Articles | Volume 17, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024
Model experiment description paper
 | 
23 Aug 2024
Model experiment description paper |  | 23 Aug 2024

Dynamical Madden–Julian Oscillation forecasts using an ensemble subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast system of the IAP-CAS model

Yangke Liu, Qing Bao, Bian He, Xiaofei Wu, Jing Yang, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Tao Zhu, Siyuan Zhou, Yao Tang, Ankang Qu, Yalan Fan, Anling Liu, Dandan Chen, Zhaoming Luo, Xing Hu, and Tongwen Wu

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1', Fei Liu, 29 Apr 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yangke Liu, 13 May 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1', Lucas Harris, 02 May 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yangke Liu, 13 May 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Yangke Liu on behalf of the Authors (16 May 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 May 2024) by Lele Shu
RR by Fei Liu (02 Jun 2024)
RR by Lucas Harris (03 Jun 2024)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (05 Jun 2024) by Lele Shu
AR by Yangke Liu on behalf of the Authors (05 Jun 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (10 Jun 2024) by Lele Shu
AR by Yangke Liu on behalf of the Authors (19 Jun 2024)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
We give an overview of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics–Chinese Academy of Sciences subseasonal-to-seasonal ensemble forecasting system and Madden–Julian Oscillation forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its benefits but also biases, i.e., underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude, and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We provide a reason for these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.