Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| 
16 Mar 2018
Model experiment description paper |
| 16 Mar 2018
| 16 Mar 2018
Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi)
Neal Butchart
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter, UK
James A. Anstey
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma),
Victoria, Canada
Kevin Hamilton
International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), Honolulu, USA
Scott Osprey
National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS),
University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Charles McLandress
University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma),
Victoria, Canada
Andrew C. Bushell
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Yoshio Kawatani
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC),
Yokohama, Japan
Young-Ha Kim
Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
Francois Lott
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Paris, France
John Scinocca
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma),
Victoria, Canada
Timothy N. Stockdale
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF),
Reading, UK
Martin Andrews
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter, UK
Omar Bellprat
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Peter Braesicke
Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Chiara Cagnazzo
Istituto di Scienze Dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (ISAC-CNR), Rome, Italy
Chih-Chieh Chen
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, USA
Hye-Yeong Chun
Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
Mikhail Dobrynin
Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Rolando R. Garcia
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, USA
Javier Garcia-Serrano
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Lesley J. Gray
National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS),
University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Laura Holt
NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA), Boulder, USA
Tobias Kerzenmacher
Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Hiroaki Naoe
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
Holger Pohlmann
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI), Hamburg, Germany
Jadwiga H. Richter
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, USA
Adam A. Scaife
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter, UK
University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Verena Schenzinger
Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria
Federico Serva
Istituto di Scienze Dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (ISAC-CNR), Rome, Italy
Università degli Studi di Napoli “Parthenope”, Naples, Italy
Stefan Versick
Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Shingo Watanabe
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC),
Yokohama, Japan
Kohei Yoshida
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
Seiji Yukimoto
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
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Ji-Hee Yoo and Hye-Yeong Chun
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Mari R. Tye, Ming Ge, Jadwiga H. Richter, Ethan D. Gutmann, Allyson Rugg, Cindy L. Bruyère, Sue Ellen Haupt, Flavio Lehner, Rachel McCrary, Andrew J. Newman, and Andy Wood
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Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irene Erner, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Gerbrand Koren, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Javier García-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Martin Jucker, Hera Kim, Robert W. Lee, Simon H. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Inna Polichtchouk, Jian Rao, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
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Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
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Yasuto Watanabe, Makoto Deushi, and Kohei Yoshida
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Lauren R. Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Andrew P. Schurer, Nathan Luke Abraham, Lucie J. Lücke, Rob Wilson, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Myriam Khodri, and Kohei Yoshida
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Large volcanic eruptions have caused temperature deviations over the past 1000 years; however, climate model results and reconstructions of surface cooling using tree rings do not match. We explore this mismatch using the latest models and find a better match to tree-ring reconstructions for some eruptions. Our results show that the way in which eruptions are simulated in models matters for the comparison to tree-rings, particularly regarding the spatial spread of volcanic aerosol.
Dillon Elsbury, Federico Serva, Julie M. Caron, Seung-Yoon Back, Clara Orbe, Jadwiga H. Richter, James A. Anstey, Neal Butchart, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier García-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Yoshio Kawatani, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Francois Lott, Hiroaki Naoe, Scott Osprey, Froila M. Palmeiro, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3950, 2025
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This study examines how the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a major tropical weather pattern, is influenced by persistent El Niño or La Niña sea surface temperature conditions during winter. Using a coordinated set of climate model experiments, we find that El Niño strengthens Kelvin waves, speeding up MJO propagation, while La Niña strengthens Rossby waves, slowing it down. Better understanding these interactions between the MJO and ocean helps us better understand natural climate variability.
Weiyu Zhang, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Cyril J. Morcrette, Wuhu Feng, Kalli Furtado, Paul R. Field, Chih-Chieh Chen, Andrew Gettelman, Piers M. Forster, Daniel R. Marsh, and Alexandru Rap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 473–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, 2025
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Contrail cirrus is the largest, but also most uncertain, contribution of aviation to global warming. We evaluate, for the first time, the impact of the host climate model on contrail cirrus properties. Substantial differences exist between contrail cirrus formation, persistence, and radiative effects in the host climate models. Reliable contrail cirrus simulations require advanced representation of cloud optical properties and microphysics, which should be better constrained by observations.
Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, Jeff R. Knight, and Martin B. Andrews
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1489–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024, 2024
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Models have biases in semi-annual oscillation (SAO) representation, mainly due to insufficient eastward wave forcing. We examined if the bias is from increased wave absorption due to circulation biases in the low–middle stratosphere. Alleviating biases at lower altitudes improves the SAO, but substantial bias remains. Alternative methods like gravity wave parameterization changes should be explored to enhance the modelled SAO, potentially improving sudden stratospheric warming predictability.
Andrew Gettelman, Richard Forbes, Roger Marchand, Chih-Chieh Chen, and Mark Fielding
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8069–8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, 2024
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Supercooled liquid clouds (liquid clouds colder than 0°C) are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We compare a single-column version of a weather model to observations with two different cloud schemes and find that both the dynamical environment and atmospheric aerosols are important for reproducing observations.
Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Shingo Watanabe, James A. Anstey, Jadwiga H. Richter, Neal Butchart, Clara Orbe, Scott M. Osprey, Hiroaki Naoe, Dillon Elsbury, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier García-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Tobias Kerzenmacher, François Lott, Froila M. Palmerio, Mijeong Park, Federico Serva, Masakazu Taguchi, Stefan Versick, and Kohei Yoshioda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3270, 2024
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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the tropical stratospheric mean winds has been relatively steady over the 7 decades it has been observed, but there are always cycle-to-cycle variations. This study used several global atmospheric models to investigate systematic modulation of the QBO by the El Niño/La Niña cycle. All models simulated shorter periods during El Niño, in agreement with observations. By contrast, the models disagreed even on the sign of the El Niño effect on QBO amplitude.
Sebastian Rhode, Peter Preusse, Jörn Ungermann, Inna Polichtchouk, Kaoru Sato, Shingo Watanabe, Manfred Ern, Karlheinz Nogai, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, and Martin Riese
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5785–5819, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5785-2024, 2024
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We investigate the capabilities of a proposed satellite mission, CAIRT, for observing gravity waves throughout the middle atmosphere and present the necessary methodology for in-depth wave analysis. Our findings suggest that such a satellite mission is highly capable of resolving individual wave parameters and could give new insights into the role of gravity waves in general atmospheric circulation and atmospheric processes.
Paula L. M. Gonzalez, Lesley J. Gray, Stergios Misios, Scott Osprey, and Hedi Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2487, 2024
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This study has examined a set of reanalyses, both modern and 20th Century, to evaluate the robustness of the signatures of the 11-yr solar cycle in the North Atlantic climate. We find a robust response to the 11-yr solar cycle over the North Atlantic sector with a positive SLP anomaly north of the Azores region at lags of +2–3 years following solar maximum. An ocean reanalysis dataset shows that thermal inertia of the ocean could explain the lag in the SC response.
Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S. Wright, Marta Abalos, Petr Šácha, Yoshio Kawatani, Sean M. Davis, Thomas Birner, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7873–7898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024, 2024
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A climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations from four global atmospheric reanalyses is evaluated. The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are in the vertical advection, which does not show a structure consistent with the differences in heating.
Lisa Degenhardt, Gregor C. Leckebusch, and Adam A. Scaife
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 587–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, 2024
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This study investigates how dynamical factors that are known to influence cyclone or windstorm development and strengthening also influence the seasonal forecast skill of severe winter windstorms. This study shows which factors are well represented in the seasonal forecast model, the Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), and which might need improvement to refine the forecast of severe winter windstorms.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Young-Ha Kim, Georg Sebastian Voelker, Gergely Bölöni, Günther Zängl, and Ulrich Achatz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3297-2024, 2024
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The quasi-biennial oscillation, which governs the tropical stratospheric circulation, is driven primarily by small-scale wave processes. We employ a novel method to realistically represent these wave processes in a global model, thereby revealing an aspect of the oscillation that has not been identified before. We find that the oblique propagation of waves, a process neglected by existing climate models, plays a pivotal role in the stratospheric circulation and its oscillation.
Timothy P. Banyard, Corwin J. Wright, Scott M. Osprey, Neil P. Hindley, Gemma Halloran, Lawrence Coy, Paul A. Newman, Neal Butchart, Martina Bramberger, and M. Joan Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2465–2490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2465-2024, 2024
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In 2019/2020, the tropical stratospheric wind phenomenon known as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was disrupted for only the second time in the historical record. This was poorly forecasted, and we want to understand why. We used measurements from the first Doppler wind lidar in space, Aeolus, to observe the disruption in an unprecedented way. Our results reveal important differences between Aeolus and the ERA5 reanalysis that affect the timing of the disruption's onset and its evolution.
Eframir Franco-Diaz, Michael Gerding, Laura Holt, Irina Strelnikova, Robin Wing, Gerd Baumgarten, and Franz-Josef Lübken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1543–1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1543-2024, 2024
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We use satellite, lidar, and ECMWF data to study storm-related waves that propagate above Kühlungsborn, Germany, during summer. Although these events occur in roughly half of the years of the satellite data we analyzed, we focus our study on two case study years (2014 and 2015). These events could contribute significantly to middle atmospheric circulation and are not accounted for in weather and climate models.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
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This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Michael Sigmond, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, Ruth Digby, Nathan Gillett, Viatcheslav Kharin, William Merryfield, Catherine Reader, John Scinocca, Neil Swart, John Virgin, Carsten Abraham, Jason Cole, Nicolas Lambert, Woo-Sung Lee, Yongxiao Liang, Elizaveta Malinina, Landon Rieger, Knut von Salzen, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Libo Wang, and Duo Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6553–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, 2023
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We present a new activity which aims to organize the analysis of biases in the Canadian Earth System model (CanESM) in a systematic manner. Results of this “Analysis for Development” (A4D) activity includes a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features substantial improvements regarding the simulation of dust and stratospheric temperatures, a second CanESM5.1 variant with reduced climate sensitivity, and insights into potential avenues to reduce various other model biases.
Monali Borthakur, Miriam Sinnhuber, Alexandra Laeng, Thomas Reddmann, Peter Braesicke, Gabriele Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Ilya Usoskin, Jan Maik Wissing, and Olesya Yakovchuk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12985–13013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12985-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12985-2023, 2023
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Reduced ozone levels resulting from ozone depletion mean more exposure to UV radiation, which has various effects on human health. We analysed solar events to see what influence it has on the chemistry of Earth's atmosphere and how this atmospheric chemistry change can affect the ozone. To do this, we used an atmospheric model considering only chemistry and compared it with satellite data. The focus was mainly on the contribution of chlorine, and we found about 10 %–20 % ozone loss due to that.
Ji-Hee Yoo, Hye-Yeong Chun, and Min-Jee Kang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10869–10881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10869-2023, 2023
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The January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming was preceded by unusual double westerly jets with polar stratospheric and subtropical mesospheric cores. This wind structure promotes anomalous dissipation of tropospheric planetary waves between the two maxima, leading to unusually strong shear instability. Shear instability generates the westward-propagating planetary waves with zonal wavenumber 2 in situ, thereby splitting the polar vortex just before the onset.
Jason Neil Steven Cole, Knut von Salzen, Jiangnan Li, John Scinocca, David Plummer, Vivek Arora, Norman McFarlane, Michael Lazare, Murray MacKay, and Diana Verseghy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5427–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, 2023
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The Canadian Atmospheric Model version 5 (CanAM5) is used to simulate on a global scale the climate of Earth's atmosphere, land, and lakes. We document changes to the physics in CanAM5 since the last major version of the model (CanAM4) and evaluate the climate simulated relative to observations and CanAM4. The climate simulated by CanAM5 is similar to CanAM4, but there are improvements, including better simulation of temperature and precipitation over the Amazon and better simulation of cloud.
Christian Scharun, Roland Ruhnke, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-91, 2023
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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The identification and quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is an important task for monitoring mitigation strategies under climate change. With RICHARD 1.0, we developed a novel approach using spatiotemporal proxy data and a selection algorithm to detect GHG emission hotspots. By using a one year dataset of global climate model output we showed that RICHARD is able to determine and quantify the source strengths of GHG emission hotspots much more precisely than conventional methods.
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
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Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
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Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
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Alongside mitigation and adaptation efforts, stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is increasingly considered a third pillar to combat dangerous climate change. We investigate the teleconnection between the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex under a warmer climate and an SAI scenario. We show that the Holton–Tan relationship weakens under both scenarios and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.
Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023
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Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
Eric Förster, Harald Bönisch, Marco Neumaier, Florian Obersteiner, Andreas Zahn, Andreas Hilboll, Anna B. Kalisz Hedegaard, Nikos Daskalakis, Alexandros Panagiotis Poulidis, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Michael Lichtenstern, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1893–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1893-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1893-2023, 2023
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The airborne megacity campaign EMeRGe provided an unprecedented amount of trace gas measurements. We combine measured volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with trajectory-modelled emission uptakes to identify potential source regions of pollution. We also characterise the chemical fingerprints (e.g. biomass burning and anthropogenic signatures) of the probed air masses to corroborate the contributing source regions. Our approach is the first large-scale study of VOCs originating from megacities.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
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Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
John T. Fasullo and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 163–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-163-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-163-2023, 2023
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The continued high levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increase the likelihood that key climate warming thresholds will be exceeded in the coming decades. Here we examine a recently proposed geoengineering approach using two recently produced climate model experiments. We find the associated latitudinal distribution of aerosol mass to exhibit substantial uncertainty, suggesting the need for significant flexibility in the location and amount of aerosol delivery, if implemented.
Chengzhu Zhang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Ryan Forsyth, Tom Vo, Shaocheng Xie, Zeshawn Shaheen, Gerald L. Potter, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Charles S. Zender, Wuyin Lin, Chih-Chieh Chen, Chris R. Terai, Salil Mahajan, Tian Zhou, Karthik Balaguru, Qi Tang, Cheng Tao, Yuying Zhang, Todd Emmenegger, Susannah Burrows, and Paul A. Ullrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9031–9056, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9031-2022, 2022
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Earth system model (ESM) developers run automated analysis tools on data from candidate models to inform model development. This paper introduces a new Python package, E3SM Diags, that has been developed to support ESM development and use routinely in the development of DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model. This tool covers a set of essential diagnostics to evaluate the mean physical climate from simulations, as well as several process-oriented and phenomenon-based evaluation diagnostics.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
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Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
Neal Butchart
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1237–1272, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1237-2022, 2022
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In recent years, it has emerged that there is an affinity between stratospheric variability and surface events. Waves from the troposphere interacting with the mean flow drive much of the variability in the polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warmings and tropical quasi-biennial oscillation. Here we review the historical evolution of established knowledge of the stratosphere's global structure and dynamical variability, along with recent advances and theories, and identify outstanding challenges.
Stephen G. Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, Anne A. Glanville, Xian Wu, Isla Simpson, Hui Li, Maria J. Molina, Kristen Krumhardt, Samuel Mogen, Keith Lindsay, Danica Lombardozzi, Will Wieder, Who M. Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Matthew Long, Gokhan Danabasoglu, David Bailey, Marika Holland, Nicole Lovenduski, Warren G. Strand, and Teagan King
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, 2022
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The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
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We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, Martyn P. Chipperfield, N. Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10657–10676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10657-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) over the first two decades of the 21st century are assessed using the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model. Stratospheric input of Cl from Cl-VSLS is estimated at ~130 ppt in 2019. The use of model set-up with constrained meteorology significantly increases the abundance of Cl-VSLS in the lower stratosphere relative to the free-running set-up. The growth in Cl-VSLS emissions significantly impacted recent HCl and COCl2 trends.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irene Erner, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
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Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Jorge L. García-Franco, Lesley J. Gray, Scott Osprey, Robin Chadwick, and Zane Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 825–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-825-2022, 2022
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This paper establishes robust links between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and several features of tropical climate. Robust precipitation responses, as well as changes to the Walker circulation, were found to be robustly linked to the variability in the lower stratosphere associated with the QBO using a 500-year simulation of a state-of-the-art climate model.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
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This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Soo-Hyun Kim, Jeonghoe Kim, Jung-Hoon Kim, and Hye-Yeong Chun
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 2277–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2277-2022, 2022
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The cube root of the energy dissipation rate (EDR), as a standard reporting metric of atmospheric turbulence, is estimated using 1 Hz commercial quick access recorder data from Korean-based national air carriers with two different types of aircraft. Various EDRs are estimated using zonal, meridional, and derived vertical wind components and the derived equivalent vertical gust. Characteristics of the observed EDR estimates using 1 Hz flight data are examined to observe strong turbulence cases.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Bablu Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4867–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, 2022
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This study examines interactions between variations in the strength of polar stratospheric winds and circulation in the North Atlantic in a climate model simulation. It finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds with oscillations to sets of consecutive Northern Hemisphere winters, which show all strong or all weak polar vortex conditions. The study also shows that a set of strong vortex winters in the 1990s contributed to the recent slowdown in the observed AMOC.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Jacopo Riboldi, Efi Rousi, Fabio D'Andrea, Gwendal Rivière, and François Lott
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 449–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-449-2022, 2022
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A revisited space and time spectral decomposition allows us to determine which harmonics dominate the upper-tropospheric flow evolution over a given time period as well as their propagation. This approach is used to identify Rossby wave patterns with a circumglobal extent, affecting weather evolution over different Northern Hemisphere regions. The results cast light on the processes originating and supporting these wave patterns, advocating at the same time for the usefulness of the technique.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Dai Koshin, Kaoru Sato, Masashi Kohma, and Shingo Watanabe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2293–2307, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2293-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2293-2022, 2022
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The 4D ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system for the whole neutral atmosphere has been updated. The update includes the introduction of a filter to reduce the generation of spurious waves, change in the order of horizontal diffusion of the forecast model to reproduce more realistic tidal amplitudes, and use of additional satellite observations. As a result, the analysis performance has been greatly improved, even for disturbances with periods of less than 1 d.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
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Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Florian Haenel, Wolfgang Woiwode, Jennifer Buchmüller, Felix Friedl-Vallon, Michael Höpfner, Sören Johansson, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Oliver Kirner, Anne Kleinert, Hermann Oelhaf, Johannes Orphal, Roland Ruhnke, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Jörn Ungermann, Michael Weimer, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2843–2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2843-2022, 2022
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We compare remote sensing observations of H2O, O3, HNO3 and clouds in the upper troposphere–lowermost stratosphere during an Arctic winter long-range research flight with simulations by two different state-of-the-art model systems. We find good agreement for dynamical structures, trace gas distributions and clouds. We investigate model biases and sensitivities, with the goal of aiding model development and improving our understanding of processes in the upper troposphere–lowermost stratosphere.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
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Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
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Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
Sheena Loeffel, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Reddmann, Frauke Fritsch, Stefan Versick, Gabriele Stiller, and Florian Haenel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1175–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, 2022
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SF6-derived trends of stratospheric AoA from observations and model simulations disagree in sign. SF6 experiences chemical degradation, which we explicitly integrate in a global climate model. In our simulations, the AoA trend changes sign when SF6 sinks are considered; thus, the process has the potential to reconcile simulated with observed AoA trends. We show that the positive AoA trend is due to the SF6 sinks themselves and provide a first approach for a correction to account for SF6 loss.
John P. McCormack, V. Lynn Harvey, Cora E. Randall, Nicholas Pedatella, Dai Koshin, Kaoru Sato, Lawrence Coy, Shingo Watanabe, Fabrizio Sassi, and Laura A. Holt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17577–17605, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17577-2021, 2021
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In order to have confidence in atmospheric predictions, it is important to know how well different numerical model simulations of the Earth’s atmosphere agree with one another. This work compares four different data assimilation models that extend to or beyond the mesosphere. Results shown here demonstrate that while the models are in close agreement below ~50 km, large differences arise at higher altitudes in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere that will need to be reconciled in the future.
Christopher J. Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Benjamin Ertl, Frank Hase, Omaira García, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Eliezer Sepúlveda, Peter Knippertz, and Peter Braesicke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5273–5292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5273-2021, 2021
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The joint analysis of different stable water isotopes in water vapour is a powerful tool for investigating atmospheric moisture pathways. This paper presents a novel global and multi-annual dataset of H2O and HDO in mid-tropospheric water vapour by using data from the satellite sensor Metop/IASI. Due to its unique combination of coverage and resolution in space and time, this dataset is highly promising for studying the hydrological cycle and its representation in weather and climate models.
Marta Abalos, Natalia Calvo, Samuel Benito-Barca, Hella Garny, Steven C. Hardiman, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Clara Orbe, David Saint-Martin, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021
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The stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), responsible for transporting mass, tracers and heat globally in the stratosphere, is evaluated in a set of state-of-the-art climate models. The acceleration of the BDC in response to increasing greenhouse gases is most robust in the lower stratosphere. At higher levels, the well-known inconsistency between model and observational BDC trends can be partly reconciled by accounting for limited sampling and large uncertainties in the observations.
Corwin J. Wright, Neil P. Hindley, M. Joan Alexander, Laura A. Holt, and Lars Hoffmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5873–5886, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5873-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5873-2021, 2021
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Measuring atmospheric gravity waves in low vertical-resolution data is technically challenging, especially when the waves are significantly longer in the vertical than in the length of the measurement domain. We introduce and demonstrate a modification to the existing Stockwell transform methods of characterising these waves that address these problems, with no apparent reduction in the other capabilities of the technique.
Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Leonard Friedrich Borchert, Aurélie Duchez, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021, 2021
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This work questions the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important component of the climate system, on the variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) a season ahead, particularly how this influence affects SST prediction credibility 2–4 months into the future. While we find this relationship is relevant for assessing SST predictions, it strongly depends on the time period and season we analyse and is more subtle than what is found in observations.
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
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We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Min-Jee Kang and Hye-Yeong Chun
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9839–9857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9839-2021, 2021
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In winter 2019/20, the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase was disrupted again by easterly winds. It is found that strong Rossby waves from the Southern Hemisphere weaken the jet core in early stages, and strong mixed Rossby–gravity waves reverse the wind in later stages. Inertia–gravity waves and small-scale convective gravity waves also provide negative forcing. These strong waves are attributed to an anomalous wind profile, barotropic instability, and slightly strong convection.
Michael Weimer, Jennifer Buchmüller, Lars Hoffmann, Ole Kirner, Beiping Luo, Roland Ruhnke, Michael Steiner, Ines Tritscher, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9515–9543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9515-2021, 2021
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We show that we are able to directly simulate polar stratospheric clouds formed locally in a mountain wave and represent their effect on the ozone chemistry with the global atmospheric chemistry model ICON-ART. Thus, we show the first simulations that close the gap between directly resolved mountain-wave-induced polar stratospheric clouds and their representation at coarse global resolutions.
Andrew Gettelman, Chieh-Chieh Chen, and Charles G. Bardeen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9405–9416, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9405-2021, 2021
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The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant economic disruption in 2020 and severely impacted air traffic. We use a climate model to evaluate the effect of the reductions in aviation on climate in 2020. Contrails, in general, warm the planet, and COVID-19-related reductions in contrails cooled the land surface in 2020. The timing of reductions in aviation was important, and this may change how we think about the future effects of contrails.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, and Scott Osprey
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 205–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021, 2021
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Observations of the stratosphere span roughly half a century, preventing analysis of multi-decadal variability in circulation using these data. Instead, we rely on long simulations of climate models. Here, we use a model to examine variations in northern polar stratospheric winds and find they vary with a period of around 90 years. We show that this is possibly due to variations in the size of winds over the Equator. This result may improve understanding of Equator–polar stratospheric coupling.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
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Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Jacob W. Smith, Peter H. Haynes, Amanda C. Maycock, Neal Butchart, and Andrew C. Bushell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2469–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, 2021
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This paper informs realistic simulation of stratospheric water vapour by clearly attributing each of the two key influences on water vapour entry to the stratosphere. Presenting modified trajectory models, the results of this paper show temperatures dominate on annual and inter-annual variations; however, transport has a significant effect in reducing the annual cycle maximum. Furthermore, sub-seasonal variations in temperature have an important overall influence.
Marc von Hobe, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Corinna Kloss, Alexey Ulanowski, Vladimir Yushkov, Fabrizio Ravegnani, C. Michael Volk, Laura L. Pan, Shawn B. Honomichl, Simone Tilmes, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, and Jonathon S. Wright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1267-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1267-2021, 2021
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The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is known to foster transport of polluted tropospheric air into the stratosphere. To test and amend our picture of ASM vertical transport, we analyse distributions of airborne trace gas observations up to 20 km altitude near the main ASM vertical conduit south of the Himalayas. We also show that a new high-resolution version of the global chemistry climate model WACCM is able to reproduce the observations well.
Beena Balan-Sarojini, Steffen Tietsche, Michael Mayer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Patricia de Rosnay, Tim Stockdale, and Frederic Vitart
The Cryosphere, 15, 325–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021, 2021
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Our study for the first time shows the impact of measured sea ice thickness (SIT) on seasonal forecasts of all the seasons. We prove that the long-term memory present in the Arctic winter SIT is helpful to improve summer sea ice forecasts. Our findings show that realistic SIT initial conditions to start a forecast are useful in (1) improving seasonal forecasts, (2) understanding errors in the forecast model, and (3) recognizing the need for continuous monitoring of world's ice-covered oceans.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
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Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
Min-Jee Kang, Hye-Yeong Chun, and Rolando R. Garcia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14669–14693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14669-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14669-2020, 2020
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In winter 2015/16, the descent of the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) jet was interrupted by easterly winds. We find that Rossby–gravity and inertia–gravity waves weaken the jet core in early stages, and small-scale convective gravity waves, as well as horizontal and vertical components of Rossby waves, reverse the wind sign in later stages. The strong negative wave forcing in the tropics results from the enhanced convection, an anomalous wind profile, and barotropic instability.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
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A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Andrew Orr, J. Scott Hosking, Aymeric Delon, Lars Hoffmann, Reinhold Spang, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, James Keeble, Nathan Luke Abraham, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12483–12497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12483-2020, 2020
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Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are clouds found in the Antarctic winter stratosphere and are implicated in the formation of the ozone hole. These clouds can sometimes be formed or enhanced by mountain waves, formed as air passes over hills or mountains. However, this important mechanism is missing in coarse-resolution climate models, limiting our ability to simulate ozone. This study examines an attempt to include the effects of mountain waves and their impact on PSCs and ozone.
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Short summary
This paper documents the numerical experiments to be used in phase 1 of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), which was set up to improve the representation of the QBO and tropical stratospheric variability in global climate models.
This paper documents the numerical experiments to be used in phase 1 of the...
