Articles | Volume 14, issue 11
Model evaluation paper
12 Nov 2021
Model evaluation paper |  | 12 Nov 2021

Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)

Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, William J. Merryfield, George J. Boer, Viatsheslav V. Kharin, Woo-Sung Lee, Christian Seiler, and James R. Christian

Related authors

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis
Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Didier Swingedouw, Leon Hermanson, Panos Athanasiadis, Rosie Eade, Marion Devilliers, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Nick Dunstone, An-Chi Ho, William Merryfield, Juliette Mignot, Dario Nicolì, Margarida Samsó, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Xian Wu, and Stephen Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 501–525,,, 2024
Short summary
Improving permafrost physics in the coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (v.3.6.2) and Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (v.2.1) (CLASS-CTEM)
Joe R. Melton, Diana L. Verseghy, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, and Stephan Gruber
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4443–4467,,, 2019
Short summary
Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system
Paul J. Kushner, Lawrence R. Mudryk, William Merryfield, Jaison T. Ambadan, Aaron Berg, Adéline Bichet, Ross Brown, Chris Derksen, Stephen J. Déry, Arlan Dirkson, Greg Flato, Christopher G. Fletcher, John C. Fyfe, Nathan Gillett, Christian Haas, Stephen Howell, Frédéric Laliberté, Kelly McCusker, Michael Sigmond, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Neil F. Tandon, Chad Thackeray, Bruno Tremblay, and Francis W. Zwiers
The Cryosphere, 12, 1137–1156,,, 2018
Short summary
Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections
Lawrence R. Mudryk, Chris Derksen, Stephen Howell, Fred Laliberté, Chad Thackeray, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Vincent Vionnet, Paul J. Kushner, and Ross Brown
The Cryosphere, 12, 1157–1176,,, 2018
Short summary
Tiling soil textures for terrestrial ecosystem modelling via clustering analysis: a case study with CLASS-CTEM (version 2.1)
Joe R. Melton, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, and Kelly E. McCusker
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2761–2783,,, 2017
Short summary

Related subject area

Climate and Earth system modeling
The regional climate–chemistry–ecology coupling model RegCM-Chem (v4.6)–YIBs (v1.0): development and application
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Beiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3259–3277,,, 2024
Short summary
An overview of cloud–radiation denial experiments for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1
Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, William K. M. Lau, Kyu-Myong Kim, Brian Medeiros, Brian J. Soden, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Bosong Zhang, and Balwinder Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3111–3135,,, 2024
Short summary
The computational and energy cost of simulation and storage for climate science: lessons from CMIP6
Mario C. Acosta, Sergi Palomas, Stella V. Paronuzzi Ticco, Gladys Utrera, Joachim Biercamp, Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere, Reinhard Budich, Miguel Castrillo, Arnaud Caubel, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Italo Epicoco, Uwe Fladrich, Sylvie Joussaume, Alok Kumar Gupta, Bryan Lawrence, Philippe Le Sager, Grenville Lister, Marie-Pierre Moine, Jean-Christophe Rioual, Sophie Valcke, Niki Zadeh, and Venkatramani Balaji
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3081–3098,,, 2024
Short summary
Subgrid-scale variability of cloud ice in the ICON-AES 1.3.00
Sabine Doktorowski, Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Quaas, Marc Salzmann, and Odran Sourdeval
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3099–3110,,, 2024
Short summary
INFERNO-peat v1.0.0: a representation of northern high-latitude peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO global fire model
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Adler, R. F., Huffman, G., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., and Arkin, P.: The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, 2003. a
Arora, V. K.: Simulating energy and carbon fluxes over winter wheat using coupled land surface and terrestrial ecosystem models, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 118, 21–47, 2003. a
Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: A representation of variable root distribution in dynamic vegetation models, Earth Interact., 7, 1–19, 2003. a
Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: A parameterization of leaf phenology for the terrestrial ecosystem component of climate models, Glob. Change Biol., 11, 39–59, 2005. a, b
Banzon, V., Smith, T. M., Chin, T. M., Liu, C., and Hankins, W.: A long-term record of blended satellite and in situ sea-surface temperature for climate monitoring, modeling and environmental studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 165–176,, 2016. a
Short summary
CanESM5 decadal predictions that started from observed climate states represent the observed evolution of upper-ocean temperatures, surface climate, and the carbon cycle better than ones not started from observed climate states for several years into the forecast. This is due both to better representations of climate internal variability and to corrections of the model response to external forcing including changes in GHG emissions and aerosols.