Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1231-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1231-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
22 Feb 2023
Model description paper |
| 22 Feb 2023
| 22 Feb 2023
Simulating marine neodymium isotope distributions using Nd v1.0 coupled to the ocean component of the FAMOUS–MOSES1 climate model: sensitivities to reversible scavenging efficiency and benthic source distributions
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Ruza F. Ivanovic
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Lauren J. Gregoire
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Julia Tindall
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Tina van de Flierdt
Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Yves Plancherel
Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Frerk Pöppelmeier
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern,
Switzerland
Kazuyo Tachikawa
Aix Marseille Univ., CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Coll France, CEREGE,
Aix-en-Provence, 13545, France
Paul J. Valdes
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1RL, UK
Related authors
Suzanne Robinson, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Lachlan Astfalck, Tina van de Flierdt, Yves Plancherel, Frerk Pöppelmeier, and Kazuyo Tachikawa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-937, 2022
Preprint archived
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The neodymium (Nd) isotope (εNd) scheme in the ocean model of FAMOUS is used to explore a benthic Nd flux to seawater. Our results demonstrate that sluggish modern Pacific waters are sensitive to benthic flux alterations, whereas the well-ventilated North Atlantic displays a much weaker response. In closing, there are distinct regional differences in how seawater acquires its εNd signal, in part relating to the complex interactions of Nd addition and water advection.
Laura Endres, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Anna L. C. Hughes, Hai Cheng, and Heather Stoll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3911, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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Stable isotope data of a precisely dated stalagmite from northwestern Iberia indicate gradual North Atlantic meltwater input during the last glacial maximum, followed by abrupt surges early in the last deglaciation. The first abrupt surge was followed by cooling about 850 years later – unlike later events – which reveals that the Atlantic circulation’s sensitivity to meltwater is variable and related to the evolving background climate boundary conditions.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul J. Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past, 21, 1443–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, 2025
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This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) changes are the primary drivers of the warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The analysis highlights the model's sensitivity of CO2 and AMOC to meltwater and the meltwater history of temperature changes at high southern latitudes.
Arianna Olivelli, Rossella Arcucci, Mark Rehkämper, and Tina van de Flierdt
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3679–3699, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3679-2025, 2025
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In this study, we use machine learning models to produce the first global maps of Pb concentrations and isotope compositions in the ocean. In line with observations, we find that (i) the surface Indian Ocean has the highest levels of pollution, (ii) pollution from previous decades is sinking in the North Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and (iii) waters carrying Pb pollution are spreading from the Southern Ocean throughout the Southern Hemisphere at intermediate depths.
Loïc Sablon, Pierre Maffre, Yves Goddéris, Paul J. Valdes, Justin Gérard, Jarno J. C. Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, 2025
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We propose an innovative climate modelling framework that combines statistical methods with climate simulations to study Earth's environmental systems. The model captures how orbital changes and carbon dioxide levels influence climate atmospheric dynamics, offering a detailed and efficient way to explore long-term processes. This tool provides new opportunities to investigate Earth's climate history and its implications for future changes.
James W. Marschalek, Edward Gasson, Tina van de Flierdt, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Martin J. Siegert, and Liam Holder
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1673–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1673-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1673-2025, 2025
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Ice sheet models can help predict how Antarctica's ice sheets respond to environmental change, and such models benefit from comparison to geological data. Here, we use an ice sheet model output and other data to predict the erosion of debris and trace its transport to where it is deposited on the ocean floor. This allows the results of ice sheet modelling to be directly and quantitively compared to real-world data, helping to reduce uncertainty regarding Antarctic sea level contribution.
Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Christian Wirths, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 627–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, 2025
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During the Last Deglaciation, global surface temperature rose by about 4–7 °C over several millennia. We show that changes in year-to-year up to century-to-century fluctuations of temperature and precipitation during the Deglaciation were mostly larger than during either the preceding or succeeding more stable periods in 15 climate model simulations. The analysis demonstrates how ice sheets, meltwater, and volcanism influence simulated variability to inform future simulation protocols.
Markus Adloff, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Thomas F. Stocker, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 21, 571–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-571-2025, 2025
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We simulated how different processes affected the carbon cycle over the last eight glacial cycles. We found that the effects of interactive marine sediments enlarge the carbon fluxes that result from these processes, especially in the ocean, and alter various proxy signals. We provide an assessment of the directions of regional and global proxy changes that might be expected in response to different glacial–interglacial Earth system changes in the presence of interactive marine sediments.
Babette A.A. Hoogakker, Catherine Davis, Yi Wang, Stephanie Kusch, Katrina Nilsson-Kerr, Dalton S. Hardisty, Allison Jacobel, Dharma Reyes Macaya, Nicolaas Glock, Sha Ni, Julio Sepúlveda, Abby Ren, Alexandra Auderset, Anya V. Hess, Katrin J. Meissner, Jorge Cardich, Robert Anderson, Christine Barras, Chandranath Basak, Harold J. Bradbury, Inda Brinkmann, Alexis Castillo, Madelyn Cook, Kassandra Costa, Constance Choquel, Paula Diz, Jonas Donnenfield, Felix J. Elling, Zeynep Erdem, Helena L. Filipsson, Sebastián Garrido, Julia Gottschalk, Anjaly Govindankutty Menon, Jeroen Groeneveld, Christian Hallmann, Ingrid Hendy, Rick Hennekam, Wanyi Lu, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Lélia Matos, Alfredo Martínez-García, Giulia Molina, Práxedes Muñoz, Simone Moretti, Jennifer Morford, Sophie Nuber, Svetlana Radionovskaya, Morgan Reed Raven, Christopher J. Somes, Anja S. Studer, Kazuyo Tachikawa, Raúl Tapia, Martin Tetard, Tyler Vollmer, Xingchen Wang, Shuzhuang Wu, Yan Zhang, Xin-Yuan Zheng, and Yuxin Zhou
Biogeosciences, 22, 863–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-863-2025, 2025
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Paleo-oxygen proxies can extend current records, constrain pre-anthropogenic baselines, provide datasets necessary to test climate models under different boundary conditions, and ultimately understand how ocean oxygenation responds on longer timescales. Here we summarize current proxies used for the reconstruction of Cenozoic seawater oxygen levels. This includes an overview of the proxy's history, how it works, resources required, limitations, and future recommendations.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Stephen Cornford, Jonathan Owen, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, and Robin S. Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3896, 2025
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Simulations of the last two glacial periods are ran using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The model is able to produce ice sheet volumes, extents and dynamics in good agreement with data. Sensitivity analysis is undertaken and shows the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet size is particularly sensitive to the albedo of the ice in the model but the different ice sheets display different sensitivities to other processes.
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
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We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
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We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Christopher L. Hancock, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Sylvia G. Dee, and Ruza F. Ivanovic
Clim. Past, 20, 2663–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2663-2024, 2024
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We reconstruct global hydroclimate anomalies for the past 21 000 years using a data assimilation methodology blending observations recorded in lake sediments with the climate dynamics simulated by climate models. The reconstruction resolves data–model disagreement in east Africa and North America, and we find that changing global temperatures and associated circulation patterns, as well as orbital forcing, are the dominant controls on global precipitation over this interval.
Yixuan Xie, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2561–2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2561-2024, 2024
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Desert dust plays a crucial role in the climate system; while it is relatively well studied for the present day, we still lack knowledge on how it was in the past and on its underlying mechanism in the multi-million-year timescale of Earth’s history. For the first time, we simulate dust emissions using the newly developed DUSTY1.0 model over the past 540 million years with a temporal resolution of ~5 million years. We find that palaeogeography is the primary control of these variations.
Violet L. Patterson, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Owen, Robin S. Smith, Oliver G. Pollard, Lachlan C. Astfalck, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 2191–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024, 2024
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Simulations of the last two glacial periods are run using a computer model in which the atmosphere and ice sheets interact. The results show that the initial conditions used in the simulations are the primary reason for the difference in simulated North American ice sheet volume between each period. Thus, the climate leading up to the glacial maxima and other factors, such as vegetation, are important contributors to the differences in the ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima.
Mohamed Ayache, Jean-Claude Dutay, Anne Mouchet, Kazuyo Tachikawa, Camille Risi, and Gilles Ramstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6627–6655, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6627-2024, 2024
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Water isotopes (δ18O, δD) are one of the most widely used proxies in ocean climate research. Previous studies using water isotope observations and modelling have highlighted the importance of understanding spatial and temporal isotopic variability for a quantitative interpretation of these tracers. Here we present the first results of a high-resolution regional dynamical model (at 1/12° horizontal resolution) developed for the Mediterranean Sea, one of the hotspots of ongoing climate change.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Tamsin L. Edwards, Oliver Pollard, and Robin S. Smith
Clim. Past, 20, 1489–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, 2024
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Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate–ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
Markus Adloff, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 20, 1233–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1233-2024, 2024
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an ocean current that transports heat into the North Atlantic. Over the ice age cycles, AMOC strength and its spatial pattern varied. We tested the role of heat forcing for these AMOC changes by simulating the temperature changes of the last eight glacial cycles. In our model, AMOC shifts between four distinct circulation modes caused by heat and salt redistributions that reproduce reconstructed long-term North Atlantic SST changes.
Lauren E. Burton, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, Erin L. McClymont, Sze Ling Ho, and Heather L. Ford
Clim. Past, 20, 1177–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1177-2024, 2024
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The Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) is of interest because its warm climate is similar to projections of the future. We explore the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide in forcing sea surface temperature during the Pliocene by combining climate model outputs with palaeoclimate proxy data. We investigate whether this role changes seasonally and also use our data to suggest a new estimate of Pliocene climate sensitivity. More data are needed to further explore the results presented.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, 2024
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Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) cause the Southern Ocean surface to become fresher and warmer, which affects the global ocean circulation. The CO2 concentration and the smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet both have a similar and approximately equal impact on the Southern Ocean. The conditions of the Southern Ocean in the mid-Pliocene could therefore be analogous to those in a future climate with smaller ice sheets.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
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Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
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Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Oliver G. Pollard, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Lauren J. Gregoire, Natalya Gomez, Víctor Cartelle, Jeremy C. Ely, and Lachlan C. Astfalck
The Cryosphere, 17, 4751–4777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, 2023
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We use advanced statistical techniques and a simple ice-sheet model to produce an ensemble of plausible 3D shapes of the ice sheet that once stretched across northern Europe during the previous glacial maximum (140,000 years ago). This new reconstruction, equivalent in volume to 48 ± 8 m of global mean sea-level rise, will improve the interpretation of high sea levels recorded from the Last Interglacial period (120 000 years ago) that provide a useful perspective on the future.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
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We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Xiaofang Huang, Shiling Yang, Alan Haywood, Julia Tindall, Dabang Jiang, Yongda Wang, Minmin Sun, and Shihao Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 731–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-731-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-731-2023, 2023
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The sensitivity of climate to the height changes of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) during the mid-Pliocene has been assessed using the HadCM3 model. The results show that the height reduction of the EAIS leads to a warmer and wetter East Antarctica. However, unintuitively, both the surface air temperature and the sea surface temperature decrease over the rest of the globe. These findings could provide insights into future changes caused by warming-induced decay of the Antarctic ice sheet.
Lauren E. Burton, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 747–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, 2023
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Warm climates of the Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) are similar to projections of the near future. We find elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide to be the most important forcing for driving changes in Pliocene surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation. However, changes caused by the nature of Pliocene ice sheets and orography are also important, affecting the extent to which we can use the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future.
Caitlyn R. Witkowski, Vittoria Lauretano, Alex Farnsworth, Shufeng Li, Shi-Hu Li, Jan Peter Mayser, B. David A. Naafs, Robert A. Spicer, Tao Su, He Tang, Zhe-Kun Zhou, Paul J. Valdes, and Richard D. Pancost
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-373, 2023
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Untangling the complex tectonic evolution in the Tibetan region can help us understand its impacts on climate, the Asian monsoon system, and the development of major biodiversity hotspots. We show that this “missing link” site between high elevation Tibet and low elevation coastal China had a dynamic environment but no temperature change, meaning its been at its current-day elevation for the past 34 million years.
James W. Marschalek, Edward Gasson, Tina van de Flierdt, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Martin J. Siegert, and Liam Holder
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-8, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Ice sheet models can help predict how Antarctica’s ice sheets respond to environmental change; such models benefit from comparison to geological data. Here, we use ice sheet model results, plus other data, to predict the erosion of Antarctic debris and trace its transport to where it is deposited on the ocean floor. This allows the results of ice sheet modelling to be directly and quantitively compared to real-world data, helping to reduce uncertainty regarding Antarctic sea level contribution.
Mohamed Ayache, Jean-Claude Dutay, Kazuyo Tachikawa, Thomas Arsouze, and Catherine Jeandel
Biogeosciences, 20, 205–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-205-2023, 2023
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The neodymium (Nd) is one of the most useful tracers to fingerprint water mass provenance. However, the use of Nd is hampered by the lack of adequate quantification of the external sources. Here, we present the first simulation of dissolved Nd concentration and Nd isotopic composition in the Mediterranean Sea using a high-resolution model. We aim to better understand how the various external sources affect the Nd cycle and particularly assess how it is impacted by atmospheric inputs.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
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We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
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To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Benjamin J. Stoker, Martin Margold, John C. Gosse, Alan J. Hidy, Alistair J. Monteath, Joseph M. Young, Niall Gandy, Lauren J. Gregoire, Sophie L. Norris, and Duane Froese
The Cryosphere, 16, 4865–4886, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4865-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4865-2022, 2022
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The Laurentide Ice Sheet was the largest ice sheet to grow and disappear in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glaciation. In northwestern Canada, it covered the Mackenzie Valley, blocking the migration of fauna and early humans between North America and Beringia and altering the drainage systems. We reconstruct the timing of ice sheet retreat in this region and the implications for the migration of early humans into North America, the drainage of glacial lakes, and past sea level rise.
Suzanne Robinson, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Lachlan Astfalck, Tina van de Flierdt, Yves Plancherel, Frerk Pöppelmeier, and Kazuyo Tachikawa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-937, 2022
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The neodymium (Nd) isotope (εNd) scheme in the ocean model of FAMOUS is used to explore a benthic Nd flux to seawater. Our results demonstrate that sluggish modern Pacific waters are sensitive to benthic flux alterations, whereas the well-ventilated North Atlantic displays a much weaker response. In closing, there are distinct regional differences in how seawater acquires its εNd signal, in part relating to the complex interactions of Nd addition and water advection.
Clara T. Bolton, Emmeline Gray, Wolfgang Kuhnt, Ann E. Holbourn, Julia Lübbers, Katharine Grant, Kazuyo Tachikawa, Gianluca Marino, Eelco J. Rohling, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, and Nils Andersen
Clim. Past, 18, 713–738, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-713-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-713-2022, 2022
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The timing of the initiation and evolution of the South Asian monsoon in the geological past is a subject of debate. Here, we present a new age model spanning the late Miocene (9 to 5 million years ago) and high-resolution records of past open-ocean biological productivity from the equatorial Indian Ocean that we interpret to reflect monsoon wind strength. Our data show no long-term intensification; however, strong orbital periodicities suggest insolation forcing of monsoon wind strength.
Molly O. Patterson, Richard H. Levy, Denise K. Kulhanek, Tina van de Flierdt, Huw Horgan, Gavin B. Dunbar, Timothy R. Naish, Jeanine Ash, Alex Pyne, Darcy Mandeno, Paul Winberry, David M. Harwood, Fabio Florindo, Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo, Andreas Läufer, Kyu-Cheul Yoo, Osamu Seki, Paolo Stocchi, Johann P. Klages, Jae Il Lee, Florence Colleoni, Yusuke Suganuma, Edward Gasson, Christian Ohneiser, José-Abel Flores, David Try, Rachel Kirkman, Daleen Koch, and the SWAIS 2C Science Team
Sci. Dril., 30, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022, 2022
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How much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt and how quickly it will happen when average global temperatures exceed 2 °C is currently unknown. Given the far-reaching and international consequences of Antarctica’s future contribution to global sea level rise, the SWAIS 2C Project was developed in order to better forecast the size and timing of future changes.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
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Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
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In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Charles J. R. Williams, Alistair A. Sellar, Xin Ren, Alan M. Haywood, Peter Hopcroft, Stephen J. Hunter, William H. G. Roberts, Robin S. Smith, Emma J. Stone, Julia C. Tindall, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 17, 2139–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, 2021
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Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from a simulation of the mid-Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) using the latest version of the UK’s climate model. The simulation reproduces temperatures as expected and shows some improvement relative to previous versions of the same model. The simulation is, however, arguably too warm when compared to other models and available observations.
Frerk Pöppelmeier, David J. Janssen, Samuel L. Jaccard, and Thomas F. Stocker
Biogeosciences, 18, 5447–5463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5447-2021, 2021
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Chromium (Cr) is a redox-sensitive element that holds promise as a tracer of ocean oxygenation and biological activity. We here implemented the oxidation states Cr(III) and Cr(VI) in the Bern3D model to investigate the processes that shape the global Cr distribution. We find a Cr ocean residence time of 5–8 kyr and that the benthic source dominates the tracer budget. Further, regional model–data mismatches suggest strong Cr removal in oxygen minimum zones and a spatially variable benthic source.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
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The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Paul J. Valdes, Christopher R. Scotese, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 17, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1483-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1483-2021, 2021
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Deep ocean temperatures are widely used as a proxy for global mean surface temperature in the past, but the underlying assumptions have not been tested. We use two unique sets of 109 climate model simulations for the last 545 million years to show that the relationship is valid for approximately the last 100 million years but breaks down for older time periods when the continents (and hence ocean circulation) are in very different positions.
Daniel J. Lunt, Deepak Chandan, Alan M. Haywood, George M. Lunt, Jonathan C. Rougier, Ulrich Salzmann, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4307–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, 2021
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Often in science we carry out experiments with computers in which several factors are explored, for example, in the field of climate science, how the factors of greenhouse gases, ice, and vegetation affect temperature. We can explore the relative importance of these factors by
swapping in and outdifferent values of these factors, and can also carry out experiments with many different combinations of these factors. This paper discusses how best to analyse the results from such experiments.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Frerk Pöppelmeier, Jeemijn Scheen, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 615–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-615-2021, 2021
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The stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) critically depends on its mean state. We simulate the response of the AMOC to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations under different glacial boundary conditions. We find that a closed Bering Strait greatly increases the AMOC's sensitivity to freshwater hosing. Further, the shift from mono- to bistability strongly depends on the chosen boundary conditions, with weaker circulation states exhibiting more abrupt transitions.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Ocean Sci., 17, 319–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-319-2021, 2021
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Environmental issues arising due to coastal modification and future sea level scenarios are a major environmental hazard facing the Maldives today. Here, we carry out high-resolution tidal modelling of a Maldivian atoll for the first time and show that coastal modification in the island scale is capable of driving large-scale change in the wider atoll basin in a short time, comparable to that of long-term sea level rise scenarios and on par with observations.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Abdul Malik, Peer J. Nowack, Joanna D. Haigh, Long Cao, Luqman Atique, and Yves Plancherel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15461–15485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15461-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15461-2020, 2020
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Solar geoengineering has been introduced to mitigate human-caused global warming by reflecting sunlight back into space. This research investigates the impact of solar geoengineering on the tropical Pacific climate. We find that solar geoengineering can compensate some of the greenhouse-induced changes in the tropical Pacific but not all. In particular, solar geoengineering will result in significant changes in rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and increased frequency of extreme ENSO events.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
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The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Andy R. Emery, David M. Hodgson, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Jonathan L. Carrivick, Carol J. Cotterill, Janet C. Richardson, Ruza F. Ivanovic, and Claire L. Mellett
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 869–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-869-2020, 2020
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During the last ice age, sea level was lower, and the North Sea was land. The margin of a large ice sheet was at Dogger Bank in the North Sea. This ice sheet formed large rivers. After the ice sheet retreated down from the high point of Dogger Bank, the rivers had no water supply and dried out. Increased precipitation during the 15 000 years of land exposure at Dogger Bank formed a new drainage network. This study shows how glaciation and climate changes can control how drainage networks evolve.
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Short summary
We present the implementation of neodymium (Nd) isotopes into the ocean model of FAMOUS (Nd v1.0). Nd fluxes from seafloor sediment and incorporation of Nd onto sinking particles represent the major global sources and sinks, respectively. However, model–data mismatch in the North Pacific and northern North Atlantic suggest that certain reactive components of the sediment interact the most with seawater. Our results are important for interpreting Nd isotopes in terms of ocean circulation.
We present the implementation of neodymium (Nd) isotopes into the ocean model of FAMOUS (Nd...
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