Articles | Volume 16, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023
Model description paper
 | 
12 Dec 2023
Model description paper |  | 12 Dec 2023

The statistical emulators of GGCMI phase 2: responses of year-to-year variation of crop yield to CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations

Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, James A. Franke, Haynes Stephens, and Shuo Chen

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Cited articles

Blanc, É.: Statistical emulators of maize, rice, soybean and wheat yields from global gridded crop models, Agr. For. Meteorol., 236, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.12.022, 2017. 
Blanc, É.: Statistical emulators of irrigated crop yields and irrigation water requirements, Agr. For. Meteorol., 284, 107828, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107828, 2020. 
Blanc, E. and Sultan, B.: Emulating maize yields from global gridded crop models using statistical estimates, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 214–215, 134–147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.08.256, 2015. 
Campbell, B. M., Vermeulen, S. J., Girvetz, E., Loboguerrero, A. M., and Ramirez-Villegas, J.: Reducing risks to food security from climate change, Glob. Food Secur.-AGR., 11, 34–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2016.06.002, 2016. 
Chen, S., Liu, W., Feng, P., Ye, T., Ma, Y., and Zhang, Z.: Improving Spatial Disaggregation of Crop Yield by Incorporating Machine Learning with Multisource Data: A Case Study of Chinese Maize Yield, Remote Sens.-Basel, 14, 2340, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14102340, 2022. 
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Short summary
We develop a machine-learning-based crop model emulator with the inputs and outputs of multiple global gridded crop model ensemble simulations to capture the year-to-year variation of crop yield under future climate change. The emulator can reproduce the year-to-year variation of simulated yield given by the crop models under CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations. Developing this emulator can provide a tool to project future climate change impact in a simple way.
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