Articles | Volume 15, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022
Methods for assessment of models
 | Highlight paper
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20 Dec 2022
Methods for assessment of models | Highlight paper |  | 20 Dec 2022

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures

Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi

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Cited articles

Allen, M. R., Frame, D. J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J. A., Meinshausen, M., and Meinshausen, N.: Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne, Nature, 458, 1163–1166, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08019, 2009. 
Beusch, L., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020, 2020. 
Beusch, L., Nicholls, Z., Gudmundsson, L., Hauser, M., Meinshausen, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: coupling of MAGICC (v7.5.1) and MESMER (v0.8.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2085–2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022, 2022. 
Brecha, R. J., Ganti, G., Lamboll, R. D., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Hare, B., Lewis, J., Meinshausen, M., Schaeffer, M., Smith, C. J., and Gidden, M. J.: Institutional Decarbonisation Scenarios Evaluated Against the Paris Agreement 1.5 C Goal, Nat. Commun., 13, 4304, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1, 2022. 
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Executive editor
This paper provides key insight into the methodology of Working Group III of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on climate mitigation. The paper will be essential reading for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Short summary
Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source climate-assessment workflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.