Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
22 Jan 2025
Methods for assessment of models |  | 22 Jan 2025

Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts

Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust

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Cited articles

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Borchert, L. F., Düsterhus, A., Brune, S., Müller, W. A., and Baehr, J.: Forecast-Oriented Assessment of Decadal Hindcast Skill for North Atlantic SST, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 11444–11454, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084758, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
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Short summary
The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
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