Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1181-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1181-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
29 Mar 2018
Methods for assessment of models |
| 29 Mar 2018
Error assessment of biogeochemical models by lower bound methods (NOMMA-1.0)
Volkmar Sauerland
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mathematics, Kiel University,
Christian-Albrechts-Platz 4, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Ulrike Löptien
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel,
Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Institute of Geosciences, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Strasse 10, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Claudine Leonhard
Department of Mathematics, Kiel University,
Christian-Albrechts-Platz 4, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Andreas Oschlies
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel,
Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Anand Srivastav
Department of Mathematics, Kiel University,
Christian-Albrechts-Platz 4, 24118 Kiel, Germany
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Britta Munkes, Ulrike Löptien, and Heiner Dietze
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Markus Pahlow, Chia-Te Chien, Lionel A. Arteaga, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4663–4690, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4663-2020, 2020
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Chia-Te Chien, Markus Pahlow, Markus Schartau, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4691–4712, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4691-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4691-2020, 2020
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We demonstrate sensitivities of tracers to parameters of a new optimality-based plankton–ecosystem model (OPEM) in the UVic-ESCM. We find that changes in phytoplankton subsistence nitrogen quota strongly impact the nitrogen inventory, nitrogen fixation, and elemental stoichiometry of ordinary phytoplankton and diazotrophs. We introduce a new likelihood-based metric for model calibration, and it shows the capability of constraining globally averaged oxygen, nitrate, and DIC concentrations.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, Andrew H. MacDougall, Michael Eby, Nesha Wright, Katrin J. Meissner, Andreas Oschlies, Andreas Schmittner, Alexander J. MacIsaac, H. Damon Matthews, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4183–4204, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020, 2020
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In this paper, we evaluate the newest version of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM 2.10). Combining recent model developments as a joint effort, this version is to be used in the next phase of model intercomparison and climate change studies. The UVic ESCM 2.10 is capable of reproducing changes in historical temperature and carbon fluxes well. Additionally, the model is able to reproduce the three-dimensional distribution of many ocean tracers.
Sabine Mathesius, Julia Getzlaff, Heiner Dietze, Andreas Oschlies, and Markus Schartau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1775–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1775-2020, 2020
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Controlled manipulation of environmental conditions within large enclosures in the ocean, pelagic mesocosms, has become a standard method to explore responses of marine plankton communities to anthropogenic change. Among the challenges of interpreting mesocosm data is the often uncertain role of vertical mixing. This study introduces a mesocosm mixing model that is able to estimate vertical diffusivities and thus provides a tool for future mesocosm data analyses that account for mixing.
Iris Kriest, Paul Kähler, Wolfgang Koeve, Karin Kvale, Volkmar Sauerland, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 17, 3057–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, 2020
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Constants of global biogeochemical ocean models are often tuned
by handto match observations of nutrients or oxygen. We investigate the effect of this tuning by optimising six constants of a global biogeochemical model, simulated in five different offline circulations. Optimal values for three constants adjust to distinct features of the circulation applied and can afterwards be swapped among the circulations, without losing too much of the model's fit to observed quantities.
Ulrike Löptien and Heiner Dietze
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-96, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Nitrogen fixation, conducted by specific microorganisms, makes molecular nitrogen available for marine biota. By this means this process exerts major control on the growth of algae in the ocean. This study compares two contemporary paradigms, anticipating the ecological niche of N-fixing organisms in an Earth System Model. We illustrate respective uncertainties in climate projections and suggest specific observations to advance the reliable representation of nitrogen fixation in numerical models.
Heiner Dietze, Ulrike Löptien, and Julia Getzlaff
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 71–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-71-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-71-2020, 2020
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We present a new near-global coupled biogeochemical ocean-circulation model configuration of the Southern Ocean. The configuration features both a relatively equilibrated oceanic carbon inventory and an explicit representation of mesoscale eddies. In this paper, we document the model configuration and showcase its potential to tackle research questions such as the Southern Ocean carbon uptake dynamics on decadal timescales.
Fabian Reith, Wolfgang Koeve, David P. Keller, Julia Getzlaff, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 711–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019, 2019
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This modeling study is the first one to look at the suitability and collateral effects of direct CO2 injection into the deep ocean as a means to bridge the gap between CO2 emissions and climate impacts of an intermediate CO2 emission scenario and a temperature target on a millennium timescale, such as the 1.5 °C climate target of the Paris Agreement.
Tronje P. Kemena, Angela Landolfi, Andreas Oschlies, Klaus Wallmann, and Andrew W. Dale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 539–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-539-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-539-2019, 2019
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Oceanic deoxygenation is driven by climate change in several areas of the global ocean. Measurements indicate that ocean volumes with very low oxygen levels expand, with consequences for marine organisms and fishery. We found climate-change-driven phosphorus (P) input in the ocean is hereby an important driver for deoxygenation on longer timescales with effects in the next millennia.
Daniela Niemeyer, Iris Kriest, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 16, 3095–3111, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3095-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3095-2019, 2019
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Recent studies suggest spatial variations of the marine particle flux length scale. Using a global biogeochemical ocean model, we investigate whether changes in particle size and size-dependent sinking can explain this variation. We address uncertainties by varying aggregate properties and circulation. Both aspects have an impact on the representation of nutrients, oxygen and oxygen minimum zones. The formation and sinking of large aggregates in productive areas lead to deeper flux penetration.
Yonss Saranga José, Lothar Stramma, Sunke Schmidtko, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-155, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-155, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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In situ observations along the Peruvian and Chilean coasts have exhibited variability in the water column oxygen concentration. This variability, which is attributed to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), might have implication on the vertical extension of the Eastern Tropical South Pacific (ETSP) oxygen minimum zone. Here using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, we provide new insights into how ENSO variability affects the vertical extension of the oxygen-poor waters of the ETSP.
Robinson Hordoir, Lars Axell, Anders Höglund, Christian Dieterich, Filippa Fransner, Matthias Gröger, Ye Liu, Per Pemberton, Semjon Schimanke, Helen Andersson, Patrik Ljungemyr, Petter Nygren, Saeed Falahat, Adam Nord, Anette Jönsson, Iréne Lake, Kristofer Döös, Magnus Hieronymus, Heiner Dietze, Ulrike Löptien, Ivan Kuznetsov, Antti Westerlund, Laura Tuomi, and Jari Haapala
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 363–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-363-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-363-2019, 2019
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Nemo-Nordic is a regional ocean model based on a community code (NEMO). It covers the Baltic and the North Sea area and is used as a forecast model by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. It is also used as a research tool by scientists of several countries to study, for example, the effects of climate change on the Baltic and North seas. Using such a model permits us to understand key processes in this coastal ecosystem and how such processes will change in a future climate.
Olaf Duteil, Andreas Oschlies, and Claus W. Böning
Biogeosciences, 15, 7111–7126, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7111-2018, 2018
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Oxygen-depleted regions of the Pacific Ocean are currently expanding, which is threatening marine habitats. Based on numerical simulations, we show that the decrease in the intensity of the trade winds and the subsequent slowdown of the oceanic currents lead to a reduction in oxygen supply. Our study suggests that the prevailing positive conditions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1975, a major source of natural variability, may explain a significant part of the current deoxygenation.
Marine Bretagnon, Aurélien Paulmier, Véronique Garçon, Boris Dewitte, Séréna Illig, Nathalie Leblond, Laurent Coppola, Fernando Campos, Federico Velazco, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Andreas Oschlies, J. Martin Hernandez-Ayon, Helmut Maske, Oscar Vergara, Ivonne Montes, Philippe Martinez, Edgardo Carrasco, Jacques Grelet, Olivier Desprez-De-Gesincourt, Christophe Maes, and Lionel Scouarnec
Biogeosciences, 15, 5093–5111, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5093-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5093-2018, 2018
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In oxygen minimum zone, the fate of the organic matter is a key question as the low oxygen condition would preserve the OM and thus enhance the biological carbon pump while the high microbial activity would foster the remineralisation and the greenhouse gases emission. To investigate this paradigm, sediment traps were deployed off Peru. We pointed out the influence of the oxygenation as well as the organic matter quantity and quality on the carbon transfer efficiency in the oxygen minimum zone.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, 2018
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The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
Per Pemberton, Ulrike Löptien, Robinson Hordoir, Anders Höglund, Semjon Schimanke, Lars Axell, and Jari Haapala
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3105-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3105-2017, 2017
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The Baltic Sea is seasonally ice covered with intense wintertime ship traffic and a sensitive ecosystem. Understanding the sea-ice pack is important for climate effect studies and forecasting. A NEMO-LIM3.6-based model setup for the North Sea/Baltic Sea is introduced, including a method for ice in the coastal zone. We evaluate different sea-ice parameters and overall find that the model agrees well with the observation though deformed ice is more challenging to capture.
Karin F. Kvale, Samar Khatiwala, Heiner Dietze, Iris Kriest, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2425–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2425-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2425-2017, 2017
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Computer models of ocean biology and chemistry are becoming increasingly complex, and thus more expensive, to run. One solution is to approximate the behaviour of the ocean physics and store that information outside of the model. That
offlineinformation can then be used to calculate a steady-state solution from the model's biology and chemistry, without waiting for a traditional
onlineintegration to complete. We show this offline method reproduces online results and is 100 times faster.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Daniela Niemeyer, Tronje P. Kemena, Katrin J. Meissner, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, 2017
Markus Schartau, Philip Wallhead, John Hemmings, Ulrike Löptien, Iris Kriest, Shubham Krishna, Ben A. Ward, Thomas Slawig, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 14, 1647–1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1647-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1647-2017, 2017
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Plankton models have become an integral part in marine ecosystem and biogeochemical research. These models differ in complexity and in their number of parameters. How values are assigned to parameters is essential. An overview of major methodologies of parameter estimation is provided. Aspects of parameter identification in the literature are diverse. Individual findings could be better synthesized if notation and expertise of the different scientific communities would be reasonably merged.
Heiner Dietze, Julia Getzlaff, and Ulrike Löptien
Biogeosciences, 14, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1561-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1561-2017, 2017
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The Southern Ocean is a sink for anthropogenic carbon. Projections of how this sink will evolve in an ever-warming climate are based on coupled ocean-circulation–biogeochemical models. This study compares uncertainties of simulated oceanic carbon uptake associated to physical (eddy) parameterizations with those associated wtih (unconstrained) supply of bioavailable iron supply to the surface ocean.
Yonss Saranga José, Heiner Dietze, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 14, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1349-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1349-2017, 2017
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This study aims to investigate the diverse subsurface nutrient patterns observed within anticyclonic eddies in the upwelling system off Peru. Two simulated anticyclonic eddies with opposing subsurface nitrate concentrations were analysed. The results show that diverse nutrient patterns within anticyclonic eddies are related to the presence of water mass from different origins at different depths, responding to variations in depth of the circulation strength at the edge of the eddy.
Iris Kriest, Volkmar Sauerland, Samar Khatiwala, Anand Srivastav, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 127–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-127-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-127-2017, 2017
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Global biogeochemical ocean models are subject to a high level of parametric uncertainty. This may be of consequence for their skill with respect to accurately describing features of the present ocean and their sensitivity to possible environmental changes. We present the first results from a framework that combines an offline biogeochemical tracer transport model with an estimation of distribution algorithm, calibrating six biogeochemical model parameters against observed oxygen and nutrients.
Fabian Reith, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 797–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, 2016
Bei Su, Markus Pahlow, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 13, 4985–5001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4985-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4985-2016, 2016
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Previously identified positive feedbacks within the nitrogen cycle in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP) have challenged our understanding of the observed dynamics and stability of the nitrogen inventory. We present a box model analysis of the biological and biogeochemical relations in the ETSP among nitrogen deposition, benthic denitrification and phosphate regeneration. Our results suggest dominant stabilizing feedbacks tending to keep a balanced nitrogen inventory in the ETSP.
Heiner Dietze and Ulrike Löptien
Ocean Sci., 12, 977–986, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-977-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-977-2016, 2016
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Winds blowing over the ocean drive ocean currents. The oceanic response to winds is, in turn, influenced by ocean currents. Theoretical considerations suggest that the latter effect is especially pronounced in the Baltic Sea. The study presented here puts theses theoretical considerations in a high-resolution ocean circulation model of the Baltic Sea to the test.
I. Kriest and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2929–2957, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2929-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2929-2015, 2015
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We use a global model of oceanic P, N, and O2 cycles to investigate consequences of uncertainties in description of organic matter sinking, remineralization, denitrification, and N2-Fixation. After all biogeochemical and physical processes have been spun-up into a dynamically consistent steady-state, particle sinking and oxidant affinities of aerobic and anaerobic remineralization determine the extent of oxygen minimum zones, global nitrogen fluxes, and the oceanic nitrogen inventory.
U. Löptien and H. Dietze
Ocean Sci., 11, 573–590, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-573-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-573-2015, 2015
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Marine biogeochemical ocean models are embedded into earth system models - which are, to an increasing degree, applied to project the fate of our warming world. These biogeochemical models generally depend on poorly constrained model parameters. In this study we investigate the the demands on observations for an objective estimation of such parameters. A major result is that even modest noise (10%) inherent to observations can hinder the assignment of reasonable parameters.
W. Koeve, H. Wagner, P. Kähler, and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2079–2094, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2079-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2079-2015, 2015
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The natural abundance of 14C in CO2 dissolved in seawater is often used to evaluate circulation and age in the ocean and in ocean models. We study limitations of using natural 14C to determine the time elapsed since water had contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C age is dominated by two equally important components, (1) the time component of circulation and (2) the “preformed 14C-age”. Considering preformed 14C-age is critical for an assessment of circulation in models.
L. Nickelsen, D. P. Keller, and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1357–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1357-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1357-2015, 2015
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In this paper we find that including the marine cycle of the phytoplankton nutrient iron in a global climate model improves the agreement between observed and simulated nutrient concentrations in the ocean and that a better description of the source of iron from the sediment to the ocean is more important than that of iron-containing dust deposition. Finally, we find that the response of the iron cycle to climate warming affects the phytoplankton growth and nutrient cycles.
B. Su, M. Pahlow, H. Wagner, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 12, 1113–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1113-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1113-2015, 2015
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A box model of the eastern tropical South Pacific oxygen minimum zone suggests that anaerobic water-column remineralization rates have to be slower than aerobic remineralization in order to explain the relatively high values of observed nitrate concentrations. Lateral oxygen supply sufficient to oxidize about one-fifth of the export production is required to prevent an anoxic deep ocean. Under these circumstances, the region can be a net source of fixed nitrogen to the surrounding ocean.
U. Löptien and L. Axell
The Cryosphere, 8, 2409–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014, 2014
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The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea in central northern Europe. In wintertime, on-time shipping depends crucially on sea ice forecasts. Among the forecasting tools heavily applied are numerical models, which suffer from a lack of calibration data because relevant ice properties are difficult (and costly) to monitor. We developed an innovative and inexpensive approach, by using ship speed observations obtained by the automatic identification system (AIS) to asses such models.
U. Löptien and H. Dietze
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 367–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-367-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-367-2014, 2014
W. Koeve, O. Duteil, A. Oschlies, P. Kähler, and J. Segschneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2393–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2393-2014, 2014
H. Dietze, U. Löptien, and K. Getzlaff
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1713–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1713-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1713-2014, 2014
A. E. F. Prowe, M. Pahlow, S. Dutkiewicz, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 11, 3397–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3397-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3397-2014, 2014
I. Kriest and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 8401–8422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8401-2013, 2013
O. Duteil, W. Koeve, A. Oschlies, D. Bianchi, E. Galbraith, I. Kriest, and R. Matear
Biogeosciences, 10, 7723–7738, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7723-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7723-2013, 2013
C. J. Somes, A. Oschlies, and A. Schmittner
Biogeosciences, 10, 5889–5910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5889-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5889-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
A. Landolfi, H. Dietze, W. Koeve, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 1351–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1351-2013, 2013
M. El Jarbi, J. Rückelt, T. Slawig, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 1169–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1169-2013, 2013
L. M. Zamora, A. Oschlies, H. W. Bange, K. B. Huebert, J. D. Craig, A. Kock, and C. R. Löscher
Biogeosciences, 9, 5007–5022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5007-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5007-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Biogeosciences
DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology
Impacts of land-use change on biospheric carbon: an oriented benchmark using the ORCHIDEE land surface model
Implementing the iCORAL (version 1.0) coral reef CaCO3 production module in the iLOVECLIM climate model
Assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes within the adjoint-based data assimilation system – Nanjing University Carbon Assimilation System (NUCAS v1.0)
Quantifying the role of ozone-caused damage to vegetation in the Earth system: a new parameterization scheme for photosynthetic and stomatal responses
Radiocarbon analysis reveals underestimation of soil organic carbon persistence in new-generation soil models
Exploring the potential of history matching for land surface model calibration
EAT v1.0.0: a 1D test bed for physical–biogeochemical data assimilation in natural waters
Using deep learning to integrate paleoclimate and global biogeochemistry over the Phanerozoic Eon
Modelling boreal forest's mineral soil and peat C dynamics with the Yasso07 model coupled with the Ricker moisture modifier
Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire trap” in the tropics: insights from FATES_15.0.0
In silico calculation of soil pH by SCEPTER v1.0
Simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH v.2.0): robust calculations of water and energy fluxes
A global behavioural model of human fire use and management: WHAM! v1.0
Terrestrial Ecosystem Model in R (TEMIR) version 1.0: simulating ecophysiological responses of vegetation to atmospheric chemical and meteorological changes
biospheremetrics v1.0.2: an R package to calculate two complementary terrestrial biosphere integrity indicators – human colonization of the biosphere (BioCol) and risk of ecosystem destabilization (EcoRisk)
Modeling boreal forest soil dynamics with the microbially explicit soil model MIMICS+ (v1.0)
Biogeochemical model Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 provides plausible and accurate simulations of carbon cycle in Central European beech forests
Optimal enzyme allocation leads to the constrained enzyme hypothesis: the Soil Enzyme Steady Allocation Model (SESAM; v3.1)
Implementing a dynamic representation of fire and harvest including subgrid-scale heterogeneity in the tile-based land surface model CLASSIC v1.45
Inferring the tree regeneration niche from inventory data using a dynamic forest model
Optimising CH4 simulations from the LPJ-GUESS model v4.1 using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm
Biological nitrogen fixation of natural and agricultural vegetation simulated with LPJmL 5.7.9
The XSO framework (v0.1) and Phydra library (v0.1) for a flexible, reproducible, and integrated plankton community modeling environment in Python
AgriCarbon-EO v1.0.1: large-scale and high-resolution simulation of carbon fluxes by assimilation of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 reflectances using a Bayesian approach
SAMM version 1.0: a numerical model for microbial- mediated soil aggregate formation
A model of the within-population variability of budburst in forest trees
Computationally efficient parameter estimation for high-dimensional ocean biogeochemical models
The community-centered freshwater biogeochemistry model unified RIVE v1.0: a unified version for water column
Observation-based sowing dates and cultivars significantly affect yield and irrigation for some crops in the Community Land Model (CLM5)
The statistical emulators of GGCMI phase 2: responses of year-to-year variation of crop yield to CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations
A novel Eulerian model based on central moments to simulate age and reactivity continua interacting with mixing processes
AdaScape 1.0: a coupled modelling tool to investigate the links between tectonics, climate, and biodiversity
An along-track Biogeochemical Argo modelling framework: a case study of model improvements for the Nordic seas
Peatland-VU-NUCOM (PVN 1.0): using dynamic plant functional types to model peatland vegetation, CH4, and CO2 emissions
Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)
SedTrace 1.0: a Julia-based framework for generating and running reactive-transport models of marine sediment diagenesis specializing in trace elements and isotopes
A high-resolution marine mercury model MITgcm-ECCO2-Hg with online biogeochemistry
Improving nitrogen cycling in a land surface model (CLM5) to quantify soil N2O, NO, and NH3 emissions from enhanced rock weathering with croplands
Ocean biogeochemistry in the coupled ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1–REcoM3
Forcing the Global Fire Emissions Database burned-area dataset into the Community Land Model version 5.0: impacts on carbon and water fluxes at high latitudes
Modeling of non-structural carbohydrate dynamics by the spatially explicit individual-based dynamic global vegetation model SEIB-DGVM (SEIB-DGVM-NSC version 1.0)
Simulating Bark Beetle Outbreak Dynamics and their Influence on Carbon Balance Estimates with ORCHIDEE r7791
MEDFATE 2.9.3: a trait-enabled model to simulate Mediterranean forest function and dynamics at regional scales
Modelling the role of livestock grazing in C and N cycling in grasslands with LPJmL5.0-grazing
Implementation of trait-based ozone plant sensitivity in the Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere model v1.0 to assess global vegetation damage
The Permafrost and Organic LayEr module for Forest Models (POLE-FM) 1.0
CompLaB v1.0: a scalable pore-scale model for flow, biogeochemistry, microbial metabolism, and biofilm dynamics
Validation of a new spatially explicit process-based model (HETEROFOR) to simulate structurally and compositionally complex forest stands in eastern North America
Global agricultural ammonia emissions simulated with the ORCHIDEE land surface model
Guohua Liu, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Reimers, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Andrew D. Richardson, Lisa Wingate, Nicolas Delpierre, Hui Yang, and Alexander J. Winkler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6683–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, 2024
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Our study employs long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to model canopy greenness and phenology, integrating meteorological memory effects. The LSTM model outperforms traditional methods, enhancing accuracy in predicting greenness dynamics and phenological transitions across plant functional types. Highlighting the importance of multi-variate meteorological memory effects, our research pioneers unlock the secrets of vegetation phenology responses to climate change with deep learning techniques.
Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Daniel Goll, Philippe Ciais, and Ronny Lauerwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6725–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, 2024
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The study assesses the performance of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE in capturing the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks across Europe. Comparisons with observations reveal that the model accurately represents carbon fluxes and stocks. Despite the underestimations in certain land-use conversions, the model describes general trends in soil carbon response to land-use change, aligning with the site observations.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
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Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Huajie Zhu, Mousong Wu, Fei Jiang, Michael Vossbeck, Thomas Kaminski, Xiuli Xing, Jun Wang, Weimin Ju, and Jing M. Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6337–6363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6337-2024, 2024
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In this work, we developed the Nanjing University Carbon Assimilation System (NUCAS v1.0). Data assimilation experiments were conducted to demonstrate the robustness and investigate the feasibility and applicability of NUCAS. The assimilation of ecosystem carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes improved the model performance in gross primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and sensible heat, showing that COS provides constraints on parameters relevant to carbon-, water-, and energy-related processes.
Fang Li, Zhimin Zhou, Samuel Levis, Stephen Sitch, Felicity Hayes, Zhaozhong Feng, Peter B. Reich, Zhiyi Zhao, and Yanqing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6173–6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, 2024
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A new scheme is developed to model the surface ozone damage to vegetation in regional and global process-based models. Based on 4210 data points from ozone experiments, it accurately reproduces statistically significant linear or nonlinear photosynthetic and stomatal responses to ozone in observations for all vegetation types. It also enables models to implicitly capture the variability in plant ozone tolerance and the shift among species within a vegetation type.
Alexander S. Brunmayr, Frank Hagedorn, Margaux Moreno Duborgel, Luisa I. Minich, and Heather D. Graven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5961–5985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, 2024
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A new generation of soil models promises to more accurately predict the carbon cycle in soils under climate change. However, measurements of 14C (the radioactive carbon isotope) in soils reveal that the new soil models face similar problems to the traditional models: they underestimate the residence time of carbon in soils and may therefore overestimate the net uptake of CO2 by the land ecosystem. Proposed solutions include restructuring the models and calibrating model parameters with 14C data.
Nina Raoult, Simon Beylat, James M. Salter, Frédéric Hourdin, Vladislav Bastrikov, Catherine Ottlé, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5779–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, 2024
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We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Lars Nerger, Anna Teruzzi, Simone Spada, Jozef Skákala, and Stefano Ciavatta
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5619–5639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, 2024
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To understand and predict the ocean’s capacity for carbon sequestration, its ability to supply food, and its response to climate change, we need the best possible estimate of its physical and biogeochemical properties. This is obtained through data assimilation which blends numerical models and observations. We present the Ensemble and Assimilation Tool (EAT), a flexible and efficient test bed that allows any scientist to explore and further develop the state of the art in data assimilation.
Dongyu Zheng, Andrew S. Merdith, Yves Goddéris, Yannick Donnadieu, Khushboo Gurung, and Benjamin J. W. Mills
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5413–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, 2024
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This study uses a deep learning method to upscale the time resolution of paleoclimate simulations to 1 million years. This improved resolution allows a climate-biogeochemical model to more accurately predict climate shifts. The method may be critical in developing new fully continuous methods that are able to be applied over a moving continental surface in deep time with high resolution at reasonable computational expense.
Boris Ťupek, Aleksi Lehtonen, Alla Yurova, Rose Abramoff, Bertrand Guenet, Elisa Bruni, Samuli Launiainen, Mikko Peltoniemi, Shoji Hashimoto, Xianglin Tian, Juha Heikkinen, Kari Minkkinen, and Raisa Mäkipää
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5349–5367, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, 2024
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Updating the Yasso07 soil C model's dependency on decomposition with a hump-shaped Ricker moisture function improved modelled soil organic C (SOC) stocks in a catena of mineral and organic soils in boreal forest. The Ricker function, set to peak at a rate of 1 and calibrated against SOC and CO2 data using a Bayesian approach, showed a maximum in well-drained soils. Using SOC and CO2 data together with the moisture only from the topsoil humus was crucial for accurate model estimates.
Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles Koven, Ryan Knox, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4643–4671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, 2024
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We adapt a fire behavior and effects module for use in a size-structured vegetation demographic model to test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the distribution of tropical forests and grasslands. Our model captures the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining plant distribution and provides a useful tool for understanding the vulnerability of these areas under changing conditions across the tropics.
Yoshiki Kanzaki, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Shuang Zhang, Noah J. Planavsky, and Christopher T. Reinhard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4515–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4515-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4515-2024, 2024
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Soil pH is one of the most commonly measured agronomical and biogeochemical indices, mostly reflecting exchangeable acidity. Explicit simulation of both porewater and bulk soil pH is thus crucial to the accurate evaluation of alkalinity required to counteract soil acidification and the resulting capture of anthropogenic carbon dioxide through the enhanced weathering technique. This has been enabled by the updated reactive–transport SCEPTER code and newly developed framework to simulate soil pH.
David Sandoval, Iain Colin Prentice, and Rodolfo L. B. Nóbrega
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4229–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, 2024
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Numerous estimates of water and energy balances depend on empirical equations requiring site-specific calibration, posing risks of "the right answers for the wrong reasons". We introduce novel first-principles formulations to calculate key quantities without requiring local calibration, matching predictions from complex land surface models.
Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Cathy Smith, Jay Mistry, and James D. A. Millington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3993–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, 2024
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Wildfire is often presented in the media as a danger to human life. Yet globally, millions of people’s livelihoods depend on using fire as a tool. So, patterns of fire emerge from interactions between humans, land use, and climate. This complexity means scientists cannot yet reliably say how fire will be impacted by climate change. So, we developed a new model that represents globally how people use and manage fire. The model reveals the extent and diversity of how humans live with and use fire.
Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, and Timothy Lam
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3733–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3733-2024, 2024
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We have developed the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model in R (TEMIR), which simulates plant carbon and pollutant uptake and predicts their response to varying atmospheric conditions. This model is designed to couple with an atmospheric chemistry model so that questions related to plant–atmosphere interactions, such as the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and ozone pollution on forest carbon uptake, can be addressed. The model has been well validated with both ground and satellite observations.
Fabian Stenzel, Johanna Braun, Jannes Breier, Karlheinz Erb, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Sarah Matej, Sebastian Ostberg, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Wolfgang Lucht
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3235–3258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, 2024
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We provide an R package to compute two biosphere integrity metrics that can be applied to simulations of vegetation growth from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. The pressure metric BioCol indicates that we humans modify and extract > 20 % of the potential preindustrial natural biomass production. The ecosystems state metric EcoRisk shows a high risk of ecosystem destabilization in many regions as a result of climate change and land, water, and fertilizer use.
Elin Ristorp Aas, Heleen A. de Wit, and Terje K. Berntsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2929–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2929-2024, 2024
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By including microbial processes in soil models, we learn how the soil system interacts with its environment and responds to climate change. We present a soil process model, MIMICS+, which is able to reproduce carbon stocks found in boreal forest soils better than a conventional land model. With the model we also find that when adding nitrogen, the relationship between soil microbes changes notably. Coupling the model to a vegetation model will allow for further study of these mechanisms.
Katarína Merganičová, Ján Merganič, Laura Dobor, Roland Hollós, Zoltán Barcza, Dóra Hidy, Zuzana Sitková, Pavel Pavlenda, Hrvoje Marjanovic, Daniel Kurjak, Michal Bošeľa, Doroteja Bitunjac, Masa Zorana Ostrogovic Sever, Jiří Novák, Peter Fleischer, and Tomáš Hlásny
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-45, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We developed a multi-objective calibration approach leading to robust parameter values, aiming to strike a balance between their local precision and broad applicability. Using Biome-BGCMuSo model, we tested the calibrated parameter sets for simulating European beech forest dynamics across large environmental gradients. Leveraging data from 87 plots and five European countries, the results demonstrated reasonable local accuracy and plausible large-scale productivity responses.
Thomas Wutzler, Christian Reimers, Bernhard Ahrens, and Marion Schrumpf
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2705–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2705-2024, 2024
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Soil microbes provide a strong link for elemental fluxes in the earth system. The SESAM model applies an optimality assumption to model those linkages and their adaptation. We found that a previous heuristic description was a special case of a newly developed more rigorous description. The finding of new behaviour at low microbial biomass led us to formulate the constrained enzyme hypothesis. We now can better describe how microbially mediated linkages of elemental fluxes adapt across decades.
Salvatore R. Curasi, Joe R. Melton, Elyn R. Humphreys, Txomin Hermosilla, and Michael A. Wulder
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2683–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, 2024
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Canadian forests are responding to fire, harvest, and climate change. Models need to quantify these processes and their carbon and energy cycling impacts. We develop a scheme that, based on satellite records, represents fire, harvest, and the sparsely vegetated areas that these processes generate. We evaluate model performance and demonstrate the impacts of disturbance on carbon and energy cycling. This work has implications for land surface modeling and assessing Canada’s terrestrial C cycle.
Yannek Käber, Florian Hartig, and Harald Bugmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2727–2753, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2727-2024, 2024
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Many forest models include detailed mechanisms of forest growth and mortality, but regeneration is often simplified. Testing and improving forest regeneration models is challenging. We address this issue by exploring how forest inventories from unmanaged European forests can be used to improve such models. We find that competition for light among trees is captured by the model, unknown model components can be informed by forest inventory data, and climatic effects are challenging to capture.
Jalisha T. Kallingal, Johan Lindström, Paul A. Miller, Janne Rinne, Maarit Raivonen, and Marko Scholze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2299–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, 2024
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By unlocking the mysteries of CH4 emissions from wetlands, our work improved the accuracy of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model using Bayesian statistics. Via assimilation of long-term real data from a wetland, we significantly enhanced CH4 emission predictions. This advancement helps us better understand wetland contributions to atmospheric CH4, which are crucial for addressing climate change. Our method offers a promising tool for refining global climate models and guiding conservation efforts
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, and Christoph Müller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2946, 2024
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We present a new approach to model biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved global sums and spatial patterns of BNF compared to the scientific literature and the models’ ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Benjamin Post, Esteban Acevedo-Trejos, Andrew D. Barton, and Agostino Merico
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1175–1195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1175-2024, 2024
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Creating computational models of how phytoplankton grows in the ocean is a technical challenge. We developed a new tool set (Xarray-simlab-ODE) for building such models using the programming language Python. We demonstrate the tool set in a library of plankton models (Phydra). Our goal was to allow scientists to develop models quickly, while also allowing the model structures to be changed easily. This allows us to test many different structures of our models to find the most appropriate one.
Taeken Wijmer, Ahmad Al Bitar, Ludovic Arnaud, Remy Fieuzal, and Eric Ceschia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 997–1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-997-2024, 2024
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Quantification of carbon fluxes of crops is an essential building block for the construction of a monitoring, reporting, and verification approach. We developed an end-to-end platform (AgriCarbon-EO) that assimilates, through a Bayesian approach, high-resolution (10 m) optical remote sensing data into radiative transfer and crop modelling at regional scale (100 x 100 km). Large-scale estimates of carbon flux are validated against in situ flux towers and yield maps and analysed at regional scale.
Moritz Laub, Sergey Blagodatsky, Marijn Van de Broek, Samuel Schlichenmaier, Benjapon Kunlanit, Johan Six, Patma Vityakon, and Georg Cadisch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 931–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-931-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-931-2024, 2024
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To manage soil organic matter (SOM) sustainably, we need a better understanding of the role that soil microbes play in aggregate protection. Here, we propose the SAMM model, which connects soil aggregate formation to microbial growth. We tested it against data from a tropical long-term experiment and show that SAMM effectively represents the microbial growth, SOM, and aggregate dynamics and that it can be used to explore the importance of aggregate formation in SOM stabilization.
Jianhong Lin, Daniel Berveiller, Christophe François, Heikki Hänninen, Alexandre Morfin, Gaëlle Vincent, Rui Zhang, Cyrille Rathgeber, and Nicolas Delpierre
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 865–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-865-2024, 2024
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Currently, the high variability of budburst between individual trees is overlooked. The consequences of this neglect when projecting the dynamics and functioning of tree communities are unknown. Here we develop the first process-oriented model to describe the difference in budburst dates between individual trees in plant populations. Beyond budburst, the model framework provides a basis for studying the dynamics of phenological traits under climate change, from the individual to the community.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, 2024
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Computational models are used to simulate the behavior of marine ecosystems. The models often have unknown parameters that need to be calibrated to accurately represent observational data. Here, we propose a novel approach to simultaneously determine a large set of parameters for a one-dimensional model of a marine ecosystem in the surface ocean at two contrasting sites. By utilizing global and local optimization techniques, we estimate many parameters in a computationally efficient manner.
Shuaitao Wang, Vincent Thieu, Gilles Billen, Josette Garnier, Marie Silvestre, Audrey Marescaux, Xingcheng Yan, and Nicolas Flipo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 449–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-449-2024, 2024
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This paper presents unified RIVE v1.0, a unified version of the freshwater biogeochemistry model RIVE. It harmonizes different RIVE implementations, providing the referenced formalisms for microorganism activities to describe full biogeochemical cycles in the water column (e.g., carbon, nutrients, oxygen). Implemented as open-source projects in Python 3 (pyRIVE 1.0) and ANSI C (C-RIVE 0.32), unified RIVE v1.0 promotes and enhances collaboration among research teams and public services.
Sam S. Rabin, William J. Sacks, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Lili Xia, and Alan Robock
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7253–7273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, 2023
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Climate models can help us simulate how the agricultural system will be affected by and respond to environmental change, but to be trustworthy they must realistically reproduce historical patterns. When farmers plant their crops and what varieties they choose will be important aspects of future adaptation. Here, we improve the crop component of a global model to better simulate observed growing seasons and examine the impacts on simulated crop yields and irrigation demand.
Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, James A. Franke, Haynes Stephens, and Shuo Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7203–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, 2023
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We develop a machine-learning-based crop model emulator with the inputs and outputs of multiple global gridded crop model ensemble simulations to capture the year-to-year variation of crop yield under future climate change. The emulator can reproduce the year-to-year variation of simulated yield given by the crop models under CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations. Developing this emulator can provide a tool to project future climate change impact in a simple way.
Jurjen Rooze, Heewon Jung, and Hagen Radtke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7107–7121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7107-2023, 2023
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Chemical particles in nature have properties such as age or reactivity. Distributions can describe the properties of chemical concentrations. In nature, they are affected by mixing processes, such as chemical diffusion, burrowing animals, and bottom trawling. We derive equations for simulating the effect of mixing on central moments that describe the distributions. We then demonstrate applications in which these equations are used to model continua in disturbed natural environments.
Esteban Acevedo-Trejos, Jean Braun, Katherine Kravitz, N. Alexia Raharinirina, and Benoît Bovy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6921–6941, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6921-2023, 2023
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The interplay of tectonics and climate influences the evolution of life and the patterns of biodiversity we observe on earth's surface. Here we present an adaptive speciation component coupled with a landscape evolution model that captures the essential earth-surface, ecological, and evolutionary processes that lead to the diversification of taxa. We can illustrate with our tool how life and landforms co-evolve to produce distinct biodiversity patterns on geological timescales.
Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Erik Askov Mousing, Jerry Tjiputra, and Annette Samuelsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6875–6897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, 2023
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We present an along BGC-Argo track 1D modelling framework. The model physics is constrained by the BGC-Argo temperature and salinity profiles to reduce the uncertainties related to mixed layer dynamics, allowing the evaluation of the biogeochemical formulation and parameterization. We objectively analyse the model with BGC-Argo and satellite data and improve the model biogeochemical dynamics. We present the framework, example cases and routines for model improvement and implementations.
Tanya J. R. Lippmann, Ype van der Velde, Monique M. P. D. Heijmans, Han Dolman, Dimmie M. D. Hendriks, and Ko van Huissteden
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6773–6804, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6773-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6773-2023, 2023
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Vegetation is a critical component of carbon storage in peatlands but an often-overlooked concept in many peatland models. We developed a new model capable of simulating the response of vegetation to changing environments and management regimes. We evaluated the model against observed chamber data collected at two peatland sites. We found that daily air temperature, water level, harvest frequency and height, and vegetation composition drive methane and carbon dioxide emissions.
Chonggang Xu, Bradley Christoffersen, Zachary Robbins, Ryan Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Rutuja Chitra-Tarak, Martijn Slot, Kurt Solander, Lara Kueppers, Charles Koven, and Nate McDowell
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6267–6283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, 2023
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We introduce a plant hydrodynamic model for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES). To better understand this new model system and its functionality in tropical forest ecosystems, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We identified the key parameters that affect the simulated plant hydrodynamics to guide both modeling and field campaign studies.
Jianghui Du
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5865–5894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5865-2023, 2023
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Trace elements and isotopes (TEIs) are important tools to study the changes in the ocean environment both today and in the past. However, the behaviors of TEIs in marine sediments are poorly known, limiting our ability to use them in oceanography. Here we present a modeling framework that can be used to generate and run models of the sedimentary cycling of TEIs assisted with advanced numerical tools in the Julia language, lowering the coding barrier for the general user to study marine TEIs.
Siyu Zhu, Peipei Wu, Siyi Zhang, Oliver Jahn, Shu Li, and Yanxu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5915–5929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5915-2023, 2023
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In this study, we estimate the global biogeochemical cycling of Hg in a state-of-the-art physical-ecosystem ocean model (high-resolution-MITgcm/Hg), providing a more accurate portrayal of surface Hg concentrations in estuarine and coastal areas, strong western boundary flow and upwelling areas, and concentration diffusion as vortex shapes. The high-resolution model can help us better predict the transport and fate of Hg in the ocean and its impact on the global Hg cycle.
Maria Val Martin, Elena Blanc-Betes, Ka Ming Fung, Euripides P. Kantzas, Ilsa B. Kantola, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Lyla L. Taylor, Louisa K. Emmons, William R. Wieder, Noah J. Planavsky, Michael D. Masters, Evan H. DeLucia, Amos P. K. Tai, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5783–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, 2023
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Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a CO2 removal strategy that involves applying crushed rocks (e.g., basalt) to agricultural soils. However, unintended processes within the N cycle due to soil pH changes may affect the climate benefits of C sequestration. ERW could drive changes in soil emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (N2O) and trace gases (NO and NH3) that may affect air quality. We present a new improved N cycling scheme for the land model (CLM5) to evaluate ERW effects on soil gas N emissions.
Özgür Gürses, Laurent Oziel, Onur Karakuş, Dmitry Sidorenko, Christoph Völker, Ying Ye, Moritz Zeising, Martin Butzin, and Judith Hauck
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4883–4936, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, 2023
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This paper assesses the biogeochemical model REcoM3 coupled to the ocean–sea ice model FESOM2.1. The model can be used to simulate the carbon uptake or release of the ocean on timescales of several hundred years. A detailed analysis of the nutrients, ocean productivity, and ecosystem is followed by the carbon cycle. The main conclusion is that the model performs well when simulating the observed mean biogeochemical state and variability and is comparable to other ocean–biogeochemical models.
Hocheol Seo and Yeonjoo Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4699–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4699-2023, 2023
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Wildfire is a crucial factor in carbon and water fluxes on the Earth system. About 2.1 Pg of carbon is released into the atmosphere by wildfires annually. Because the fire processes are still limitedly represented in land surface models, we forced the daily GFED4 burned area into the land surface model over Alaska and Siberia. The results with the GFED4 burned area significantly improved the simulated carbon emissions and net ecosystem exchange compared to the default simulation.
Hideki Ninomiya, Tomomichi Kato, Lea Végh, and Lan Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4155–4170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4155-2023, 2023
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Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) play a crucial role in plants to counteract the effects of climate change. We added a new NSC module into the SEIB-DGVM, an individual-based ecosystem model. The simulated NSC levels and their seasonal patterns show a strong agreement with observed NSC data at both point and global scales. The model can be used to simulate the biotic effects resulting from insufficient NSCs, which are otherwise difficult to measure in terrestrial ecosystems globally.
Guillaume Marie, Jina Jeong, Hervé Jactel, Gunnar Petter, Maxime Cailleret, Matthew McGrath, Vladislav Bastrikov, Josefine Ghattas, Bertrand Guenet, Anne-Sofie Lansø, Kim Naudts, Aude Valade, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1216, 2023
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This research looks at how climate change influences forests, particularly how altered wind and insect activities could make forests emit, instead of absorb, carbon. We've updated a land surface model called ORCHIDEE to better examine the effect of bark beetles on forest health. Our findings suggest that sudden events, like insect outbreaks, can dramatically affect carbon storage, offering crucial insights for tackling climate change.
Miquel De Cáceres, Roberto Molowny-Horas, Antoine Cabon, Jordi Martínez-Vilalta, Maurizio Mencuccini, Raúl García-Valdés, Daniel Nadal-Sala, Santiago Sabaté, Nicolas Martin-StPaul, Xavier Morin, Francesco D'Adamo, Enric Batllori, and Aitor Améztegui
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3165–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3165-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3165-2023, 2023
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Regional-level applications of dynamic vegetation models are challenging because they need to accommodate the variation in plant functional diversity. This can be done by estimating parameters from available plant trait databases while adopting alternative solutions for missing data. Here we present the design, parameterization and evaluation of MEDFATE (version 2.9.3), a novel model of forest dynamics for its application over a region in the western Mediterranean Basin.
Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2455–2475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, 2023
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We develop a livestock module for the global vegetation model LPJmL5.0 to simulate the impact of grazing dairy cattle on carbon and nitrogen cycles in grasslands. A novelty of the approach is that it accounts for the effect of feed quality on feed uptake and feed utilization by animals. The portioning of dietary nitrogen into milk, feces, and urine shows very good agreement with estimates obtained from animal trials.
Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, Stephen Sitch, Nadine Unger, Johan Uddling, Lina M. Mercado, Cheng Gong, Zhaozhong Feng, Huiyi Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yang Cao, Yadong Lei, Alexander W. Cheesman, Yansen Xu, and Maria Carolina Duran Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2261–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, 2023
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Plants have been found to respond differently to O3, but the variations in the sensitivities have rarely been explained nor fully implemented in large-scale assessment. This study proposes a new O3 damage scheme with leaf mass per area to unify varied sensitivities for all plant species. Our assessment reveals an O3-induced reduction of 4.8 % in global GPP, with the highest reduction of >10 % for cropland, suggesting an emerging risk of crop yield loss under the threat of O3 pollution.
Winslow D. Hansen, Adrianna Foster, Benjamin Gaglioti, Rupert Seidl, and Werner Rammer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2011-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2011-2023, 2023
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Permafrost and the thick soil-surface organic layers that insulate permafrost are important controls of boreal forest dynamics and carbon cycling. However, both are rarely included in process-based vegetation models used to simulate future ecosystem trajectories. To address this challenge, we developed a computationally efficient permafrost and soil organic layer module that operates at fine spatial (1 ha) and temporal (daily) resolutions.
Heewon Jung, Hyun-Seob Song, and Christof Meile
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1683-2023, 2023
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Microbial activity responsible for many chemical transformations depends on environmental conditions. These can vary locally, e.g., between poorly connected pores in porous media. We present a modeling framework that resolves such small spatial scales explicitly, accounts for feedback between transport and biogeochemical conditions, and can integrate state-of-the-art representations of microbes in a computationally efficient way, making it broadly applicable in science and engineering use cases.
Arthur Guignabert, Quentin Ponette, Frédéric André, Christian Messier, Philippe Nolet, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1661–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1661-2023, 2023
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Spatially explicit and process-based models are useful to test innovative forestry practices under changing and uncertain conditions. However, their larger use is often limited by the restricted range of species and stand structures they can reliably account for. We therefore calibrated and evaluated such a model, HETEROFOR, for 23 species across southern Québec. Our results showed that the model is robust and can predict accurately both individual tree growth and stand dynamics in this region.
Maureen Beaudor, Nicolas Vuichard, Juliette Lathière, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1053–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1053-2023, 2023
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Ammonia mainly comes from the agricultural sector, and its volatilization relies on environmental variables. Our approach aims at benefiting from an Earth system model framework to estimate it. By doing so, we represent a consistent spatial distribution of the emissions' response to environmental changes.
We greatly improved the seasonal cycle of emissions compared with previous work. In addition, our model includes natural soil emissions (that are rarely represented in modeling approaches).
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Short summary
We present a concept to prove that a parametric model is well calibrated, i.e., that changes of its free parameters cannot lead to a much better model–data misfit anymore. The intention is motivated by the fact that calibrating global biogeochemical ocean models is important for assessment and inter-model comparison but computationally expensive.
We present a concept to prove that a parametric model is well calibrated, i.e., that changes of...
