Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model description paper
| Highlight paper
| 
03 Jan 2018
Model description paper | Highlight paper |
| 03 Jan 2018
The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system
Huw W. Lewis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Jennifer Graham
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Andrew Saulter
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Jorge Bornemann
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Alex Arnold
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Joachim Fallmann
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Chris Harris
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
David Pearson
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Steven Ramsdale
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Alberto Martínez-de la Torre
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Lucy Bricheno
National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK
Eleanor Blyth
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Victoria A. Bell
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Helen Davies
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Toby R. Marthews
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Clare O'Neill
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Heather Rumbold
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Enda O'Dea
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Ashley Brereton
National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK
Karen Guihou
National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK
Adrian Hines
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Momme Butenschon
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, PL1 2LP, UK
Simon J. Dadson
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
Tamzin Palmer
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Jason Holt
National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK
Nick Reynard
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Martin Best
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
John Edwards
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
John Siddorn
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
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Diego Bruciaferri, Marina Tonani, Isabella Ascione, Fahad Al Senafi, Enda O'Dea, Helene T. Hewitt, and Andrew Saulter
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8705–8730, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8705-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8705-2022, 2022
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5157–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5157-2022, 2022
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-243, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-243, 2022
Preprint under review for HESS
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Toby R. Marthews, Simon J. Dadson, Douglas B. Clark, Eleanor M. Blyth, Garry D. Hayman, Dai Yamazaki, Olivia R. E. Becher, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Catherine Prigent, and Carlos Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3151–3175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, 2022
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Reliable data on global inundated areas remain uncertain. By matching a leading global data product on inundation extents (GIEMS) against predictions from a global hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood), we found small but consistent and non-random biases in well-known tropical wetlands (Sudd, Pantanal, Amazon and Congo). These result from known limitations in the data and the models used, which shows us how to improve our ability to make critical predictions of inundation events in the future.
Thomas Lees, Steven Reece, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Jens De Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Peter Greve, Louise Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3079–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, 2022
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Despite the accuracy of deep learning rainfall-runoff models, we are currently uncertain of what these models have learned. In this study we explore the internals of one deep learning architecture and demonstrate that the model learns about intermediate hydrological stores of soil moisture and snow water, despite never having seen data about these processes during training. Therefore, we find evidence that the deep learning approach learns a physically realistic mapping from inputs to outputs.
Patrick Le Moigne, Eric Bazile, Anning Cheng, Emanuel Dutra, John M. Edwards, William Maurel, Irina Sandu, Olivier Traullé, Etienne Vignon, Ayrton Zadra, and Weizhong Zheng
The Cryosphere, 16, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2183-2022, 2022
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This paper describes an intercomparison of snow models, of varying complexity, used for numerical weather prediction or academic research. The results show that the simplest models are, under certain conditions, able to reproduce the surface temperature just as well as the most complex models. Moreover, the diversity of surface parameters of the models has a strong impact on the temporal variability of the components of the simulated surface energy balance.
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
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A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Moctar Dembélé, Mathieu Vrac, Natalie Ceperley, Sander J. Zwart, Josh Larsen, Simon J. Dadson, Grégoire Mariéthoz, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, 2022
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Climate change impacts on water resources in the Volta River basin are investigated under various global warming scenarios. Results reveal contrasting changes in future hydrological processes and water availability, depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with implications for floods and drought occurrence over the 21st century. These findings provide insights for the elaboration of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
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High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Thomas Lees, Marcus Buechel, Bailey Anderson, Louise Slater, Steven Reece, Gemma Coxon, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5517–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, 2021
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We used deep learning (DL) models to simulate the amount of water moving through a river channel (discharge) based on the rainfall, temperature and potential evaporation in the previous days. We tested the DL models on catchments across Great Britain finding that the model can accurately simulate hydrological systems across a variety of catchment conditions. Ultimately, the model struggled most in areas where there is chalky bedrock and where human influence on the catchment is large.
Vinod Kumar, Julia Remmers, Steffen Beirle, Joachim Fallmann, Astrid Kerkweg, Jos Lelieveld, Mariano Mertens, Andrea Pozzer, Benedikt Steil, Marc Barra, Holger Tost, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5241–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5241-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5241-2021, 2021
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We present high-resolution regional atmospheric chemistry model simulations focused around Germany. We highlight the importance of spatial resolution of the model itself as well as the input emissions inventory and short-scale temporal variability of emissions for simulations. We propose a consistent approach for evaluating the simulated vertical distribution of NO2 using MAX-DOAS measurements while also considering its spatial sensitivity volume and change in sensitivity within this volume.
Jennifer Saxby, Julia Crook, Simon Peatman, Cathryn Birch, Juliane Schwendike, Maria Valdivieso da Costa, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Chris Holloway, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Ashis Mitra, and Huw Lewis
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
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This study assesses the ability of the new Met Office IND1 numerical model to simulate tropical cyclones and their associated hazards, such as high winds and heavy rainfall. The new system consists of both atmospheric and oceanic models coupled together, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of cyclones to important air–sea feedbacks. We find that the model can accurately simulate tropical cyclone position, structure, and intensity, which are crucial for predicting and mitigating hazards.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
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Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Anna B. Harper, Karina E. Williams, Patrick C. McGuire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, Debbie Hemming, Anne Verhoef, Chris Huntingford, Lucy Rowland, Toby Marthews, Cleiton Breder Eller, Camilla Mathison, Rodolfo L. B. Nobrega, Nicola Gedney, Pier Luigi Vidale, Fred Otu-Larbi, Divya Pandey, Sebastien Garrigues, Azin Wright, Darren Slevin, Martin G. De Kauwe, Eleanor Blyth, Jonas Ardö, Andrew Black, Damien Bonal, Nina Buchmann, Benoit Burban, Kathrin Fuchs, Agnès de Grandcourt, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Leonardo Montagnani, Yann Nouvellon, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3269–3294, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3269-2021, 2021
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We evaluated 10 representations of soil moisture stress in the JULES land surface model against site observations of GPP and latent heat flux. Increasing the soil depth and plant access to deep soil moisture improved many aspects of the simulations, and we recommend these settings in future work using JULES. In addition, using soil matric potential presents the opportunity to include parameters specific to plant functional type to further improve modeled fluxes.
Elizabeth Cooper, Eleanor Blyth, Hollie Cooper, Rich Ellis, Ewan Pinnington, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, 2021
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Soil moisture estimates from land surface models are important for forecasting floods, droughts, weather, and climate trends. We show that by combining model estimates of soil moisture with measurements from field-scale, ground-based sensors, we can improve the performance of the land surface model in predicting soil moisture values.
Hollie M. Cooper, Emma Bennett, James Blake, Eleanor Blyth, David Boorman, Elizabeth Cooper, Jonathan Evans, Matthew Fry, Alan Jenkins, Ross Morrison, Daniel Rylett, Simon Stanley, Magdalena Szczykulska, Emily Trill, Vasileios Antoniou, Anne Askquith-Ellis, Lucy Ball, Milo Brooks, Michael A. Clarke, Nicholas Cowan, Alexander Cumming, Philip Farrand, Olivia Hitt, William Lord, Peter Scarlett, Oliver Swain, Jenna Thornton, Alan Warwick, and Ben Winterbourn
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1737–1757, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1737-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1737-2021, 2021
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COSMOS-UK is a UK network of environmental monitoring sites, with a focus on measuring field-scale soil moisture. Each site includes soil and hydrometeorological sensors providing data including air temperature, humidity, net radiation, neutron counts, snow water equivalent, and potential evaporation. These data can provide information for science, industry, and agriculture by improving existing understanding and data products in fields such as water resources, space sciences, and biodiversity.
Simon J. Dadson, Eleanor Blyth, Douglas Clark, Helen Davies, Richard Ellis, Huw Lewis, Toby Marthews, and Ponnambalan Rameshwaran
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-60, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Flood prediction helps national and regional planning and real-time flood response. In this study we apply and test a new way to make wide area predictions of flooding which can be combined with weather forecasting and climate models to give faster predictions of flooded areas. By simplifying the detailed floodplain topography we can keep track of the fraction of land flooded for hazard mapping purposes. When tested this approach accurately reproduces benchmark datasets for England.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, 2020
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We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Mike Bush, Tom Allen, Caroline Bain, Ian Boutle, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Charmaine Franklin, Kirsty Hanley, Humphrey Lean, Adrian Lock, James Manners, Marion Mittermaier, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Jon Petch, Chris Short, Simon Vosper, David Walters, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Nigel Wood, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1999–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1999-2020, 2020
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In this paper we define the first Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL) science configuration for kilometre-scale modelling using the Unified Model (UM) as the basis for the atmosphere and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for the land. RAL1 defines the science configuration of the dynamics and physics schemes of the atmosphere and land. This configuration will provide a model baseline for any future weather or climate model developments to be described against.
Sam Jones, Mark Inall, Marie Porter, Jennifer A. Graham, and Finlo Cottier
Ocean Sci., 16, 389–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-389-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-389-2020, 2020
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The ocean is an important source of nutrients and organisms to coastal waters, but it is not clear what controls current flow between the deep ocean and the coast. We contrasted ocean flow pathways and coastal water properties between summer 2013 and a series of intense storms in December 2013. Further, we assessed the likelihood of storms occurring over the North Atlantic during each winter. We found that local weather patterns exert a strong influence on coastal water properties and origins.
Jian Peng, Simon Dadson, Feyera Hirpa, Ellen Dyer, Thomas Lees, Diego G. Miralles, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Chris Funk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 753–769, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-753-2020, 2020
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Africa has been severely influenced by intense drought events, which has led to crop failure, food shortages, famine, epidemics and even mass migration. The current study developed a high spatial resolution drought dataset entirely from satellite-based products. The dataset has been comprehensively inter-compared with other drought indicators and may contribute to an improved characterization of drought risk and vulnerability and minimize drought's impact on water and food security in Africa.
Karen Guihou, Alberto R. Piola, Elbio D. Palma, and Maria Paz Chidichimo
Ocean Sci., 16, 271–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-271-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-271-2020, 2020
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The exchange between the Humboldt and Patagonian large marine ecosystems, the largest marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere, is investigated with numerical simulations. Most of the southern Patagonian Shelf waters originate from the South Pacific's upper layer. The exchange takes place mainly through the shelf break via the Cape Horn shelf. The interannual variability of shelf exchange is partly explained by the large-scale wind variability and associated with the Southern Annular Mode.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, John M. Edwards, Nicola Gedney, Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Hartley, Margaret A. Hendry, Eddy Robertson, and Kerry Smout-Day
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 483–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, 2020
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We present the Global Land (GL) configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES-GL7 can be used to simulate the exchange of heat, water and momentum over land and is therefore applicable for helping understand past and future changes, and forms the land component of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 climate model. The configuration is freely available subject to licence restrictions.
Toby R. Marthews, Eleanor M. Blyth, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and Ted I. E. Veldkamp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-75-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-75-2020, 2020
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Climate change impact modellers can only act on predictions of the occurrence of an extreme event in the Earth system if they know the uncertainty in that prediction and how uncertainty is attributable to different model components. Using eartH2Observe data, we quantify the balance between different sources of uncertainty in global evapotranspiration and runoff, making a crucial contribution to understanding the spatial distribution of water resources allocation deficiencies.
Alberto Martínez-de la Torre and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4909–4932, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4909-2019, 2019
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Over semi-arid regions, it is essential to have a correct representation of the groundwater processes in climate modelling. We present a land surface and groundwater model that incorporates groundwater–soil interactions, groundwater–rivers flow and lateral transport at the subsurface. We study the groundwater influence on soil moisture distribution and memory, and on evapotranspiration in the Iberian Peninsula. Shallow water table regions persist and provide water to the surface during droughts.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, Jonah Roberts-Jones, Chris Harris, Daniel J. Lea, Andrew Ryan, and Isabella Ascione
Ocean Sci., 15, 1307–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1307-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1307-2019, 2019
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Coupled atmosphere–ocean modelling systems allow changes in the ocean to directly and immediately feed back on the atmosphere and enable improved weather prediction and ocean forecasts. This is particularly true if the coupled feedbacks are also considered in the way real-time observations of the atmospheric and oceanic states are used to obtain the initial conditions for the forecasts. Here we demonstrate promising performance from such a coupled system when used for ocean prediction.
Marina Tonani, Peter Sykes, Robert R. King, Niall McConnell, Anne-Christine Péquignet, Enda O'Dea, Jennifer A. Graham, Jeff Polton, and John Siddorn
Ocean Sci., 15, 1133–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1133-2019, 2019
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A new high-resolution ocean model at 1.5 km has replaced the 7 km system for delivering short-term forecasts of the North-West European Shelf seas. The products (temperature, salinity, currents, and sea surface height) are available on the Copernicus Marine Service catalogue. This study focuses on the high-resolution impact on the quality of the products delivered to the users. Results show that the high-resolution model is better at resolving the variability of the physical variables.
Huw W. Lewis, John Siddorn, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Jon Petch, John M. Edwards, and Tim Smyth
Ocean Sci., 15, 761–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-761-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-761-2019, 2019
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Oceans are modified at the surface by winds and by the exchange of heat with the atmosphere. The effect of changing atmospheric information that is available to drive an ocean model of north-west Europe, which can simulate small-scale details of the ocean state, is tested. We show that simulated temperatures agree better with observations located near the coast around the south-west UK when using data from a high-resolution atmospheric model, and when atmosphere and ocean feedbacks are included.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Alex Arnold, Joachim Fallmann, Andrew Saulter, Jennifer Graham, Mike Bush, John Siddorn, Tamzin Palmer, Adrian Lock, John Edwards, Lucy Bricheno, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and James Clark
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2357–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019, 2019
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In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet the prediction systems used for weather and ocean forecasting tend to treat them in isolation. This paper describes the third version of a regional modelling system which aims to represent the feedback processes between sky, sea and land. The main innovation introduced in this version enables waves to affect the underlying ocean. Coupled results from four different month-long simulations are analysed.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, John Siddorn, Robert R. King, Marina Tonani, Andrew Saulter, Peter Sykes, Anne-Christine Pequignet, Graham P. Weedon, Tamzin Palmer, Joanna Staneva, and Lucy Bricheno
Ocean Sci., 15, 669–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019, 2019
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Forecasts of ocean temperature, salinity, currents, and sea height can be improved by linking state-of-the-art ocean and wave models, so that they can interact to better represent the real world. We test this approach in an ocean model of north-west Europe which can simulate small-scale details of the ocean state. The intention is to implement the system described in this study for operational use so that improved information can be provided to users of ocean forecast data.
David Walters, Anthony J. Baran, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Kalli Furtado, Peter Hill, Adrian Lock, James Manners, Cyril Morcrette, Jane Mulcahy, Claudio Sanchez, Chris Smith, Rachel Stratton, Warren Tennant, Lorenzo Tomassini, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Simon Vosper, Martin Willett, Jo Browse, Andrew Bushell, Kenneth Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Richard Essery, Nicola Gedney, Steven Hardiman, Ben Johnson, Colin Johnson, Andy Jones, Colin Jones, Graham Mann, Sean Milton, Heather Rumbold, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Michael Whitall, Keith Williams, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019
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Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA7/GL7, which includes new aerosol and snow schemes and addresses the four critical errors identified in GA6. GA7/GL7 will underpin the UK's contributions to CMIP6, and hence their documentation is important.
Jennifer K. Brooke, R. Chawn Harlow, Russell L. Scott, Martin J. Best, John M. Edwards, Jean-Claude Thelen, and Mark Weeks
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1703–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1703-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1703-2019, 2019
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This paper evaluates a significant cold land surface temperature bias in semi-arid regions in the Met Office Unified Model when compared with satellite observations. Sparse vegetation canopies are not well represented in ancillary datasets, in particular regions of cold bias are correlated with low bare soil cover fractions. The study demonstrates the difficulties in modelling land surface temperatures that match state-of-the-art satellite retrievals required for operational data assimilation.
Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, Jan Polcher, Clément Albergel, Emanuel Dutra, Gabriel Fink, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and Simon Munier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1973–1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1973-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1973-2019, 2019
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This study investigates the propagation of precipitation uncertainty, and its interaction with hydrologic modeling, in global water resource reanalysis. Analysis is based on ensemble hydrologic simulations for a period of 11 years based on six global hydrologic models and five precipitation datasets. Results show that uncertainties in the model simulations are attributed to both uncertainty in precipitation forcing and the model structure.
Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Eleanor M. Blyth, and Graham P. Weedon
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 765–784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-765-2019, 2019
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Land–surface interactions with the atmosphere are key for weather and climate modelling studies, both in research and in the operational systems that provide scientific tools for decision makers. Regional assessments will be influenced by the characteristics of the land. We improved the representation of river flows in Great Britain by including a dependency on the terrain slope. This development will be reflected not only in river flows, but in the whole water cycle represented by the model.
Joanne Williams, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Andrew Saulter, and Kevin J. Horsburgh
Ocean Sci., 14, 1057–1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1057-2018, 2018
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Tide predictions based on tide-gauge observations are not just astronomical tides; they also contain periodic sea level changes due to the weather. Forecasts of total water level during storm surges add the immediate effects of the weather to the astronomical tide prediction and thus risk double-counting these effects. We use a global model to see how much double-counting may affect these forecasts and also how much of the Highest Astronomical Tide may be due to recurrent weather patterns.
Andrew R. Porter, Jeremy Appleyard, Mike Ashworth, Rupert W. Ford, Jason Holt, Hedong Liu, and Graham D. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3447–3464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3447-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3447-2018, 2018
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Developing computer models in the earth-system domain is a complex and expensive process that can have a duration measured in years. The supercomputers required to run these models, however, are evolving fast with a proliferation of technologies and associated programming models. As a result there is a need that models be "performance portable" between different supercomputers. This paper investigates a way of doing this through a separation of the concerns of performance and natural science.
Eleanor M. Blyth, Alberto Martinez-de la Torre, and Emma L. Robinson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-153, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In a warming climate, the water budget of the land is subject to varying forces such as increasing evaporative demand, mainly through the increased temperature, and changes to the precipitation, which might go up or down. Using a verified, physically based model over with 55 years, an analysis of the water budget demonstrates that Great Britain is getting warmer and wetter. We demonstrated that amount of water captured on the trees has an impact on the overall trend.
Jennifer A. Graham, Enda O'Dea, Jason Holt, Jeff Polton, Helene T. Hewitt, Rachel Furner, Karen Guihou, Ashley Brereton, Alex Arnold, Sarah Wakelin, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, and C. Gabriela Mayorga Adame
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 681–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-681-2018, 2018
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This paper describes the next-generation ocean forecast model for the European NW shelf, AMM15 (Atlantic Margin Model, 1.5 km resolution). The current forecast system has a resolution of 7 km. While this is sufficient to represent large-scale circulation, many dynamical features (such as eddies, frontal jets, and internal tides) can only begin to be resolved at 0–1 km resolution. Here we introduce AMM15 and demonstrate its ability to represent the mean state and variability of the region.
Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Eleanor M. Blyth, and Graham P. Weedon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-750, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-750, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Land surface interactions with the atmosphere are key for weather and climate modelling studies, both in research and in the operational systems that provide scientific tools for decision makers. Regional assessments will be influenced by the characteristics of the land. We improved the representation of Great Britain river flows by including a dependency on terrain slope. This development will be reflected not only in river flows, but in the whole water cycle represented by the model/system.
Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson, Gemma Coxon, Gianbattista Bussi, James Freer, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Myles R. Allen, and Jim W. Hall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 611–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018, 2018
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Assessing the potential impacts of extreme events such as drought and flood requires large datasets of such events, especially when looking at the most severe and rare events. Using a state-of-the-art climate modelling infrastructure that is simulating large numbers of weather time series on volunteers' computers, we generate such a large dataset for the United Kingdom. The dataset covers the recent past (1900–2006) as well as two future time periods (2030s and 2080s).
Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Alison L. Kay, Anca Brookshaw, and Adam A. Scaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4681–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, 2017
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The research presented here provides the first evaluation of the skill of a seasonal hydrological forecast for the UK. The forecast scheme combines rainfall forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with a national-scale hydrological model to provide estimates of river flows 1 to 3 months ahead. The skill in the combined model is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and the analysis indicates that Autumn/Winter flows can be forecast with reasonable confidence.
Enda O'Dea, Rachel Furner, Sarah Wakelin, John Siddorn, James While, Peter Sykes, Robert King, Jason Holt, and Helene Hewitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2947–2969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2947-2017, 2017
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An update to an ocean modelling configuration for the European North West Shelf is described. It is assessed against observations and climatologies for 1981–2012. Sensitivities in the model configuration updates are assessed to understand changes in the model system. The model improves upon an existing model of the region, although there remain some areas with significant biases. The paper highlights the dependence upon the quality of the river inputs.
Pierre Mathiot, Adrian Jenkins, Christopher Harris, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2849–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2849-2017, 2017
Jaap Schellekens, Emanuel Dutra, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Albert van Dijk, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Marie Minvielle, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Bertrand Decharme, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Rens van Beek, Jan Polcher, Hylke Beck, René Orth, Ben Calton, Sophia Burke, Wouter Dorigo, and Graham P. Weedon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 389–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, 2017
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The dataset combines the results of 10 global models that describe the global continental water cycle. The data can be used as input for water resources studies, flood frequency studies etc. at different scales from continental to medium-scale catchments. We compared the results with earth observation data and conclude that most uncertainties are found in snow-dominated regions and tropical rainforest and monsoon regions.
Joost Iwema, Rafael Rosolem, Mostaquimur Rahman, Eleanor Blyth, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2843–2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2843-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2843-2017, 2017
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We investigated whether the simulation of water flux from the land surface to the atmosphere (using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator model) could be improved by replacing traditional soil moisture sensor data with data from the more novel Cosmic-Ray Neutron soil moisture sensor. Despite observed differences between the two types of soil moisture measurement data, we found no substantial differences in improvement in water flux estimation, based on multiple calibration experiments.
David Walters, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Thomas Melvin, Rachel Stratton, Simon Vosper, Helen Wells, Keith Williams, Nigel Wood, Thomas Allen, Andrew Bushell, Dan Copsey, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Markus Gross, Steven Hardiman, Chris Harris, Julian Heming, Nicholas Klingaman, Richard Levine, James Manners, Gill Martin, Sean Milton, Marion Mittermaier, Cyril Morcrette, Thomas Riddick, Malcolm Roberts, Claudio Sanchez, Paul Selwood, Alison Stirling, Chris Smith, Dan Suri, Warren Tennant, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jonathan Wilkinson, Martin Willett, Steve Woolnough, and Prince Xavier
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1487–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, 2017
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Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
Emma L. Robinson, Eleanor M. Blyth, Douglas B. Clark, Jon Finch, and Alison C. Rudd
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1189–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1189-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1189-2017, 2017
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We present a dataset of daily meteorological variables at 1 km resolution over Great Britain (1961–2012), calculated by spatially downscaling coarser resolution datasets, adjusting for local topography, along with derived potential evapotranspiration (PET). A positive trend in PET was identified and attributed to trends in the meteorology. The trend in PET is particularly driven by decreasing relative humidity and increasing shortwave radiation in the spring.
Jason Holt, Patrick Hyder, Mike Ashworth, James Harle, Helene T. Hewitt, Hedong Liu, Adrian L. New, Stephen Pickles, Andrew Porter, Ekaterina Popova, J. Icarus Allen, John Siddorn, and Richard Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 499–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, 2017
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Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models is one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. Here, we explore what the options are for improving this by exploring what the important physical processes are that need to be represented. We use a simple scale analysis to investigate how large the resulting models would need to be. We then compare this with how computer power is increasing to provide estimates of when this might be feasible in the future.
Helene T. Hewitt, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pat Hyder, Tim Graham, Jamie Rae, Stephen E. Belcher, Romain Bourdallé-Badie, Dan Copsey, Andrew Coward, Catherine Guiavarch, Chris Harris, Richard Hill, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Gurvan Madec, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Erica Neininger, Adrian L. New, Jean-Christophe Rioual, Bablu Sinha, David Storkey, Ann Shelly, Livia Thorpe, and Richard A. Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3655–3670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3655-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3655-2016, 2016
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We examine the impact in a coupled model of increasing atmosphere and ocean horizontal resolution and the frequency of coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. We demonstrate that increasing the ocean resolution from 1/4 degree to 1/12 degree has a major impact on ocean circulation and global heat transports. The results add to the body of evidence suggesting that ocean resolution is an important consideration when developing coupled models for weather and climate applications.
Claudie Beaulieu, Harriet Cole, Stephanie Henson, Andrew Yool, Thomas R. Anderson, Lee de Mora, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Momme Butenschön, Ian J. Totterdell, and J. Icarus Allen
Biogeosciences, 13, 4533–4553, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4533-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4533-2016, 2016
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Regime shifts have been suggested in the late 1970s and late 1980s in the Gulf of Alaska with important consequences for fisheries. Here we investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemical models of varying complexity to simulate these regime shifts. Our results demonstrate that ocean models can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby improving our understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels.
Jun She, Icarus Allen, Erik Buch, Alessandro Crise, Johnny A. Johannessen, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Urmas Lips, Glenn Nolan, Nadia Pinardi, Jan H. Reißmann, John Siddorn, Emil Stanev, and Henning Wehde
Ocean Sci., 12, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, 2016
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This white paper addresses key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5–10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European ocean observations, modelling and forecasting technology, coastal operational oceanography, and operational ecology.
Heather Cannaby, Matthew D. Palmer, Tom Howard, Lucy Bricheno, Daley Calvert, Justin Krijnen, Richard Wood, Jonathan Tinker, Chris Bunney, James Harle, Andrew Saulter, Clare O'Neill, Clare Bellingham, and Jason Lowe
Ocean Sci., 12, 613–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, 2016
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The Singapore government commissioned a modelling study of regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events. We find that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century, these being 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenario.
Momme Butenschön, James Clark, John N. Aldridge, Julian Icarus Allen, Yuri Artioli, Jeremy Blackford, Jorn Bruggeman, Pierre Cazenave, Stefano Ciavatta, Susan Kay, Gennadi Lessin, Sonja van Leeuwen, Johan van der Molen, Lee de Mora, Luca Polimene, Sevrine Sailley, Nicholas Stephens, and Ricardo Torres
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1293–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016, 2016
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ERSEM 15.06 is a model for marine biogeochemistry and the lower trophic levels of the marine food web. It comprises a pelagic and benthic sub-model including the microbial food web and the major biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, silicate, and iron using dynamic stochiometry. Further features include modules for the carbonate system and calcification. We present full mathematical descriptions of all elements along with examples at various scales up to 3-D applications.
Alex E. West, Alison J. McLaren, Helene T. Hewitt, and Martin J. Best
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1125–1141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1125-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1125-2016, 2016
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This study compares two methods of coupling a sea ice model to an atmospheric model in a series of idealized one-dimensional experiments. The JULES method calculates surface variables in the atmosphere; the CICE method calculates surface variables in the sea ice. It is found that simulations of all variables are more accurate in the JULES method, likely because of the shorter time step of the atmosphere.
J. R. Siddorn, S. A. Good, C. M. Harris, H. W. Lewis, J. Maksymczuk, M. J. Martin, and A. Saulter
Ocean Sci., 12, 217–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-217-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-217-2016, 2016
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The Met Office provides a range of services in the marine environment. To support these services, and to ensure they evolve to meet the demands of users and are based on the best available science, a number of scientific challenges need to be addressed. The paper summarises the key challenges, and highlights some priorities for the ocean monitoring and forecasting research group at the Met Office.
L. de Mora, M. Butenschön, and J. I. Allen
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 59–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-59-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-59-2016, 2016
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To use models to inform policy or to forecast the impact of climate change, the model must first be shown to be a valid representation of the ecosystem. Here we show an novel method to validate a marine model using its ability to represent ecosystem function. These relationships are the community structure, the carbon to chlorophyll ratio and the stoichiometric balance of the ecosystem. These methods are powerful, valid over large spatial scales and independent of the circulation model.
M. Haller, F. Janssen, J. Siddorn, W. Petersen, and S. Dick
Ocean Sci., 11, 879–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-879-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-879-2015, 2015
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Automated measurement systems called FerryBox are installed on cargo ships in the North Sea. Operational model forecasts have been compared to FerryBox data of water temperature and salinity. We wanted to know how well the simulations agree with the observations. We found out that water temperature simulation gives satisfying results, while salinity simulation still could be improved. It turned out that assimilation of observational data into operational models gives strong benefits.
J. G. L. Rae, H. T. Hewitt, A. B. Keen, J. K. Ridley, A. E. West, C. M. Harris, E. C. Hunke, and D. N. Walters
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2221–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2221-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2221-2015, 2015
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The paper presents a new sea ice configuration, GSI6.0, in the Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice model. Differences in the sea ice from a previous configuration (GSI4.0) are explained in the context of a previously published sensitivity study. In summer, Arctic sea ice is thicker and more extensive than in GSI4.0, bringing it closer to the observationally derived data sets. In winter, the Arctic ice is thicker but less extensive than in GSI4.0.
K. D. Williams, C. M. Harris, A. Bodas-Salcedo, J. Camp, R. E. Comer, D. Copsey, D. Fereday, T. Graham, R. Hill, T. Hinton, P. Hyder, S. Ineson, G. Masato, S. F. Milton, M. J. Roberts, D. P. Rowell, C. Sanchez, A. Shelly, B. Sinha, D. N. Walters, A. West, T. Woollings, and P. K. Xavier
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1509–1524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015, 2015
I. D. Culverwell, H. W. Lewis, D. Offiler, C. Marquardt, and C. P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 1887–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1887-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1887-2015, 2015
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This paper describes the Radio Occultation Processing Package, ROPP, which is a suite of freely available programs provided by EUMETSAT for the processing of radio occultation data. Its capabilities are briefly reviewed, and examples of its use are given. Some current and prospective uses of ROPP are listed.
T. R. Marthews, S. J. Dadson, B. Lehner, S. Abele, and N. Gedney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 91–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-91-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-91-2015, 2015
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Modelling land surface water flow is of critical importance in the context of climate change predictions. Many approaches are based on the popular hydrology model TOPMODEL, and the most important parameter of this model is the well-known topographic index. Here we present new, higher-resolution parameter maps of the topographic index, which are ideal for land surface modelling applications and show important improvements on the previous standard maps from HYDRO1k.
L. Kwiatkowski, A. Yool, J. I. Allen, T. R. Anderson, R. Barciela, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. Butenschön, C. Enright, P. R. Halloran, C. Le Quéré, L. de Mora, M.-F. Racault, B. Sinha, I. J. Totterdell, and P. M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 11, 7291–7304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, 2014
E. M. Blyth, R. Oliver, and N. Gedney
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-17967-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-17967-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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By studying patterns of soil carbon in the Northern Latitudes alongside vegetation, soil temperatures and wetlands, it is apparent that the main cause of high values of soil carbon is the presence of saturated soils (wetlands). This link can only be modelled if the wetlands are assumed to completely suppress soil respiration. It is important to be able to model wetlands and their effect on soil carbon if we are to understand the long term future of the soil-carbon store in Northern Latitudes.
M. Réjou-Méchain, H. C. Muller-Landau, M. Detto, S. C. Thomas, T. Le Toan, S. S. Saatchi, J. S. Barreto-Silva, N. A. Bourg, S. Bunyavejchewin, N. Butt, W. Y. Brockelman, M. Cao, D. Cárdenas, J.-M. Chiang, G. B. Chuyong, K. Clay, R. Condit, H. S. Dattaraja, S. J. Davies, A. Duque, S. Esufali, C. Ewango, R. H. S. Fernando, C. D. Fletcher, I. A. U. N. Gunatilleke, Z. Hao, K. E. Harms, T. B. Hart, B. Hérault, R. W. Howe, S. P. Hubbell, D. J. Johnson, D. Kenfack, A. J. Larson, L. Lin, Y. Lin, J. A. Lutz, J.-R. Makana, Y. Malhi, T. R. Marthews, R. W. McEwan, S. M. McMahon, W. J. McShea, R. Muscarella, A. Nathalang, N. S. M. Noor, C. J. Nytch, A. A. Oliveira, R. P. Phillips, N. Pongpattananurak, R. Punchi-Manage, R. Salim, J. Schurman, R. Sukumar, H. S. Suresh, U. Suwanvecho, D. W. Thomas, J. Thompson, M. Uríarte, R. Valencia, A. Vicentini, A. T. Wolf, S. Yap, Z. Yuan, C. E. Zartman, J. K. Zimmerman, and J. Chave
Biogeosciences, 11, 6827–6840, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6827-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6827-2014, 2014
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Forest carbon mapping may greatly reduce uncertainties in the global carbon budget. Accuracy of such maps depends however on the quality of field measurements. Using 30 large forest plots, we found large local spatial variability in biomass. When field calibration plots are smaller than the remote sensing pixels, this high local spatial variability results in an underestimation of the variance in biomass.
S. J. Sutanto, B. van den Hurk, P. A. Dirmeyer, S. I. Seneviratne, T. Röckmann, K. E. Trenberth, E. M. Blyth, J. Wenninger, and G. Hoffmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2815–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2815-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2815-2014, 2014
A. Megann, D. Storkey, Y. Aksenov, S. Alderson, D. Calvert, T. Graham, P. Hyder, J. Siddorn, and B. Sinha
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1069–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014, 2014
T. R. Marthews, C. A. Quesada, D. R. Galbraith, Y. Malhi, C. E. Mullins, M. G. Hodnett, and I. Dharssi
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 711–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-711-2014, 2014
D. N. Walters, K. D. Williams, I. A. Boutle, A. C. Bushell, J. M. Edwards, P. R. Field, A. P. Lock, C. J. Morcrette, R. A. Stratton, J. M. Wilkinson, M. R. Willett, N. Bellouin, A. Bodas-Salcedo, M. E. Brooks, D. Copsey, P. D. Earnshaw, S. C. Hardiman, C. M. Harris, R. C. Levine, C. MacLachlan, J. C. Manners, G. M. Martin, S. F. Milton, M. D. Palmer, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodríguez, W. J. Tennant, and P. L. Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 361–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-361-2014, 2014
Y. Artioli, J. C. Blackford, G. Nondal, R. G. J. Bellerby, S. L. Wakelin, J. T. Holt, M. Butenschön, and J. I. Allen
Biogeosciences, 11, 601–612, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-601-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-601-2014, 2014
J. Holt, C. Schrum, H. Cannaby, U. Daewel, I. Allen, Y. Artioli, L. Bopp, M. Butenschon, B. A. Fach, J. Harle, D. Pushpadas, B. Salihoglu, and S. Wakelin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
N. C. MacKellar, S. J. Dadson, M. New, and P. Wolski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11093-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11093-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
L. de Mora, M. Butenschön, and J. I. Allen
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 533–548, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-533-2013, 2013
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Comprehensive evaluation of typical planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in China – Part 2: Influence of uncertainty factors
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The effect of emission source chemical profiles on simulated PM2.5 components: sensitivity analysis with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.0.2
Comprehensive evaluation of typical planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in China – Part 1: Understanding expressiveness of schemes for different regions from the mechanism perspective
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Implementation of a satellite-based tool for the quantification of CH4 emissions over Europe (AUMIA v1.0) – Part 1: forward modelling evaluation against near-surface and satellite data
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Description and evaluation of the new UM–UKCA (vn11.0) Double Extended Stratospheric–Tropospheric (DEST vn1.0) scheme for comprehensive modelling of halogen chemistry in the stratosphere
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A standardized methodology for the validation of air quality forecast applications (F-MQO): lessons learnt from its application across Europe
Application of the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols version 0 (MUSICAv0) for air quality research in Africa
A Regional multi-Air Pollutant Assimilation System (RAPAS v1.0) for emission estimates: system development and application
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Emulating lateral gravity wave propagation in a global chemistry–climate model (EMAC v2.55.2) through horizontal flux redistribution
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Modelling concentration heterogeneities in streets using the street-network model MUNICH
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Breakups are complicated: an efficient representation of collisional breakup in the superdroplet method
Minjie Zheng, Hongyu Liu, Florian Adolphi, Raimund Muscheler, Zhengyao Lu, Mousong Wu, and Nønne L. Prisle
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7037–7057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7037-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7037-2023, 2023
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The radionuclides 7Be and 10Be are useful tracers for atmospheric transport studies. Here we use the GEOS-Chem to simulate 7Be and 10Be with different production rates: the default production rate in GEOS-Chem and two from the state-of-the-art beryllium production model. We demonstrate that reduced uncertainties in the production rates can enhance the utility of 7Be and 10Be as tracers for evaluating transport and scavenging processes in global models.
Wenxing Jia, Xiaoye Zhang, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Deying Wang, Junting Zhong, Wenjie Zhang, Lei Zhang, Lifeng Guo, Yadong Lei, Jizhi Wang, Yuanqin Yang, and Yi Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6833–6856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6833-2023, 2023
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In addition to the dominant role of the PBL scheme on the results of the meteorological field, many factors in the model are influenced by large uncertainties. This study focuses on the uncertainties that influence numerical simulation results (including horizontal resolution, vertical resolution, near-surface scheme, initial and boundary conditions, underlying surface update, and update of model version), hoping to provide a reference for scholars conducting research on the model.
Owen K. Hughes and Christiane Jablonowski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6805–6831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6805-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric models benefit from idealized tests that assess their accuracy in a simpler simulation. A new test with artificial mountains is developed for models on a spherical earth. The mountains trigger the development of both planetary-scale and small-scale waves. These can be analyzed in dry or moist environments, with a simple rainfall mechanism. Four atmospheric models are intercompared. This sheds light on the pros and cons of the model design and the impact of mountains on the flow.
Zhongwei Luo, Yan Han, Kun Hua, Yufen Zhang, Jianhui Wu, Xiaohui Bi, Qili Dai, Baoshuang Liu, Yang Chen, Xin Long, and Yinchang Feng
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6757–6771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6757-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6757-2023, 2023
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This study explores how the variation in the source profiles adopted in chemical transport models (CTMs) impacts the simulated results of chemical components in PM2.5 based on sensitivity analysis. The impact on PM2.5 components cannot be ignored, and its influence can be transmitted and linked between components. The representativeness and timeliness of the source profile should be paid adequate attention in air quality simulation.
Wenxing Jia, Xiaoye Zhang, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Deying Wang, Junting Zhong, Wenjie Zhang, Lei Zhang, Lifeng Guo, Yadong Lei, Jizhi Wang, Yuanqin Yang, and Yi Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6635–6670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6635-2023, 2023
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Most current studies on planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes are relatively fragmented and lack systematic in-depth analysis and discussion. In this study, we comprehensively evaluate the performance capability of the PBL scheme in five typical regions of China in different seasons from the mechanism of the scheme and the effects of PBL schemes on the near-surface meteorological parameters, vertical structures of the PBL, PBL height, and turbulent diffusion.
William Rudisill, Alejandro Flores, and Rosemary Carroll
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6531–6552, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6531-2023, 2023
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It is important to know how well atmospheric models do in mountains, but there are not very many weather stations. We evaluate rain and snow from a model from 1987–2020 in the Upper Colorado River basin against the available data. The model works rather well, but there are still some uncertainties in remote locations. We then use snow maps collected by aircraft, streamflow measurements, and some advanced statistics to help identify how well the model works in ways we could not do before.
Angel Liduvino Vara-Vela, Christoffer Karoff, Noelia Rojas Benavente, and Janaina P. Nascimento
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6413–6431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6413-2023, 2023
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A 1-year simulation of atmospheric CH4 over Europe is performed and evaluated against observations based on the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). A good general model–observation agreement is found, with discrepancies reaching their minimum and maximum values during the summer peak season and winter months, respectively. A huge and under-explored potential for CH4 inverse modeling using improved TROPOMI XCH4 data sets in large-scale applications is identified.
Zhaojun Tang, Zhe Jiang, Jiaqi Chen, Panpan Yang, and Yanan Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6377–6392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6377-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6377-2023, 2023
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We designed a new framework to facilitate emission inventory updates in the adjoint of GEOS-Chem model. It allows us to support Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) emission inventories conveniently and to easily add more emission inventories following future updates in GEOS-Chem forward simulations. Furthermore, we developed new modules to support MERRA-2 meteorological data; this allows us to perform long-term analysis with consistent meteorological data.
Rui Zhu, Zhaojun Tang, Xiaokang Chen, Xiong Liu, and Zhe Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6337–6354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6337-2023, 2023
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A single ozone (O3) tracer mode was developed in this work to build the capability of the GEOS-Chem model for rapid O3 simulation. It is combined with OMI and surface O3 observations to investigate the changes in tropospheric O3 in China in 2015–2020. The assimilations indicate rapid surface O3 increases that are underestimated by the a priori simulations. We find stronger increases in tropospheric O3 columns over polluted areas and a large discrepancy by assimilating different observations.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, N. Luke Abraham, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6187–6209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023, 2023
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Development and performance of the new DEST chemistry scheme of UM–UKCA is described. The scheme extends the standard StratTrop scheme by including important updates to the halogen chemistry, thus allowing process-oriented studies of stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, including impacts from both controlled long-lived ozone-depleting substances and emerging issues around uncontrolled, very short-lived substances. It will thus aid studies in support of future ozone assessment reports.
Shaohui Zhou, Chloe Yuchao Gao, Zexia Duan, Xingya Xi, and Yubin Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6247–6266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6247-2023, 2023
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The proposed wind speed correction model (VMD-PCA-RF) demonstrates the highest prediction accuracy and stability in the five southern provinces in nearly a year and at different heights. VMD-PCA-RF evaluation indices for 13 months remain relatively stable: the forecasting accuracy rate FA is above 85 %. In future research, the proposed VMD-PCA-RF algorithm can be extrapolated to the 3 km grid points of the five southern provinces to generate a 3 km grid-corrected wind speed product.
Simone Tilmes, Michael J. Mills, Yunqian Zhu, Charles G. Bardeen, Francis Vitt, Pengfei Yu, David Fillmore, Xiaohong Liu, Brian Toon, and Terry Deshler
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6087–6125, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6087-2023, 2023
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We implemented an alternative aerosol scheme in the high- and low-top model versions of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) with a more detailed description of tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol size distributions than the existing aerosol model. This development enables the comparison of different aerosol schemes with different complexity in the same model framework. It identifies improvements compared to a range of observations in both the troposphere and stratosphere.
Dien Wu, Joshua L. Laughner, Junjie Liu, Paul I. Palmer, John C. Lin, and Paul O. Wennberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6161–6185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6161-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6161-2023, 2023
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To balance computational expenses and chemical complexity in extracting emission signals from tropospheric NO2 columns, we propose a simplified non-linear Lagrangian chemistry transport model and assess its performance against TROPOMI v2 over power plants and cities. Using this model, we then discuss how NOx chemistry affects the relationship between NOx and CO2 emissions and how studying NO2 columns helps quantify modeled biases in wind directions and prior emissions.
Jiangshan Zhu and Ross Noel Bannister
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6067–6085, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6067-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6067-2023, 2023
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We describe how condensation and evaporation are included in the existing (otherwise dry) simplified ABC model. The new model (Hydro-ABC) includes transport of vapour and condensate within a dynamical core, and it transitions between these two phases via a micro-physics scheme. The model shows the development of an anvil cloud and excitation of atmospheric waves over many frequencies. The covariances that develop between variables are also studied together with indicators of convective motion.
Jiangyong Li, Chunlin Zhang, Wenlong Zhao, Shijie Han, Yu Wang, Hao Wang, and Boguang Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6049–6066, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6049-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6049-2023, 2023
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Photochemical box models, crucial for understanding tropospheric chemistry, face challenges due to slow computational efficiency with large chemical equations. The model introduced in this study, ROMAC, boosts efficiency by up to 96 % using an advanced atmospheric solver and an adaptive optimization algorithm. Moreover, ROMAC exceeds traditional box models in evaluating the impact of physical processes on pollutant concentrations.
Lina Vitali, Kees Cuvelier, Antonio Piersanti, Alexandra Monteiro, Mario Adani, Roberta Amorati, Agnieszka Bartocha, Alessandro D'Ausilio, Paweł Durka, Carla Gama, Giulia Giovannini, Stijn Janssen, Tomasz Przybyła, Michele Stortini, Stijn Vranckx, and Philippe Thunis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6029–6047, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6029-2023, 2023
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Air quality forecasting models play a key role in fostering short-term measures aimed at reducing human exposure to air pollution. Together with this role comes the need for a thorough assessment of the model performances to build confidence in models’ capabilities, in particular when model applications support policymaking. In this paper, we propose an evaluation methodology and test it on several domains across Europe, highlighting its strengths and room for improvement.
Wenfu Tang, Louisa K. Emmons, Helen M. Worden, Rajesh Kumar, Cenlin He, Benjamin Gaubert, Zhonghua Zheng, Simone Tilmes, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Sara-Eva Martinez-Alonso, Claire Granier, Antonin Soulie, Kathryn McKain, Bruce C. Daube, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea Thompson, and Pieternel Levelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6001–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6001-2023, 2023
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The new MUSICAv0 model enables the study of atmospheric chemistry across all relevant scales. We develop a MUSICAv0 grid for Africa. We evaluate MUSICAv0 with observations and compare it with a previously used model – WRF-Chem. Overall, the performance of MUSICAv0 is comparable to WRF-Chem. Based on model–satellite discrepancies, we find that future field campaigns in an eastern African region (30°E–45°E, 5°S–5°N) could substantially improve the predictive skill of air quality models.
Shuzhuang Feng, Fei Jiang, Zheng Wu, Hengmao Wang, Wei He, Yang Shen, Lingyu Zhang, Yanhua Zheng, Chenxi Lou, Ziqiang Jiang, and Weimin Ju
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5949–5977, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5949-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5949-2023, 2023
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We document the system development and application of a Regional multi-Air Pollutant Assimilation System (RAPAS v1.0). This system is developed to optimize gridded source emissions of CO, SO2, NOx, primary PM2.5, and coarse PM10 on a regional scale via simultaneously assimilating surface measurements of CO, SO2, NO2, PM2.5, and PM10. A series of sensitivity experiments demonstrates the advantage of the “two-step” inversion strategy and the robustness of the system in estimating the emissions.
Megan A. Stretton, William Morrison, Robin J. Hogan, and Sue Grimmond
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5931–5947, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5931-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5931-2023, 2023
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Cities' materials and forms impact radiative fluxes. We evaluate the SPARTACUS-Urban multi-layer approach to modelling longwave radiation, describing realistic 3D geometry statistically using the explicit DART (Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer) model. The temperature configurations used are derived from thermal camera observations. SPARTACUS-Urban accurately predicts longwave fluxes, with a low computational time (cf. DART), but has larger errors with sunlit/shaded surface temperatures.
Daehyeon Han, Jungho Im, Yeji Shin, and Juhyun Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5895–5914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5895-2023, 2023
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To identify the key factors affecting quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) using deep learning (DL), we carried out a comprehensive evaluation and analysis. We compared four key factors: DL model, length of the input sequence, loss function, and ensemble approach. Generally, U-Net outperformed ConvLSTM. Loss function and ensemble showed potential for improving performance when they synergized well. The length of the input sequence did not significantly affect the results.
Fabien Margairaz, Balwinder Singh, Jeremy A. Gibbs, Loren Atwood, Eric R. Pardyjak, and Rob Stoll
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5729–5754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5729-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5729-2023, 2023
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The Quick Environmental Simulation (QES) tool is a low-computational-cost fast-response framework. It provides high-resolution wind and concentration information to study complex problems, such as spore or smoke transport, urban pollution, and air quality. This paper presents the particle dispersion model and its validation against analytical solutions and wind-tunnel data for a mock-urban setting. In all cases, the model provides accurate results with competitive computational performance.
Tao Wang, Hang Liu, Jie Li, Shuai Wang, Youngseob Kim, Yele Sun, Wenyi Yang, Huiyun Du, Zhe Wang, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5585–5599, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5585-2023, 2023
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This paper developed a two-way coupled module in a new version of a regional urban–street network model, IAQMS-street v2.0, in which the mass flux from streets to background is considered. Test cases are defined to evaluate the performance of IAQMS-street v2.0 in Beijing by comparing it with that simulated by IAQMS-street v1.0 and a regional model. The contribution of local emissions and the influence of on-road vehicle control measures on air quality are evaluated by using IAQMS-street v2.0.
Denis E. Sergeev, Nathan J. Mayne, Thomas Bendall, Ian A. Boutle, Alex Brown, Iva Kavčič, James Kent, Krisztian Kohary, James Manners, Thomas Melvin, Enrico Olivier, Lokesh K. Ragta, Ben Shipway, Jon Wakelin, Nigel Wood, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5601–5626, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5601-2023, 2023
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Three-dimensional climate models are one of the best tools we have to study planetary atmospheres. Here, we apply LFRic-Atmosphere, a new model developed by the Met Office, to seven different scenarios for terrestrial planetary climates, including four for the exoplanet TRAPPIST-1e, a primary target for future observations. LFRic-Atmosphere reproduces these scenarios within the spread of the existing models across a range of key climatic variables, justifying its use in future exoplanet studies.
Roland Eichinger, Sebastian Rhode, Hella Garny, Peter Preusse, Petr Pisoft, Aleš Kuchař, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, and Bastian Kern
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5561–5583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5561-2023, 2023
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The columnar approach of gravity wave (GW) schemes results in dynamical model biases, but parallel decomposition makes horizontal GW propagation computationally unfeasible. In the global model EMAC, we approximate it by GW redistribution at one altitude using tailor-made redistribution maps generated with a ray tracer. More spread-out GW drag helps reconcile the model with observations and close the 60°S GW gap. Polar vortex dynamics are improved, enhancing climate model credibility.
Xueying Liu, Yuxuan Wang, Shailaja Wasti, Wei Li, Ehsan Soleimanian, James Flynn, Travis Griggs, Sergio Alvarez, John T. Sullivan, Maurice Roots, Laurence Twigg, Guillaume Gronoff, Timothy Berkoff, Paul Walter, Mark Estes, Johnathan W. Hair, Taylor Shingler, Amy Jo Scarino, Marta Fenn, and Laura Judd
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5493–5514, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5493-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5493-2023, 2023
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With a comprehensive suite of ground-based and airborne remote sensing measurements during the 2021 TRacking Aerosol Convection ExpeRiment – Air Quality (TRACER-AQ) campaign in Houston, this study evaluates the simulation of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and the ozone vertical profile by a high-resolution (1.33 km) 3-D photochemical model Weather Research and Forecasting-driven GEOS-Chem (WRF-GC).
Stijn Van Leuven, Pieter De Meutter, Johan Camps, Piet Termonia, and Andy Delcloo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5323–5338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5323-2023, 2023
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Precipitation collects airborne particles and deposits these on the ground. This process is called wet deposition and greatly determines how airborne radioactive particles (released routinely or accidentally) contaminate the surface. In this work we present a new method to improve the calculation of wet deposition in computer models. We apply this method to the existing model FLEXPART by simulating the Fukushima nuclear accident (2011) and show that it improves the simulation of wet deposition.
Thibaud Sarica, Alice Maison, Yelva Roustan, Matthias Ketzel, Steen Solvang Jensen, Youngseob Kim, Christophe Chaillou, and Karine Sartelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5281–5303, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5281-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5281-2023, 2023
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A new version of the Model of Urban Network of Intersecting Canyons and Highways (MUNICH) is developed to represent heterogeneities of concentrations in streets. The street volume is discretized vertically and horizontally to limit the artificial dilution of emissions and concentrations. This new version is applied to street networks in Copenhagen and Paris. The comparisons to observations are improved, with higher concentrations of pollutants emitted by traffic at the bottom of the street.
Junsu Gil, Meehye Lee, Jeonghwan Kim, Gangwoong Lee, Joonyoung Ahn, and Cheol-Hee Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5251–5263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5251-2023, 2023
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In this study, the framework for calculating reactive nitrogen species using a deep neural network (RND) was developed. It works through simple Python codes and provides high-accuracy reactive nitrogen oxide data. In the first version (RNDv1.0), the model calculates the nitrous acid (HONO) in urban areas, which has an important role in producing O3 and fine aerosol.
Daniel Yazgi and Tinja Olenius
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5237–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5237-2023, 2023
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We present flexible tools to implement aerosol formation rate predictions in climate and chemical transport models. New-particle formation is a significant but uncertain factor affecting aerosol numbers and an active field within molecular modeling which provides data for assessing formation rates for different chemical species. We introduce tools to generate and interpolate formation rate lookup tables for user-defined data, thus enabling the easy inclusion and testing of formation schemes.
Vineet Yadav, Subhomoy Ghosh, and Charles E. Miller
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5219–5236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5219-2023, 2023
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Measuring the performance of inversions in linear Bayesian problems is crucial in real-life applications. In this work, we provide analytical forms of the local and global sensitivities of the estimated fluxes with respect to various inputs. We provide methods to uniquely map the observational signal to spatiotemporal domains. Utilizing this, we also show techniques to assess correlations between the Jacobians that naturally translate to nonstationary covariance matrix components.
Mingzhao Liu, Lars Hoffmann, Sabine Griessbach, Zhongyin Cai, Yi Heng, and Xue Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5197-2023, 2023
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We introduce new and revised chemistry and physics modules in the Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC) Lagrangian transport model aiming to improve the representation of volcanic SO2 transport and depletion. We test these modules in a case study of the Ambae eruption in July 2018 in which the SO2 plume underwent wet removal and convection. The lifetime of SO2 shows highly variable and complex dependencies on the atmospheric conditions at different release heights.
Bernhard M. Enz, Jan P. Engelmann, and Ulrike Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5093–5112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5093-2023, 2023
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An algorithm to track tropical cyclones in model simulation data has been developed. The algorithm uses many combinations of varying parameter thresholds to detect weaker phases of tropical cyclones while still being resilient to false positives. It is shown that the algorithm performs well and adequately represents the tropical cyclone activity of the underlying simulation data. The impact of false positives on overall tropical cyclone activity is shown to be insignificant.
Sepehr Fathi, Mark Gordon, and Yongsheng Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5069–5091, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5069-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5069-2023, 2023
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We have combined various capabilities within a WRF model to generate simulations of atmospheric pollutant dispersion at 50 m resolution. The study objective was to resolve transport processes at the scale of measurements to assess and optimize aircraft-based emission rate retrievals. Model performance evaluation resulted in agreement within 5 % of observed meteorological and within 1–2 standard deviations of observed wind fields. Mass was conserved in the model within 5 % of input emissions.
Dylan Reynolds, Ethan Gutmann, Bert Kruyt, Michael Haugeneder, Tobias Jonas, Franziska Gerber, Michael Lehning, and Rebecca Mott
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5049–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5049-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5049-2023, 2023
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The challenge of running geophysical models is often compounded by the question of where to obtain appropriate data to give as input to a model. Here we present the HICAR model, a simplified atmospheric model capable of running at spatial resolutions of hectometers for long time series or over large domains. This makes physically consistent atmospheric data available at the spatial and temporal scales needed for some terrestrial modeling applications, for example seasonal snow forecasting.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Bufan Xu, Wei Han, Mijie Pang, and Hai Xiang Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4867–4882, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4867-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4867-2023, 2023
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Machine learning models have gained great popularity in air quality prediction. However, they are only available at air quality monitoring stations. In contrast, chemical transport models (CTM) provide predictions that are continuous in the 3D field. Owing to complex error sources, they are typically biased. In this study, we proposed a gridded prediction with high accuracy by fusing predictions from our regional feature selection machine learning prediction (RFSML v1.0) and a CTM prediction.
Willem Elias van Caspel, David Simpson, Jan Eiof Jonson, Anna Maria Katarina Benedictow, Yao Ge, Alcide di Sarra, Giandomenico Pace, Massimo Vieno, Hannah Walker, and Mathew Heal
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-147, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Radiation coming from the sun is essential to atmospheric chemistry, driving the break-up, or photo-dissociation, of atmospheric molecules. This in turn affects the chemical composition and reactivity of the atmosphere. The representation of these photo-dissociation effects is therefore essential in atmospheric chemistry modeling. One such models is the EMEP MSC-W model, for which in this paper a new way of calculating the photo-dissociation rates is tested and evaluated.
Manu Goudar, Juliëtte C. S. Anema, Rajesh Kumar, Tobias Borsdorff, and Jochen Landgraf
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4835–4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4835-2023, 2023
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A framework was developed to automatically detect plumes and compute emission estimates with cross-sectional flux method (CFM) for biomass burning events in TROPOMI CO datasets using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data. The emissions were more reliable when changing plume height in downwind direction was used instead of constant injection height. The CFM had uncertainty even when the meteorological conditions were accurate; thus there is a need for better inversion models.
Drew C. Pendergrass, Daniel J. Jacob, Hannah Nesser, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Kevin W. Bowman
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4793–4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4793-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4793-2023, 2023
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We have built a tool called CHEEREIO that allows scientists to use observations of pollutants or gases in the atmosphere, such as from satellites or surface stations, to update supercomputer models that simulate the Earth. CHEEREIO uses the difference between the model simulations of the atmosphere and real-world observations to come up with a good guess for the actual composition of our atmosphere, the true emissions of various pollutants, and whatever else they may want to study.
Yosuke Yamazaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4749–4766, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4749-2023, 2023
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The Earth's atmosphere can support various types of global-scale waves. Some waves propagate eastward and others westward, and they can have different zonal wavenumbers. The Fourier–wavelet analysis is a useful technique for identifying different components of global-scale waves and their temporal variability. This paper introduces an easy-to-implement method to derive Fourier–wavelet spectra from 2-D space–time data. Application examples are presented using atmospheric models.
Bok H. Baek, Carlie Coats, Siqi Ma, Chi-Tsan Wang, Yunyao Li, Jia Xing, Daniel Tong, Soontae Kim, and Jung-Hun Woo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4659–4676, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4659-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4659-2023, 2023
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To enable the direct feedback effects of aerosols and local meteorology in an air quality modeling system without any computational bottleneck, we have developed an inline meteorology-induced emissions coupler module within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to dynamically model the complex MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) on-road mobile emissions inline without a separate dedicated emissions processing model like SMOKE.
Christoph Neuhauser, Maicon Hieronymus, Michael Kern, Marc Rautenhaus, Annika Oertel, and Rüdiger Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4617–4638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4617-2023, 2023
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Numerical weather prediction models rely on parameterizations for sub-grid-scale processes, which are a source of uncertainty. We present novel visual analytics solutions to analyze interactively the sensitivities of a selected prognostic variable to multiple model parameters along trajectories regarding similarities in temporal development and spatiotemporal relationships. The proposed workflow is applied to cloud microphysical sensitivities along coherent strongly ascending trajectories.
Liangke Huang, Shengwei Lan, Ge Zhu, Fade Chen, Junyu Li, and Lilong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-139, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The existing ZTD models have limitations such as using a single fitting function, neglecting daily cycle variations, and relying on only one resolution grid data for modeling. This model considers the daily-cycle variation and latitude factor of ZTD, using the sliding window algorithm based on ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data. The ZTD data from 545 radiosonde stations and MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalysis data are used to validate the accuracy of the GGZTD-P model.
Yingqi Zheng, Minttu Havu, Huizhi Liu, Xueling Cheng, Yifan Wen, Hei Shing Lee, Joyson Ahongshangbam, and Leena Järvi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4551–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4551-2023, 2023
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The performance of the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is evaluated against the observed surface exchanges (fluxes) of heat and carbon dioxide in a densely built neighborhood in Beijing. The heat flux modeling is noticeably improved by using the observed maximum conductance and by optimizing the vegetation phenology modeling. SUEWS also performs well in simulating carbon dioxide flux.
Marie-Adèle Magnaldo, Quentin Libois, Sébastien Riette, and Christine Lac
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1181, 2023
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With the worlwide development of the solar energy sector, the need for reliable solar radiation forecasts has significantly increased. However meteorological models that predict among others things solar radiation, have errors. Therefore, we so wanted to know in which situtaions these errors are most significant. We found that errors mostly occurs in cloudy situations, and different errors were highlighted depending of the cloud altitude. Several potential sources of errors were identified.
Simone Dietmüller, Sigrun Matthes, Katrin Dahlmann, Hiroshi Yamashita, Abolfazl Simorgh, Manuel Soler, Florian Linke, Benjamin Lührs, Maximilian M. Meuser, Christian Weder, Volker Grewe, Feijia Yin, and Federica Castino
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4405–4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4405-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4405-2023, 2023
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Climate-optimized aircraft trajectories avoid atmospheric regions with a large climate impact due to aviation emissions. This requires spatially and temporally resolved information on aviation's climate impact. We propose using algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) for CO2 and non-CO2 effects (ozone, methane, water vapor, contrail cirrus). Merged aCCFs combine individual aCCFs by assuming aircraft-specific parameters and climate metrics. Technically this is done with a Python library.
Andreas A. Beckert, Lea Eisenstein, Annika Oertel, Tim Hewson, George C. Craig, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4427–4450, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4427-2023, 2023
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We investigate the benefit of objective 3-D front detection with modern interactive visual analysis techniques for case studies of extra-tropical cyclones and comparisons of frontal structures between different numerical weather prediction models. The 3-D frontal structures show agreement with 2-D fronts from surface analysis charts and augment them in the vertical dimension. We see great potential for more complex studies of atmospheric dynamics and for operational weather forecasting.
Zhenxin Liu, Yuanhao Chen, Yuhang Wang, Cheng Liu, Shuhua Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4385–4403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4385-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4385-2023, 2023
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The heterogeneous layout of urban buildings leads to the complex wind field in and over the urban canopy. Large discrepancies between the observations and the current simulations result from misunderstanding the character of the wind field. The Inhomogeneous Wind Scheme in Urban Street (IWSUS) was developed to simulate the heterogeneity of the wind speed in a typical street and then improve the simulated energy budget in the lower atmospheric layer over the urban canopy.
Kai Cao, Qizhong Wu, Lingling Wang, Nan Wang, Huaqiong Cheng, Xiao Tang, Dongqing Li, and Lanning Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4367–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4367-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4367-2023, 2023
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Offline performance experiment results show that the GPU-HADVPPM on a V100 GPU can achieve up to 1113.6 × speedups to its original version on an E5-2682 v4 CPU. A series of optimization measures are taken, and the CAMx-CUDA model improves the computing efficiency by 128.4 × on a single V100 GPU card. A parallel architecture with an MPI plus CUDA hybrid paradigm is presented, and it can achieve up to 4.5 × speedup when launching eight CPU cores and eight GPU cards.
Laurent Menut
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4265–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023, 2023
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This study analyzes forecasts that were made in 2021 to help trigger measurements during the CADDIWA experiment. The WRF and CHIMERE models were run each day, and the first goal is to quantify the variability of the forecast as a function of forecast leads and forecast location. The possibility of using the different leads as an ensemble is also tested. For some locations, the correlation scores are better with this approach. This could be tested on operational forecast chains in the future.
Emily de Jong, John Ben Mackay, Oleksii Bulenok, Anna Jaruga, and Sylwester Arabas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4193–4211, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4193-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4193-2023, 2023
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In clouds, collisional breakup occurs when two colliding droplets splinter into new, smaller fragments. Particle-based modeling approaches often do not represent breakup because of the computational demands of creating new droplets. We present a particle-based breakup method that preserves the computational efficiency of these methods. In a series of simple demonstrations, we show that this representation alters cloud processes in reasonable and expected ways.
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Short summary
In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet prediction systems tend to treat them in isolation. Those feedbacks are often illustrated in natural hazards, such as when strong winds lead to large waves and coastal damage, or when prolonged rainfall leads to saturated ground and high flowing rivers. For the first time, we have attempted to represent some of the feedbacks between sky, sea and land within a high-resolution forecast system for the UK.
In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet...
