Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
Model description paper
 | 
09 Jul 2021
Model description paper |  | 09 Jul 2021

Recalibrating decadal climate predictions – what is an adequate model for the drift?

Alexander Pasternack, Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

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Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
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Short summary
Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.
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