Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 24
Articles | Volume 15, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 24
Methods for assessment of models
 | Highlight paper
 | 
20 Dec 2022
Methods for assessment of models | Highlight paper |  | 20 Dec 2022

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures

Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022-supplement

Data sets

Infiller database for silicone: IPCC AR6 WGIII version Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Christopher J. Smith, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Laura Wienpahl https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6390768

Scripts for "The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures" (1.0) J. S. Kikstra https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7304736

AR6 Scenarios Database hosted by IIASA Edward Byers, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5886911

Aneris v0.3.1 M. Gidden, J. Hörsch, Z. Nicholls, D. Huppmann, and J. Lewis https://github.com/iiasa/aneris/releases/tag/v0.3.1

Silicone v1.2.1 R. Lamboll, Z. Nicholls, J. Kikstra, and G. Ganti https://github.com/GranthamImperial/silicone/releases/tag/v1.2.1

OpenSCM Runner v0.9.1 Z. Nicholls, Z. Gieseke, J. Lewis, S. Willner, C. Smith, M. Pflüger, J. Kikstra, and M. Sandstad https://github.com/openscm/openscm-runner/releases/tag/v0.9.1

Model code and software

Climate assessment of long-term emissions pathways: IPCC AR6 WGIII version Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R.J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Christopher J. Smith, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Laura Wienpahl, Philip Hackstock https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6624519

Climate assessment of long-term emissions pathways: IPCC AR6 WGIII version (v0.1.1) Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Christopher J. Smith, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Laura Wienpahl, and Philip Hackstock https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6782457

FaIR v1.6.2 C. Smith, Z. Nicholls, and R. Gieseke https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4465032

FaIR v1.6.2 calibrated and constrained parameter set C. Smith https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5513021

MAGICC7 download page M. Meinshausen, J. Lewis, and Z. Nicholls https://magicc.org/download/magicc7

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Executive editor
This paper provides key insight into the methodology of Working Group III of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on climate mitigation. The paper will be essential reading for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
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Short summary
Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source climate-assessment workflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Read more