Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)

Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Merryfield, William J.; Boer, George J.; Kharin, Viatsheslav V.; Lee, Woo-Sung; Seiler, Christian; Christian, James R.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6863-2021

Articles | Volume 14, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6863-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

The Canadian Earth System Model version 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6863-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 14, issue 11

Model evaluation paper

|

12 Nov 2021

Model evaluation paper |

| 12 Nov 2021

Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)

Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, William J. Merryfield, George J. Boer, Viatsheslav V. Kharin, Woo-Sung Lee, Christian Seiler, and James R. Christian

Data sets

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppA-hindcast R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Lee, W. J. Merryfield, N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3557

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppA-assim, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Lee, W. J. Merryfield, N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3556

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppC-forecast-addAgung R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Lee, W. J. Merryfield, N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3570

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppC-forecast-addElChichon R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Lee, W. J. Merryfield, N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3571

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppC-forecast-addPinatubo R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Lee, W. J. Merryfield, N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3572

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppC-forecast-noAgung R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Lee, W. J. Merryfield, N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3573

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppC-forecast-noElChichon R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Lee, W. J. Merryfield, N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3574

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppC-forecast-noPinatubo R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Lee, W. J. Merryfield, N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3575

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3610

Model code and software

The Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM), v5.0.3. N. C. Swart, J. Cole, S. Kharin, M. S. J. Lazare, N. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. Christian, S. Hanna, Y. Jiao, W. Lee, F. Majaess, O. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, and B. Winter https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3251114

Short summary

CanESM5 decadal predictions that started from observed climate states represent the observed evolution of upper-ocean temperatures, surface climate, and the carbon cycle better than ones not started from observed climate states for several years into the forecast. This is due both to better representations of climate internal variability and to corrections of the model response to external forcing including changes in GHG emissions and aerosols.