Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021

Model description paper 09 Jul 2021

Model description paper | 09 Jul 2021

Recalibrating decadal climate predictions – what is an adequate model for the drift?

Alexander Pasternack et al.

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Latest update: 24 Oct 2021
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Short summary
Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.