Articles | Volume 16, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
04 Apr 2023
Methods for assessment of models |
| 04 Apr 2023
| 04 Apr 2023
Nudging allows direct evaluation of coupled climate models with in situ observations: a case study from the MOSAiC expedition
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven/Potsdam, Germany
Marylou Athanase
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven/Potsdam, Germany
Sandro Dahlke
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven/Potsdam, Germany
Antonio Sánchez-Benítez
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven/Potsdam, Germany
Matthew D. Shupe
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Physical Science Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
Anne Sledd
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Physical Science Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
Jan Streffing
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven/Potsdam, Germany
Department of Mathematics and Logistics, Jacobs University Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Gunilla Svensson
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Thomas Jung
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven/Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
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Felix Pithan, Ann Kristin Naumann, and Marion Maturilli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3269–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3269-2025, 2025
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Representing the exchange of air masses between the Arctic and mid-latitudes and the associated cloud formation is difficult for climate models. We compare climate model output to temperature and humidity measurements from weather balloons to provide suggestions for model improvements. Cold biases mostly occur in air that is exported from the Arctic. Models that compute the number of ice particles in a cloud better represent humidity than models that assume a fixed number of ice particles.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2062, 2025
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Albert Ansmann, Cristofer Jimenez, Johanna Roschke, Johannes Bühl, Kevin Ohneiser, Ronny Engelmann, Martin Radenz, Hannes Griesche, Julian Hofer, Dietrich Althausen, Daniel A. Knopf, Sandro Dahlke, Tom Gaudek, Patric Seifert, and Ulla Wandinger
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Christopher J. Cox, Janet M. Intrieri, Brian J. Butterworth, Gijs de Boer, Michael R. Gallagher, Jonathan Hamilton, Erik Hulm, Tilden Meyers, Sara M. Morris, Jackson Osborn, P. Ola G. Persson, Benjamin Schmatz, Matthew D. Shupe, and James M. Wilczak
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1481–1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1481-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1481-2025, 2025
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Understanding how clouds affect the climate, especially in the Arctic, is crucial. This study used data from the largest polar expedition in history, MOSAiC, and the CERES satellite to analyse the impact of clouds on radiation. Simulations showed accurate results, aligning with observations. Over the year, clouds caused the atmospheric surface system to lose 5.2 W m−² of radiative energy to space, while the surface gained 25 W m−² and the atmosphere cooled by 30.2 W m−².
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Representing the exchange of air masses between the Arctic and mid-latitudes and the associated cloud formation is difficult for climate models. We compare climate model output to temperature and humidity measurements from weather balloons to provide suggestions for model improvements. Cold biases mostly occur in air that is exported from the Arctic. Models that compute the number of ice particles in a cloud better represent humidity than models that assume a fixed number of ice particles.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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The first comprehensive dataset of tropospheric ozone over oceans/polar regions is presented, including 77 ship/buoy and 48 aircraft campaign observations (1977–2022, 0–5000 m altitude), supplemented by ozonesonde and surface data. Air masses isolated from land for 72+ hours are systematically selected as essentially oceanic. Among the 11 global regions, they show daytime decreases of 10–16% in the tropics, while near-zero depletions are rare, unlike in the Arctic, implying different mechanisms.
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The fate of freshwater from Arctic sea ice and snowmelt impacts interactions of the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. We complete a comprehensive analysis of datasets from a 2020 central Arctic field campaign to understand the drivers of the sea ice freshwater budget and the fate of this water. Over half of the freshwater comes from surface melt, and a majority fraction is incorporated into the ocean. Results suggest that the representation of melt ponds is a key area for future development.
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
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Our study examines potential changes in heatwaves in central Europe due to global warming, using the 2019 summer heatwave as an example. By producing high-resolution storylines, we provide insights into how future heatwaves might spread, how they might persist for longer, and where stronger or weaker temperature increases may occur. This research helps us understand regional thermodynamic responses and highlights the importance of local strategies to protect communities from future heat events.
Michail Karalis, Gunilla Svensson, Manfred Wendisch, and Michael Tjernström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3709, 2025
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During the spring Arctic warm-air intrusion captured by HALO-(𝒜𝒞)3, the airmass demonstrated a column-like structure. We built a Lagrangian modeling framework using a single-column model (AOSCM) to simulate the airmass transformation. Comparing to observations, reanalysis and forecast data, we found that the AOSCM can successfully reproduce the main features of the transformation. The framework can be used for future model development to improve Arctic weather and climate prediction.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
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Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Kerstin Ebell, Christian Buhren, Rosa Gierens, Giovanni Chellini, Melanie Lauer, Andreas Walbröl, Sandro Dahlke, Pavel Krobot, and Mario Mech
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Johanna Tjernström, Michael Gallagher, Jareth Holt, Gunilla Svensson, Matthew D. Shupe, Jonathan J. Day, Lara Ferrighi, Siri Jodha Khalsa, Leslie M. Hartten, Ewan O'Connor, Zen Mariani, and Øystein Godøy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2088, 2024
Preprint archived
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The value of numerical weather predictions can be enhanced in several ways, one is to improve the representations of small-scale processes in models. To understand what needs to be improved, the model results need to be evaluated. Following standardized principles, a file format has been defined to be as similar as possible for both observational and model data. Python packages and toolkits are presented as a community resource in the production of the files and evaluation analysis.
Shreya Trivedi, Imke Sievers, Marylou Athanase, Antonio Sánchez Benítez, and Tido Semmler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2214, 2024
Preprint archived
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Our study introduces a new method to compare CMIP6 models' sea ice and snow simulations with in-situ (MOSAiC) measurements. We assessed models for their accuracy in replicating Arctic sea ice and snow thicknesses, using two sea-ice and atmosphere-based methods to select "proxy years." We show that the models often overestimate snow thickness and mistime sea ice cycles. Despite limitations, this approach provides a valuable tool for evaluating climate models in localized time and space.
Manfred Wendisch, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, Benjamin Kirbus, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Steven J. Abel, Elisa F. Akansu, Felix Ament, Clémantyne Aubry, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Marlen Brückner, Hans-Christian Clemen, Sandro Dahlke, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Julien Delanoë, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Sarah Grawe, Silke Groß, Jörg Hartmann, Silvia Henning, Lutz Hirsch, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsofia Jurányi, Michail Karalis, Mona Kellermann, Marcus Klingebiel, Michael Lonardi, Johannes Lucke, Anna E. Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Marion Maturilli, Bernhard Mayer, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Janosch Michaelis, Michel Michalkov, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Roel Neggers, Davide Ori, Daria Paul, Fiona M. Paulus, Christian Pilz, Felix Pithan, Mira Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Maximilian Ringel, Nils Risse, Gregory C. Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Janna Rückert, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schaefer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Jörg Schmidt, Sebastian Schmidt, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Anja Schwarz, Holger Siebert, Harald Sodemann, Tim Sperzel, Gunnar Spreen, Bjorn Stevens, Frank Stratmann, Gunilla Svensson, Christian Tatzelt, Thomas Tuch, Timo Vihma, Christiane Voigt, Lea Volkmer, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Birgit Wehner, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Tobias Zinner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8865–8892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, 2024
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The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe. Warm-air intrusions (WAIs) into the Arctic may play an important role in explaining this phenomenon. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) out of the Arctic may link the Arctic climate changes to mid-latitude weather. In our article, we describe how to observe air mass transformations during CAOs and WAIs using three research aircraft instrumented with state-of-the-art remote-sensing and in situ measurement devices.
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2491, 2024
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Based on a series of storm-resolving greenhouse warming simulations conducted with the AWI-CM3 model at 9 km global atmosphere, 4–25 km ocean resolution, we present new projections of regional climate change, modes of climate variability and extreme events. The 10-year-long high resolution simulations for the 2000s, 2030s, 2060s, 2090s were initialized from a coarser resolution transient run (31 km atmosphere) which follows the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario from 1950–2100 CE.
Jonathan J. Day, Gunilla Svensson, Barbara Casati, Taneil Uttal, Siri-Jodha Khalsa, Eric Bazile, Elena Akish, Niramson Azouz, Lara Ferrighi, Helmut Frank, Michael Gallagher, Øystein Godøy, Leslie M. Hartten, Laura X. Huang, Jareth Holt, Massimo Di Stefano, Irene Suomi, Zen Mariani, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Teresa Remes, Rostislav Fadeev, Amy Solomon, Johanna Tjernström, and Mikhail Tolstykh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5511–5543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024, 2024
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The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP), which was designed to facilitate enhanced weather forecast evaluation in polar regions, is discussed here, focussing on describing the archive of forecast data and presenting a multi-model evaluation at Arctic supersites during February and March 2018. The study highlights an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variance that is common across models and a related inability to forecast cold extremes at several of the sites.
Taneil Uttal, Leslie M. Hartten, Siri Jodha Khalsa, Barbara Casati, Gunilla Svensson, Jonathan Day, Jareth Holt, Elena Akish, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Laura X. Huang, Robert Crawford, Zen Mariani, Øystein Godøy, Johanna A. K. Tjernström, Giri Prakash, Nicki Hickmon, Marion Maturilli, and Christopher J. Cox
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5225–5247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5225-2024, 2024
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A Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) format to systematically collate complex atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial data sets collected by multiple instruments during field campaigns is presented. The MODF format is also designed to be applied to model output data, yielding format-matching Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). MODFs plus MMDFs will augment and accelerate the synergistic use of model results with observational data to increase understanding and predictive skill.
Zen Mariani, Sara M. Morris, Taneil Uttal, Elena Akish, Robert Crawford, Laura Huang, Jonathan Day, Johanna Tjernström, Øystein Godøy, Lara Ferrighi, Leslie M. Hartten, Jareth Holt, Christopher J. Cox, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Marion Maturilli, Giri Prakash, James Mather, Kimberly Strong, Pierre Fogal, Vasily Kustov, Gunilla Svensson, Michael Gallagher, and Brian Vasel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3083–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3083-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3083-2024, 2024
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During the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), we increased measurements in the polar regions and have made dedicated efforts to centralize and standardize all of the different types of datasets that have been collected to facilitate user uptake and model–observation comparisons. This paper is an overview of those efforts and a description of the novel standardized Merged Observation Data Files (MODFs), including a description of the sites, data format, and instruments.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Michael Lonardi, Elisa F. Akansu, André Ehrlich, Mauro Mazzola, Christian Pilz, Matthew D. Shupe, Holger Siebert, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1961–1978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1961-2024, 2024
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Profiles of thermal-infrared irradiance were measured at two Arctic sites. The presence or lack of clouds influences the vertical structure of these observations. In particular, the cloud top region is a source of radiative energy that can promote cooling and mixing in the cloud layer. Simulations are used to further characterize how the amount of water in the cloud modifies this forcing. A case study additionally showcases the evolution of the radiation profiles in a dynamic atmosphere.
Maximilian Maahn, Dmitri Moisseev, Isabelle Steinke, Nina Maherndl, and Matthew D. Shupe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 899–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-899-2024, 2024
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The open-source Video In Situ Snowfall Sensor (VISSS) is a novel instrument for characterizing particle shape, size, and sedimentation velocity in snowfall. It combines a large observation volume with relatively high resolution and a design that limits wind perturbations. The open-source nature of the VISSS hardware and software invites the community to contribute to the development of the instrument, which has many potential applications in atmospheric science and beyond.
Gina C. Jozef, John J. Cassano, Sandro Dahlke, Mckenzie Dice, Christopher J. Cox, and Gijs de Boer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1429-2024, 2024
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Observations collected during MOSAiC were used to identify the range in vertical structure and stability of the central Arctic lower atmosphere through a self-organizing map analysis. Characteristics of wind features (such as low-level jets) and atmospheric moisture features (such as clouds) were analyzed in the context of the varying vertical structure and stability. Thus, the results of this paper give an overview of the thermodynamic and kinematic features of the central Arctic atmosphere.
Nathan Beech, Thomas Rackow, Tido Semmler, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-529-2024, 2024
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Cost-reducing modeling strategies are applied to high-resolution simulations of the Southern Ocean in a changing climate. They are evaluated with respect to observations and traditional, lower-resolution modeling methods. The simulations effectively reproduce small-scale ocean flows seen in satellite data and are largely consistent with traditional model simulations after 4 °C of warming. Small-scale flows are found to intensify near bathymetric features and to become more variable.
Elisa F. Akansu, Sandro Dahlke, Holger Siebert, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15473–15489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15473-2023, 2023
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The height of the mixing layer is an important measure of the surface-level distribution of energy or other substances. The experimental determination of this height is associated with large uncertainties, particularly under stable conditions that we often find during the polar night or in the presence of clouds. We present a reference method using turbulence measurements on a tethered balloon, which allows us to evaluate approaches based on radiosondes or surface observations.
Gina C. Jozef, Robert Klingel, John J. Cassano, Björn Maronga, Gijs de Boer, Sandro Dahlke, and Christopher J. Cox
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4983–4995, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4983-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4983-2023, 2023
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Observations from the MOSAiC expedition relating to lower-atmospheric temperature, wind, stability, moisture, and surface radiation budget from radiosondes, a meteorological tower, radiation station, and ceilometer were compiled to create a dataset which describes the thermodynamic and kinematic state of the central Arctic lower atmosphere between October 2019 and September 2020. This paper describes the methods used to develop this lower-atmospheric properties dataset.
Gina C. Jozef, John J. Cassano, Sandro Dahlke, Mckenzie Dice, Christopher J. Cox, and Gijs de Boer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13087–13106, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13087-2023, 2023
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Observations from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) were used to determine the frequency of occurrence of various central Arctic lower atmospheric stability regimes and how the stability regimes transition between each other. Wind and radiation observations were analyzed in the context of stability regime and season to reveal the relationships between Arctic atmospheric stability and mechanically and radiatively driven turbulent forcings.
Albert Ansmann, Kevin Ohneiser, Ronny Engelmann, Martin Radenz, Hannes Griesche, Julian Hofer, Dietrich Althausen, Jessie M. Creamean, Matthew C. Boyer, Daniel A. Knopf, Sandro Dahlke, Marion Maturilli, Henriette Gebauer, Johannes Bühl, Cristofer Jimenez, Patric Seifert, and Ulla Wandinger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12821–12849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12821-2023, 2023
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The 1-year MOSAiC (2019–2020) expedition with the German ice breaker Polarstern was the largest polar field campaign ever conducted. The Polarstern, with our lidar aboard, drifted with the pack ice north of 85° N for more than 7 months (October 2019 to mid-May 2020). We measured the full annual cycle of aerosol conditions in terms of aerosol optical and cloud-process-relevant properties. We observed a strong contrast between polluted winter and clean summer aerosol conditions.
Olivia Linke, Johannes Quaas, Finja Baumer, Sebastian Becker, Jan Chylik, Sandro Dahlke, André Ehrlich, Dörthe Handorf, Christoph Jacobi, Heike Kalesse-Los, Luca Lelli, Sina Mehrdad, Roel A. J. Neggers, Johannes Riebold, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, Niklas Schnierstein, Matthew D. Shupe, Chris Smith, Gunnar Spreen, Baptiste Verneuil, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Marco Vountas, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9963–9992, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, 2023
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Lapse rate feedback (LRF) is a major driver of the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. It arises because the warming is stronger at the surface than aloft. Several processes can affect the LRF in the Arctic, such as the omnipresent temperature inversion. Here, we compare multimodel climate simulations to Arctic-based observations from a large research consortium to broaden our understanding of these processes, find synergy among them, and constrain the Arctic LRF and AA.
Manfred Wendisch, Johannes Stapf, Sebastian Becker, André Ehrlich, Evelyn Jäkel, Marcus Klingebiel, Christof Lüpkes, Michael Schäfer, and Matthew D. Shupe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9647–9667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9647-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric radiation measurements have been conducted during two field campaigns using research aircraft. The data are analyzed to see if the near-surface air in the Arctic is warmed or cooled if warm–humid air masses from the south enter the Arctic or cold–dry air moves from the north from the Arctic to mid-latitude areas. It is important to study these processes and to check if climate models represent them well. Otherwise it is not possible to reliably forecast the future Arctic climate.
Shijie Peng, Qinghua Yang, Matthew D. Shupe, Xingya Xi, Bo Han, Dake Chen, Sandro Dahlke, and Changwei Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8683–8703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8683-2023, 2023
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Due to a lack of observations, the structure of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) remains to be further explored. By analyzing a year-round radiosonde dataset collected over the Arctic sea-ice surface, we found the annual cycle of the ABL height (ABLH) is primarily controlled by the evolution of ABL thermal structure, and the surface conditions also show a high correlation with ABLH variation. In addition, the Arctic ABLH is found to be decreased in summer compared with 20 years ago.
Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Marco Vountas, Luca Lelli, Martin Stengel, Matthew D. Shupe, Kerstin Ebell, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2903–2918, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2903-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2903-2023, 2023
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Clouds play an important role in Arctic amplification. Cloud data from ground-based sites are valuable but cannot represent the whole Arctic. Therefore the use of satellite products is a measure to cover the entire Arctic. However, the quality of such cloud measurements from space is not well known. The paper discusses the differences and commonalities between satellite and ground-based measurements. We conclude that the satellite dataset, with a few exceptions, can be used in the Arctic.
Ulrike Egerer, John J. Cassano, Matthew D. Shupe, Gijs de Boer, Dale Lawrence, Abhiram Doddi, Holger Siebert, Gina Jozef, Radiance Calmer, Jonathan Hamilton, Christian Pilz, and Michael Lonardi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2297–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2297-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2297-2023, 2023
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This paper describes how measurements from a small uncrewed aircraft system can be used to estimate the vertical turbulent heat energy exchange between different layers in the atmosphere. This is particularly important for the atmosphere in the Arctic, as turbulent exchange in this region is often suppressed but is still important to understand how the atmosphere interacts with sea ice. We present three case studies from the MOSAiC field campaign in Arctic sea ice in 2020.
Océane Hames, Mahdi Jafari, David Nicholas Wagner, Ian Raphael, David Clemens-Sewall, Chris Polashenski, Matthew D. Shupe, Martin Schneebeli, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6429–6449, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, 2022
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This paper presents an Eulerian–Lagrangian snow transport model implemented in the fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM, which we call snowBedFoam 1.0. We apply this model to reproduce snow deposition on a piece of ridged Arctic sea ice, which was produced during the MOSAiC expedition through scan measurements. The model appears to successfully reproduce the enhanced snow accumulation and deposition patterns, although some quantitative uncertainties were shown.
Jan Streffing, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tido Semmler, Lorenzo Zampieri, Patrick Scholz, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Nikolay Koldunov, Thomas Rackow, Joakim Kjellsson, Helge Goessling, Marylou Athanase, Qiang Wang, Jan Hegewald, Dmitry V. Sein, Longjiang Mu, Uwe Fladrich, Dirk Barbi, Paul Gierz, Sergey Danilov, Stephan Juricke, Gerrit Lohmann, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6399–6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, 2022
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We developed a new atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, AWI-CM3. Our model is significantly more computationally efficient than its predecessors AWI-CM1 and AWI-CM2. We show that the model, although cheaper to run, provides results of similar quality when modeling the historic period from 1850 to 2014. We identify the remaining weaknesses to outline future work. Finally we preview an improved simulation where the reduction in computational cost has to be invested in higher model resolution.
Gina Jozef, John Cassano, Sandro Dahlke, and Gijs de Boer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4001–4022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4001-2022, 2022
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During the MOSAiC expedition, meteorological conditions over the lowest 1 km of the atmosphere were sampled with the DataHawk2 uncrewed aircraft system. These data were used to identify the best method for atmospheric boundary layer height detection by comparing visually identified subjective boundary layer height to that identified by several objective automated detection methods. The results show a bulk Richardson number-based approach gives the best estimate of boundary layer height.
Assia Arouf, Hélène Chepfer, Thibault Vaillant de Guélis, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Matthew D. Shupe, Rodrigo Guzman, Artem Feofilov, Patrick Raberanto, Tristan S. L'Ecuyer, Seiji Kato, and Michael R. Gallagher
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3893–3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3893-2022, 2022
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We proposed new estimates of the surface longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect (CRE) derived from observations collected by a space-based lidar on board the CALIPSO satellite and radiative transfer computations. Our estimate appropriately captures the surface LW CRE annual variability over bright polar surfaces, and it provides a dataset more than 13 years long.
David N. Wagner, Matthew D. Shupe, Christopher Cox, Ola G. Persson, Taneil Uttal, Markus M. Frey, Amélie Kirchgaessner, Martin Schneebeli, Matthias Jaggi, Amy R. Macfarlane, Polona Itkin, Stefanie Arndt, Stefan Hendricks, Daniela Krampe, Marcel Nicolaus, Robert Ricker, Julia Regnery, Nikolai Kolabutin, Egor Shimanshuck, Marc Oggier, Ian Raphael, Julienne Stroeve, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 16, 2373–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2373-2022, 2022
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Based on measurements of the snow cover over sea ice and atmospheric measurements, we estimate snowfall and snow accumulation for the MOSAiC ice floe, between November 2019 and May 2020. For this period, we estimate 98–114 mm of precipitation. We suggest that about 34 mm of snow water equivalent accumulated until the end of April 2020 and that at least about 50 % of the precipitated snow was eroded or sublimated. Further, we suggest explanations for potential snowfall overestimation.
Sara Pasqualetto, Luisa Cristini, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Commun., 5, 87–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-87-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-87-2022, 2022
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Many projects in their reporting phase are required to provide a clear plan for evaluating the results of those efforts aimed at translating scientific results to a broader audience. This paper illustrates methodologies and strategies used in the framework of a European research project to assess the impact of knowledge transfer activities, both quantitatively and qualitatively, and provides recommendations and hints for developing a useful impact plan for scientific projects.
Michael R. Gallagher, Matthew D. Shupe, Hélène Chepfer, and Tristan L'Ecuyer
The Cryosphere, 16, 435–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-435-2022, 2022
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By using direct observations of snowfall and mass changes, the variability of daily snowfall mass input to the Greenland ice sheet is quantified for the first time. With new methods we conclude that cyclones west of Greenland in summer contribute the most snowfall, with 1.66 Gt per occurrence. These cyclones are contextualized in the broader Greenland climate, and snowfall is validated against mass changes to verify the results. Snowfall and mass change observations are shown to agree well.
Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Sergey Danilov, Qiang Wang, Nikolay Koldunov, Dmitry Sein, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 335–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-335-2022, 2022
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Structured-mesh ocean models are still the most mature in terms of functionality due to their long development history. However, unstructured-mesh ocean models have acquired new features and caught up in their functionality. This paper continues the work by Scholz et al. (2019) of documenting the features available in FESOM2.0. It focuses on the following two aspects: (i) partial bottom cells and embedded sea ice and (ii) dealing with mixing parameterisations enabled by using the CVMix package.
Sonja Murto, Rodrigo Caballero, Gunilla Svensson, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, 2022
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This study uses reanalysis data to investigate the role of atmospheric blocking, prevailing high-pressure systems and mid-latitude cyclones in driving high-Arctic wintertime warm extreme events. These events are mainly preceded by Ural and Scandinavian blocks, which are shown to be significantly influenced and amplified by cyclones in the North Atlantic. It also highlights processes that need to be well captured in climate models for improving their representation of Arctic wintertime climate.
Heather Guy, Ian M. Brooks, Ken S. Carslaw, Benjamin J. Murray, Von P. Walden, Matthew D. Shupe, Claire Pettersen, David D. Turner, Christopher J. Cox, William D. Neff, Ralf Bennartz, and Ryan R. Neely III
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15351–15374, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15351-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15351-2021, 2021
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We present the first full year of surface aerosol number concentration measurements from the central Greenland Ice Sheet. Aerosol concentrations here have a distinct seasonal cycle from those at lower-altitude Arctic sites, which is driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation. Our results can be used to help understand the role aerosols might play in Greenland surface melt through the modification of cloud properties. This is crucial in a rapidly changing region where observations are sparse.
Ronny Engelmann, Albert Ansmann, Kevin Ohneiser, Hannes Griesche, Martin Radenz, Julian Hofer, Dietrich Althausen, Sandro Dahlke, Marion Maturilli, Igor Veselovskii, Cristofer Jimenez, Robert Wiesen, Holger Baars, Johannes Bühl, Henriette Gebauer, Moritz Haarig, Patric Seifert, Ulla Wandinger, and Andreas Macke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13397–13423, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13397-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13397-2021, 2021
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A Raman lidar was operated aboard the icebreaker Polarstern during MOSAiC and monitored aerosol and cloud layers in the central Arctic up to 30 km height. The article provides an overview of the spectrum of aerosol profiling observations and shows aerosol–cloud interaction studies for liquid-water and ice clouds. A highlight was the detection of a 10 km deep wildfire smoke layer over the North Pole up to 17 km height from the fire season of 2019, which persisted over the whole winter period.
Benjamin Männel, Florian Zus, Galina Dick, Susanne Glaser, Maximilian Semmling, Kyriakos Balidakis, Jens Wickert, Marion Maturilli, Sandro Dahlke, and Harald Schuh
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5127–5138, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5127-2021, 2021
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Within the MOSAiC expedition, GNSS was used to monitor variations in atmospheric water vapor. Based on 15 months of continuously tracked data, coordinates and hourly zenith total delays (ZTDs) were determined using kinematic precise point positioning. The derived ZTD values agree within few millimeters with ERA5 and terrestrial GNSS and VLBI stations. The derived integrated water vapor corresponds to the frequently launched radiosondes (0.08 ± 0.04 kg m−2, rms of the differences of 1.47 kg m−2).
Jessie M. Creamean, Gijs de Boer, Hagen Telg, Fan Mei, Darielle Dexheimer, Matthew D. Shupe, Amy Solomon, and Allison McComiskey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1737–1757, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1737-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1737-2021, 2021
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Arctic clouds play a role in modulating sea ice extent. Importantly, aerosols facilitate cloud formation, and thus it is crucial to understand the interactions between aerosols and clouds. Vertical measurements of aerosols and clouds are needed to tackle this issue. We present results from balloon-borne measurements of aerosols and clouds over the course of 2 years in northern Alaska. These data shed light onto the vertical distributions of aerosols relative to clouds spanning multiple seasons.
Lena Frey, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Gunilla Svensson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 577–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-577-2021, 2021
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We investigate the vertical distribution of aerosol in the climate model NorESM1-M in five regions of marine stratocumulus clouds. We thereby analyze the total aerosol extinction to facilitate a comparison with satellite data. We find that the model underestimates aerosol extinction throughout the troposphere, especially elevated aerosol layers. Further, we perform sensitivity experiments to identify the processes most important for vertical aerosol distribution in our model.
Peggy Achtert, Ewan J. O'Connor, Ian M. Brooks, Georgia Sotiropoulou, Matthew D. Shupe, Bernhard Pospichal, Barbara J. Brooks, and Michael Tjernström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14983–15002, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14983-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14983-2020, 2020
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We present observations of precipitating and non-precipitating Arctic liquid and mixed-phase clouds during a research cruise along the Russian shelf in summer and autumn of 2014. Active remote-sensing observations, radiosondes, and auxiliary measurements are combined in the synergistic Cloudnet retrieval. Cloud properties are analysed with respect to cloud-top temperature and boundary layer structure. About 8 % of all liquid clouds show a liquid water path below the infrared black body limit.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Rosa Gierens, Stefan Kneifel, Matthew D. Shupe, Kerstin Ebell, Marion Maturilli, and Ulrich Löhnert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3459–3481, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3459-2020, 2020
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Multiyear statistics of persistent low-level mixed-phase clouds observed at an Arctic fjord environment in Svalbard are presented. The effects the local boundary layer (i.e. the fjords' wind climate and surface coupling), regional wind direction, and seasonality have on the cloud occurrence and properties are evaluated using a synergy of ground-based remote sensing methods and auxiliary data. The phenomena considered were found to modify the amount of liquid and ice in the studied clouds.
Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Ozgur Gurses, Sergey Danilov, Nikolay Koldunov, Qiang Wang, Dmitry Sein, Margarita Smolentseva, Natalja Rakowsky, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4875–4899, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4875-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4875-2019, 2019
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This paper is the first in a series documenting and assessing important key components of the Finite-volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model version 2.0 (FESOM2.0). We assess the hydrographic biases, large-scale circulation, numerical performance and scalability of FESOM2.0 compared with its predecessor, FESOM1.4. The main conclusion is that the results of FESOM2.0 compare well to FESOM1.4 in terms of model biases but with a remarkable performance speedup with a 3 times higher throughput.
Nikolay V. Koldunov, Vadym Aizinger, Natalja Rakowsky, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Sergey Danilov, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3991–4012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3991-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3991-2019, 2019
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We measure how computational performance of the global FESOM2 ocean model (formulated on an unstructured mesh) changes with the increase in the number of computational cores. We find that for many components of the model the performance increases linearly but we also identify two bottlenecks: sea ice and ssh submodules. We show that FESOM2 is on par with the state-of-the-art ocean models in terms of throughput that reach 16 simulated years per day for eddy resolving configuration (1/10°).
Gijs de Boer, Darielle Dexheimer, Fan Mei, John Hubbe, Casey Longbottom, Peter J. Carroll, Monty Apple, Lexie Goldberger, David Oaks, Justin Lapierre, Michael Crume, Nathan Bernard, Matthew D. Shupe, Amy Solomon, Janet Intrieri, Dale Lawrence, Abhiram Doddi, Donna J. Holdridge, Michael Hubbell, Mark D. Ivey, and Beat Schmid
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1349–1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1349-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1349-2019, 2019
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This paper provides a summary of observations collected at Oliktok Point, Alaska, as part of the Profiling at Oliktok Point to Enhance YOPP Experiments (POPEYE) campaign. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is a multi-year concentrated effort to improve forecasting capabilities at high latitudes across a variety of timescales. POPEYE observations include atmospheric data collected using unmanned aircraft, tethered balloons, and radiosondes, made in parallel with routine measurements at the site.
Thomas Rackow, Dmitry V. Sein, Tido Semmler, Sergey Danilov, Nikolay V. Koldunov, Dmitry Sidorenko, Qiang Wang, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2635–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2635-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2635-2019, 2019
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Current climate models show errors in the deep ocean that are larger than the level of natural variability and the response to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. These errors are larger than the signals we aim to predict. With the AWI Climate Model, we show that increasing resolution to resolve eddies can lead to major reductions in deep ocean errors. AWI's next-generation (CMIP6) model configuration will thus use locally eddy-resolving computational grids for projecting climate change.
Ralf Bennartz, Frank Fell, Claire Pettersen, Matthew D. Shupe, and Dirk Schuettemeyer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8101–8121, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8101-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8101-2019, 2019
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The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is rapidly melting. Snowfall is the only source of ice mass over the GrIS. We use satellite observations to assess how much snow on average falls over the GrIS and what the annual cycle and spatial distribution of snowfall is. We find the annual mean snowfall over the GrIS inferred from CloudSat to be 34 ± 7.5 cm yr−1 liquid equivalent.
Maximilian Maahn, Fabian Hoffmann, Matthew D. Shupe, Gijs de Boer, Sergey Y. Matrosov, and Edward P. Luke
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 3151–3171, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3151-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3151-2019, 2019
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Cloud radars are unique instruments for observing cloud processes, but uncertainties in radar calibration have frequently limited data quality. Here, we present three novel methods for calibrating vertically pointing cloud radars. These calibration methods are based on microphysical processes of liquid clouds, such as the transition of cloud droplets to drizzle drops. We successfully apply the methods to cloud radar data from the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and Oliktok Point (OLI) ARM sites.
Christopher J. Cox, David C. Noone, Max Berkelhammer, Matthew D. Shupe, William D. Neff, Nathaniel B. Miller, Von P. Walden, and Konrad Steffen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7467–7485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7467-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7467-2019, 2019
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Fogs are frequently reported by observers on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Fogs play a role in the hydrological and energetic balances of the ice sheet surface, but as yet the properties of Greenland fogs are not well known. We observed fogs in all months from Summit Station for 2 years and report their properties. Annually, fogs impart a slight warming to the surface and a case study suggests that they are particularly influential by providing insulation during the coldest part of the day in summer.
Doug M. Smith, James A. Screen, Clara Deser, Judah Cohen, John C. Fyfe, Javier García-Serrano, Thomas Jung, Vladimir Kattsov, Daniela Matei, Rym Msadek, Yannick Peings, Michael Sigmond, Jinro Ukita, Jin-Ho Yoon, and Xiangdong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1139–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019, 2019
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The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) is an endorsed contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It will investigate the causes and global consequences of polar amplification through coordinated multi-model numerical experiments. This paper documents the experimental protocol.
Xiang-Yu Li, Gunilla Svensson, Axel Brandenburg, and Nils E. L. Haugen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 639–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-639-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-639-2019, 2019
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The broadening of droplet size distributions in stratiform clouds, where the updraft velocity is almost zero, is puzzling. Without turbulence, the classical treatment of condensational growth of cloud droplets fails to explain this
broadening. We investigated the time evolution of droplet size distributions using direct numerical simulations, where turbulence is resolved into the smallest scales. We found that the broadening is due to the turbulence-facilitated supersaturation fluctuations.
Amy Solomon, Gijs de Boer, Jessie M. Creamean, Allison McComiskey, Matthew D. Shupe, Maximilian Maahn, and Christopher Cox
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17047–17059, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17047-2018, 2018
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The results of this study indicate that perturbations in ice nucleating particles (INPs) dominate over cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) perturbations in Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus; i.e., an equivalent fractional decrease in CCN and INPs results in an increase in the cloud-top longwave cooling rate, even though the droplet effective radius increases and the cloud emissivity decreases. In addition, cloud-processing causes layering of aerosols with increased concentrations of CCN at cloud top.
Kerstin Hartung, Gunilla Svensson, Hamish Struthers, Anna-Lena Deppenmeier, and Wilco Hazeleger
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4117–4137, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4117-2018, 2018
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Single-column models have been used to develop weather and climate models for several decades. They decouple small-scale processes from large-scale forcing and allow us to test models in a controlled environment with reduced computational cost. Here, we present a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean single-column model, including sea ice. We demonstrate that it is a valuable tool to advance our understanding in marine and polar boundary layer processes and interactions of their coupled components.
Matthew S. Norgren, Gijs de Boer, and Matthew D. Shupe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13345–13361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13345-2018, 2018
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Arctic mixed-phase clouds are a critical component of the Arctic climate system because of their ability to influence the surface radiation budget. The radiative impact of an individual cloud is closely linked to the ability of the cloud to convert liquid drops to ice. In this paper, we show through an observational record that clouds present in polluted atmospheric conditions have lower amounts of ice than similar clouds found in clean conditions.
Claire Pettersen, Ralf Bennartz, Aronne J. Merrelli, Matthew D. Shupe, David D. Turner, and Von P. Walden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4715–4735, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4715-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4715-2018, 2018
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A novel method for classifying Arctic precipitation using ground based remote sensors is presented. The classification reveals two distinct, primary regimes of precipitation over the central Greenland Ice Sheet: snowfall coupled to deep, fully glaciated ice clouds or to shallow, mixed-phase clouds. The ice clouds are associated with low-pressure storm systems from the southeast, while the mixed-phase clouds slowly propagate from the southwest along a quiescent flow.
Qiang Wang, Claudia Wekerle, Sergey Danilov, Xuezhu Wang, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1229–1255, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1229-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1229-2018, 2018
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For developing a system for Arctic research, we evaluate the Arctic Ocean simulated by FESOM. We use two global meshes differing in the horizontal resolution only in the Arctic Ocean (24 vs. 4.5 km). The high resolution significantly improves the model's representation of the Arctic Ocean. The most pronounced improvement is in the Arctic intermediate layer. The high resolution also improves the ocean surface circulation, mainly through a better representation of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
Robert A. Stillwell, Ryan R. Neely III, Jeffrey P. Thayer, Matthew D. Shupe, and David D. Turner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 835–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-835-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-835-2018, 2018
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This work focuses on making unambiguous measurements of Arctic cloud phase and assessing those measurements within the context of cloud radiative effects. It is found that effects related to lidar data recording systems can cause retrieval ambiguities that alter the interpretation of cloud phase in as much as 30 % of the available data. This misinterpretation of cloud-phase data can cause a misinterpretation of the effect of cloud phase on the surface radiation budget by as much as 10 to 30 %.
Lena Frey, Frida A.-M. Bender, and Gunilla Svensson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9145–9162, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9145-2017, 2017
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In this study, the cloud albedo effect in climate models is investigated, separating the influence of anthropogenic sulfate and non-sulfate aerosols. Cloud albedo changes induced by added anthropogenic aerosols are found to be determined by changes in the cloud water content rather than model sensitivity to monthly aerosol variations. The results also indicate that the background aerosol is the main driver for a cloud brightening effect on the month-to-month scale.
Yinghui Liu, Matthew D. Shupe, Zhien Wang, and Gerald Mace
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5973–5989, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5973-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5973-2017, 2017
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Detailed and accurate vertical distributions of cloud properties are essential to accurately calculate the surface radiative flux and to depict the mean climate state, and such information is more desirable in the Arctic due to its recent rapid changes and the challenging observation conditions. This study presents a feasible way to provide such information by blending cloud observations from surface and space-based instruments with the understanding of their respective strength and limitations.
Sergey Danilov, Dmitry Sidorenko, Qiang Wang, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 765–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-765-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-765-2017, 2017
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Numerical models of global ocean circulation are used to learn about future climate. The ocean circulation is characterized by processes on different spatial scales which are still beyond the reach of present computers. We describe a new model setup that allows one to vary a model's spatial resolution and hence focus the computational power on regional dynamics, reaching a better description of local processes in areas of interest.
Nathaniel B. Miller, Matthew D. Shupe, Christopher J. Cox, David Noone, P. Ola G. Persson, and Konrad Steffen
The Cryosphere, 11, 497–516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-497-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-497-2017, 2017
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A comprehensive observational dataset is assembled to investigate atmosphere–Greenland ice sheet interactions and characterize surface temperature variability. The amount the surface temperature warms, due to increases in cloud presence and/or elevated sun angle, varies throughout the annual cycle and is modulated by the responses of latent, sensible and ground heat fluxes. This observationally based study provides process-based relationships, which are useful for evaluation of climate models.
Robert A. Stillwell, Ryan R. Neely III, Jeffrey P. Thayer, Matthew D. Shupe, and Michael O'Neill
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-303, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-303, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This work explores the observation of Arctic mixed phase clouds by lidar and the consequences of mishandling lidar signals linking the signals to their geophysical interpretation. It concludes 3 points: 1) cloud phase identification is not only linked to cloud phase but other cloud properties, 2) having more than two polarization signals can be used to quality control data not possible with only two signals, and 3) phase retrievals with more than two polarizations enhance retrieval flexibility.
Claire Pettersen, Ralf Bennartz, Mark S. Kulie, Aronne J. Merrelli, Matthew D. Shupe, and David D. Turner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4743–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4743-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4743-2016, 2016
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We examined four summers of data from a ground-based atmospheric science instrument suite at Summit Station, Greenland, to isolate the signature of the ice precipitation. By using a combination of instruments with different specialities, we identified a passive microwave signature of the ice precipitation. This ice signature compares well to models using synthetic data characteristic of the site.
Qinghua Yang, Martin Losch, Svetlana N. Losa, Thomas Jung, Lars Nerger, and Thomas Lavergne
The Cryosphere, 10, 761–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-761-2016, 2016
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We assimilate the summer SICCI sea ice concentration data with an ensemble-based Kalman Filter. Comparing with the approach using a constant data uncertainty, the sea ice concentration estimates are further improved when the SICCI-provided uncertainty are taken into account, but the sea ice thickness cannot be improved. We find the data assimilation system cannot give a reasonable ensemble spread of sea ice concentration and thickness if the provided uncertainty are directly used.
A. Solomon, G. Feingold, and M. D. Shupe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10631–10643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10631-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10631-2015, 2015
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The maintenance of cloud ice production in Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus is investigated in large eddy simulations that include a prognostic ice nuclei (IN) formulation and a diurnal cycle. It is demonstrated that IN recycling through subcloud sublimation prolongs ice production. Competing feedbacks between dynamical mixing and recycling are found to slow the rate of ice lost. The results of this study have important implications for the maintenance of phase partitioning in Arctic clouds.
S. Danilov, Q. Wang, R. Timmermann, N. Iakovlev, D. Sidorenko, M. Kimmritz, T. Jung, and J. Schröter
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1747–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1747-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1747-2015, 2015
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Unstructured meshes allow multi-resolution modeling of ocean dynamics. Sea ice models formulated on unstructured meshes are a necessary component of ocean models intended for climate studies. This work presents a description of a finite-element sea ice model which is used as a component of a finite-element sea ice ocean circulation model. The principles underlying its design can be of interest to other groups pursuing ocean modelling on unstructured meshes.
G. Sotiropoulou, J. Sedlar, M. Tjernström, M. D. Shupe, I. M. Brooks, and P. O. G. Persson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12573–12592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12573-2014, 2014
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During ASCOS, clouds are more frequently decoupled from the surface than coupled to it; when coupling occurs it is primary driven by the cloud. Decoupled clouds have a bimodal structure; they are either weakly or strongly decoupled from the surface; the enhancement of the decoupling is possibly due to sublimation of precipitation. Stable clouds (no cloud-driven mixing) are also observed; those are optically thin, often single-phase liquid, with no or negligible precipitation (e.g. fog).
J. M. Intrieri, G. de Boer, M. D. Shupe, J. R. Spackman, J. Wang, P. J. Neiman, G. A. Wick, T. F. Hock, and R. E. Hood
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3917–3926, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3917-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3917-2014, 2014
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In winter 2011, the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) was deployed over the Arctic to evaluate a UAS dropsonde system at high latitudes. Dropsondes deployed from the Global Hawk successfully obtained high-resolution profiles of temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind speed and direction information between the stratosphere and surface. During the 25-hour polar flight, the Global Hawk released 35 sondes between the North Slope of Alaska and 85° N latitude.
Q. Wang, S. Danilov, D. Sidorenko, R. Timmermann, C. Wekerle, X. Wang, T. Jung, and J. Schröter
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 663–693, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-663-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-663-2014, 2014
J. Sedlar and M. D. Shupe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3461-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3461-2014, 2014
M. Tjernström, C. Leck, C. E. Birch, J. W. Bottenheim, B. J. Brooks, I. M. Brooks, L. Bäcklin, R. Y.-W. Chang, G. de Leeuw, L. Di Liberto, S. de la Rosa, E. Granath, M. Graus, A. Hansel, J. Heintzenberg, A. Held, A. Hind, P. Johnston, J. Knulst, M. Martin, P. A. Matrai, T. Mauritsen, M. Müller, S. J. Norris, M. V. Orellana, D. A. Orsini, J. Paatero, P. O. G. Persson, Q. Gao, C. Rauschenberg, Z. Ristovski, J. Sedlar, M. D. Shupe, B. Sierau, A. Sirevaag, S. Sjogren, O. Stetzer, E. Swietlicki, M. Szczodrak, P. Vaattovaara, N. Wahlberg, M. Westberg, and C. R. Wheeler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2823–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2823-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2823-2014, 2014
G. de Boer, M. D. Shupe, P. M. Caldwell, S. E. Bauer, O. Persson, J. S. Boyle, M. Kelley, S. A. Klein, and M. Tjernström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 427–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-427-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-427-2014, 2014
M. D. Shupe, P. O. G. Persson, I. M. Brooks, M. Tjernström, J. Sedlar, T. Mauritsen, S. Sjogren, and C. Leck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9379–9399, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9379-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9379-2013, 2013
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The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)
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Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3081–3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, 2025
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We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.
Yong-He Liu and Zong-Liang Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3157–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, 2025
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NMH-CS 3.0 is a C#-based ecohydrological model reconstructed from the WRF-Hydro/Noah-MP model by translating the Fortran code of WRF-Hydro 3.0 and integrating a parallel river routing module. It enables efficient execution on multi-core personal computers. Simulations in the Yellow River basin demonstrate its consistency with WRF-Hydro outputs, providing a reliable alternative to the original Noah-MP model.
Conor T. Doherty, Weile Wang, Hirofumi Hashimoto, and Ian G. Brosnan
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3003–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, 2025
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We present, analyze, and validate a methodology for quantifying uncertainty in gridded meteorological data products produced by spatial interpolation. In a validation case study using daily maximum near-surface air temperature (Tmax), the method works well and produces predictive distributions with closely matching theoretical versus actual coverage levels. Application of the method reveals that the magnitude of uncertainty in interpolated Tmax varies significantly in both space and time.
Martin Juckes, Karl E. Taylor, Fabrizio Antonio, David Brayshaw, Carlo Buontempo, Jian Cao, Paul J. Durack, Michio Kawamiya, Hyungjun Kim, Tomas Lovato, Chloe Mackallah, Matthew Mizielinski, Alessandra Nuzzo, Martina Stockhause, Daniele Visioni, Jeremy Walton, Briony Turner, Eleanor O'Rourke, and Beth Dingley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, 2025
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The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used variables from Earth system models based on an assessment of data publication and download records from the largest archive of global climate projects.
Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Alexander Reedy, Matteo Turilli, Shantenu Jha, and Erica L. Ashe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2609–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, 2025
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PaleoSTeHM v1.0 is a state-of-the-art framework designed to reconstruct past environmental conditions using geological data. Built on modern machine learning techniques, it efficiently handles the sparse and noisy nature of paleo-records, allowing scientists to make accurate and scalable inferences about past environmental change. By using flexible statistical models, PaleoSTeHM separates different sources of uncertainty, improving the precision of historical climate reconstructions.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
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Tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, referred to here as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols and partly due to systematic model errors. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2443–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, 2025
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Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we develop and apply a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. This system is meant to advance our understanding of the ocean's role in climate predictability.
Liwen Wang, Qian Li, Qi Lv, Xuan Peng, and Wei You
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2427–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, 2025
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Our research presents a novel deep learning approach called "TemDeep" for downscaling atmospheric variables at arbitrary time resolutions based on temporal coherence. Results show that our method can accurately recover evolution details superior to other methods, reaching 53.7 % in the restoration rate. Our findings are important for advancing weather forecasting models and enabling more precise and reliable predictions to support disaster preparedness, agriculture, and sustainable development.
Teo Price-Broncucia, Allison Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Michael Duda, and Rebecca Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2349–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, 2025
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The ensemble consistency test (ECT) and its ultrafast variant (UF-ECT) have become powerful tools in the development community for the identification of unwanted changes in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We develop a generalized setup framework to enable easy adoption of the ECT approach for other model developers and communities. This framework specifies test parameters to accurately characterize model variability and balance test sensitivity and computational cost.
Esteban Fernández Villanueva and Gary Shaffer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2161–2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, 2025
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We describe, calibrate and test the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) II model, a new, broad, adaptable and fast Earth system model. DCESS II is designed for global simulations over timescales of years to millions of years using limited computer resources like a personal computer. With its flexibility and comprehensive treatment of the global carbon cycle, DCESS II is a useful, computationally friendly tool for simulations of past climates as well as for future Earth system projections.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
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We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
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Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
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Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Tao Zhang, Cyril Morcrette, Meng Zhang, Wuyin Lin, Shaocheng Xie, Ye Liu, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Joana Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1917–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, 2025
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Earth system models (ESMs) struggle with the uncertainties associated with parameterizing subgrid physics. Machine learning (ML) algorithms offer a solution by learning the important relationships and features from high-resolution models. To incorporate ML parameterizations into ESMs, we develop a Fortran–Python interface that allows for calling Python functions within Fortran-based ESMs. Through two case studies, this interface demonstrates its feasibility, modularity, and effectiveness.
Kostas Tsigaridis, Andrew S. Ackerman, Igor Aleinov, Mark A. Chandler, Thomas L. Clune, Christopher M. Colose, Anthony D. Del Genio, Maxwell Kelley, Nancy Y. Kiang, Anthony Leboissetier, Jan P. Perlwitz, Reto A. Ruedy, Gary L. Russell, Linda E. Sohl, Michael J. Way, and Eric T. Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-925, 2025
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We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D, a generalized 3-dimensional model for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
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Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
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We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1413–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, 2025
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Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most severe effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor, where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a subsea CO2 injection.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1333–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, 2025
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The daily cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts clouds above the ocean and could influence the clustering of thunderstorms linked to extreme rainfall and hurricanes. However, daily SST variability is often poorly represented in modeling studies of how clouds cluster. We present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper-ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. Evaluating the model against observations, we show that it performs significantly better than common slab models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
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HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jordi Buckley Paules, Simone Fatichi, Bonnie Warring, and Athanasios Paschalis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1287–1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, 2025
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We present and validate enhancements to the process-based T&C model aimed at improving its representation of crop growth and management practices. The updated model, T&C-CROP, enables applications such as analysing the hydrological and carbon storage impacts of land use transitions (e.g. conversions between crops, forests, and pastures) and optimizing irrigation and fertilization strategies in response to climate change.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
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This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
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Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
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The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
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CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
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The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
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A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Panagiotis Adamidis, Erik Pfister, Hendryk Bockelmann, Dominik Zobel, Jens-Olaf Beismann, and Marek Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 905–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, 2025
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In this paper, we investigated performance indicators of the climate model ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) on different compute architectures to answer the question of how to generate high-resolution climate simulations. Evidently, it is not enough to use more computing units of the conventionally used architectures; higher memory throughput is the most promising approach. More potential can be gained from single-node optimization rather than simply increasing the number of compute nodes.
Jonah K. Shaw, Dustin J. Swales, Sergio DeSouza-Machado, David D. Turner, Jennifer E. Kay, and David P. Schneider
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-169, 2025
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Satellites have observed earth's emission of infrared radiation since the 1970s. Because infrared wavelengths interact with the atmosphere in distinct ways, these observations contain information about the earth and atmosphere. We present a tool that runs alongside global climate models and produces output that can be directly compared with satellite measurements of infrared radiation. We then use this tool for climate model evaluation, climate change detection, and satellite mission design.
Kangari Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 763–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, 2025
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The study aimed to improve the representation of wheat and rice in a land model for the Indian region. The modified model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, and carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific crop parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jason P. Evans, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Yue Li, and Matthew L. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 703–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, 2025
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We evaluate the skill in simulating the Australian climate of some of the latest generation of regional climate models. We show when and where the models simulate this climate with high skill versus model limitations. We show how new models perform relative to the previous-generation models, assessing how model design features may underlie key performance improvements. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Stephen White, Yue Li, Moutassem El Rafei, Rishav Goyal, Matthew L. Riley, and Jyothi Lingala
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, 2025
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We introduce new climate models that simulate Australia’s future climate at regional scales, including at an unprecedented resolution of 4 km for 1950–2100. We describe the model design process used to create these new climate models. We show how the new models perform relative to previous-generation models and compare their climate projections. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide climate model design and the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Gabi Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Dann Mitchell, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Piotr Wolski, Wenxia Zhang, and Vivek K. Arora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, 2025
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Climate model simulations of the response to human and natural influences together, natural climate influences alone, and greenhouse gases alone, among others, are key to quantifying human influence on the climate. The last set of such coordinated simulations underpinned key findings in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Here we propose a new set of such simulations to be used in the next generation of attribution studies, and to underpin the next IPCC report.
Jiawang Feng, Chun Zhao, Qiuyan Du, Zining Yang, and Chen Jin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 585–603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, 2025
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In this study, we improved the calculation of how aerosols in the air interact with radiation in WRF-Chem. The original model used a simplified method, but we developed a more accurate approach. We found that this method significantly changes the properties of the estimated aerosols and their effects on radiation, especially for dust aerosols. It also impacts the simulated weather conditions. Our work highlights the importance of correctly representing aerosol–radiation interactions in models.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
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We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
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The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
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The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
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Observational data and modelling capabilities have expanded in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing, and handling a large amount of data. This work describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the VISION toolkit, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
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We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Jörg Benke, Ruth Comer, Birgit Hassler, Emma Hogan, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Francesco Nattino, Patrick Peglar, Valeriu Predoi, Stef Smeets, Stephen Worsley, Martin Yeo, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. Here, we describe recent significant improvements of ESMValTool’s computational efficiency including parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing. Evaluations with the enhanced version of ESMValTool are faster, use less computational resources, and can handle input data larger than the available memory.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
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Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
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Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Sian Megan Chilcott and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-203, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Climate models are expensive to run and often underestimate how sensitive Arctic sea ice is to climate change. To address this, we developed a simple model that emulates the response of sea ice to global warming. We find the remaining carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that will avoid a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is lower than previous estimates of 821 Gigatonnes of CO2. Our model also provides insights into the future of winter sea ice, examining a larger ensemble than previously possible.
Giovanni Seijo-Ellis, Donata Giglio, Gustavo Marques, and Frank Bryan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8989–9021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, 2024
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A CESM–MOM6 regional configuration of the Caribbean Sea was developed in response to the rising need for high-resolution models for climate impact studies. The configuration is validated for the period 2000–2020 and improves significant errors in a low-resolution model. Oceanic properties are well represented. Patterns of freshwater associated with the Amazon River are well captured, and the mean flows of ocean waters across multiple passages in the Caribbean Sea agree with observations.
Yan Bo, Hao Liang, Tao Li, and Feng Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-212, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
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This study proposed an advancing framework for modeling regional rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The framework integrated a process-based soil-crop model with key physiological effects, a novel model upscaling method, and the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm at a parallel computing platform. The framework provides a valuable tool for irrigation optimization to deliver co-benefits of ensuring food production, reducing water use and greenhouse gas emissions.
Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Charles A. Stock, Andrew C. Ross, Yi-Cheng Teng, Theresa Morrison, Wei Cheng, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Raphael Dussin, Robert Hallberg, Claudine Hauri, Katherine Hedstrom, Albert Hermann, Michael G. Jacox, Kelly A. Kearney, Remi Pages, Darren J. Pilcher, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Vivek Seelanki, and Niki Zadeh
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-195, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We made a new regional ocean model to assist fisheries and ecosystem managers make decisions in the Northeast Pacific Ocean (NEP). We found that the model did well simulating past ocean conditions like temperature, and nutrient and oxygen levels, and can even reproduce metrics used by and important to ecosystem managers.
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Short summary
Evaluating climate models usually requires long observational time series, but we present a method that also works for short field campaigns. We compare climate model output to observations from the MOSAiC expedition in the central Arctic Ocean. All models show how the arrival of a warm air mass warms the Arctic in April 2020, but two models do not show the response of snow temperature to the diurnal cycle. One model has too little liquid water and too much ice in clouds during cold days.
Evaluating climate models usually requires long observational time series, but we present a...
