Articles | Volume 17, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| 
23 Aug 2024
Model experiment description paper |
| 23 Aug 2024
| 23 Aug 2024
Dynamical Madden–Julian Oscillation forecasts using an ensemble subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast system of the IAP-CAS model
Yangke Liu
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Qing Bao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Bian He
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Xiaofei Wu
School of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
Jing Yang
Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Yimin Liu
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Guoxiong Wu
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Siyuan Zhou
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Yao Tang
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Ankang Qu
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
School of Emergency Management Science and Engineering, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Yalan Fan
Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Anling Liu
Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Dandan Chen
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Zhaoming Luo
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
School of Emergency Management Science and Engineering, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Xing Hu
National Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Tongwen Wu
Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Related authors
No articles found.
Malcolm John Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2582, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focussing on high resolution global climate models, that is those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century or so in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present day and future projections, and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Haolin Wang, Xiao Lu, Daniel J. Jacob, Owen R. Cooper, Kai-Lan Chang, Ke Li, Meng Gao, Yiming Liu, Bosi Sheng, Kai Wu, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Bastien Sauvage, Philippe Nédélec, Romain Blot, and Shaojia Fan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13753–13782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13753-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We report significant global tropospheric ozone increases in 1995–2017 based on extensive aircraft and ozonesonde observations. Using GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry model) multi-decadal global simulations, we find that changes in global anthropogenic emissions, in particular the rapid increases in aircraft emissions, contribute significantly to the increases in tropospheric ozone and resulting radiative impact.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Henry Bowman, Steven Turnock, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Larry Horowitz, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Dagmar Kubistin, and David D. Parrish
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3507–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A full understanding of ozone in the troposphere requires investigation of its temporal variability over all timescales. Model simulations show that the northern midlatitude ozone seasonal cycle shifted with industrial development (1850–2014), with an increasing magnitude and a later summer peak. That shift reached a maximum in the mid-1980s, followed by a reversal toward the preindustrial cycle. The few available observations, beginning in the 1970s, are consistent with the model simulations.
Jie Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Steven T. Turnock, Jane P. Mulcahy, Laura J. Wilcox, Ben B. Booth, David Sexton, Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, and Qianxia Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18609–18627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6 ESMs systematically underestimate TAS anomalies in the NH midlatitudes, especially from 1960 to 1990. The anomalous cooling is concurrent in time and space with anthropogenic SO2 emissions. The spurious drop in TAS is attributed to the overestimated aerosol concentrations. The aerosol forcing sensitivity cannot well explain the inter-model spread of PHC biases. And the cloud-amount term accounts for most of the inter-model spread in aerosol forcing sensitivity.
Jinxiao Li, Qing Bao, Yimin Liu, Lei Wang, Jing Yang, Guoxiong Wu, Xiaofei Wu, Bian He, Xiaocong Wang, Xiaoqi Zhang, Yaoxian Yang, and Zili Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6113–6133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6113-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The configuration and simulated performance of tropical cyclones (TCs) in FGOALS-f3-L/H will be introduced firstly. The results indicate that the simulated performance of TC activities is improved globally with the increased horizontal resolution especially in TC counts, seasonal cycle, interannual variabilities and intensity aspects. It is worth establishing a high-resolution coupled dynamic prediction system based on FGOALS-f3-H (~ 25 km) to improve the prediction skill of TCs.
Yixiong Lu, Tongwen Wu, Yubin Li, and Ben Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5183–5204, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5183-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5183-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The spurious precipitation in the tropical southeastern Pacific and southern Atlantic is one of the most prominent systematic biases in coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. This study significantly promotes the marine stratus simulation and largely alleviates the excessive precipitation biases through improving parameterizations of boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection, providing an effective solution to the long-standing bias in the tropical precipitation simulation.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
David D. Parrish, Richard G. Derwent, Steven T. Turnock, Fiona M. O'Connor, Johannes Staehelin, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9669–9679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The few ozone measurements made before the 1980s indicate that industrial development increased ozone concentrations by a factor of ~ 2 at northern midlatitudes, which are now larger than at southern midlatitudes. This difference was much smaller, and likely reversed, in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Earth system models find similar increases, but not higher pre-industrial ozone in the south. This disagreement may indicate that modeled natural ozone sources and/or deposition loss are inadequate.
Tongwen Wu, Rucong Yu, Yixiong Lu, Weihua Jie, Yongjie Fang, Jie Zhang, Li Zhang, Xiaoge Xin, Laurent Li, Zaizhi Wang, Yiming Liu, Fang Zhang, Fanghua Wu, Min Chu, Jianglong Li, Weiping Li, Yanwu Zhang, Xueli Shi, Wenyan Zhou, Junchen Yao, Xiangwen Liu, He Zhao, Jinghui Yan, Min Wei, Wei Xue, Anning Huang, Yaocun Zhang, Yu Zhang, Qi Shu, and Aixue Hu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2977–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2977-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the high-resolution version of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) Climate System Model, BCC-CSM2-HR, and describes its climate simulation performance including the atmospheric temperature and wind; precipitation; and the tropical climate phenomena such as TC, MJO, QBO, and ENSO. BCC-CSM2-HR is our model version contributing to the HighResMIP. We focused on its updates and differential characteristics from its predecessor, the medium-resolution version BCC-CSM2-MR.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Xiao Lu, Lin Zhang, Tongwen Wu, Michael S. Long, Jun Wang, Daniel J. Jacob, Fang Zhang, Jie Zhang, Sebastian D. Eastham, Lu Hu, Lei Zhu, Xiong Liu, and Min Wei
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3817–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3817-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3817-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the development and evaluation of a new climate chemistry model, BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0, which couples the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model as an atmospheric chemistry component in the Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model. A 3-year (2012–2014) simulation of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 shows that the model captures well the spatiotemporal distributions of tropospheric ozone, other gaseous pollutants, and aerosols.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Siyuan Zhou, Jing Yang, Wei-Chyung Wang, Chuanfeng Zhao, Daoyi Gong, and Peijun Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5211–5229, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5211-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5211-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol–cloud–precipitation interaction is a challenging problem in regional climate. Our study contrasted the observed diurnal variation of heavy rainfall and associated clouds over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei between clean and polluted days during the 2002–2012 summers. We found the heavy rainfall under pollution has earlier start time, earlier peak time and longer duration, and further found the absorbing aerosols and scattering aerosols play different roles in the heavy rainfall diurnal variation.
Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, Jie Zhang, Weihua Jie, Yanwu Zhang, Fanghua Wu, Laurent Li, Jinghui Yan, Xiaohong Liu, Xiao Lu, Haiyue Tan, Lin Zhang, Jun Wang, and Aixue Hu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 977–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-977-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-977-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the first version of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) fully coupled Earth System Model with interactive atmospheric chemistry and aerosols (BCC-ESM1). It is one of the models at the BCC for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) experiment using BCC-ESM1 has been finished. The evaluations show an overall good agreement between BCC-ESM1 simulations and observations in the 20th century.
Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Yongjie Fang, Xiaoge Xin, Laurent Li, Weiping Li, Weihua Jie, Jie Zhang, Yiming Liu, Li Zhang, Fang Zhang, Yanwu Zhang, Fanghua Wu, Jianglong Li, Min Chu, Zaizhi Wang, Xueli Shi, Xiangwen Liu, Min Wei, Anning Huang, Yaocun Zhang, and Xiaohong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1573–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1573-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1573-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents advancements of the BCC model transition from CMIP5 to CMIP6, especially in the model resolution and its physics. Compared with BCC CMIP5 models, the BCC CMIP6 model shows significant improvements in historical simulations in many aspects including tropospheric air temperature and circulation at global and regional scales in East Asia, climate variability at different timescales (QBO, MJO, and diurnal cycle of precipitation), and the long-term trend of global air temperature.
Jiahui Zhang, Dao-Yi Gong, Rui Mao, Jing Yang, Ziyin Zhang, and Yun Qian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16775–16791, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16775-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16775-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Chinese Spring Festival (also known as the Chinese New Year or Lunar New Year) is the most important festival in China. This paper reports that during the Chinese Spring Festival, the precipitation over southern China has been significantly reduced. The precipitation reduction is due to anomalous northerly winds. We suppose that anomalous atmospheric circulation is likely related to the human activity during holidays. It is an interesting phenomenon.
Reindert J. Haarsma, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Catherine A. Senior, Alessio Bellucci, Qing Bao, Ping Chang, Susanna Corti, Neven S. Fučkar, Virginie Guemas, Jost von Hardenberg, Wilco Hazeleger, Chihiro Kodama, Torben Koenigk, L. Ruby Leung, Jian Lu, Jing-Jia Luo, Jiafu Mao, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Masaki Satoh, Enrico Scoccimarro, Tido Semmler, Justin Small, and Jin-Song von Storch
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Recent progress in computing power has enabled climate models to simulate more processes in detail and on a smaller scale. Here we present a common protocol for these high-resolution runs that will foster the analysis and understanding of the impact of model resolution on the simulated climate. These runs will also serve as a more reliable source for assessing climate risks that are associated with small-scale weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones.
Tianjun Zhou, Andrew G. Turner, James L. Kinter, Bin Wang, Yun Qian, Xiaolong Chen, Bo Wu, Bin Wang, Bo Liu, Liwei Zou, and Bian He
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3589–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3589-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3589-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tells why to launch the Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) and how to achieve its scientific goals on monsoon variability. It addresses the scientific questions to be answered, describes three tiered experiments comprehensively and proposes a basic analysis framework to guide future research. It will help the monsoon research communities to understand the objectives of the GMMIP and the modelling groups involved in the GMMIP conduct the experiments successfully.
Kai Zhang, Rong Fu, Tao Wang, and Yimin Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7825–7835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7825-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7825-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Based on observations and trajectory model, we show that the geographic variation of dehydration center associated with that of convection has a significant influence on locations where air mass is dehydrated, and thus water vapor enters the lower stratosphere, in summer over the Asian monsoon region. Specifically, a westward shift of dehydration center toward the area of warmer tropopause temperatures tends to moisten the lower stratosphere.
K. E. O. Todd-Brown, J. T. Randerson, F. Hopkins, V. Arora, T. Hajima, C. Jones, E. Shevliakova, J. Tjiputra, E. Volodin, T. Wu, Q. Zhang, and S. D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 11, 2341–2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
Subsurface hydrological controls on the short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate–nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (v2.1)
CARIB12: a regional Community Earth System Model/Modular Ocean Model 6 configuration of the Caribbean Sea
Architectural insights into and training methodology optimization of Pangu-Weather
Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Software sustainability of global impact models
fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections
ISOM 1.0: a fully mesoscale-resolving idealized Southern Ocean model and the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions
A computationally lightweight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazards: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1
Introducing the MESMER-M-TPv0.1.0 module: spatially explicit Earth system model emulation for monthly precipitation and temperature
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Robust handling of extremes in quantile mapping – “Murder your darlings”
A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention
An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6
Coupling the regional climate model ICON-CLM v2.6.6 to the Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 using OASIS3-MCT v4.0
A fully coupled solid-particle microphysics scheme for stratospheric aerosol injections within the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2
An improved representation of aerosol in the ECMWF IFS-COMPO 49R1 through the integration of EQSAM4Climv12 – a first attempt at simulating aerosol acidity
At-scale Model Output Statistics in mountain environments (AtsMOS v1.0)
Impact of ocean vertical-mixing parameterization on Arctic sea ice and upper-ocean properties using the NEMO-SI3 model
Bridging the gap: a new module for human water use in the Community Earth System Model version 2.2.1
Modeling Commercial-Scale CO2 Storage in the Gas Hydrate Stability Zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0
A new lightning scheme in the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM5.1): implementation, evaluation, and projections of lightning and fire in future climates
Methane dynamics in the Baltic Sea: investigating concentration, flux, and isotopic composition patterns using the coupled physical–biogeochemical model BALTSEM-CH4 v1.0
Using feature importance as exploratory data analysis tool on earth system models
CropSuite – A comprehensive open-source crop suitability model considering climate variability for climate impact assessment
ICON ComIn – The ICON Community Interface (ComIn version 0.1.0, with ICON version 2024.01-01)
Split-explicit external mode solver in the finite volume sea ice–ocean model FESOM2
Applying double cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5
The sea ice component of GC5: coupling SI3 to HadGEM3 using conductive fluxes
CICE on a C-grid: new momentum, stress, and transport schemes for CICEv6.5
HyPhAICC v1.0: a hybrid physics–AI approach for probability fields advection shown through an application to cloud cover nowcasting
CICERO Simple Climate Model (CICERO-SCM v1.1.1) – an improved simple climate model with a parameter calibration tool
A non-intrusive, multi-scale, and flexible coupling interface in WRF
Development of a plant carbon–nitrogen interface coupling framework in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model (SSiB5/TRIFFID/DayCent-SOM v1.0)
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK)
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7
The DOE E3SM Version 2.1: Overview and Assessment of the Impacts of Parameterized Ocean Submesoscales
Evaluation of atmospheric rivers in reanalyses and climate models in a new metrics framework
Implementation of a brittle sea ice rheology in an Eulerian, finite-difference, C-grid modeling framework: impact on the simulated deformation of sea ice in the Arctic
HSW-V v1.0: localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model
A 3D-Var assimilation scheme for vertical velocity with CMA-MESO v5.0
Updating the radiation infrastructure in MESSy (based on MESSy version 2.55)
An urban module coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity model to improve hydrothermal simulations in urban systems
Bayesian hierarchical model for bias-correcting climate models
Evaluation of the coupling of EMACv2.55 to the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4
Reduced floating-point precision in regional climate simulations: an ensemble-based statistical verification
TorchClim v1.0: a deep-learning plugin for climate model physics
The very-high resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP
DiuSST: A conceptual model of diurnal warm layers for idealized atmospheric simulations with interactive SST
ZEMBA v1.0: An energy and moisture balance climate model to investigate Quaternary climate
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Giovanni Seijo-Ellis, Donata Giglio, Gustavo Marques, and Frank Bryan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8989–9021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A CESM–MOM6 regional configuration of the Caribbean Sea was developed in response to the rising need for high-resolution models for climate impact studies. The configuration is validated for the period 2000–2020 and improves significant errors in a low-resolution model. Oceanic properties are well represented. Patterns of freshwater associated with the Amazon River are well captured, and the mean flows of ocean waters across multiple passages in the Caribbean Sea agree with observations.
Deifilia To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8873–8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers 3D atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20 %–30 %. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases the accessibility of training and working with the model.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Seung H. Baek, Paul A. Ullrich, Bo Dong, and Jiwoo Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8665–8681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant co-variances during precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation (a stationary phenomenon). However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation (a non-stationary phenomenon) captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. Our study quantifies a ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling.
Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Daniel S. Katz, and Robert Reinecke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8593–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research software is vital for scientific progress but is often developed by scientists with limited skills, time, and funding, leading to challenges in usability and maintenance. Our study across 10 sectors shows strengths in version control, open-source licensing, and documentation while emphasizing the need for containerization and code quality. We recommend workshops; code quality metrics; funding; and following the findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) standards.
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Jingwei Xie, Xi Wang, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Jiangfeng Yu, Zipeng Yu, Junlin Wei, and Xiang Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8469–8493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose the concept of mesoscale ocean direct numerical simulation (MODNS), which should resolve the first baroclinic deformation radius and ensure the numerical dissipative effects do not directly contaminate the mesoscale motions. It can be a benchmark for testing mesoscale ocean large eddy simulation (MOLES) methods in ocean models. We build an idealized Southern Ocean model using MITgcm to generate a type of MODNS. We also illustrate the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions.
Emily Black, John Ellis, and Ross I. Maidment
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8353–8372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present General TAMSAT-ALERT, a computationally lightweight and versatile tool for generating ensemble forecasts from time series data. General TAMSAT-ALERT is capable of combining multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into probabilistic hazard assessments. In this way, it complements existing systems and enhances their utility for actionable hazard assessment.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Denica Bozhinova, Lars Bärring, Joakim Löw, Carolina Nilsson, Gustav Strandberg, Johan Södling, Johan Thuresson, Renate Wilcke, and Wei Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8173–8179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When bias adjusting climate model data using quantile mapping, one needs to prescribe what to do at the tails of the distribution, where a larger data range is likely encountered outside of the calibration period. The end result is highly dependent on the method used. We show that, to avoid discontinuities in the time series, one needs to exclude data in the calibration range to also activate the extrapolation functionality in that time period.
Philip J. Rasch, Haruki Hirasawa, Mingxuan Wu, Sarah J. Doherty, Robert Wood, Hailong Wang, Andy Jones, James Haywood, and Hansi Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7963–7994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a protocol to compare computer climate simulations to better understand a proposed strategy intended to counter warming and climate impacts from greenhouse gas increases. This slightly changes clouds in six ocean regions to reflect more sunlight and cool the Earth. Example changes in clouds and climate are shown for three climate models. Cloud changes differ between the models, but precipitation and surface temperature changes are similar when their cooling effects are made similar.
Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Duncan Watson-Parris, Gregory Elsaesser, Hugh Morrison, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Ci Song, and Daniel McCoy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7835–7853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a dataset where 45 parameters related to cloud processes in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) are perturbed. Three sets of perturbed parameter ensembles (263 members) were created: current climate, preindustrial aerosol loading and future climate with sea surface temperature increased by 4 K.
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Vera Maurer, Stefan Poll, and Irina Fast
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7815–7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The regional Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 that includes the regional climate model ICON-CLM coupled to the ocean model NEMO and the hydrological discharge model HD via the OASIS3-MCT coupler can be a useful tool for conducting long-term regional climate simulations over the EURO-CORDEX domain. The new OASIS3-MCT coupling interface implemented in ICON-CLM makes it more flexible for coupling to an external ocean model and an external hydrological discharge model.
Sandro Vattioni, Rahel Weber, Aryeh Feinberg, Andrea Stenke, John A. Dykema, Beiping Luo, Georgios A. Kelesidis, Christian A. Bruun, Timofei Sukhodolov, Frank N. Keutsch, Thomas Peter, and Gabriel Chiodo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7767–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantified impacts and efficiency of stratospheric solar climate intervention via solid particle injection. Microphysical interactions of solid particles with the sulfur cycle were interactively coupled to the heterogeneous chemistry scheme and the radiative transfer code of an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. Compared to injection of SO2 we only find a stronger cooling efficiency for solid particles when normalizing to the aerosol load but not when normalizing to the injection rate.
Samuel Rémy, Swen Metzger, Vincent Huijnen, Jason E. Williams, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7539–7567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the development of the future operational cycle 49R1 of the IFS-COMPO system, used for operational forecasts of atmospheric composition in the CAMS project, and focus on the implementation of the thermodynamical model EQSAM4Clim version 12. The implementation of EQSAM4Clim significantly improves the simulated secondary inorganic aerosol surface concentration. The new aerosol and precipitation acidity diagnostics showed good agreement against observational datasets.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7629–7643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.
Sofia Allende, Anne Marie Treguier, Camille Lique, Clément de Boyer Montégut, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Antoine Barthélemy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7445–7466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the parameters of the turbulent-kinetic-energy mixed-layer-penetration scheme in the NEMO model with regard to sea-ice-covered regions of the Arctic Ocean. This evaluation reveals the impact of these parameters on mixed-layer depth, sea surface temperature and salinity, and ocean stratification. Our findings demonstrate significant impacts on sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration, emphasizing the need for accurately representing ocean mixing to understand Arctic climate dynamics.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7365–7399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved a climate model by adding the representation of water use sectors such as domestic, industry, and agriculture. This new feature helps us understand how water is used and supplied in various areas. We tested our model from 1971 to 2010 and found that it accurately identifies areas with water scarcity. By modelling the competition between sectors when water availability is limited, the model helps estimate the intensity and extent of individual sectors' water shortages.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-162, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most dangerous effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a sub-sea CO2 injection.
Cynthia Whaley, Montana Etten-Bohm, Courtney Schumacher, Ayodeji Akingunola, Vivek Arora, Jason Cole, Michael Lazare, David Plummer, Knut von Salzen, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes how lightning was added as a process in the Canadian Earth System Model in order to interactively respond to climate changes. As lightning is an important cause of global wildfires, this new model development allows for more realistic projections of how wildfires may change in the future, responding to a changing climate.
Erik Gustafsson, Bo G. Gustafsson, Martijn Hermans, Christoph Humborg, and Christian Stranne
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7157–7179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) cycling in the Baltic Proper is studied through model simulations, enabling a first estimate of key CH4 fluxes. A preliminary budget identifies benthic CH4 release as the dominant source and two main sinks: CH4 oxidation in the water (92 % of sinks) and outgassing to the atmosphere (8 % of sinks). This study addresses CH4 emissions from coastal seas and is a first step toward understanding the relative importance of open-water outgassing compared with local coastal hotspots.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-133, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2526, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CropSuite is a fuzzy-logic based high resolution open-source crop suitability model considering the impact of climate variability. We apply CropSuite for 48 important staple and cash crops at 1 km spatial resolution for Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts on suitable areas, but also affects optimal sowing dates, and multiple cropping potentials. The results provide information that can be used for climate impact assessments, adaptation and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-135, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) Model Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++ and Python) and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Tridib Banerjee, Patrick Scholz, Sergey Danilov, Knut Klingbeil, and Dmitry Sidorenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7051–7065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose a new alternative to one of the functionalities of the sea ice model FESOM2. The alternative we propose allows the model to capture and simulate fast changes in quantities like sea surface elevation more accurately. We also demonstrate that the new alternative is faster and more adept at taking advantages of highly parallelized computing infrastructure. We therefore show that this new alternative is a great addition to the sea ice model FESOM2.
Yuwen Fan, Zhao Yang, Min-Hui Lo, Jina Hur, and Eun-Soon Im
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6929–6947, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigated agriculture in the North China Plain (NCP) has a significant impact on the local climate. To better understand this impact, we developed a specialized model specifically for the NCP region. This model allows us to simulate the double-cropping vegetation and the dynamic irrigation practices that are commonly employed in the NCP. This model shows improved performance in capturing the general crop growth, such as crop stages, biomass, crop yield, and vegetation greenness.
Ed Blockley, Emma Fiedler, Jeff Ridley, Luke Roberts, Alex West, Dan Copsey, Daniel Feltham, Tim Graham, David Livings, Clement Rousset, David Schroeder, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6799–6817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the sea ice model component of the latest Met Office coupled model configuration, which will be used as the physical basis for UK contributions to CMIP7. Documentation of science options used in the configuration are given along with a brief model evaluation. This is the first UK configuration to use NEMO’s new SI3 sea ice model. We provide details on how SI3 was adapted to work with Met Office coupling methodology and documentation of coupling processes in the model.
Jean-François Lemieux, William H. Lipscomb, Anthony Craig, David A. Bailey, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Philippe Blain, Till A. S. Rasmussen, Mats Bentsen, Frédéric Dupont, David Hebert, and Richard Allard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6703–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the latest version of the CICE model. It solves equations that describe the dynamics and the growth and melt of sea ice. To do so, the domain is divided into grid cells and variables are positioned at specific locations in the cells. A new implementation (C-grid) is presented, with the velocity located on cell edges. Compared to the previous B-grid, the C-grid allows for a natural coupling with some oceanic and atmospheric models. It also allows for ice transport in narrow channels.
Rachid El Montassir, Olivier Pannekoucke, and Corentin Lapeyre
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6657–6681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a novel approach that combines physics and artificial intelligence (AI) for improved cloud cover forecasting. This approach outperforms traditional deep learning (DL) methods in producing realistic and physically consistent results while requiring less training data. This architecture provides a promising solution to overcome the limitations of classical AI methods and contributes to open up new possibilities for combining physical knowledge with deep learning models.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-140, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This article details a new feature we implemented in the most popular regional atmospheric model (WRF). This feature allows data to be exchanged between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean-Atmosphere-Sea-Ice-Soil – Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Zheng Xiang, Yongkang Xue, Weidong Guo, Melannie D. Hartman, Ye Liu, and William J. Parton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6437–6464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A process-based plant carbon (C)–nitrogen (N) interface coupling framework has been developed which mainly focuses on plant resistance and N-limitation effects on photosynthesis, plant respiration, and plant phenology. A dynamic C / N ratio is introduced to represent plant resistance and self-adjustment. The framework has been implemented in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model, and testing results show a general improvement in simulating plant properties with this framework.
Ulrich Georg Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1864, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a Python library designed to separate model description from numerical implementation. This approach results in well-documented, easily readable, and maintainable model code, allowing students and researchers to concentrate on conceptual challenges rather than mathematical intricacies.
Malcolm John Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2582, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focussing on high resolution global climate models, that is those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century or so in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present day and future projections, and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Katherine Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golez, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautum Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordonez
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-149, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer biases reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea-ice extent in the North Atlantic, a small strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and improvements in many atmospheric climatological variables.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-142, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
1. A metrics package designed for easy analysis of AR characteristics and statistics is presented. 2. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models, and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. 3. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the north and south Atlantic (south Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Laurent Brodeau, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, and Véronique Dansereau
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6051–6082, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new brittle sea ice rheology, BBM, has been implemented into the sea ice component of NEMO. We describe how a new spatial discretization framework was introduced to achieve this. A set of idealized and realistic ocean and sea ice simulations of the Arctic have been performed using BBM and the standard viscous–plastic rheology of NEMO. When compared to satellite data, our simulations show that our implementation of BBM leads to a fairly good representation of sea ice deformations.
Joseph P. Hollowed, Christiane Jablonowski, Hunter Y. Brown, Benjamin R. Hillman, Diana L. Bull, and Joseph L. Hart
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5913–5938, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions deposit material in the upper atmosphere, which is capable of altering temperature and wind patterns of Earth's atmosphere for subsequent years. This research describes a new method of simulating these effects in an idealized, efficient atmospheric model. A volcanic eruption of sulfur dioxide is described with a simplified set of physical rules, which eventually cools the planetary surface. This model has been designed as a test bed for climate attribution studies.
Hong Li, Yi Yang, Jian Sun, Yuan Jiang, Ruhui Gan, and Qian Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5883–5896, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical atmospheric motions play a vital role in convective-scale precipitation forecasts by connecting atmospheric dynamics with cloud development. A three-dimensional variational vertical velocity assimilation scheme is developed within the high-resolution CMA-MESO model, utilizing the adiabatic Richardson equation as the observation operator. A 10 d continuous run and an individual case study demonstrate improved forecasts, confirming the scheme's effectiveness.
Matthias Nützel, Laura Stecher, Patrick Jöckel, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Michael Ponater, Phoebe Graf, and Markus Kunze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5821–5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We extended the infrastructure of our modelling system to enable the use of an additional radiation scheme. After calibrating the model setups to the old and the new radiation scheme, we find that the simulation with the new scheme shows considerable improvements, e.g. concerning the cold-point temperature and stratospheric water vapour. Furthermore, perturbations of radiative fluxes associated with greenhouse gas changes, e.g. of methane, tend to be improved when the new scheme is employed.
Yibing Wang, Xianhong Xie, Bowen Zhu, Arken Tursun, Fuxiao Jiang, Yao Liu, Dawei Peng, and Buyun Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5803–5819, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Urban expansion intensifies challenges like urban heat and urban dry islands. To address this, we developed an urban module, VIC-urban, in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Tested in Beijing, VIC-urban accurately simulated turbulent heat fluxes, runoff, and land surface temperature. We provide a reliable tool for large-scale simulations considering urban environment and a systematic urban modelling framework within VIC, offering crucial insights for urban planners and designers.
Jeremy Carter, Erick A. Chacón-Montalván, and Amber Leeson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5733–5757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are essential tools in the study of climate change and its wide-ranging impacts on life on Earth. However, the output is often afflicted with some bias. In this paper, a novel model is developed to predict and correct bias in the output of climate models. The model captures uncertainty in the correction and explicitly models underlying spatial correlation between points. These features are of key importance for climate change impact assessments and resulting decision-making.
Anna Martin, Veronika Gayler, Benedikt Steil, Klaus Klingmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5705–5732, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study evaluates the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4 as a replacement for the simplified submodel SURFACE in EMAC. JSBACH mitigates earlier problems of soil dryness, which are critical for vegetation modelling. When analysed using different datasets, the coupled model shows strong correlations of key variables, such as land surface temperature, surface albedo and radiation flux. The versatility of the model increases significantly, while the overall performance does not degrade.
Hugo Banderier, Christian Zeman, David Leutwyler, Stefan Rüdisühli, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5573–5586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5573-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the effects of reduced-precision arithmetic in a state-of-the-art regional climate model by studying the results of 10-year-long simulations. After this time, the results of the reduced precision and the standard implementation are hardly different. This should encourage the use of reduced precision in climate models to exploit the speedup and memory savings it brings. The methodology used in this work can help researchers verify reduced-precision implementations of their model.
David Fuchs, Steven C. Sherwood, Abhnil Prasad, Kirill Trapeznikov, and Jim Gimlett
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5459–5475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) of unresolved processes offers many new possibilities for improving weather and climate models, but integrating ML into the models has been an engineering challenge, and there are performance issues. We present a new software plugin for this integration, TorchClim, that is scalable and flexible and thereby allows a new level of experimentation with the ML approach. We also provide guidance on ML training and demonstrate a skillful hybrid ML atmosphere model.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-119, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10-15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100-km and a 25-km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased in the resolution.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1876, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The daily warming and cooling of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts cloud formation above the ocean and can modulate the clustering of thunderstorms, as relevant for rainfall extremes and hurricanes. However, the daily SST cycle is often poorly represented in idealized modeling studies of cloud organization. To address this, we present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. We evaluate the model against observations and other models.
Daniel Francis James Gunning, Kerim Hestnes Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1384, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth’s orbit. We demonstrate ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth’s climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth’s most recent cold extreme- the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Cited articles
Adames, Á. F. and Kim, D.: The MJO as a Dispersive, Convectively Coupled Moisture Wave: Theory and Observations, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 913–941, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0170.1, 2016.
Adames, Á. F. and Wallace, J. M.: Three-Dimensional Structure and Evolution of the MJO and Its Relation to the Mean Flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 2007–2026, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0254.1, 2014.
Adames, Á. F. and Wallace, J. M.: Three-Dimensional Structure and Evolution of the Moisture Field in the MJO, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 3733–3754, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0003.1, 2015.
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.-P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Ahn, M., Kim, D., Kang, D., Lee, J., Sperber, K. R., Gleckler, P. J., Jiang, X., Ham, Y., and Kim, H.: MJO Propagation Across the Maritime Continent: Are CMIP6 Models Better Than CMIP5 Models?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087250, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087250, 2020.
Bao, Q.: Outlook for El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole in autumn-winter 2018–2019, Chinese Sci. Bull., 64, 73–78, https://doi.org/10.1360/N972018-00913, 2019.
Bao, Q. and Li, J.: Progress in climate modeling of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau, Natl. Sci. Rev., 7, 486–487, https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaa006, 2020.
Bao, Q., Liu, Y., Wu, G., He, B., Li, J., Wang, L., Wu, X., Chen, K., Wang, X., Yang, J., and Zhang, X.: CAS FGOALS-f3-H and CAS FGOALS-f3-L outputs for the high-resolution model intercomparison project simulation of CMIP6, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 13, 576–581, https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2020.1814675, 2020.
Bao, Q., He, B., Wu, X., Yang, J., Liu, Y., Wu, G., Zhu, T., Zhou, S., Liu, Y., Tang, Y., Qu, A., Fan, Y., Liu, A., Chen, D., Luo, Z., Hu, X., and Wu, T.: An ensemble subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast system of IAP-CAS model (1.3), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10791355, 2024a.
Bao, Q., He, B., and Wu, X.: Input data of the IAP-CAS S2S system, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10820243, 2024b.
Benedict, J. J. and Randall, D. A.: Observed Characteristics of the MJO Relative to Maximum Rainfall, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2332–2354, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3968.1, 2007.
Bessafi, M. and Wheeler, M. C.: Modulation of south Indian ocean tropical cyclones by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively coupled equatorial waves, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 638–656, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3087.1, 2006.
Cassou, C.: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nature, 455, 523–527, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07286, 2008.
Chen, G., Ling, J., Zhang, R., Xiao, Z., and Li, C.: The MJO From CMIP5 to CMIP6: Perspectives From Tracking MJO Precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL095241, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095241, 2022.
Craig, A. P., Vertenstein, M., and Jacob, R.: A new flexible coupler for earth system modeling developed for CCSM4 and CESM1, Int. J. High Perform. C., 26, 31–42, https://doi.org/10.1177/1094342011428141, 2012.
Crueger, T., Stevens, B., and Brokopf, R.: The Madden-Julian Oscillation in ECHAM6 and the Introduction of an Objective MJO Metric, J. Climate, 26, 3241–3257, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00413.1, 2013.
DeMott, C. A., Wolding, B. O., Maloney, E. D., and Randall, D. A.: Atmospheric Mechanisms for MJO Decay Over the Maritime Continent, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 5188–5204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD026979, 2018.
Ferreira, R. N., Schubert, W. H., and Hack, J. J.: Dynamical aspects of twin tropical cyclones associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<0929:DAOTTC>2.0.CO;2, 1996.
Gonzalez, A. O. and Jiang, X.: Winter mean lower tropospheric moisture over the Maritime Continent as a climate model diagnostic metric for the propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2588–2596, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072430, 2017.
Goswami, B. N.: South asian monsoon, Springer, 2012.
Gottschalck, J., Wheeler, M., Weickmann, K., Vitart, F., Savage, N., Lin, H., Hendon, H., Waliser, D., Sperber, K., Nakagawa, M., Prestrelo, C., Flatau, M., and Higgins, W.: A Framework for Assessing Operational Madden-Julian Oscillation Forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1247–1258, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2816.1, 2010.
Hall, J. D., Matthews, A. J., and Karoly, D. J.: The modulation of tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region by the Madden-Julian oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 2970–2982, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2970:TMOTCA>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Hannah, W. M., Maloney, E. D., and Pritchard, M. S.: Consequences of systematic model drift in DYNAMO MJO hindcasts with SP-CAM and CAM5, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 7, 1051–1074, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000423, 2015.
Harris, L., Zhou, L., Lin, S.-J., Chen, J.-H., Chen, X., Gao, K., Morin, M., Rees, S., Sun, Y., Tong, M., Xiang, B., Bender, M., Benson, R., Cheng, K.-Y., Clark, S., Elbert, O. D., Hazelton, A., Huff, J. J., Kaltenbaugh, A., Liang, Z., Marchok, T., Shin, H. H., and Stern, W.: GFDL SHiELD: A Unified System for Weather-to-Seasonal Prediction, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2020MS002223, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002223, 2020.
Hendon, H. H. and Salby, M. L.: The Life Cycle of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2225–2237, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<2225:TLCOTM>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2023.
Hoffman, R. N. and Kalnay, E.: Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting, Tellus A, 35, 100–118, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v35i2.11425, 1983.
Hou, D., Kalnay, E., and Droegemeier, K. K.: Objective Verification of the SAMEX ’98 Ensemble Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 73–91, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0073:OVOTSE>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Hsu, H.-H.: Intraseasonal variability of the atmosphere–ocean–climate system: East Asian monsoon, in: Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System, edited by: Lau, W. K.-M. and Waliser, D. E., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 73–110, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13914-7_3, 2012.
Hsu, H. H. and Lee, M. Y.: Topographic effects on the eastward propagation and initiation of the Madden-Julian oscillation, J. Climate, 18, 795–809, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3292.1, 2005.
Hsu, P. and Li, T.: Role of the Boundary Layer Moisture Asymmetry in Causing the Eastward Propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Climate, 25, 4914–4931, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00310.1, 2012.
Huang, B., Liu, C., Banzon, V. F., Freeman, E., Graham, G., Hankins, W., Smith, T. M., and Zhang, H.-M.: NOAA 0.25-degree Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST), Version 2.1, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.25921/RE9P-PT57, 2020.
Hung, M.-P., Lin, J.-L., Wang, W., Kim, D., Shinoda, T., and Weaver, S. J.: MJO and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves Simulated by CMIP5 Climate Models, J. Climate, 26, 6185–6214, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00541.1, 2013.
Hunke, E. C., Lipscomb, W. H., Turner, A. K., Jeffery, N., and Elliott, S.: Cice: the los alamos sea ice model documentation and software user's manual version 4.1 la-cc-06-012, T-3 Fluid Dynamics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 675, 500, 2010.
Inness, P. M. and Slingo, J. M.: The interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with the Maritime Continent in a GCM, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 1645–1667, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.102, 2006.
Jeuken, A. B. M., Siegmund, P. C., Heijboer, L. C., Feichter, J., and Bengtsson, L.: On the potential of assimilating meteorological analyses in a global climate model for the purpose of model validation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 101, 16939–16950, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD01218, 1996.
Jiang, X.: Key processes for the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation based on multimodel simulations: Key Model Processes for MJO Propagation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 755–770, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025955, 2017.
Jiang, X., Adames, Á. F., Zhao, M., Waliser, D., and Maloney, E.: A Unified Moisture Mode Framework for Seasonality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Climate, 31, 4215–4224, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0671.1, 2018.
Kanamitsu, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Woollen, J., Yang, S.-K., Hnilo, J. J., Fiorino, M., and Potter, G. L.: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 1631–1644, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631, 2002.
Kemball-Cook, S. R. and Weare, B. C.: The Onset of Convection in the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Climate, 14, 780–793, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0780:TOOCIT>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Kerbyson, D. J. and Jones, P. W.: A Performance Model of the Parallel Ocean Program, Int. J. High Perform. C., 19, 261–276, https://doi.org/10.1177/1094342005056114, 2005.
Kim, D., Kug, J.-S., and Sobel, A. H.: Propagating versus Nonpropagating Madden-Julian Oscillation Events, J. Climate, 27, 111–125, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00084.1, 2014.
Kim, H.: MJO Propagation Processes and Mean Biases in the SubX and S2S Reforecasts, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 9314–9331, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031139, 2019.
Kim, H., Vitart, F., and Waliser, D. E.: Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Review, J. Climate, 31, 9425–9443, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0210.1, 2018.
Kim, H.-M.: The impact of the mean moisture bias on the key physics of MJO propagation in the ECMWF reforecast, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 7772–7784, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027005, 2017.
Kim, H.-M., Webster, P. J., Toma, V. E., and Kim, D.: Predictability and Prediction Skill of the MJO in Two Operational Forecasting Systems, J. Climate, 27, 5364–5378, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00480.1, 2014.
Lau, K.-M. and Chan, P. H.: Aspects of the 40–50 Day Oscillation during the Northern Summer as Inferred from Outgoing Longwave Radiation, Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 1354–1367, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1354:AOTDOD>2.0.CO;2, 1986.
Lau, W. K. M. and Waliser, D. E.: El Niño Southern Oscillation connection, in: Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 297–334, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13914-7_9, 2012.
Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson, S. C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z.-L., Levis, S., Sakaguchi, K., Bonan, G. B., and Slater, A. G.: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 3, M03001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS00045, 2011.
Leutbecher, M. and Palmer, T. N.: Ensemble forecasting, J. Comput. Phys., 227, 3515–3539, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2007.02.014, 2008.
Li, J., Bao, Q., Liu, Y., Wu, G., Wang, L., He, B., Wang, X., and Li, J.: Evaluation of FAMIL2 in Simulating the Climatology and Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 1117–1136, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001506, 2019.
Liebmann, B. and Smith, C. A.: Description of a Complete (Interpolated) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Dataset, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 1275–1277, 1996.
Lim, Y., Son, S.-W., and Kim, D.: MJO Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models, J. Climate, 31, 4075–4094, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0545.1, 2018.
Lin, H., Brunet, G., and Derome, J.: Forecast Skill of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Two Canadian Atmospheric Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 4130–4149, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2459.1, 2008.
Lin, S.-J.: A “Vertically Lagrangian” Finite-Volume Dynamical Core for Global Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 2293–2307, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<2293:AVLFDC>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Liu, F., Wang, B., Ouyang, Y., Wang, H., Qiao, S., Chen, G., and Dong, W.: Intraseasonal variability of global land monsoon precipitation and its recent trend, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 5, 30, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00253-7, 2022.
Liu, Y.: Dynamic MJO forecasts using an ensemble subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast system of IAP-CAS model, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10817813, 2024.
Liu, Y. Q.: Prediction of monthly-seasonal precipitation using coupled SVD patterns between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1827, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017709, 2003.
Madden, R. A. and Julian, P. R.: Detection of a 40–50 Day Oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702–708, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0702:DOADOI>2.0.CO;2, 1971.
Maloney, E. D.: An Intraseasonal Oscillation Composite Life Cycle in the NCAR CCM3.6 with Modified Convection, J. Climate, 15, 964–982, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0964:AIOCLC>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Mu, M., Duan, W. S., and Wang, B.: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 10, 493–501, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-10-493-2003, 2003.
Mureau, R., Molteni, F., and Palmer, T. N.: Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 299–323, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711951005, 1993.
Nasuno, T., Li, T., and Kikuchi, K.: Moistening Processes before the Convective Initiation of Madden-Julian Oscillation Events during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO Period, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 622–643, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00132.1, 2015.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Weather Service/NOAA/U.S. Department of Commerce: NCEP FNL Operational Model Global Tropospheric Analyses, continuing from July 1999, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory [data set], https://doi.org/10.5065/D6M043C6, 2000, updated daily.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Weather Service/NOAA/U.S. Department of Commerce: NCEP GFS 0.25 Degree Global Forecast Grids Historical Archive, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory [data set], https://doi.org/10.5065/D65D8PWK, 2015.
Neena, J. M., Lee, J. Y., Waliser, D., Wang, B., and Jiang, X.: Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE), J. Climate, 27, 4531–4543, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00624.1, 2014.
Nerger, L., Tang, Q., and Mu, L.: Efficient ensemble data assimilation for coupled models with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework: example of AWI-CM (AWI-CM-PDAF 1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4305–4321, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4305-2020, 2020.
Oleson, W., Lawrence, M., Bonan, B., Flanner, G., Kluzek, E., Lawrence, J., Levis, S., Swenson, C., Thornton, E., Dai, A., Decker, M., Dickinson, R., Feddema, J., Heald, L., Hoffman, F., Lamarque, J.-F., Mahowald, N., Niu, G.-Y., Qian, T., Randerson, J., Running, S., Sakaguchi, K., Slater, A., Stockli, R., Wang, A., Yang, Z.-L., Zeng, X., and Zeng, X.: Technical Description of version 4.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6FB50WZ, 2010.
Park, S. and Bretherton, C. S.: The University of Washington Shallow Convection and Moist Turbulence Schemes and Their Impact on Climate Simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model, J. Climate, 22, 3449–3469, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2557.1, 2009.
Pham, D. T.: Stochastic Methods for Sequential Data Assimilation in Strongly Nonlinear Systems, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 1194–1207, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1194:SMFSDA>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Putman, W. M. and Lin, S.-J.: Finite-volume transport on various cubed-sphere grids, J. Comput. Phys., 227, 55–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2007.07.022, 2007.
Rashid, H. A., Hendon, H. H., Wheeler, M. C., and Alves, O.: Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system, Clim. Dynam., 36, 649–661, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0754-x, 2011.
Raymond, D. J. and Fuchs, Ž.: Moisture Modes and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Climate, 22, 3031–3046, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2739.1, 2009.
Reynolds, R. W., Smith, T. M., Liu, C., Chelton, D. B., Casey, K. S., and Schlax, M. G.: Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature, J. Climate, 20, 5473–5496, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1, 2007.
Rousseeuw, P.: Silhouettes – a Graphical Aid to the Interpretation and Validation of Cluster-Analysis, J. Comput. Appl. Math., 20, 53–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0427(87)90125-7, 1987.
Rui, H. and Wang, B.: Development Characteristics and Dynamic Structure of Tropical Intraseasonal Convection Anomalies, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 357–379, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<0357:DCADSO>2.0.CO;2, 1990.
Vitart, F.: Madden—Julian Oscillation prediction and teleconnections in the S2S database, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 143, 2210–2220, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3079, 2017.
Vitart, F. and Molteni, F.: Dynamical Extended-Range Prediction of Early Monsoon Rainfall over India, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 1480–1492, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2761.1, 2009.
Vitart, F. and Molteni, F.: Simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 842–855, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.623, 2010.
Vitart, F., Ardilouze, C., Bonet, A., Brookshaw, A., Chen, M., Codorean, C., Déqué, M., Ferranti, L., Fucile, E., Fuentes, M., Hendon, H., Hodgson, J., Kang, H.-S., Kumar, A., Lin, H., Liu, G., Liu, X., Malguzzi, P., Mallas, I., Manoussakis, M., Mastrangelo, D., MacLachlan, C., McLean, P., Minami, A., Mladek, R., Nakazawa, T., Najm, S., Nie, Y., Rixen, M., Robertson, A. W., Ruti, P., Sun, C., Takaya, Y., Tolstykh, M., Venuti, F., Waliser, D., Woolnough, S., Wu, T., Won, D.-J., Xiao, H., Zaripov, R., and Zhang, L.: The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 163–173, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1, 2017 (data available at: https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets, last access: 1 July 2023).
Waliser, D. E., Lau, K. M., Stern, W., and Jones, C.: Potential Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 33–50, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-1-33, 2003.
Wang, B.: Dynamics of Tropical Low-Frequency Waves: An Analysis of the Moist Kelvin Wave, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2051–2065, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<2051:DOTLFW>2.0.CO;2, 1988.
Wang, B. and Lee, S.-S.: MJO Propagation Shaped by Zonal Asymmetric Structures: Results from 24 GCM Simulations, J. Climate, 30, 7933–7952, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0873.1, 2017.
Wang, B., Chen, G., and Liu, F.: Diversity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Sci. Adv., 5, eaax0220, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax0220, 2019.
Wang, W., Hung, M.-P., Weaver, S. J., Kumar, A., and Fu, X.: MJO prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2, Clim. Dyn., 42, 2509–2520, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1806-9, 2014.
Wheeler, M. C. and Hendon, H. H.: An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 1917–1932, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:AARMMI>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Wheeler, M. C., Hendon, H. H., Cleland, S., Meinke, H., and Donald, A.: Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Australian Rainfall and Circulation, J. Climate, 22, 1482–1498, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2595.1, 2009.
Wu, C.-H. and Hsu, H.-H.: Topographic Influence on the MJO in the Maritime Continent, J. Climate, 22, 5433–5448, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2825.1, 2009.
Wu, X., Deng, L., Song, X., Vettoretti, G., Peltier, W. R., and Zhang, G. J.: Impact of a modified convective scheme on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a coupled climate model: MJO AND ENSO SIMULATED BY A COUPLED GCM, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16823, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030637, 2007.
Xiang, B., Zhao, M., Jiang, X., Lin, S.-J., Li, T., Fu, X., and Vecchi, G.: The 3–4-Week MJO Prediction Skill in a GFDL Coupled Model, J. Climate, 28, 5351–5364, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0102.1, 2015.
Xiang, B., Harris, L., Delworth, T. L., Wang, B., Chen, G., Chen, J.-H., Clark, S. K., Cooke, W. F., Gao, K., Huff, J. J., Jia, L., Johnson, N. C., Kapnick, S. B., Lu, F., McHugh, C., Sun, Y., Tong, M., Yang, X., Zeng, F., Zhao, M., Zhou, L., and Zhou, X.: S2S Prediction in GFDL SPEAR: MJO Diversity and Teleconnections, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E463–E484, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0124.1, 2022.
Yang, C., Liu, J., and Xu, S.: Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Using a Newly Developed Fully Coupled Regional Model With the Assimilation of Satellite Sea Ice Observations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001938, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001938, 2020.
Zeng, L., Bao, Q., Wu, X., He, B., Yang, J., Wang, T., Liu, Y., Wu, G., and Liu, Y.: Impacts of humidity initialization on MJO prediction: A study in an operational sub-seasonal to seasonal system, Atmos. Res., 294, 106946, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106946, 2023.
Zhang, C.: Madden-Julian Oscillation, Rev. Geophys., 43, RG2003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000158, 2005.
Zhou, L. and Harris, L.: Integrated Dynamics-Physics Coupling for Weather to Climate Models: GFDL SHiELD With In-Line Microphysics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100519, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100519, 2022.
Zhou, L., Lin, S.-J., Chen, J.-H., Harris, L. M., Chen, X., and Rees, S. L.: Toward Convective-Scale Prediction within the Next Generation Global Prediction System, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 1225–1243, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0246.1, 2019.
Short summary
We give an overview of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics–Chinese Academy of Sciences subseasonal-to-seasonal ensemble forecasting system and Madden–Julian Oscillation forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its benefits but also biases, i.e., underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude, and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We provide a reason for these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.
We give an overview of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics–Chinese Academy of Sciences...
