Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
22 Jan 2025
Methods for assessment of models |  | 22 Jan 2025

Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts

Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust

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Latest update: 24 Oct 2025
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Short summary
The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
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