climate influences alone, and greenhouse gases alone, among others, are key to quantifying human influence on the climate. The last set of such coordinated simulations underpinned key findings in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Here we propose a new set of such simulations to be used in the next generation of attribution studies, and to underpin the next IPCC report.
Jiawang Feng, Chun Zhao, Qiuyan Du, Zining Yang, and Chen Jin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 585–603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved the calculation of how aerosols in the air interact with radiation in WRF-Chem. The original model used a simplified method, but we developed a more accurate approach. We found that this method significantly changes the properties of the estimated aerosols and their effects on radiation, especially for dust aerosols. It also impacts the simulated weather conditions. Our work highlights the importance of correctly representing aerosol–radiation interactions in models.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Observational data and modelling capabilities have expanded in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing, and handling a large amount of data. This work describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the VISION toolkit, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Jörg Benke, Ruth Comer, Birgit Hassler, Emma Hogan, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Francesco Nattino, Patrick Peglar, Valeriu Predoi, Stef Smeets, Stephen Worsley, Martin Yeo, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. Here, we describe recent significant improvements of ESMValTool’s computational efficiency including parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing. Evaluations with the enhanced version of ESMValTool are faster, use less computational resources, and can handle input data larger than the available memory.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Hui Wan, Abhishek Yenpure, Berk Geveci, Richard C. Easter, Philip J. Rasch, Kai Zhang, and Xubin Zeng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4020, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In E3SMv2 and many other global climate models, the simulated anthropogenic aerosol influence on the Earth's energy balance is sensitive to the presence of clouds with very low droplet number concentrations. Numerical experiments conducted in this study suggest that mid- and high-latitude low-level stratus occurring under weak turbulence is an important cloud regime for understanding the causes of very low cloud droplet number concentrations in global climate simulations.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Sian Megan Chilcott and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-203, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are expensive to run and often underestimate how sensitive Arctic sea ice is to climate change. To address this, we developed a simple model that emulates the response of sea ice to global warming. We find the remaining carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that will avoid a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is lower than previous estimates of 821 Gigatonnes of CO2. Our model also provides insights into the future of winter sea ice, examining a larger ensemble than previously possible.
Cited articles
Amiotte-Suchet, P., Probst J. L.,, and Ludwig, W.: Worldwide distribution of continental rock lithology: Implications for the atmospheric/soil CO2 uptake by continental weathering and alkalinity river transport to the oceans, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 17, 1038–1051, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GB001891, 2003.
Amiotte Suchet, P. and Probst, J. L.: A global model for present-day atmospheric/soil CO2 consumption by chemical erosion of continental rocks (GEM-CO2), Tellus B, 47, 273–280, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0889.47.issue1.23.x, 1995.
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Efficient identification of ocean thermodynamics in a physical/biogeochemical ocean model with an iterative Importance Sampling method, Ocean Modell., 33, 205–215, 2010.
Archer, D.: Modeling the calcite Lysocline, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 17037–17050, https://doi.org/10.1029/91JC01812, 1991.
Archer, D.: Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time, J. Geophys. Res. (Oceans), 110, 9–14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002625, 2005.
Archer, D. and Ganopolski, A.: A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next glaciation, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 6, 5003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GC000891, 2005.
Archer, D., Kheshgi, H., and Maier-Reimer, E.: Multiple timescales for neutralization of fossil fuel CO2, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 405–408, https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL00168, 1997.
Archer, D., Eby, M., Brovkin, V., Ridgwell, A., Cao, L., Mikolajewicz, U., Caldeira, K., Matsumoto, K., Munhoven, G., Montenegro, A., and Tokos, K.: Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 37, 117–134, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.031208.100206, 2009.
Beaulieu, E., Goddéris, Y., Labat, D., Roelandt, C., Oliva, P., and Guerrero, B.: Impact of atmospheric CO2 levels on continental silicate weathering, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 11, Q07007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GC003078, 2010.
Beaulieu, E., Goddéris, Y., Donnadieu, Y., Labat, D., and Roelandt, C.: High sensitivity of the continental-weathering carbon dioxide sink to future climate change, Nature Climate Change, 2, 346–349, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1419, 2012.
Bergman, N. M., Lenton, T. M., and Watson, A. J.: COPSE: A new model of biogeochemical cycling over phanerozoic time, Am. J. Sci., 304, 397–437, 2004.
Berner, R. A.: A model for atmospheric CO2 over phanerozoic time, Am. J. Sci., 291, 339–376, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.249.4975.1382, 1991.
Berner, R. A., Lasaga, A. C., and Garrels, R. M.: The Carbonate-Silicate Geochemical Cycle and its Effect on Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide over the past 100 Million Years, Am. J. Sci., 283, 641–683, 1983.
Berner, R. A.: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over Phanerozoic time, Science, 249, 1382–1386, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.249.4975.1382, 1990.
Berner, R. A.: GEOCARB II; a revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time, Am. J. Sci., 294, 56–91, 1994.
Berner, R. A. and Kothavala, Z.: Geocarb III: A Revised Model of Atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic Time, Am. J. Sci., 301, 182–204, https://doi.org/10.2475/ajs.301.2.182, 2001.
Bluth, G. J. S. and Kump, L. R.: Lithologic and climatologic controls of river chemistry, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 58, 2341–2359, https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-7037(94)90015-9, 1994.
Brady, P. V.: The effect of silicate weathering on global temperature and atmospheric CO2, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 18101–18106, https://doi.org/10.1029/91JB01898, 1991.
Caldeira, K. and Kasting, J. F.: The life span of the biosphere revisited, Nature, 360, 721–723, https://doi.org/10.1038/360721a0, 1992.
Cao, L., Eby, M., Ridgwell, A., Caldeira, K., Archer, D., Ishida, A., Joos, F., Matsumoto, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Mouchet, A., Orr, J. C., Plattner, G.-K., Schlitzer, R., Tokos, K., Totterdell, I., Tschumi, T., Yamanaka, Y., and Yool, A.: The role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, Biogeosciences, 6, 375–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-375-2009, 2009.
Cirbus Sloan, L., Bluth, G. J. S., and Filippelli, G. M.: A comparison of spatially resolved and global mean reconstructions of continental denudation under ice-free and present conditions, Paleoceanography, 12, 147–160, https://doi.org/10.1029/96PA03070, 1997.
Colbourn, G.: Weathering effects on the carbon cycle in an Earth System Model, Ph.D. thesis, University of East Anglia, https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/34242, 2011.
Dessert, C., Dupré, B., Gaillardet, J., François, L. M., and Allègre, C. J.: Basalt weathering laws and the impact of basalt weathering on the global carbon cycle, Chem. Geol., 202, 257–273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2002.10.001, 2003.
Donnadieu, Y., Goddéris, Y., Ramstein, G., Nédélec, A., and Meert, J.: A `snowball Earth' climate triggered by continental break-up through changes in runoff, Nature, 428, 303–306, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02408, 2004.
Donnadieu, Y., Goddéris, Y., Pierrehumbert, R., Dromart, G., Fluteau, F., and Jacob, R.: A GEOCLIM simulation of climatic and biogeochemical consequences of Pangea breakup, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 7, 11019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GC001278, 2006.
Donnadieu, Y., Goddéris, Y., and Bouttes, N.: Exploring the climatic impact of the continental vegetation on the Mezosoic atmospheric CO2 and climate history, Clim. Past, 5, 85–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-85-2009, 2009.
Edwards, N. R. and Marsh, R.: Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model, Clim. Dynam., 24, 415–433, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0508-8, 2005.
Edwards, N. R., Cameron, D., and Rougier, J.: Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model, Clim. Dynam., 37, 1469–1482, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0921-0, 2010.
Fekete, B. M., Vorosmarty, C. J., and Grabs, W.: Global, Composite Runoff Fields Based on Observed River Discharge and Simulated Water Balances, Tech. rep., Global Runoff Data Center, 2000.
Fekete, B. M., Vörösmarty, C. J., and Grabs, W.: High-resolution fields of global runoff combining observed river discharge and simulated water balances, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 1042–1052, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GB001254, 2002.
Foster, G. L. and Vance, D.: Negligible glacial-interglacial variation in continental chemical weathering rates, Nature, 444, 918–921, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05365, 2006.
Gibbs, M. T. and Kump, L. R.: Global chemical erosion during the last glacial maximum and the present: Sensitivity to changes in lithology and hydrology, Paleoceanography, 9, 529–544, https://doi.org/10.1029/94PA01009, 1994.
Gibbs, M. T., Bluth, G. J. S., Fawcett, P. J., and Kump, L. R.: Global chemical erosion over the last 250My; variations due to changes in paleogeography, paleoclimate, and paleogeology, Am. J. Sci., 299, 611–651, https://doi.org/10.2475/ajs.299.7-9.611, 1999.
Godderis, Y., Donnadieu, Y., de Vargas, C., Pierrehumbert, R. T., Dromart, G., and van de Schootbrugge, B.: Causal or casual link between the rise of nannoplankton calcification and a tectonically-driven massive decrease in Late Triassic atmospheric CO2?, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 267, 247–255, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2007.11.051, 2008.
Goodwin, P. and Ridgwell, A.: Ocean-atmosphere partitioning of anthropogenic carbon dioxide on multimillennial timescales, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB2014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003449, 2010.
Hargreaves, J. C., Annan, J. D., Edwards, N. R., and Marsh, R.: An efficient climate forecasting method using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the ensemble Kalman filter, Clim. Dynam., 23, 745–760, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0471-4, 2004.
Harmon, R. S., White, W. B., Drake, J. J., and Hess, J. W.: Regional Hydrochemistry of North American Carbonate Terrains, Water Resour. Res., 11, 963–967, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR011i006p00963, 1975.
Hartmann, J., Jansen, N., Dürr, H. H., Kempe, S., and Köhler, P.: Global CO2-consumption by chemical weathering: What is the contribution of highly active weathering regions?, Global Planet. Change, 69, 185–194, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.07.007, 2009.
Hellmann, R., Daval, D., and Tisserand, D.: The dependence of albite feldspar dissolution kinetics on fluid saturation state at acid and basic pH: Progress towards a universal relation, Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 342, 676–684, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2009.06.004, 2010.
Hilley, G. E. and Porder, S.: A framework for predicting global silicate weathering and CO2 drawdown rates over geologic time-scales, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 105, 16855–16859, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0801462105, 2008.
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Oliver, K. I. C., Lenton, T. M., and Wilkinson, R. D.: A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1, Clim. Dynam., 35, 785–806, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8, 2009.
Lasaga, A. C. and Lüttge, A.: Variation of Crystal Dissolution Rate Based on a Dissolution Stepwave Model, Science, 291, 2400–2404, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1058173, 2001.
Le Hir, G., Donnadieu, Y., Godde, Y., Meyer-Berthaud, B., Ramstein, G., and Blakey, R. C.: The climate change caused by the land plant invasion in the Devonian, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 310, 203–212, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.08.042, 2011.
Lenton, T. M. and Britton, C.: Enhanced carbonate and silicate weathering accelerates recovery from fossil fuel CO2 perturbations, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, 3009–3021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002678, 2006.
Lenton, T. M. and von Bloh, W.: Biotic feedback extends the life span of the biosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1715–1718, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012198, 2001.
Lenton, T. M., Williamson, M. S., Edwards, N. R., Marsh, R., Price, A. R., Ridgwell, A. J., Shepherd, J. G., and Cox, S. J.: Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate change in an efficient Earth system model, Clim. Dynam., 26, 687–711, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0109-9, 2006.
Lenton, T. M., Marsh, R., Price, A. R., Lunt, D. J., Aksenov, Y., Annan, J. D., Cooper-Chadwick, T., Cox, S. J., Edwards, N. R., Goswami, S., Hargreaves, J. C., Harris, P. P., Jiao, Z., Livina, V. N., Payne, A. J., Rutt, I. C., Shepherd, J. G., Valdes, P. J., Williams, G., Williamson, M. S., and Yool, A.: Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework, Clim. Dynam., 29, 591–613, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0254-9, 2007.
Lenton, T. M., Myerscough, R. J., Marsh, R., Livina, V. N., Price, A. R., Cox, S. J., and The Genie Team}: {Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system, Royal Society of London Philosophical Transactions Series A, 367, 871–884, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0171, 2009.
Lovelock, J. E. and Watson, A. J.: The regulation of carbon dioxide and climate: Gaia or geochemistry, Planet. Space Sci., 30, 795–802, https://doi.org/10.1016/0032-0633(82)90112-X, 1982.
Lovelock, J. E. and Whitfield, M.: Life span of the biosphere, Nature, 296, 561–563, https://doi.org/10.1038/296561a0, 1982.
Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J.-M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., and Stocker, T. F.: High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present, Nature, 453, 379–382, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06949, 2008.
Lüttge, A.: Crystal dissolution kinetics and Gibbs free energy, Journal of Electron Spectroscopy and Related Phenomena, 150, 248–259, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.elspec.2005.06.007, 2006.
Marsh, R., Müller, S. A., Yool, A., and Edwards, N. R.: Incorporation of the C-GOLDSTEIN efficient climate model into the GENIE framework: "eb_go_gs" configurations of GENIE, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 957–992, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-957-2011, 2011.
Montenegro, A., Brovkin, V., Eby, M., Archer, D., and Weaver, A. J.: Long term fate of anthropogenic carbon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 19707–19711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030905, 2007.
Munhoven, G.: Glacial interglacial changes of continental weathering: estimates of the related CO2 and HCO3- flux variations and their uncertainties, Global Planet. Change, 33, 155–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00068-1, 2002.
Mysak, L. A.: Glacial Inceptions: Past and Future, Atmosphere-Ocean, 49, 317–341, https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.460303, 2008.
New, M., Hulme, M., and Jones, P.: Representing Twentieth-Century Space-Time Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961-90 Mean Monthly Terrestrial Climatology, J. Climate, 12, 829–856, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0829:RTCSTC>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Oliva, P., Viers, J., and Dupré, B.: Chemical weathering in granitic environments, Chem. Geol., 202, 225–256, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2002.08.001, 2003.
Pagani, M., Caldeira, K., Archer, D., and Zachos, J. C.: An Ancient Carbon Mystery, Science, 314, 1556–1557, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1136110, 2006.
Panchuk, K., Ridgwell, A., and Kump, L. R.: Sedimentary response to Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum carbon release: A model-data comparison, Geology, 36, 315–318, 2008.
Price, A., Voutchkov, I., Pound, G., Edwards, N., Lenton, T., and Cox, S.: Multiobjective Tuning of Grid-Enabled Earth System Models Using a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II), e-Science and Grid Computing, International Conference on, 0, 117, https://doi.org/10.1109/E-SCIENCE.2006.103, 2006.
Price, A. R., Xue, G., Yool, A., Lunt, D. J., Valdes, P. J., Lenton, T. M., Wason, J. L., Pound, G. E., and Cox, S. J.: Optimization of integrated Earth System Model components using Grid-enabled data management and computation: Research Articles, Concurr. Comput.: Pract. Exper., 19, 153–165, https://doi.org/10.1002/cpe.v19:2, 2007.
Ridgwell, A.: Interpreting transient carbonate compensation depth changes by marine sediment core modeling, Paleoceanography, 22, PA4102–4111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006PA001372, 2007.
Ridgwell, A. and Edwards, U.: Geological Carbon Sinks, chap. 6, 74–97, CAB International, https://doi.org/10.1079/9781845931896.0074, 2007.
Ridgwell, A. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Regulation of atmospheric CO2 by deep-sea sediments in an Earth system model, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB2008–2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002764, 2007.
Ridgwell, A., Hargreaves, J. C., Edwards, N. R., Annan, J. D., Lenton, T. M., Marsh, R., Yool, A., and Watson, A.: Marine geochemical data assimilation in an efficient Earth System Model of global biogeochemical cycling, Biogeosciences, 4, 87–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-4-87-2007, 2007.
Roelandt, C., Godderis, Y., Bonnet, M.-P., and Sondag, F.: Coupled modeling of biospheric and chemical weathering processes at the continental scale, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003420, 2010.
Schwartzman, D. W. and Volk, T.: Biotic enhancement of weathering and the habitability of Earth, Nature, 340, 457–460, https://doi.org/10.1038/340457a0, 1989.
Schwartzman, D. W. and Volk, T.: Biotic enhancement of weathering and surface temperatures on earth since the origin of life, Global Planet. Change, 4, 357–371, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(91)90002-E, 1991.
Sharp, M., Parkes, J., Cragg, B., Fairchild, I. J., Lamb, H., and Tranter, M.: Widespread bacterial populations at glacier beds and their relationship to rock weathering and carbon cycling, Geology, 27, 107–110, https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1999)027<0107:WBPAGB>2.3.CO;2, 1999.
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x, 2003.
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Alley, R., Berntsen, T., Bindoff, N., Chen, Z., Chidthaisong, A., Gregory, J., Hegerl, G., Heimann, M., Hewitson, B., Hoskins, B., Joos, F., Jouzel, J., Kattsov, V., Lohmann, U., Matsuno, T., Molina, M., Nicholls, N., Overpeck, J., Raga, G., Ramaswamy, V., Ren, J., Rusticucci, M., Somerville, R., Stocker, T., Whetton, P., Wood, R., and Wratt, D.: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Tech. rep., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007.
Sundquist, E.: Steady- and non-steady-state carbonate-silicate controls on atmospheric CO2, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 10, 283–296, https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-3791(91)90026-Q, 1991.
Vörösmarty, C. J., Fekete, B. M., Meybeck, M., and Lammers, R. B.: Global system of rivers: Its role in organizing continental land mass and defining land-to-ocean linkages, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 14, 599–622, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GB900092, 2000a.
Vörösmarty, C. J., Fekete, B. M., Meybeck, M., and Lammers, R. B.: Geomorphometric attributes of the global system of rivers at 30-minute spatial resolution, J. Hydrol., 237, 17–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00282-1, 2000b.
Walker, J. C. G., Hays, P. B., and Kasting, J. F.: A negative feedback mechanism for the long-term stabilization of the earth's surface temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 9776–9782, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC086iC10p09776, 1981.
Weaver, A. J., Eby, M., Wiebe, E. C., Bitz, C. M., Duffy, P. B., Ewen, T. L., Fanning, A. F., Holland, M. M., McFadyen, A., Matthews, H. D., Meissner, K. J., Saenko, O., Schmittner, A., Wang, H., and Yoshimori, M.: The UVic Earth System Climate Model: Model Description, Climatology, and Application to Past, Present and Future Climates, Atmosphere-Ocean, 39, 1–68, 2001.
West, A. J., Galy, A., and Bickle, M.: Tectonic and climatic controls on silicate weathering, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 235, 211–228, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2005.03.020, 2005.
Williamson, M., Lenton, T., Shepherd, J., and Edwards, N.: An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for Earth system modelling, Ecol. Model., 198, 362–374, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.05.027, 2006.
Zalasiewicz, J., Williams, M., Smith, A., Barry, T., Coe, A., Bown, P., Brenchley, P., Cantrill, D., Gale, A., Gibbard, P., Gregory, F., Hounslow, M., Kerr, A., Pearson, P., Knox, R., Powell, J., Waters, C., Marshall, J., Oates, M., Rawson, P., and Stone, P.: Are we now living in the Anthropocene?, GSA Today, 4–8, https://doi.org/10.1130/GSAT01802A.1, 2008.
