Articles | Volume 17, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
21 Nov 2024
Development and technical paper |
| 21 Nov 2024
| 21 Nov 2024
Evaluating an accelerated forcing approach for improving computational efficiency in coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling
Akvaplan-niva AS, Tromsø, Norway
Chen Zhao
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Rupert Gladstone
Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland
Tore Hattermann
Research Department, Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway
Complex Systems Modelling Group, Department of Physics and Technology, The Arctic University – University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway
David Gwyther
Coastal and Regional Oceanography Lab, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Benjamin Galton-Fenzi
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Australia
The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
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ISOMIP+ compares 12 ocean models that simulate ice-ocean interactions in a common, idealised, static ice shelf cavity setup, aiming to assess and understand inter-model variability. Models simulate similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties and spatial distributions of melting. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
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Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and hence its contribution to sea level rise, is highly sensitive to melting of its floating ice shelves. This melt is caused by warm ocean currents coming into contact with the ice. Computer models used for future ice sheet projections are not able to realistically evolve these melt rates. We describe a new coupling framework to enable ice sheet and ocean computer models to interact, allowing projection of the evolution of melt and its impact on sea level.
Lawrence A. Bird, Vitaliy Ogarko, Laurent Ailleres, Lachlan Grose, Jérémie Giraud, Felicity S. McCormack, David E. Gwyther, Jason L. Roberts, Richard S. Jones, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
The Cryosphere, 19, 3355–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3355-2025, 2025
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The Cryosphere, 19, 2837–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, 2025
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Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
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Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Helene L. Seroussi, and Ralph Timmermann
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Melting beneath Antarctica’s floating ice shelves is key to future sea-level rise. We compare several different ocean simulations with satellite measurements, and provide the first multi-model average estimate of melting and refreezing driven by both ocean temperature and currents beneath ice shelves. The multi-model average can provide a useful tool for better understanding the role of ice shelf melting in present-day and future ice-sheet changes and informing coastal adaptation efforts.
Fabio Boeira Dias, Matthew H. England, Adele K. Morrison, and Benjamin Galton-Fenzi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3905, 2025
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Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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Julius Lauber, Tore Hattermann, Laura de Steur, Elin Darelius, and Agneta Fransson
Ocean Sci., 20, 1585–1610, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1585-2024, 2024
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Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1102, 2024
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Totten Glacier in Antarctica holds a sea level potential of 3.85 m. Basal sliding and sub-shelf melt rate have important impact on ice sheet dynamics. We simulate the evolution of Totten Glacier using an ice flow model with different basal sliding parameterizations as well as sub-shelf melt rates to quantify their effect on the projections. We found the modelled glacier retreat and mass loss is sensitive to the choice of basal sliding parameterizations and maximal sub-shelf melt rate.
Colette Gabrielle Kerry, Moninya Roughan, Shane Keating, David Gwyther, Gary Brassington, Adil Siripatana, and Joao Marcos A. C. Souza
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2359–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2359-2024, 2024
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Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
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Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
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Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Felicity S. McCormack, Jason L. Roberts, Bernd Kulessa, Alan Aitken, Christine F. Dow, Lawrence Bird, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Katharina Hochmuth, Richard S. Jones, Andrew N. Mackintosh, and Koi McArthur
The Cryosphere, 17, 4549–4569, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4549-2023, 2023
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Changes in Antarctic surface elevation can cause changes in ice and basal water flow, impacting how much ice enters the ocean. We find that ice and basal water flow could divert from the Totten to the Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica, under only small changes in the surface elevation, with implications for estimates of ice loss from this region. Further studies are needed to determine when this could occur and if similar diversions could occur elsewhere in Antarctica due to climate change.
David E. Gwyther, Shane R. Keating, Colette Kerry, and Moninya Roughan
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 157–178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-157-2023, 2023
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Ocean eddies are important for weather, climate, biology, navigation, and search and rescue. Since eddies change rapidly, models that incorporate or assimilate observations are required to produce accurate eddy timings and locations, yet the model accuracy is rarely assessed below the surface. We use a unique type of ocean model experiment to assess three-dimensional eddy structure in the East Australian Current and explore two pathways in which this subsurface structure is being degraded.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
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Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
David E. Gwyther, Colette Kerry, Moninya Roughan, and Shane R. Keating
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6541–6565, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6541-2022, 2022
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The ocean current flowing along the southeastern coast of Australia is called the East Australian Current (EAC). Using computer simulations, we tested how surface and subsurface observations might improve models of the EAC. Subsurface observations are particularly important for improving simulations, and if made in the correct location and time, can have impact 600 km upstream. The stability of the current affects model estimates could be capitalized upon in future observing strategies.
Madelaine Rosevear, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, and Craig Stevens
Ocean Sci., 18, 1109–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1109-2022, 2022
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Understanding ocean-driven melting of Antarctic ice shelves is critical for predicting future sea level. However, ocean observations from beneath ice shelves are scarce. Here, we present unique ocean and melting data from the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica. We use our observations to evaluate common methods of representing melting in ocean–climate models (melting
parameterisations) and show that these parameterisations overestimate melting when the ocean is warm and/or currents are weak.
Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, and Tore Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5421–5439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, 2022
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We use a coupled ice–ocean model to explore an oscillation feature found in several contributing models to MISOMIP1. The oscillation is closely related to the discretized grounding line retreat and likely strengthened by the buoyancy–melt feedback and/or melt–geometry feedback near the grounding line, and frequent ice–ocean coupling. Our model choices have a non-trivial impact on mean melt and ocean circulation strength, which might be interesting for the coupled ice–ocean community.
Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Jan A. Åström, Anna J. Crawford, Stephen L. Cornford, Suzanne L. Bevan, Thomas Zwinger, Rupert Gladstone, Karen Alley, Erin Pettit, and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2545–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, 2022
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Thwaites Glacier (TG), in West Antarctica, is potentially unstable and may contribute significantly to sea-level rise as global warming continues. Using satellite data, we show that Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, the largest remaining floating extension of TG, has started to accelerate as it fragments along a shear zone. Computer modelling does not indicate that fragmentation will lead to imminent glacier collapse, but it is clear that major, rapid, and unpredictable changes are underway.
Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Matt A. King, and Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
The Cryosphere, 16, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, 2022
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Tidal currents may play an important role in Antarctic ice sheet retreat by changing the rate at which the ocean melts glaciers. Here, using a computational ocean model, we derive the first estimate of present-day tidal melting that covers all of Antarctica. Our results suggest that large-scale ocean models aiming to accurately predict ice melt rates will need to account for the effects of tides. The inclusion of tide-induced friction at the ice–ocean interface should be prioritized.
Tian R. Tian, Alexander D. Fraser, Noriaki Kimura, Chen Zhao, and Petra Heil
The Cryosphere, 16, 1299–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1299-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1299-2022, 2022
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This study presents a comprehensive validation of a satellite observational sea ice motion product in Antarctica by using drifting buoys. Two problems existing in this sea ice motion product have been noticed. After rectifying problems, we use it to investigate the impacts of satellite observational configuration and timescale on Antarctic sea ice kinematics and suggest the future improvement of satellite missions specifically designed for retrieval of sea ice motion.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Ben Galton-Fenzi, and Roland Warner
The Cryosphere, 16, 1221–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, 2022
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The thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf and its spatial pattern are evaluated and analysed through temperature observations from six boreholes and numerical simulations. The simulations demonstrate significant ice warming downstream along the ice flow and a great variation of the thermal structure across the ice flow. We suggest that the thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf is unlikely to be affected by current climate changes on decadal timescales.
Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 617–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022, 2022
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Here we present an improved model of the Antarctic continental shelf ocean and demonstrate that it is capable of reproducing present-day conditions. The improvements are fundamental and regard the inclusion of tides and ocean eddies. We conclude that the model is well suited to gain new insights into processes that are important for Antarctic ice sheet retreat and global ocean changes. Hence, the model will ultimately help to improve projections of sea level rise and climate change.
Coen Hofstede, Sebastian Beyer, Hugh Corr, Olaf Eisen, Tore Hattermann, Veit Helm, Niklas Neckel, Emma C. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Ole Zeising, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 15, 1517–1535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1517-2021, 2021
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Support Force Glacier rapidly flows into Filcher Ice Shelf of Antarctica. As we know little about this glacier and its subglacial drainage, we used seismic energy to map the transition area from grounded to floating ice where a drainage channel enters the ocean cavity. Soft sediments close to the grounding line are probably transported by this drainage channel. The constant ice thickness over the steeply dipping seabed of the ocean cavity suggests a stable transition and little basal melting.
Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, Chen Zhao, Lenneke Jong, Yuwei Xia, Xiaoran Guo, Konstantinos Petrakopoulos, Thomas Zwinger, Daniel Shapero, and John Moore
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 889–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, 2021
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Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and hence its contribution to sea level rise, is highly sensitive to melting of its floating ice shelves. This melt is caused by warm ocean currents coming into contact with the ice. Computer models used for future ice sheet projections are not able to realistically evolve these melt rates. We describe a new coupling framework to enable ice sheet and ocean computer models to interact, allowing projection of the evolution of melt and its impact on sea level.
Claudia Wekerle, Tore Hattermann, Qiang Wang, Laura Crews, Wilken-Jon von Appen, and Sergey Danilov
Ocean Sci., 16, 1225–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1225-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1225-2020, 2020
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The high-resolution ocean models ROMS and FESOM configured for the Fram Strait reveal very energetic ocean conditions there. The two main currents meander strongly and shed circular currents of water, called eddies. Our analysis shows that this region is characterised by small and short-lived eddies (on average around a 5 km radius and 10 d lifetime). Both models agree on eddy properties and show similar patterns of baroclinic and barotropic instability of the West Spitsbergen Current.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Tore Hattermann, Fiammetta Straneo, Hélène Seroussi, Christopher M. Little, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, 2020
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To predict the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise, we need to use ice sheet models. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for AR6 (ISMIP6) builds an ensemble of ice sheet projections constrained by atmosphere and ocean projections from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In this work, we present and assess a method to derive ice shelf basal melting in ISMIP6 from the CMIP6 ocean outputs, and we give examples of projected melt rates.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Cited articles
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Short summary
We introduce an accelerated forcing approach to address timescale discrepancies between the ice sheets and ocean components in coupled modelling by reducing the ocean simulation duration. The approach is evaluated using idealized coupled models, and its limitations in real-world applications are discussed. Our results suggest it can be a valuable tool for process-oriented coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling and downscaling climate simulations with such models.
We introduce an accelerated forcing approach to address timescale discrepancies between the ice...
