Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
Model description paper
09 Jul 2021
Model description paper |  | 09 Jul 2021

Recalibrating decadal climate predictions – what is an adequate model for the drift?

Alexander Pasternack, Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

Related authors

Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0)
Alexander Pasternack, Jonas Bhend, Mark A. Liniger, Henning W. Rust, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 351–368,,, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Climate and Earth system modeling
Parallel SnowModel (v1.0): a parallel implementation of a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)
Ross Mower, Ethan D. Gutmann, Glen E. Liston, Jessica Lundquist, and Soren Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4135–4154,,, 2024
Short summary
LB-SCAM: a learning-based method for efficient large-scale sensitivity analysis and tuning of the Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM)
Jiaxu Guo, Juepeng Zheng, Yidan Xu, Haohuan Fu, Wei Xue, Lanning Wang, Lin Gan, Ping Gao, Wubing Wan, Xianwei Wu, Zhitao Zhang, Liang Hu, Gaochao Xu, and Xilong Che
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3975–3992,,, 2024
Short summary
Quantifying the impact of SST feedback frequency on Madden–Julian oscillation simulations
Yung-Yao Lan, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, and Wan-Ling Tseng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3897–3918,,, 2024
Short summary
Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3
Jiwoo Lee, Peter J. Gleckler, Min-Seop Ahn, Ana Ordonez, Paul A. Ullrich, Kenneth R. Sperber, Karl E. Taylor, Yann Y. Planton, Eric Guilyardi, Paul Durack, Celine Bonfils, Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Bo Dong, Charles Doutriaux, Chengzhu Zhang, Tom Vo, Jason Boutte, Michael F. Wehner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Daehyun Kim, Zeyu Xue, Andrew T. Wittenberg, and John Krasting
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3919–3948,,, 2024
Short summary
A revised model of global silicate weathering considering the influence of vegetation cover on erosion rate
Haoyue Zuo, Yonggang Liu, Gaojun Li, Zhifang Xu, Liang Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, and Yongyun Hu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3949–3974,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Anderson, J. L.: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations, J. Climate, 9, 1518–1530, 1996. a
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F., and Jones, P. D.: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D12106,, 2006. a
Bühlmann, P. and Yu, B.: Boosting with the L 2 loss: regression and classification, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 98, 324–339, 2003. a
Bühlmann, P. and Hothorn, T.: Boosting algorithms: Regularization, prediction and model fitting, Stat. Sci., 22, 477–505, 2007. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, I., Biblot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Greer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Holm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Kohler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Mong-Sanz, B. M., Morcette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thepaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597,, 2011. a
Short summary
Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.