Articles | Volume 9, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2357-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2357-2016
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
07 Jul 2016
Methods for assessment of models |  | 07 Jul 2016

Constraining the strength of the terrestrial CO2 fertilization effect in the Canadian Earth system model version 4.2 (CanESM4.2)

Vivek K. Arora and John F. Scinocca

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The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback
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Cited articles

Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: A parameterization of leaf phenology for the terrestrial ecosystem component of climate models, Glob. Change Biol., 11, 39–59, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00890.x, 2005.
Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change, Glob. Change Biol., 16, 3327–3348, 2010.
Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Terrestrial ecosystems response to future changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration, Biogeosciences, 11, 4157–4171, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4157-2014, 2014.
Arora, V. K., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Curry, C. L., Denman, K. L., Zahariev, K., Flato, G. M., Scinocca, J. F., Merryfield, W. J., and Lee, W. G.: The effect of terrestrial photosynthesis down-regulation on the 20th century carbon budget simulated with the CCCma Earth System Model, J. Climate, 22, 6066–6088, 2009.
Arora, V. K., Scinocca, J. F., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L., Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V., Lee, W. G., and Merryfield, W. J.: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046270, 2011.
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Short summary
This paper uses observed features of the global carbon cycle to constrain how much carbon the land should take up in an Earth system model in response to increasing fossil fuel CO2 emissions since the start of the industrial era. These models are the only tool available to us for projecting future climate change. Despite their uncertainties, if current observations can be used to constrain models then more confidence can be places in models' future climate change projections.