Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-131
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-131
Submitted as: model evaluation paper
 | 
13 Jul 2021
Submitted as: model evaluation paper |  | 13 Jul 2021
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal GMD but the revision was not accepted.

Systematic global evaluation of accuracy of seasonal climateforecasts for monthly precipitation of JMA/MRI-CPS2 bycomparing with a statistical system using climate indices

Yuji Masutomi, Toshichika Iizumi, Key Oyoshi, Nobuyuki Kayaba, Wonsik Kim, Takahiro Takimoto, and Yoshimitsu Masaki

Abstract. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the monthly precipitation forecasts of JMA/MRI-CPS2, a global dynamical seasonal climate forecast (Dyn-SCF) system operated in the Japan Meteorological Agency, by comparing them with the forecasts of a statistical SCF (St-SCF) system using climate indices systematically and globally. Accordingly, we developed a new global St-SCF system using 18 climate indices and compared the monthly precipitation of this system with those of JMA/MRI-CPS2. Consequently, it was found that JMA/MRI-CPS2 forecasts are superior to St-SCFs around the equator (10° S–10° N) even for six-month lead forecasts. For one-month lead forecasts, the accuracy of JMA/MRI-CPS2 forecasts was higher than that of St-SCFs when viewed globally. In contrast, for forecasts made two months or longer in advance, St-SCFs had an advantage in global forecasts. In addition to evaluating the accuracy of JMA/MRI-CPS2 forecasts, the slow dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere, not reproduced by the JMA/MRI-CPS2 system, were determined by comparing the evaluations, and it was concluded that this could contribute to improving Dyn-SCF systems.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Yuji Masutomi, Toshichika Iizumi, Key Oyoshi, Nobuyuki Kayaba, Wonsik Kim, Takahiro Takimoto, and Yoshimitsu Masaki

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2021-131', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Oct 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yuji Masutomi, 10 Dec 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Yuji Masutomi, 10 Dec 2021
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Yuji Masutomi, 10 Dec 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2021-131', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Oct 2021
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Yuji Masutomi, 10 Dec 2021

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2021-131', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Oct 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yuji Masutomi, 10 Dec 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Yuji Masutomi, 10 Dec 2021
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Yuji Masutomi, 10 Dec 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2021-131', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Oct 2021
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Yuji Masutomi, 10 Dec 2021
Yuji Masutomi, Toshichika Iizumi, Key Oyoshi, Nobuyuki Kayaba, Wonsik Kim, Takahiro Takimoto, and Yoshimitsu Masaki
Yuji Masutomi, Toshichika Iizumi, Key Oyoshi, Nobuyuki Kayaba, Wonsik Kim, Takahiro Takimoto, and Yoshimitsu Masaki

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Latest update: 24 May 2024
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Short summary
The accuracy of seasonal climate forecasts for monthly precipitation of JMA/MRI-CPS2, a dynamical seasonal climate forecast (SCF) system, is higher than that of statistical SCF (St-SCF) system using climate indices around the equator (10° S–10° N) even for six-month lead forecasts. On a global scale, the forecast accuracy of JMA/MRI-CPS2 is higher for one-month lead forecasts; however, St-SCFs were more accurate for forecasts more than two months in advance.