Articles | Volume 15, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5567-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5567-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
20 Jul 2022
Development and technical paper |
| 20 Jul 2022
| 20 Jul 2022
Improved representation of plant physiology in the JULES-vn5.6 land surface model: photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and thermal acclimation
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Lina M. Mercado
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter,
Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK
Doug B. Clark
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Chris Huntingford
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Christopher M. Taylor
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
National Centre for Earth Observation, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Pier Luigi Vidale
Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Atmospheric
Science, Reading University, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
Patrick C. McGuire
Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Atmospheric
Science, Reading University, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
Markus Todt
Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Atmospheric
Science, Reading University, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
Sonja Folwell
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Valiyaveetil Shamsudheen Semeena
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Belinda E. Medlyn
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Related authors
No articles found.
Ehsan Modiri, Oldrich Rakovec, Pallav Kumar Shrestha, Almudena García-García, Leandro Avila, Katie Blackford, Elizabeth Cooper, Bram Droppers, Paolo Filippucci, Milan Fischer, Matěj Orság, Pietro Stradiotti, Luca Brocca, Douglas B. Clark, Wouter Dorigo, Stefan Kollet, Jian Peng, Niko Wanders, and Luis Samaniego
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1012, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Drought impacts water supply, agriculture, and ecosystems, yet hydrological models often disagree on when and where drought occurs. This study tested whether satellite observations can improve how models represent soil moisture drought in the Rhine River basin. Using several models and major drought events, we show that satellite data improve spatial realism and reveal important differences among models, helping to better understand uncertainty in drought monitoring and early warning.
Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Joseph Clarke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-550, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of climate change triggering tipping points is a concern. While Earth System Models (ESMs) predict these points, their timing often varies. Equations of nonlinear dynamical systems can model tipping, hysteresis, and inertia, enabling comparison with ESMs. We propose a method to map tipping timing estimates onto a dynamical system that simulates a full hysteresis loop. We focus on solutions to the equation under overshoot forcing in global temperature and different inertia levels.
Ségolène Berthou, Juan Maria Castillo, Vivian Fraser-Leonhardt, Sana Mahmood, Nefeli Makrygianni, Alex Arnold, Claudio Sanchez, Huw W. Lewis, Dale Partridge, Martin Best, Lucy Bricheno, Helen Davies, Douglas Clark, James R. Clark, Jeff Polton, Andrew Saulter, Chris J. Short, Jonathan Tinker, and Simon Tucker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6216, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The UK’s new RCS-UKC4 system combines atmosphere, ocean, waves, land, rivers, and biogeochemistry models to improve coastal weather and climate predictions. It offers better storm wave predictions, more accurate river flows, and captures rapid sea-level changes. These advances help predict multiple hazards more reliably, supporting safer communities and helping better planning.
Andrew J. Nicoll, Hannah M. Christensen, Chris Huntingford, and Doug Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6123, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use artificial intelligence to learn simple equations from historical climate data that describe how North Atlantic ocean temperature, air pressure and rainfall vary and influence each other over decades. Analysing the model's behaviour and equation terms, we find rainfall strongly feeds back on both the ocean and the atmosphere. These interactions are well captured by the models and allow rainfall to be predicted over the ocean, and nearby regions such as Europe over coming decades.
Bethan L. Harris, Christopher M. Taylor, Wouter Dorigo, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Darren Ghent, and Iván Noguera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 6917–6933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6917-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An improved understanding of land-atmosphere coupling processes during flash (rapid-onset) droughts is needed to aid the development of forecasts for these events. We use satellite observations to investigate the surface energy budget during flash droughts globally. The most intense events show a perturbed surface energy budget months before onset. In some regions, vegetation observations 1–2 months before onset provide information on the likelihood of heat extremes during an event.
Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Rebecca Varney, Mark S. Williamson, and Peter Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2087–2100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An increase in CO2 in the atmosphere warms the climate through the greenhouse effect, but also leads to uptake of CO2 by the land and ocean. However, the warming is also expected to suppress carbon uptake. If this suppression were strong enough, it could overwhelm the uptake of carbon, leading to a runaway feedback loop causing severe global warming. We find it is possible that this runaway could be relevant in complex climate models and even at the end of the last ice age.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Kjetil Aas, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicolas Bellouin, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Carla F. Berghoff, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Ida B. M. Brasika, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Nathan O. Collier, Thomas H. Colligan, Margot Cronin, Laique Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Matt P. Enright, Kazutaka Enyo, Michael Erb, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Filippa Fransner, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Bertrand Guenet, Özgür Gürses, Kirsty Harrington, Ian Harris, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Akihiko Ito, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Yawen Kong, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Charles Koven, Taro Kunimitsu, Xin Lan, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Zhu Liu, Claire Lo Monaco, Lei Ma, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Joe Melton, Natalie Monacci, Erwan Monier, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Jens D. Müller, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Lorna R. Nayagam, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nutzel, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Naiqing Pan, Sudhanshu Pandey, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Pierre A. G. Regnier, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Ingunn Skjelvan, T. Luke Smallman, Victoria Spada, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Didier Swingedouw, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Xiangjun Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Erik van Ooijen, Guido van der Werf, Sebastiaan J. van de Velde, Anthony Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-659, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-659, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2025). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7735–7761, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7735-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7735-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Next Generation of Earth Modeling Systems project (nextGEMS) developed two Earth system models that use horizontal grid spacing of 10 km and finer, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS simulated the Earth System climate over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Patric J. L. Boardman, Joseph Clarke, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, Christopher D. Jones, and Mark S. Williamson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4899, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate sensitivity quantifies how much Earth warms for a given radiative forcing, and can be characterised by TCR. Although the IPCC estimates the most likely TCR to be 1.8 K, some models predict values >2.4 K. Record warmth in 2023–2024 raises questions as to whether the TCR may indeed be larger than previously suggested. Using up-to-date data, we estimate the TCR to be 1.81 K. We also show that future warming falls within the low–mid model range, making the 2 °C Paris target still feasible.
Kristian Schufft, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, Lin Yu, Mingkai Jiang, Belinda E. Medlyn, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4286, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Root exudation describes a process in which plants allocate labile carbon through roots into soils, thereby influencing microbial carbon and nutrient cycling. We implemented root exudation in a computer model that simulates ecosystem processes. Increased atmospheric CO2 led to increased root exudation, but the additional input was partially offset by enhanced microbial respiration. Our research brings new perspectives in modelling soil carbon and nutrient cycling in forests under increasing CO2.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Kevin Hodges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4443, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate changes in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation in the Philippines using high-resolution pseudo-global warming simulations. Analysis of Haiyan, Bopha, and Mangkhut shows robust increases in rainfall under future warming, with nonlinear deviations from Clausius–Clapeyron scaling driven by TC intensity and structural changes, underscoring evolving rainfall hazards in a warming climate.
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate tipping points are not committed upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.
Sebastian Gonzalez-Caro, Mirindi Eric Dusenge, Zorayda Restrepo, Andrew J. Cox, Ian P. Hartley, Patrick Meir, Adriana Sanchez, Daniel Ruiz-Carrascal, and Lina M. Mercado
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3434, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated photosynthetic trait variability in montane and lowland tree species using a leaf-level model and transplant experiments across three elevations in the tropical Andes. Intraspecific variation in Vcmax and Jmax proved key for accurate modeling. PAR and temperature limited photosynthesis at 14 °C, while VPD was limiting at 22 °C. Using lowland parameters underestimates montane photosynthesis by up to 65 %. Models should include intra- and interspecific variability.
Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Nicoll, Cornelia Klein, and Jawairia A. Ahmad
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 475–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
AI is impacting science, providing key data insights, but most algorithms are statistical requiring cautious "out-of-sample" extrapolation. Yet climate research concerns predicting future climatic states. We consider a new method of AI-led equation discovery. Equations offer process interpretation and more robust predictions. We recommend this method for climate analysis, suggesting illustrative application to atmospheric convection, land–atmosphere CO2 flux, and global ocean circulation models.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jessica Stacey, Richard Betts, Andrew Hartley, Lina Mercado, and Nicola Gedney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-51, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Plants typically transpire less with rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, leaving more water in the ground for human use, but many future water scarcity assessments ignore this effect. We use a land surface model to examine how plant responses to carbon dioxide and climate change affect future water scarcity. Our results suggest that including these plant responses increases overall water availability for most people, highlighting the importance of their inclusion in future water scarcity studies.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Bethan L. Harris, Tristan Quaife, Christopher M. Taylor, and Phil P. Harris
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1019–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1019-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1019-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The response of vegetation productivity to rainfall is a crucial process linking the water and carbon cycles and influencing the evolution of the climate system. However, there are many uncertainties in its representation in Earth system models. We show that the vegetation productivity responses to short-term rainfall events are very different between models due to their differing sensitivities to water availability. We also evaluate the models against a range of observational products.
Mark S. Williamson, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, and Femke J. M. M. Nijsse
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 829–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-829-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-829-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) have generally got statistically weaker in the latest set of state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP6) compared to past sets (CMIP5). We look at why this weakening happened for one particular study (Cox et al, 2018) and attribute it to an assumption made in the theory that when corrected for restores there is a stronger relationship between predictor and ECS.
Omar V. Müller, Patrick C. McGuire, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Ed Hawkins
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2179–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates how rivers are projected to change in the near future compared to the recent past in the context of a warming world. We show that important rivers of the world will notably change their flows, mainly during peaks, exceeding the variations that rivers used to exhibit. Such large changes may produce more frequent floods, alter hydropower generation, and potentially affect the ocean's circulation.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Emma L. Robinson, Chris Huntingford, Valyaveetil Shamsudheen Semeena, and James M. Bullock
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5371–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5371-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CHESS-SCAPE is a suite of high-resolution climate projections for the UK to 2080, derived from United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), designed to support climate impact modelling. It contains four realisations of four scenarios of future greenhouse gas levels (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5), with and without bias correction to historical data. The variables are available at 1 km resolution and a daily time step, with monthly, seasonal and annual means and 20-year mean-monthly time slices.
Jon Seddon, Ag Stephens, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6689–6700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6689-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6689-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The PRIMAVERA project aimed to develop a new generation of advanced global climate models. The large volume of data generated was uploaded to a central analysis facility (CAF) and was analysed by 100 PRIMAVERA scientists there. We describe how the PRIMAVERA project used the CAF's facilities to enable users to analyse this large dataset. We believe that similar, multi-institute, big-data projects could also use a CAF to efficiently share, organise and analyse large volumes of data.
Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, Stephen Sitch, Nadine Unger, Johan Uddling, Lina M. Mercado, Cheng Gong, Zhaozhong Feng, Huiyi Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yang Cao, Yadong Lei, Alexander W. Cheesman, Yansen Xu, and Maria Carolina Duran Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2261–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Plants have been found to respond differently to O3, but the variations in the sensitivities have rarely been explained nor fully implemented in large-scale assessment. This study proposes a new O3 damage scheme with leaf mass per area to unify varied sensitivities for all plant species. Our assessment reveals an O3-induced reduction of 4.8 % in global GPP, with the highest reduction of >10 % for cropland, suggesting an emerging risk of crop yield loss under the threat of O3 pollution.
Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson, Joseph J. Clarke, and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 433–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Emergent constraints (ECs) reduce the spread of projections between climate models. ECs estimate changes to climate features impacting adaptation policy, and with this high profile, the method is under scrutiny. Asking
What is an EC?, we suggest they are often the discovery of parameters that characterise hidden large-scale equations that climate models solve implicitly. We present this conceptually via two examples. Our analysis implies possible new paths to link ECs and physical processes.
Julia Crook, Cornelia Klein, Sonja Folwell, Christopher M. Taylor, Douglas J. Parker, Adama Bamba, and Kouakou Kouadio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 229–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-229-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate recent deforestation in West Africa and use a climate model allowing explicit convection to determine impacts on early season rainfall. We find enhanced rainfall over deforestation, in line with recent observational results, due to changes in circulation rather than humidity, showing potential for future studies. Local changes depend on initial soil moisture, deforestation extent, and ocean proximity, with sea breezes shifting inland where surface friction decreased.
Gang Liu, Shushi Peng, Chris Huntingford, and Yi Xi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1277–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Due to computational limits, lower-complexity models (LCMs) were developed as a complementary tool for accelerating comprehensive Earth system models (ESMs) but still lack a good precipitation emulator for LCMs. Here, we developed a data-calibrated precipitation emulator (PREMU), a computationally effective way to better estimate historical and simulated precipitation by current ESMs. PREMU has potential applications related to land surface processes and their interactions with climate change.
Thibault Hallouin, Richard J. Ellis, Douglas B. Clark, Simon J. Dadson, Andrew G. Hughes, Bryan N. Lawrence, Grenville M. S. Lister, and Jan Polcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9177–9196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9177-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new framework for modelling the water cycle in the land system has been implemented. It considers the hydrological cycle as three interconnected components, bringing flexibility in the choice of the physical processes and their spatio-temporal resolutions. It is designed to foster collaborations between land surface, hydrological, and groundwater modelling communities to develop the next-generation of land system models for integration in Earth system models.
Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Margarita Saft, Tim J. Peterson, Andrew Western, Lawrence Band, Cuan Petheram, Sandra Dharmadi, Kim Seong Tan, Lu Zhang, Patrick Lane, Anthony Kiem, Lucy Marshall, Anne Griebel, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dongryeol Ryu, Giancarlo Bonotto, Conrad Wasko, Anna Ukkola, Clare Stephens, Andrew Frost, Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, Patricia Saco, Hongxing Zheng, Francis Chiew, Edoardo Daly, Glen Walker, R. Willem Vervoort, Justin Hughes, Luca Trotter, Brad Neal, Ian Cartwright, and Rory Nathan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6073–6120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, we have seen multi-year droughts tending to cause shifts in the relationship between rainfall and streamflow. In shifted catchments that have not recovered, an average rainfall year produces less streamflow today than it did pre-drought. We take a multi-disciplinary approach to understand why these shifts occur, focusing on Australia's over-10-year Millennium Drought. We evaluate multiple hypotheses against evidence, with particular focus on the key role of groundwater processes.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Brendan Byrne, Junjie Liu, Yonghong Yi, Abhishek Chatterjee, Sourish Basu, Rui Cheng, Russell Doughty, Frédéric Chevallier, Kevin W. Bowman, Nicholas C. Parazoo, David Crisp, Xing Li, Jingfeng Xiao, Stephen Sitch, Bertrand Guenet, Feng Deng, Matthew S. Johnson, Sajeev Philip, Patrick C. McGuire, and Charles E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 19, 4779–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Plants draw CO2 from the atmosphere during the growing season, while respiration releases CO2 to the atmosphere throughout the year, driving seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 that can be observed by satellites, such as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2). Using OCO-2 XCO2 data and space-based constraints on plant growth, we show that permafrost-rich northeast Eurasia has a strong seasonal release of CO2 during the autumn, hinting at an unexpectedly large respiration signal from soils.
Louise J. Slater, Chris Huntingford, Richard F. Pywell, John W. Redhead, and Elizabeth J. Kendon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1377–1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work considers how wheat yields are affected by weather conditions during the three main wheat growth stages in the UK. Impacts are strongest in years with compound weather extremes across multiple growth stages. Future climate projections are beneficial for wheat yields, on average, but indicate a high risk of unseen weather conditions which farmers may struggle to adapt to and mitigate against.
Flossie Brown, Gerd A. Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Susanne Bauer, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Makoto Deushi, Inês Dos Santos Vieira, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, James Haywood, James Keeble, Lina M. Mercado, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Hans Verbeeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12331–12352, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Surface ozone can decrease plant productivity and impair human health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface ozone due to climate change over South America and Africa using Earth system models. We find that if the climate were to change according to the worst-case scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of ozone exposure, but other areas will experience a climate benefit.
Mahdi André Nakhavali, Lina M. Mercado, Iain P. Hartley, Stephen Sitch, Fernanda V. Cunha, Raffaello di Ponzio, Laynara F. Lugli, Carlos A. Quesada, Kelly M. Andersen, Sarah E. Chadburn, Andy J. Wiltshire, Douglas B. Clark, Gyovanni Ribeiro, Lara Siebert, Anna C. M. Moraes, Jéssica Schmeisk Rosa, Rafael Assis, and José L. Camargo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5241–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In tropical ecosystems, the availability of rock-derived elements such as P can be very low. Thus, without a representation of P cycling, tropical forest responses to rising atmospheric CO2 conditions in areas such as Amazonia remain highly uncertain. We introduced P dynamics and its interactions with the N and P cycles into the JULES model. Our results highlight the potential for high P limitation and therefore lower CO2 fertilization capacity in the Amazon forest with low-fertility soils.
Toby R. Marthews, Simon J. Dadson, Douglas B. Clark, Eleanor M. Blyth, Garry D. Hayman, Dai Yamazaki, Olivia R. E. Becher, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Catherine Prigent, and Carlos Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3151–3175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable data on global inundated areas remain uncertain. By matching a leading global data product on inundation extents (GIEMS) against predictions from a global hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood), we found small but consistent and non-random biases in well-known tropical wetlands (Sudd, Pantanal, Amazon and Congo). These result from known limitations in the data and the models used, which shows us how to improve our ability to make critical predictions of inundation events in the future.
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
Ambrogio Volonté, Andrew G. Turner, Reinhard Schiemann, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Nicholas P. Klingaman
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 575–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse the complex seasonal evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. Using reanalysis data, we show the importance of the interaction between tropical and extratropical air masses converging at the monsoon front, particularly during its northward progression. The upper-level flow pattern (e.g. the westerly jet) controls the balance between the airstreams and thus the associated rainfall. This framework provides a basis for studies of extreme events and climate variability.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Mathilda Hancock, Stephen Sitch, Fabian Jörg Fischer, Jérôme Chave, Michael O'Sullivan, Dominic Fawcett, and Lina María Mercado
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-87, 2022
Publication in BG not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Global vegetation models often underestimate the spatial variability of carbon stored in the Amazon forest. This paper demonstrates that including spatially varying tree mortality rates, as opposed to a homogeneous rate, in one model, significantly improves its simulations of the forest carbon store. To overcome the limited resolution of tree mortality data, this research presents a simple method of calculating mortality rates across Amazonia using a dependence on wood density.
Chandan Sarangi, TC Chakraborty, Sachchidanand Tripathi, Mithun Krishnan, Ross Morrison, Jonathan Evans, and Lina M. Mercado
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3615–3629, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3615-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3615-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Transpiration fluxes by vegetation are reduced under heat stress to conserve water. However, in situ observations over northern India show that the strength of the inverse association between transpiration and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit is weakening in the presence of heavy aerosol loading. This finding not only implicates the significant role of aerosols in modifying the evaporative fraction (EF) but also warrants an in-depth analysis of the aerosol–plant–temperature–EF continuum.
Sami W. Rifai, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Lucas A. Cernusak, Patrick Meir, Belinda E. Medlyn, and Andy J. Pitman
Biogeosciences, 19, 491–515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Australia's woody ecosystems have experienced widespread greening despite a warming climate and repeated record-breaking droughts and heat waves. Increasing atmospheric CO2 increases plant water use efficiency, yet quantifying the CO2 effect is complicated due to co-occurring effects of global change. Here we harmonized a 38-year satellite record to separate the effects of climate change, land use change, and disturbance to quantify the CO2 fertilization effect on the greening phenomenon.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Louis-Philippe Caron, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Oliver Gutjahr, Marie-Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Malcolm J. Roberts, Retish Senan, Laurent Terray, Etienne Tourigny, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 269–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models do not fully reproduce observations: they show differences (biases) in regional temperature, precipitation, or cloud cover. Reducing model biases is important to increase our confidence in their ability to reproduce present and future climate changes. Model realism is set by its resolution: the finer it is, the more physical processes and interactions it can resolve. We here show that increasing resolution of up to ~ 25 km can help reduce model biases but not remove them entirely.
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt, Reinhard Schiemann, Andrew G. Turner, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6381–6405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall poses many challenges because of its multi-scale nature. We evaluate three setups of a 14 km global climate model against observations to see if they improve simulated rainfall. We do this over catchment basins of different sizes to estimate how model performance depends on spatial scale. Using explicit convection improves rainfall diurnal cycle, yet more model tuning is needed to improve mean and intensity biases in simulated summer rainfall.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Anthony P. Walker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 5639–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, yet the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations by an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models over Australia and highlighted a number of key areas that lead to model divergence on both short (inter-annual) and long (decadal) timescales.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Gabriel M. P. Perez, Pier Luigi Vidale, Nicholas P. Klingaman, and Thomas C. M. Martin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-475-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-475-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Much of the rainfall in tropical regions comes from organised cloud bands called convergence zones (CZs). These bands have hundreds of kilometers. In South America (SA), they cause intense rain for long periods of time. To study these systems, we need to define and identify them with computer code. We propose a definition of CZs based on the the pathways of air, selecting regions where air masses originated in separated regions meet. This method identifies important mechanisms of rain in SA.
Anna B. Harper, Karina E. Williams, Patrick C. McGuire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, Debbie Hemming, Anne Verhoef, Chris Huntingford, Lucy Rowland, Toby Marthews, Cleiton Breder Eller, Camilla Mathison, Rodolfo L. B. Nobrega, Nicola Gedney, Pier Luigi Vidale, Fred Otu-Larbi, Divya Pandey, Sebastien Garrigues, Azin Wright, Darren Slevin, Martin G. De Kauwe, Eleanor Blyth, Jonas Ardö, Andrew Black, Damien Bonal, Nina Buchmann, Benoit Burban, Kathrin Fuchs, Agnès de Grandcourt, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Leonardo Montagnani, Yann Nouvellon, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3269–3294, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated 10 representations of soil moisture stress in the JULES land surface model against site observations of GPP and latent heat flux. Increasing the soil depth and plant access to deep soil moisture improved many aspects of the simulations, and we recommend these settings in future work using JULES. In addition, using soil matric potential presents the opportunity to include parameters specific to plant functional type to further improve modeled fluxes.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Zichong Chen, Junjie Liu, Daven K. Henze, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kelley C. Wells, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Emilie Joetzjer, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Hanqin Tian, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Scot M. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6663–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite observes atmospheric CO2 globally. We use a multiple regression and inverse model to quantify the relationships between OCO-2 and environmental drivers within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. Our results point to limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to inform key relationships that are very uncertain in process-based models.
Cited articles
Atkin, O. K., Evans, J. R., and Siebke, K.: Relationship between the
inhibition of leaf respiration by light and enhancement of leaf dark
respiration following light treatment, Funct. Plant Biol., 25,
437–443, https://doi.org/10.1071/PP97159, 1998.
Atkin, O. K., Evans, J. R., Ball, M. C., Lambers, H., and Pons, T. L.: Leaf
Respiration of Snow Gum in the Light and Dark. Interactions between
Temperature and Irradiance1, Plant Physiol., 122, 915–924,
https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.122.3.915, 2000.
Atkin, O. K., Scheurwater, I., and Pons, T. L.: High thermal acclimation
potential of both photosynthesis and respiration in two lowland Plantago
species in contrast to an alpine congeneric, Glob. Change Biol., 12,
500–515, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01114.x, 2006.
Ball, M. C., Woodrow, I. E., and Berry, J. A.: A model predicting stomatal
conductance and its contribution to the control of photosynthesis under
different environmental conditions, in: Progress in Photosynthesis Research, edited by: Biggins, J., Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, Dordrecht, the Netherlands,
221–224, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-0519-6_48, 1987.
Benomar, L., Lamhamedi, M. S., Pepin, S., Rainville, A., Lambert, M.-C.,
Margolis, H. A., Bousquet, J., and Beaulieu, J.: Thermal acclimation of
photosynthesis and respiration of southern and northern white spruce seed
sources tested along a regional climatic gradient indicates limited
potential to cope with temperature warming, Ann. Bot.-London, 121, 443–457,
https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcx174, 2017.
Bernacchi, C. J., Singsaas, E. L., Pimentel, C., Portis Jr., A. R., and Long,
S. P.: Improved temperature response functions for models of Rubisco-limited
photosynthesis, Plant Cell Environ., 24, 253–259,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.2001.00668.x, 2001.
Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Clark, D. B., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Ménard, C. B., Edwards, J. M., Hendry, M. A., Porson, A., Gedney, N., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Cox, P. M., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Harding, R. J.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011.
Betts, R. A., Boucher, O., Collins, M., Cox, P. M., Falloon, P. D., Gedney,
N., Hemming, D. L., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., Sexton, D. M. H., and
Webb, M. J.: Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses
to increasing carbon dioxide, Nature, 448, 1037–1041, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06045,
2007.
Blyth, E., Clark, D. B., Ellis, R., Huntingford, C., Los, S., Pryor, M., Best, M., and Sitch, S.: A comprehensive set of benchmark tests for a land surface model of simultaneous fluxes of water and carbon at both the global and seasonal scale, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 255–269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-255-2011, 2011.
Booth, B. B. B., Jones, C. D., Collins, M., Totterdell, I. J., Cox, P. M.,
Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Betts, R. A., Harris, G. R., and Lloyd, J.: High
sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes,
Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024002,
2012.
Braghiere, R. K., Quaife, T., Black, E., He, L., and Chen, J.:
Underestimation of global photosynthesis in Earth system models due to
representation of vegetation structure, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 33,
1358–1369, 2019.
Braghiere, R. K., Quaife, T., Black, E., Ryu, Y., Chen, Q., De Kauwe, M. G.,
and Baldocchi, D.: Influence of sun zenith angle on canopy clumping and the
resulting impacts on photosynthesis, Agr. Forest Meteorol.,
291, 108065, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108065, 2020.
Braghiere, R. K., Wang, Y., Doughty, R., Sousa, D., Magney, T., Widlowski,
J.-L., Longo, M., Bloom, A. A., Worden, J., Gentine, P., and Frankenberg,
C.: Accounting for canopy structure improves hyperspectral radiative
transfer and sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence representations in a new
generation Earth System model, Remote Sens. Environ., 261, 112497,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2021.112497, 2021.
Carter, K. R., Wood, T. E., Reed, S. C., Schwartz, E. C., Reinsel, M. B.,
Yang, X., and Cavaleri, M. A.: Photosynthetic and Respiratory Acclimation of
Understory Shrubs in Response to in situ Experimental Warming of a Wet
Tropical Forest, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 3, 576320,
https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2020.576320, 2020.
Carter, K. R., Wood, T. E., Reed, S. C., Butts, K. M., and Cavaleri, M. A.:
Experimental warming across a tropical forest canopy height gradient reveals
minimal photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation, Plant Cell
Environ., 44, 2879–2897, https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.14134, 2021.
Chen, M. I. N. and Zhuang, Q.: Modelling temperature acclimation effects on
the carbon dynamics of forest ecosystems in the conterminous United States,
Tellus B, 65, 19156,
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v65i0.19156, 2013.
Clark, D. B.: JULES-VN5.6_acclimation, MetOffice [code], https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/jules/browser/main/branches/dev/douglasclark/vn5.6_acclimation, last access: 14 July 2022.
Clark, D. B., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Jones, C. D., Gedney, N., Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Harding, R. J., Huntingford, C., and Cox, P. M.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011, 2011.
Collatz, G., Ribas-Carbo, M., and Berry, J.: Coupled Photosynthesis-Stomatal
Conductance Model for Leaves of C4 Plants, Funct. Plant Biol.,
19, 519–538, https://doi.org/10.1071/PP9920519, 1992.
Collatz, G. J., Ball, J. T., Grivet, C., and Berry, J. A.: Physiological and
environmental regulation of stomatal conductance, photosynthesis and
transpiration: a model that includes a laminar boundary layer, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 54, 107–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(91)90002-8, 1991.
Cox, P. M., Huntingford, C., and Harding, R. J.: A canopy conductance and
photosynthesis model for use in a GCM land surface scheme, J.
Hydrol., 212–213, 79–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00203-0, 1998.
Croft, H., Chen, J. M., Luo, X., Bartlett, P., Chen, B., and Staebler, R.
M.: Leaf chlorophyll content as a proxy for leaf photosynthetic capacity,
Glob. Change Biol., 23, 3513–3524, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13599, 2017.
Cruz, F. T., Pitman, A. J., and Wang, Y. P.: Can the stomatal response to
higher atmospheric carbon dioxide explain the unusual temperatures during
the 2002 Murray-Darling Basin drought?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D02101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012767, 2010.
Cunningham, S. C. and Read, J.: Do temperate rainforest trees have a greater
ability to acclimate to changing temperatures than tropical rainforest
trees?, New Phytol., 157, 55–64, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1469-8137.2003.00652.x, 2003.
Damour, G., Simonneau, T., Cochard, H., and Urban, L.: An overview of models
of stomatal conductance at the leaf level, Plant Cell Environ., 33,
1419–1438, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.2010.02181.x, 2010.
de Arellano, J. V.-G., van Heerwaarden, C. C., and Lelieveld, J.: Modelled
suppression of boundary-layer clouds by plants in a CO2-rich atmosphere,
Nat. Geosci., 5, 701–704, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1554, 2012.
De Kauwe, M. G., Medlyn, B. E., Zaehle, S., Walker, A. P., Dietze, M. C.,
Hickler, T., Jain, A. K., Luo, Y., Parton, W. J., Prentice, I. C., Smith,
B., Thornton, P. E., Wang, S., Wang, Y.-P., Wårlind, D., Weng, E.,
Crous, K. Y., Ellsworth, D. S., Hanson, P. J., Seok Kim, H.-S., Warren, J.
M., Oren, R., and Norby, R. J.: Forest water use and water use efficiency at
elevated CO2: a model-data intercomparison at two contrasting temperate
forest FACE sites, Glob. Change Biol., 19, 1759–1779, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12164,
2013.
De Kauwe, M. G., Kala, J., Lin, Y.-S., Pitman, A. J., Medlyn, B. E., Duursma, R. A., Abramowitz, G., Wang, Y.-P., and Miralles, D. G.: A test of an optimal stomatal conductance scheme within the CABLE land surface model, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 431–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-431-2015, 2015.
Doughty, C. E. and Goulden, M. L.: Are tropical forests near a high
temperature threshold?, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo.,
113, G00B07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000632, 2008.
Drake, J. E., Aspinwall, M. J., Pfautsch, S., Rymer, P. D., Reich, P. B.,
Smith, R. A., Crous, K. Y., Tissue, D. T., Ghannoum, O., and Tjoelker, M.
G.: The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to
tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species, Glob.
Change Biol., 21, 459–472, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12729, 2015.
Dusenge, M. E., Madhavji, S., and Way, D. A.: Contrasting acclimation
responses to elevated CO2 and warming between an evergreen and a
deciduous boreal conifer, Glob. Change Biol., 26, 3639–3657,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15084, 2020.
Dusenge, M. E., Wittemann, M., Mujawamariya, M., Ntawuhiganayo, E. B.,
Zibera, E., Ntirugulirwa, B., Way, D. A., Nsabimana, D., Uddling, J., and
Wallin, G.: Limited thermal acclimation of photosynthesis in tropical
montane tree species, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 4860–4878,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15790, 2021.
Eller, C. B., Rowland, L., Mencuccini, M., Rosas, T., Williams, K., Harper,
A., Medlyn, B. E., Wagner, Y., Klein, T., Teodoro, G. S., Oliveira, R. S.,
Matos, I. S., Rosado, B. H. P., Fuchs, K., Wohlfahrt, G., Montagnani, L.,
Meir, P., Sitch, S., and Cox, P. M.: Stomatal optimization based on xylem
hydraulics (SOX) improves land surface model simulation of vegetation
responses to climate, New Phytol., 226, 1622–1637, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16419,
2020.
Erb, K.-H., Kastner, T., Plutzar, C., Bais, A. L. S., Carvalhais, N.,
Fetzel, T., Gingrich, S., Haberl, H., Lauk, C., Niedertscheider, M.,
Pongratz, J., Thurner, M., and Luyssaert, S.: Unexpectedly large impact of
forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass, Nature, 553,
73–76, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25138, 2018.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Farquhar, G. D., von Caemmerer, S., and Berry, J. A.: A biochemical model of
photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species, Planta, 149, 78–90,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00386231, 1980.
Franks, P. J., Berry, J. A., Lombardozzi, D. L., and Bonan, G. B.: Stomatal
Function across Temporal and Spatial Scales: Deep-Time Trends,
Land-Atmosphere Coupling and Global Models, Plant Physiol., 174, 583–602,
https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.17.00287, 2017.
Franks, P. J., Bonan, G. B., Berry, J. A., Lombardozzi, D. L., Holbrook, N.
M., Herold, N., and Oleson, K. W.: Comparing optimal and empirical stomatal
conductance models for application in Earth system models, Glob. Change
Biol., 24, 5708–5723, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14445, 2018.
Friedlingstein, P., Meinshausen, M., Arora, V. K., Jones, C. D., Anav, A.,
Liddicoat, S. K., and Knutti, R.: Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections
due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks, J. Climate, 27, 511–526,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00579.1, 2014.
Gedney, N., Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Boucher, O., Huntingford, C., and
Stott, P. A.: Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental
river runoff records, Nature, 439, 835–838, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04504, 2006.
Guha, A., Han, J., Cummings, C., McLennan, D. A., and Warren, J. M.:
Differential ecophysiological responses and resilience to heat wave events
in four co-occurring temperate tree species, Environ. Res. Lett.,
13, 065008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabcd8, 2018.
Gunderson, C. A., Norby, R. J., and Wullschleger, S. D.: Acclimation of
photosynthesis and respiration to simulated climatic warming in northern and
southern populations of Acer saccharum: laboratory and field evidence, Tree
Physiol., 20, 87–96, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/20.2.87, 2000.
Gunderson, C. A., O'Hara, K. H., Campion, C. M., Walker, A. V., and Edwards,
N. T.: Thermal plasticity of photosynthesis: the role of acclimation in
forest responses to a warming climate, Glob. Change Biol., 16, 2272–2286,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02090.x, 2010.
Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.: High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016.
Harper, A. B., Cox, P. M., Friedlingstein, P., Wiltshire, A. J., Jones, C. D., Sitch, S., Mercado, L. M., Groenendijk, M., Robertson, E., Kattge, J., Bönisch, G., Atkin, O. K., Bahn, M., Cornelissen, J., Niinemets, Ü., Onipchenko, V., Peñuelas, J., Poorter, L., Reich, P. B., Soudzilovskaia, N. A., and Bodegom, P. V.: Improved representation of plant functional types and physiology in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES v4.2) using plant trait information, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2415–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, 2016.
Harper, A. B., Williams, K. E., McGuire, P. C., Duran Rojas, M. C., Hemming, D., Verhoef, A., Huntingford, C., Rowland, L., Marthews, T., Breder Eller, C., Mathison, C., Nobrega, R. L. B., Gedney, N., Vidale, P. L., Otu-Larbi, F., Pandey, D., Garrigues, S., Wright, A., Slevin, D., De Kauwe, M. G., Blyth, E., Ardö, J., Black, A., Bonal, D., Buchmann, N., Burban, B., Fuchs, K., de Grandcourt, A., Mammarella, I., Merbold, L., Montagnani, L., Nouvellon, Y., Restrepo-Coupe, N., and Wohlfahrt, G.: Improvement of modeling plant responses to low soil moisture in JULESvn4.9 and evaluation against flux tower measurements, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3269–3294, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021, 2021.
Harper, A., Williams, K., McGuire, P. C., Duran Rojas, C., and Otu-Larbi, F.: Rose suite u-al752, MetOffice [code], https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/roses-u/browser/a/l/7/5/2/trunk, last access: 14 July 2022.
Hengl, T., de Jesus, J. M., MacMillan, R. A., Batjes, N. H., Heuvelink, G.
B. M., Ribeiro, E., Samuel-Rosa, A., Kempen, B., Leenaars, J. G. B., Walsh,
M. G., and Gonzalez, M. R.: SoilGrids1km – Global Soil Information Based
on Automated Mapping, PLOS ONE, 9, e105992, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0105992,
2014.
Hernández, G. G., Winter, K., and Slot, M.: Similar temperature
dependence of photosynthetic parameters in sun and shade leaves of three
tropical tree species, Tree Physiol., 40, 637–651,
https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpaa015, 2020.
Hikosaka, K., Nabeshima, E., and Hiura, T.: Seasonal changes in the
temperature response of photosynthesis in canopy leaves of Quercus crispula
in a cool-temperate forest, Tree Physiol., 27, 1035–1041,
https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/27.7.1035, 2007.
Hogan, R. J., Quaife, T., and Braghiere, R.: Fast matrix treatment of 3-D radiative transfer in vegetation canopies: SPARTACUS-Vegetation 1.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 339–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-339-2018, 2018.
Huntingford, C. and Oliver, R. J.: Converging towards a common
representation of large-scale photosynthesis, Glob. Change Biol., 27,
716–718, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15398, 2021.
Huntingford, C., Lowe, J. A., Booth, B. B. B., Jones, C. D., Harris, G. R.,
Gohar, L. K., and Meir, P.: Contributions of carbon cycle uncertainty to
future climate projection spread, Tellus B, 61, 355–360, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2009.00414.x, 2009.
Jacobs, C.: Direct impact of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on regional transpiration, PhD thesis, Wageningen Agricultural University, 1994.
Jarvis, P. G., Monteith, J. L., and Weatherley, P. E.: The interpretation of
the variations in leaf water potential and stomatal conductance found in
canopies in the field, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 273, 593–610, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1976.0035,
1976.
Jasechko, S., Sharp, Z. D., Gibson, J. J., Birks, S. J., Yi, Y., and
Fawcett, P. J.: Terrestrial water fluxes dominated by transpiration, Nature,
496, 347–350, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11983, 2013.
Jogireddy, V. R., Cox, P. M., Huntingford, C., Harding, R. J., and Mercado,
L. M.: An improved description of canopy light interception for use in a GCM
land-surface scheme: calibration and testing against carbon fluxes at a
coniferous forest, Hadley Centre Technical Note 63, Hadley Centre, Met
Office, Exeter, UK, 2006.
Joseph, T., Whitehead, D., and Turnbull, M. H.: Soil water availability
influences the temperature response of photosynthesis and respiration in a
grass and a woody shrub, Funct. Plant Biol., 41, 468–481,
https://doi.org/10.1071/FP13237, 2014.
Jung, M., Koirala, S., Weber, U., Ichii, K., Gans, F., Camps-Valls, G.,
Papale, D., Schwalm, C., Tramontana, G., and Reichstein, M.: The FLUXCOM
ensemble of global land-atmosphere energy fluxes, Sci. Data, 6, 74,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0076-8, 2019.
Jung, M., Schwalm, C., Migliavacca, M., Walther, S., Camps-Valls, G., Koirala, S., Anthoni, P., Besnard, S., Bodesheim, P., Carvalhais, N., Chevallier, F., Gans, F., Goll, D. S., Haverd, V., Köhler, P., Ichii, K., Jain, A. K., Liu, J., Lombardozzi, D., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nelson, J. A., O'Sullivan, M., Pallandt, M., Papale, D., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Rödenbeck, C., Sitch, S., Tramontana, G., Walker, A., Weber, U., and Reichstein, M.: Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach, Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020.
Kala, J., De Kauwe, M. G., Pitman, A. J., Lorenz, R., Medlyn, B. E., Wang, Y.-P., Lin, Y.-S., and Abramowitz, G.: Implementation of an optimal stomatal conductance scheme in the Australian Community Climate Earth Systems Simulator (ACCESS1.3b), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3877–3889, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3877-2015, 2015.
Kala, J., De Kauwe, M. G., Pitman, A. J., Medlyn, B. E., Wang, Y.-P.,
Lorenz, R., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.: Impact of the representation of
stomatal conductance on model projections of heatwave intensity, Sci.
Rep.-UK, 6, 23418, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep23418, 2016.
Kattge, J. and Knorr, W.: Temperature acclimation in a biochemical model of
photosynthesis: a reanalysis of data from 36 species, Plant Cell
Environ., 30, 1176–1190, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.2007.01690.x, 2007.
Keenan, T. F., Luo, X., De Kauwe, M. G., Medlyn, B. E., Prentice, I. C.,
Stocker, B. D., Smith, N. G., Terrer, C., Wang, H., Zhang, Y., and Zhou, S.:
A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to increasing
CO2, Nature, 600, 253–258, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04096-9, 2021.
Kobayashi, H., Baldocchi, D. D., Ryu, Y., Chen, Q., Ma, S., Osuna, J. L.,
and Ustin, S. L.: Modeling energy and carbon fluxes in a heterogeneous oak
woodland: A three-dimensional approach, Agr. Forest Meteorol.,
152, 83–100, 2012.
Kooperman, G. J., Chen, Y., Hoffman, F. M., Koven, C. D., Lindsay, K.,
Pritchard, M. S., Swann, A. L. S., and Randerson, J. T.: Forest response to
rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land,
Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 434–440, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7, 2018.
Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher,
J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic
global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere
system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB1015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005.
Kroner, Y. and Way, D. A.: Carbon fluxes acclimate more strongly to elevated
growth temperatures than to elevated CO2 concentrations in a northern
conifer, Glob. Change Biol., 22, 2913–2928, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13215, 2016.
Kumarathunge, D. P., Medlyn, B. E., Drake, J. E., Rogers, A., and Tjoelker,
M. G.: No evidence for triose phosphate limitation of light-saturated leaf
photosynthesis under current atmospheric CO2 concentration, Plant Cell
Environ., 42, 3241–3252, https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.13639, 2019a.
Kumarathunge, D. P., Medlyn, B. E., Drake, J. E., Tjoelker, M. G.,
Aspinwall, M. J., Battaglia, M., Cano, F. J., Carter, K. R., Cavaleri, M.
A., Cernusak, L. A., Chambers, J. Q., Crous, K. Y., De Kauwe, M. G.,
Dillaway, D. N., Dreyer, E., Ellsworth, D. S., Ghannoum, O., Han, Q.,
Hikosaka, K., Jensen, A. M., Kelly, J. W. G., Kruger, E. L., Mercado, L. M.,
Onoda, Y., Reich, P. B., Rogers, A., Slot, M., Smith, N. G., Tarvainen, L.,
Tissue, D. T., Togashi, H. F., Tribuzy, E. S., Uddling, J., Vårhammar,
A., Wallin, G., Warren, J. M., and Way, D. A.: Acclimation and adaptation
components of the temperature dependence of plant photosynthesis at the
global scale, New Phytol., 222, 768–784, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15668, 2019b.
Kurepin, L. V., Stangl, Z. R., Ivanov, A. G., Bui, V., Mema, M., Hüner,
N. P. A., Öquist, G., Way, D., and Hurry, V.: Contrasting acclimation
abilities of two dominant boreal conifers to elevated CO2 and
temperature, Plant Cell Environ., 41, 1331–1345, https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.13158,
2018.
Leuning, R.: A critical appraisal of a combined stomatal-photosynthesis
model for C3 plants, Plant Cell Environ., 18, 339–355,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.1995.tb00370.x, 1995.
Lin, Y.-S., Medlyn, B. E., Duursma, R. A., Prentice, I. C., Wang, H., Baig,
S., Eamus, D., de Dios, V. R., Mitchell, P., Ellsworth, D. S., de Beeck,
M. O., Wallin, G., Uddling, J., Tarvainen, L., Linderson, M.-L., Cernusak,
L. A., Nippert, J. B., Ocheltree, T. W., Tissue, D. T., Martin-StPaul, N.
K., Rogers, A., Warren, J. M., De Angelis, P., Hikosaka, K., Han, Q., Onoda,
Y., Gimeno, T. E., Barton, C. V. M., Bennie, J., Bonal, D., Bosc, A.,
Löw, M., Macinins-Ng, C., Rey, A., Rowland, L., Setterfield, S. A.,
Tausz-Posch, S., Zaragoza-Castells, J., Broadmeadow, M. S. J., Drake, J. E.,
Freeman, M., Ghannoum, O., Hutley, L. B., Kelly, J. W., Kikuzawa, K.,
Kolari, P., Koyama, K., Limousin, J.-M., Meir, P., Lola da Costa, A. C.,
Mikkelsen, T. N., Salinas, N., Sun, W., and Wingate, L.: Optimal stomatal
behaviour around the world, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 459–464,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2550, 2015.
Liu, H., Randerson, J. T., Lindfors, J., Massman, W. J., and Foken, T.:
Consequences of Incomplete Surface Energy Balance Closure for CO2 Fluxes
from Open-Path CO2/H2O Infrared Gas Analysers, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol.,
120, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-005-9047-z, 2006.
Loew, A., van Bodegom, P. M., Widlowski, J.-L., Otto, J., Quaife, T., Pinty, B., and Raddatz, T.: Do we (need to) care about canopy radiation schemes in DGVMs? Caveats and potential impacts, Biogeosciences, 11, 1873–1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1873-2014, 2014.
Lombardozzi, D. L., Bonan, G. B., Smith, N. G., Dukes, J. S., and Fisher, R.
A.: Temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration: A key
uncertainty in the carbon cycle-climate feedback, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 42, 8624–8631, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065934, 2015.
Mau, A. C., Reed, S. C., Wood, T. E., and Cavaleri, M. A.: Temperate and
Tropical Forest Canopies are Already Functioning beyond Their Thermal
Thresholds for Photosynthesis, Forests, 9, 47, https://doi.org/10.3390/f9010047, 2018.
McGuire, P. C., Vidale, P. L., Oliver, R. J., Lister, G. M. S., Martinez de la Torre, A., Müller, O. V., and Todt, M.: Rose suite u-bq898, MetOffice [code], https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/roses-u/browser/b/q/8/9/8/trunk, last access: 14 July 2022.
Medlyn, B. E., Loustau, D., and Delzon, S.: Temperature response of
parameters of a biochemically based model of photosynthesis. I. Seasonal
changes in mature maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.), Plant Cell
Environ., 25, 1155–1165, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3040.2002.00890.x, 2002.
Medlyn, B. E., Duursma, R. A., Eamus, D., Ellsworth, D. S., Prentice, I. C.,
Barton, C. V. M., Crous, K. Y., de Angelis, P., Freeman, M., and Wingate,
L.: Reconciling the optimal and empirical approaches to modelling stomatal
conductance, Glob. Change Biol., 17, 2134–2144,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02375.x, 2011.
Meir, P., Kruijt, B., Broadmeadow, M., Barbosa, E., Kull, O., Carswell, F.,
Nobre, A., and Jarvis, P. G.: Acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to
irradiance in tree canopies in relation to leaf nitrogen concentration and
leaf mass per unit area, Plant Cell Environ., 25, 343–357,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0016-8025.2001.00811.x, 2002.
Mercado, L. M., Huntingford, C., Gash, J. H. C., Cox, P. M., and Jogireddy,
V. R.: Improving the representation of radiation interception and
photosynthesis for climate model applications, Tellus B, 59, 553–565,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2007.00256.x, 2007.
Mercado, L. M., Bellouin, N., Sitch, S., Boucher, O., Huntingford, C., Wild,
M., and Cox, P. M.: Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global
land carbon sink, Nature, 458, 1014–1017, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07949, 2009.
Mercado, L. M., Medlyn, B. E., Huntingford, C., Oliver, R. J., Clark, D. B.,
Sitch, S., Zelazowski, P., Kattge, J., Harper, A. B., and Cox, P. M.: Large
sensitivity in land carbon storage due to geographical and temporal
variation in the thermal response of photosynthetic capacity, New
Phytol., 218, 1462–1477, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15100, 2018.
Miller, B. D., Carter, K. R., Reed, S. C., Wood, T. E., and Cavaleri, M. A.:
Only sun-lit leaves of the uppermost canopy exceed both air temperature and
photosynthetic thermal optima in a wet tropical forest, Agr.
Forest Meteorol., 301–302, 108347, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108347, 2021.
Oliver, R. J.: Rose suite u-br064, MetOffice [code], https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/roses-u/browser/b/r/0/6/4/trunk, last access: 14 July 2022.
Oliver, R. J., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Simpson, D., Medlyn, B. E., Lin, Y.-S., and Folberth, G. A.: Large but decreasing effect of ozone on the European carbon sink, Biogeosciences, 15, 4245–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, 2018.
Oliver, R., Mercado, L., Clark, D., Huntingford, C., Taylor, C., Vidale, P. L., McGuire, P., Todt, M., Folwell, S., Shamsudheen, S., and Medlyn, B.: Improved representation of plant physiology in the JULES-vn5.6 land surface model: Photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and thermal acclimation, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5825540, 2022.
Pan, Y., Birdsey, R. A., Fang, J., Houghton, R., Kauppi, P. E., Kurz, W. A.,
Phillips, O. L., Shvidenko, A., Lewis, S. L., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P.,
Jackson, R. B., Pacala, S. W., McGuire, A. D., Piao, S., Rautiainen, A.,
Sitch, S., and Hayes, D.: A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's
Forests, Science, 333, 988–993, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201609, 2011.
Pau, S., Detto, M., Kim, Y., and Still, C. J.: Tropical forest temperature
thresholds for gross primary productivity, Ecosphere, 9, e02311,
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2311, 2018.
Poulter, B., MacBean, N., Hartley, A., Khlystova, I., Arino, O., Betts, R., Bontemps, S., Boettcher, M., Brockmann, C., Defourny, P., Hagemann, S., Herold, M., Kirches, G., Lamarche, C., Lederer, D., Ottlé, C., Peters, M., and Peylin, P.: Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015.
Reich, P. B., Sendall, K. M., Stefanski, A., Rich, R. L., Hobbie, S. E., and
Montgomery, R. A.: Effects of climate warming on photosynthesis in boreal
tree species depend on soil moisture, Nature, 562, 263–267,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0582-4, 2018.
Roberts, M. J., Baker, A., Blockley, E. W., Calvert, D., Coward, A., Hewitt, H. T., Jackson, L. C., Kuhlbrodt, T., Mathiot, P., Roberts, C. D., Schiemann, R., Seddon, J., Vannière, B., and Vidale, P. L.: Description of the resolution hierarchy of the global coupled HadGEM3-GC3.1 model as used in CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4999–5028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4999-2019, 2019.
Rogers, A., Medlyn, B. E., Dukes, J. S., Bonan, G., von Caemmerer, S.,
Dietze, M. C., Kattge, J., Leakey, A. D. B., Mercado, L. M., Niinemets,
Ü., Prentice, I. C., Serbin, S. P., Sitch, S., Way, D. A., and Zaehle,
S.: A roadmap for improving the representation of photosynthesis in Earth
system models, New Phytol., 213, 22–42, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14283, 2017.
Rogers, A., Kumarathunge, D. P., Lombardozzi, D. L., Medlyn, B. E., Serbin,
S. P., and Walker, A. P.: Triose phosphate utilization limitation: an
unnecessary complexity in terrestrial biosphere model representation of
photosynthesis, New Phytol., 230, 17–22, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17092, 2021.
Schlesinger, W. H. and Jasechko, S.: Transpiration in the global water
cycle, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 189–190, 115–117,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.011, 2014.
Sellar, A. A., Jones, C. G., Mulcahy, J. P., Tang, Y., Yool, A., Wiltshire,
A., O'Connor, F. M., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Palmieri, J., Woodward, S., de
Mora, L., Kuhlbrodt, T., Rumbold, S. T., Kelley, D. I., Ellis, R., Johnson,
C. E., Walton, J., Abraham, N. L., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Archibald,
A. T., Berthou, S., Burke, E., Blockley, E., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M.,
Edwards, J., Folberth, G. A., Gedney, N., Griffiths, P. T., Harper, A. B.,
Hendry, M. A., Hewitt, A. J., Johnson, B., Jones, A., Jones, C. D., Keeble,
J., Liddicoat, S., Morgenstern, O., Parker, R. J., Predoi, V., Robertson,
E., Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S., Swaminathan, R., Woodhouse, M. T., Zeng, G.,
and Zerroukat, M.: UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth
System Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4513–4558,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001739, 2019.
Sendall, K. M., Reich, P. B., Zhao, C., Jihua, H., Wei, X., Stefanski, A.,
Rice, K., Rich, R. L., and Montgomery, R. A.: Acclimation of photosynthetic
temperature optima of temperate and boreal tree species in response to
experimental forest warming, Glob. Change Biol., 21, 1342–1357,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12781, 2015.
Shabanov, N., Huang, D., Yang, W., Tan, B., Knyazikhin, Y., Myneni, R., Ahl,
D., Gower, S., Huete, A., Aragao, L., and Shimabukuro, Y.: Analysis and
Optimization of the MODIS Leaf Area Index Algorithm Retrievals Over
Broadleaf Forests, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 43, 1855–1865,
https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2005.852477, 2005.
Slot, M. and Winter, K.: Photosynthetic acclimation to warming in tropical
forest tree seedlings, J. Exp. Bot., 68, 2275–2284,
https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erx071, 2017.
Slot, M., Rifai, S. W., and Winter, K.: Photosynthetic plasticity of a
tropical tree species, Tabebuia rosea, in response to elevated temperature
and CO2, Plant Cell Environ., 44, 2347–2364, https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.14049, 2021.
Smith, N. G. and Dukes, J. S.: Plant respiration and photosynthesis in
global-scale models: incorporating acclimation to temperature and CO2,
Glob. Change Biol., 19, 45–63, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02797.x, 2013.
Smith, N. G., Malyshev, S. L., Shevliakova, E., Kattge, J., and Dukes, J.
S.: Foliar temperature acclimation reduces simulated carbon sensitivity to
climate, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 407–411, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2878, 2016.
Spafford, L. and MacDougall, A. H.: Validation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in CMIP6 Earth system models: a review, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5863–5889, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5863-2021, 2021.
Tans, P. and Keeling, R.: NOAA/ESRL, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ (last access: December 2021), 2014.
Tramontana, G., Jung, M., Schwalm, C. R., Ichii, K., Camps-Valls, G., Ráduly, B., Reichstein, M., Arain, M. A., Cescatti, A., Kiely, G., Merbold, L., Serrano-Ortiz, P., Sickert, S., Wolf, S., and Papale, D.: Predicting carbon dioxide and energy fluxes across global FLUXNET sites with regression algorithms, Biogeosciences, 13, 4291–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4291-2016, 2016.
Vårhammar, A., Wallin, G., McLean, C. M., Dusenge, M. E., Medlyn, B. E.,
Hasper, T. B., Nsabimana, D., and Uddling, J.: Photosynthetic temperature
responses of tree species in Rwanda: evidence of pronounced negative effects
of high temperature in montane rainforest climax species, New Phytol.,
206, 1000–1012, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.13291, 2015.
Verhoef, A. and Egea, G.: Modeling plant transpiration under limited soil
water: Comparison of different plant and soil hydraulic parameterizations
and preliminary implications for their use in land surface models,
Agr. Forest Meteorol., 191, 22–32,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.02.009, 2014.
Vidale, P. L., Egea, G., McGuire, P. C., Todt, M., Peters, W., Müller,
O., Balan-Sarojini, B., and Verhoef, A.: On the Treatment of Soil Water
Stress in GCM Simulations of Vegetation Physiology, Front.
Environ. Sci., 9, 689301, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.689301, 2021.
Walker, A. P., Beckerman, A. P., Gu, L., Kattge, J., Cernusak, L. A.,
Domingues, T. F., Scales, J. C., Wohlfahrt, G., Wullschleger, S. D., and
Woodward, F. I.: The relationship of leaf photosynthetic traits – Vcmax and
Jmax – to leaf nitrogen, leaf phosphorus, and specific leaf area: a
meta-analysis and modeling study, Ecol. Evol., 4, 3218–3235,
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1173, 2014.
Walker, A. P., Johnson, A. L., Rogers, A., Anderson, J., Bridges, R. A.,
Fisher, R. A., Lu, D., Ricciuto, D. M., Serbin, S. P., and Ye, M.:
Multi-hypothesis comparison of Farquhar and Collatz photosynthesis models
reveals the unexpected influence of empirical assumptions at leaf and global
scales, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 804–822, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15366, 2021.
Way, D. A. and Sage, R. F.: Elevated growth temperatures reduce the carbon
gain of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.], Glob. Change Biol.,
14, 624–636, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01513.x, 2008.
Way, D. A. and Yamori, W.: Thermal acclimation of photosynthesis: on the
importance of adjusting our definitions and accounting for thermal
acclimation of respiration, Photosynth. Res., 119, 89–100,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11120-013-9873-7, 2014.
Way, D. A., Stinziano, J. R., Berghoff, H., and Oren, R.: How well do
growing season dynamics of photosynthetic capacity correlate with leaf
biochemistry and climate fluctuations?, Tree Physiol., 37, 879–888,
https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpx086, 2017.
Weedon, G. P., Balsamo, G., Bellouin, N., Gomes, S., Best, M. J., and
Viterbo, P.: The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data
methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, Water Resour.
Res., 50, 7505–7514, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015638, 2014.
Williams, K. D., Copsey, D., Blockley, E. W., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Calvert,
D., Comer, R., Davis, P., Graham, T., Hewitt, H. T., Hill, R., Hyder, P.,
Ineson, S., Johns, T. C., Keen, A. B., Lee, R. W., Megann, A., Milton, S.
F., Rae, J. G. L., Roberts, M. J., Scaife, A. A., Schiemann, R., Storkey,
D., Thorpe, L., Watterson, I. G., Walters, D. N., West, A., Wood, R. A.,
Woollings, T., and Xavier, P. K.: The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0
and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations, J. Adv. Model.
Earth Sy., 10, 357–380, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001115, 2018.
Wilson, K. B., Baldocchi, D. D., and Hanson, P. J.: Leaf age affects the
seasonal pattern of photosynthetic capacityand net ecosystem exchange of
carbon in a deciduous forest, Plant Cell Environ., 24, 571–583,
2001.
Wiltshire, A. J., Duran Rojas, M. C., Edwards, J. M., Gedney, N., Harper, A. B., Hartley, A. J., Hendry, M. A., Robertson, E., and Smout-Day, K.: JULES-GL7: the Global Land configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 7.0 and 7.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 483–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, 2020.
Wohlfahrt, G., Bahn, M., Haubner, E., Horak, I., Michaeler, W., Rottmar, K.,
Tappeiner, U., and Cernusca, A.: Inter-specific variation of the biochemical
limitation to photosynthesis and related leaf traits of 30 species from
mountain grassland ecosystems under different land use, Plant Cell
Environ., 22, 1281–1296, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3040.1999.00479.x, 1999.
Xiao, Z., Liang, S., Wang, J., Xiang, Y., Zhao, X., and Song, J.:
Long-Time-Series Global Land Surface Satellite Leaf Area Index Product
Derived From MODIS and AVHRR Surface Reflectance, IEEE T.
Geosci. Remote Sens., 54, 5301–5318, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2016.2560522,
2016.
Yamaguchi, D. P., Nakaji, T., Hiura, T., and Hikosaka, K.: Effects of
seasonal change and experimental warming on the temperature dependence of
photosynthesis in the canopy leaves of Quercus serrata, Tree Physiol., 36,
1283–1295, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpw021, 2016.
Yamori, W., Hikosaka, K., and Way, D. A.: Temperature response of
photosynthesis in C3, C4, and CAM plants: temperature acclimation and
temperature adaptation, Photosynth. Res., 119, 101–117,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11120-013-9874-6, 2014.
Yang, R., Friedl, M. A., and Ni, W.: Parameterization of shortwave radiation
fluxes for nonuniform vegetation canopies in land surface models, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 14275–14286, 2001.
Zeng, Z., Piao, S., Li, L. Z. X., Zhou, L., Ciais, P., Wang, T., Li, Y.,
Lian, X., Wood, E. F., Friedlingstein, P., Mao, J., Estes, L. D., Myneni,
R. B., Peng, S., Shi, X., Seneviratne, S. I., and Wang, Y.: Climate
mitigation from vegetation biophysical feedbacks during the past three
decades, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 432–436, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3299, 2017.
Zhang, X. W., Wang, J. R., Ji, M. F., Milne, R. I., Wang, M. H., Liu, J.-Q.,
Shi, S., Yang, S.-L., and Zhao, C.-M.: Higher Thermal Acclimation Potential
of Respiration but Not Photosynthesis in Two Alpine Picea Taxa in Contrast
to Two Lowland Congeners, PLOS ONE, 10, e0123248,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0123248, 2015.
Zhang, Y. and Schaap, M. G.: Weighted recalibration of the Rosetta
pedotransfer model with improved estimates of hydraulic parameter
distributions and summary statistics (Rosetta3), J. Hydrol., 547,
39–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.004, 2017.
Zhao, M. and Running, S. W.: Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial
Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009, Science, 329, 940–943,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1192666, 2010.
Zhao, M., Heinsch, F. A., Nemani, R. R., and Running, S. W.: Improvements of
the MODIS terrestrial gross and net primary production global data set,
Remote Sens. Environ., 95, 164–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2004.12.011, 2005.
Zhao, M., Running, S. W., and Nemani, R. R.: Sensitivity of Moderate
Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) terrestrial primary production
to the accuracy of meteorological reanalyses, J. Geophys.
Res.-Biogeo., 111, G01002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JG000004, 2006.
Ziehn, T., Kattge, J., Knorr, W., and Scholze, M.: Improving the
predictability of global CO2 assimilation rates under climate change,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L10404, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047182, 2011.
Short summary
We introduce new representations of plant physiological processes into a land surface model. Including new biological understanding improves modelled carbon and water fluxes for the present in tropical and northern-latitude forests. Future climate simulations demonstrate the sensitivity of photosynthesis to temperature is important for modelling carbon cycle dynamics in a warming world. Accurate representation of these processes in models is necessary for robust predictions of climate change.
We introduce new representations of plant physiological processes into a land surface model....
