Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021

Model description paper 09 Jul 2021

Model description paper | 09 Jul 2021

Recalibrating decadal climate predictions – what is an adequate model for the drift?

Alexander Pasternack et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Alexander Pasternack on behalf of the Authors (12 Jan 2021)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (27 Jan 2021) by Ignacio Pisso
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (08 Feb 2021)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (24 Feb 2021)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (25 Feb 2021) by Ignacio Pisso
AR by Alexander Pasternack on behalf of the Authors (01 Mar 2021)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (02 Jun 2021) by Ignacio Pisso
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Short summary
Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.