Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3121-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3121-2021
Development and technical paper
 | 
01 Jun 2021
Development and technical paper |  | 01 Jun 2021

Reproducing complex simulations of economic impacts of climate change with lower-cost emulators

Jun'ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Naota Hanasaki, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yasushi Honda, Toshichika Iizumi, Chan Park, Makoto Tamura, and Yasuaki Hijioka

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Cited articles

Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., and Miguel, E.: Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production, Nature, 527, 235, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725, 2015. 
Castelletti, A., Galelli, S., Ratto, M., Soncini-Sessa, R., and Young, P. C.: A general framework for Dynamic Emulation Modelling in environmental problems, Environ. Modell. Softw., 34, 5–18, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.01.002, 2012. 
Chollet, F.: Keras, https://github.com/fchollet/keras (last access: 21 July 2019), 2015. 
Cybenko, G.: Approximation by superpositions of a sigmoidal function, Mathematics of Control, Signals and Systems, 2, 303–314, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02551274, 1989. 
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To simplify calculating economic impacts of climate change, statistical methods called emulators are developed and evaluated. There are trade-offs between model complexity and emulation performance. Aggregated economic impacts can be approximated by relatively simple emulators, but complex emulators are necessary to accommodate finer-scale economic impacts.
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