Articles | Volume 15, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8809-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8809-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
09 Dec 2022
Development and technical paper |
| 09 Dec 2022
| 09 Dec 2022
Inclusion of a cold hardening scheme to represent frost tolerance is essential to model realistic plant hydraulics in the Arctic–boreal zone in CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro
Marius S. A. Lambert
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0315 Oslo, Norway
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0315 Oslo, Norway
Geo-Ecology Research Group, Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, 0562 Oslo, Norway
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Climate System Research, Helsinki, Finland
Kjetil S. Aas
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0315 Oslo, Norway
CICERO – Center for International Climate Research, 0318 Oslo, Norway
Frode Stordal
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0315 Oslo, Norway
Rosie A. Fisher
CICERO – Center for International Climate Research, 0318 Oslo, Norway
Yilin Fang
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Junyan Ding
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0315 Oslo, Norway
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Related authors
No articles found.
Chang Liao, L. Ruby Leung, Yilin Fang, Teklu Tesfa, and Robinson Negron-Juarez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4601–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4601-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4601-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding horizontal groundwater flow is important for understanding how water moves through the ground. Current climate models often simplify this process because they do not have information about the land surface that is detailed enough. Our study developed a new model that divides the land surface into hillslopes to better represent how groundwater flows. This model can help improve predictions of water availability and how it affects ecosystems.
Chang Liao, Darren Engwirda, Matthew G. Cooper, Mingke Li, and Yilin Fang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2035-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2035-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Discrete global grid systems, or DGGS, are digital frameworks that help us organize information about our planet. Although scientists have used DGGS in areas like weather and nature, using them in the water cycle has been challenging because some core datasets are missing. We created a way to generate these datasets. We then developed the datasets in the Amazon and Yukon basins, which play important roles in our planet's climate. These datasets may help us improve our water cycle models.
Junyan Ding, Nate McDowell, Vanessa Bailey, Nate Conroy, Donnie J. Day, Yilin Fang, Kenneth M. Kemner, Matthew L. Kirwan, Charlie D. Koven, Matthew Kovach, Patrick Megonigal, Kendalynn A. Morris, Teri O’Meara, Stephanie C. Pennington, Roberta B. Peixoto, Peter Thornton, Mike Weintraub, Peter Regier, Leticia Sandoval, Fausto Machado-Silva, Alice Stearns, Nick Ward, and Stephanie J. Wilson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1544, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used a vegetation model to study why coastal forests are dying due to rising water levels and what happens to the ecosystem when marshes take over. We found that tree death is mainly caused by water-damaged roots, leading to major changes in the environment, such as reduced water use and carbon storage. Our study helps explain how coastal ecosystems are shifting and offers new ideas to explore in future field research.
Christian Poppe Terán, Bibi S. Naz, Harry Vereecken, Roland Baatz, Rosie A. Fisher, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 287–317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon and water exchanges between the atmosphere and the land surface contribute to water resource availability and climate change mitigation. Land surface models, like the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5), simulate these. This study finds that CLM5 and other data sets underestimate the magnitudes of and variability in carbon and water exchanges for the most abundant plant functional types compared to observations. It provides essential insights for further research into these processes.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Junyan Ding, Polly Buotte, Roger Bales, Bradley Christoffersen, Rosie A. Fisher, Michael Goulden, Ryan Knox, Lara Kueppers, Jacquelyn Shuman, Chonggang Xu, and Charles D. Koven
Biogeosciences, 20, 4491–4510, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4491-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a vegetation model to investigate how the different combinations of plant rooting depths and the sensitivity of leaves and stems to drying lead to differential responses of a pine forest to drought conditions in California, USA. We found that rooting depths are the strongest control in that ecosystem. Deep roots allow trees to fully utilize the soil water during a normal year but result in prolonged depletion of soil moisture during a severe drought and hence a high tree mortality risk.
Chonggang Xu, Bradley Christoffersen, Zachary Robbins, Ryan Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Rutuja Chitra-Tarak, Martijn Slot, Kurt Solander, Lara Kueppers, Charles Koven, and Nate McDowell
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6267–6283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a plant hydrodynamic model for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES). To better understand this new model system and its functionality in tropical forest ecosystems, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We identified the key parameters that affect the simulated plant hydrodynamics to guide both modeling and field campaign studies.
Lingcheng Li, Yilin Fang, Zhonghua Zheng, Mingjie Shi, Marcos Longo, Charles D. Koven, Jennifer A. Holm, Rosie A. Fisher, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey Chambers, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4017–4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately modeling plant coexistence in vegetation demographic models like ELM-FATES is challenging. This study proposes a repeatable method that uses machine-learning-based surrogate models to optimize plant trait parameters in ELM-FATES. Our approach significantly improves plant coexistence modeling, thus reducing errors. It has important implications for modeling ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Astrid Vatne, Andrea L. Popp, Peter Horvath, Anders Bryn, Ane Victoria Vollsnes, Sebastian Westermann, Terje Koren Berntsen, Frode Stordal, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2031–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We measured the land–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and water vapor in alpine Norway over 3 years. The extremely snow-rich conditions in 2020 reduced the total annual evapotranspiration to 50 % and reduced the growing-season carbon assimilation to turn the ecosystem from a moderate annual carbon sink to an even stronger source. Our analysis suggests that snow cover anomalies are driving the most consequential short-term responses in this ecosystem’s functioning.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Charles D. Koven, Gautam Bisht, Matteo Detto, Yanyan Cheng, Nate McDowell, Helene Muller-Landau, S. Joseph Wright, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7879–7901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7879-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a model that integrates an Earth system model with a three-dimensional hydrology model to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and water flow underneath the land surface to understand how local-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients. Our coupled model can be used to improve the understanding of the diverse impact of local heterogeneity and water flux on nutrient availability and plant communities.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Ryan Knox, Charlie Koven, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6385–6398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accounting for water movement in the soil and water transport within the plant is important for plant growth in Earth system modeling. We implemented different numerical approaches for a plant hydrodynamic model and compared their impacts on the simulated aboveground biomass (AGB) at single points and globally. We found care should be taken when discretizing the number of soil layers for numerical simulations as it can significantly affect AGB if accuracy and computational costs are of concern.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Yunxiang Chen, Jie Bao, Yilin Fang, William A. Perkins, Huiying Ren, Xuehang Song, Zhuoran Duan, Zhangshuan Hou, Xiaoliang He, and Timothy D. Scheibe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2917–2947, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change affects river discharge variations that alter streamflow. By integrating multi-type survey data with a computational fluid dynamics tool, OpenFOAM, we show a workflow that enables accurate and efficient streamflow modeling at 30 km and 5-year scales. The model accuracy for water stage and depth average velocity is −16–9 cm and 0.71–0.83 in terms of mean error and correlation coefficients. This accuracy indicates the model's reliability for evaluating climate impact on rivers.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kathleen Savage, Sara June Connon, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Darcy Peter, Christina Minions, Julia Nojeim, Roisin Commane, Craig A. Emmerton, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Hiroki Iwata, Hideki Kobayashi, Pasi Kolari, Efrén López-Blanco, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Lutz Merbold, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Oliver Sonnentag, Masahito Ueyama, Carolina Voigt, Mika Aurela, Julia Boike, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Eugenie Euskirchen, Achim Grelle, Juha Hatakka, Elyn Humphreys, Järvi Järveoja, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Yojiro Matsuura, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sang-Jong Park, Roman Petrov, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Christopher Schulze, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, William Quinton, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, and Viacheslav I. Zyryanov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 179–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of climate warming on carbon cycling across the Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) remain poorly understood due to the relatively limited distribution of ABZ flux sites. Fortunately, this flux network is constantly increasing, but new measurements are published in various platforms, making it challenging to understand the ABZ carbon cycle as a whole. Here, we compiled a new database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes to help facilitate large-scale assessments of the ABZ carbon cycle.
Thorben Dunse, Kaixing Dong, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Leif Christian Stige
Biogeosciences, 19, 271–294, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-271-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the effect of glacier meltwater on phytoplankton dynamics in Svalbard. Phytoplankton forms the basis of the marine food web, and its seasonal dynamics depend on the availability of light and nutrients, both of which are affected by glacier runoff. We use satellite ocean color, an indicator of phytoplankton biomass, and glacier mass balance modeling to find that the overall effect of glacier runoff on marine productivity is positive within the major fjord systems of Svalbard.
David Olefeldt, Mikael Hovemyr, McKenzie A. Kuhn, David Bastviken, Theodore J. Bohn, John Connolly, Patrick Crill, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Sarah A. Finkelstein, Hélène Genet, Guido Grosse, Lorna I. Harris, Liam Heffernan, Manuel Helbig, Gustaf Hugelius, Ryan Hutchins, Sari Juutinen, Mark J. Lara, Avni Malhotra, Kristen Manies, A. David McGuire, Susan M. Natali, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Aleksi Räsänen, Christina Schädel, Oliver Sonnentag, Maria Strack, Suzanne E. Tank, Claire Treat, Ruth K. Varner, Tarmo Virtanen, Rebecca K. Warren, and Jennifer D. Watts
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5127–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5127-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands, lakes, and rivers are important sources of the greenhouse gas methane to the atmosphere. To understand current and future methane emissions from northern regions, we need maps that show the extent and distribution of specific types of wetlands, lakes, and rivers. The Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD) provides maps of five wetland types, seven lake types, and three river types for northern regions and will improve our ability to predict future methane emissions.
Stefanie Falk, Ane V. Vollsnes, Aud B. Eriksen, Lisa Emberson, Connie O'Neill, Frode Stordal, and Terje Koren Berntsen
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-260, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-260, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Subarctic vegetation is threatened by climate change and ozone. We assess essential climate variables in 2018/19. 2018 was warmer and brighter than usual in Spring with forest fires and elevated ozone in summer. Visible damage was observed on plant species in 2018. We find that generic parameterizations used in modeling ozone dose do not suffice. We propose a method to acclimate these parameterizations and find an ozone-induced biomass loss of 2.5 to 17.4 % (up to 6 % larger than default).
Alexandra Pongracz, David Wårlind, Paul A. Miller, and Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Biogeosciences, 18, 5767–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that the introduction of a multi-layer snow scheme in the LPJ-GUESS DGVM improved simulations of high-latitude soil temperature dynamics and permafrost extent compared to observations. In addition, these improvements led to shifts in carbon fluxes that contrasted within and outside of the permafrost region. Our results show that a realistic snow scheme is essential to accurately simulate snow–soil–vegetation relationships and carbon–climate feedbacks.
Stefanie Falk, Ane V. Vollsnes, Aud B. Eriksen, Frode Stordal, and Terje Koren Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15647–15661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15647-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15647-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate regional and global models for ozone modeling and damage risk mapping of vegetation over subarctic Europe. Our analysis suggests that low-resolution global models do not reproduce the observed ozone seasonal cycle at ground level, underestimating ozone by 30–50 %. High-resolution regional models capture the seasonal cycle well, still underestimating ozone by up to 20 %. Our proposed gap-filling method for site observations shows a 76 % accuracy compared to the regional model (80 %).
Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Lennart Nilsen, Hans Tømmervik, and Elisabeth J. Cooper
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3593–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3593-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellites provide a global overview of Earth's ecosystems, but they have coarse resolutions and low revisit times. Small-scale vegetation patterns and sudden shifts in plant growth can easily be missed. In this paper, we show how to fill these gaps with vegetation indices obtained with ordinary time-lapse cameras deployed across a valley on Svalbard. We show how to adjust for unwanted camera movement and that vegetation indices from ordinary cameras compare well to those used by satellites.
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 3423–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in nature and help us understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Peter Horvath, Hui Tang, Rune Halvorsen, Frode Stordal, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Terje Koren Berntsen, and Anders Bryn
Biogeosciences, 18, 95–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-95-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-95-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the performance of three methods for representing vegetation cover. Remote sensing provided the best match to a reference dataset, closely followed by distribution modelling (DM), whereas the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) in CLM4.5BGCDV deviated strongly from the reference. Sensitivity tests show that use of threshold values for predictors identified by DM may improve DGVM performance. The results highlight the potential of using DM in the development of DGVMs.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 4611–4626, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) is developed as novel progress in modeling permafrost thaw and its impacts under the warming climate. The modeled permafrost degradation with sub-grid excess ice follows the pathway that continuous permafrost transforms into discontinuous permafrost before it disappears, including surface subsidence and talik formation, which are highly permafrost-relevant landscape changes excluded from most land models.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Cited articles
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Gonzales, P., Hogg, T., Rigling, A., and Breshears, D.:
Climate-induced forest mortality: a global overview of emerging risks, Forest Ecol. Manag., 259, 660–684, 2010.
Arora, R. and Rowland, L. J.:
Physiological research on winter-hardiness: deacclimation resistance, reacclimation ability, photoprotection strategies, and a cold acclimation protocol design, HortScience, 46, 1070–1078, 2011.
Ball, J. T., Woodrow, I. E., and Berry, J. A.: A Model Predicting Stomatal Conductance and its Contribution to the Control of Photosynthesis under Different Environmental Conditions, in: Progress in Photosynthesis Research, edited by: Biggins, J., Springer, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-0519-6_48, 1987.
Bansal, S., Harrington, C. A., and St. Clair, J. B.:
Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: A case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness, Ecol. Evol., 6, 2074–2083, 2016.
Bartlett, M. K., Scoffoni, C., and Sack, L.:
The determinants of leaf turgor loss point and prediction of drought tolerance of species and biomes: a global meta-analysis, Ecol. Lett., 15, 393–405, 2012.
Beck, E. H., Heim, R., and Hansen, J.: Plant resistance to cold stress: mechanisms and environmental signals triggering frost hardening and dehardening, J. Bioscience., 29, 449–459, 2004.
Beck, E. H., Fettig, S., Knake, C., Hartig, K., and Bhattarai, T.:
Specific and unspecific responses of plants to cold and drought stress, J. Bioscience., 32, 501–510, 2007.
Bigras, F. J. and Colombo, S. J.:
Conifer cold hardiness, edited by: Bigras, F. J. and Colombo S. J., Springer Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9650-3, 2013.
Bonan, G. B., Williams, M., Fisher, R. A., and Oleson, K. W.:
Modeling stomatal conductance in the earth system: linking leaf water-use efficiency and water transport along the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2193–2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2193-2014, 2014.
Campbell, G. S.:
A simple method for determining unsaturated conductivity from moisture retention data, Soil Sci., 117, 311–314, 1974.
Carminati, A., Vetterlein, D., Weller, U., Vogel, H.-J., and Oswald, S. E.: When roots lose contact, Vadose Zone J., 8, 805–809, 2009.
Chang, C. Y.-Y., Bräutigam, K., Hüner, N. P., and Ensminger, I.:
Champions of winter survival: cold acclimation and molecular regulation of cold hardiness in evergreen conifers, New Phytol., 229, 675–691, 2021.
Chinnusamy, V., Zhu, J., and Zhu, J.-K.: Gene regulation during cold acclimation in plants, Physiol. Plantarum, 126, 52–61, 2006.
Christersson, L.:
The transpiration rate of unhardened, hardened, and dehardened seedlings of spruce and pine, Physiol. Plantarum, 26, 258–263, 1972.
Christoffersen, B. O., Gloor, M., Fauset, S., Fyllas, N. M., Galbraith, D. R., Baker, T. R., Kruijt, B., Rowland, L., Fisher, R. A., Binks, O. J., Sevanto, S., Xu, C., Jansen, S., Choat, B., Mencuccini, M., McDowell, N. G., and Meir, P.:
Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4227–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4227-2016, 2016.
Clapp, R. B. and Hornberger, G. M.:
Empirical equations for some soil hydraulic properties, Water Resour. Res., 14, 601–604, 1978.
CTSM Development Team: mariuslam/PAPER1_CTSM: PAPER1_CTSM (Version V1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6559825, 2022. a
Darcy, H.:
Les fontaines publiques de la ville de Dijon: exposition et application…, Victor Dalmont, Paris, France, 1856.
de Villemereuil, P., Gaggiotti, O. E., Mouterde, M., and Till-Bottraud, I.:
Common garden experiments in the genomic era: new perspectives and opportunities, Heredity, 116, 249–254, 2016.
Ding, Y., Zhang, Y., Zheng, Q.-S., and Tyree, M. T.:
Pressure–volume curves: revisiting the impact of negative turgor during cell collapse by literature review and simulations of cell micromechanics, New Phytol., 203, 378–387, 2014.
Dowgert, M. F. and Steponkus, P. L.:
Behavior of the plasma membrane of isolated protoplasts during a freeze-thaw cycle, Plant Physiol., 75, 1139–1151, 1984.
Duursma, R. A. and Medlyn, B. E.:
MAESPA: a model to study interactions between water limitation, environmental drivers and vegetation function at tree and stand levels, with an example application to [CO2] × drought interactions, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 919–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-919-2012, 2012.
Duursma, R. A., Blackman, C. J., Lopéz, R., Martin-StPaul, N. K., Cochard, H., and Medlyn, B. E.:
On the minimum leaf conductance: its role in models of plant water use, and ecological and environmental controls, New Phytol., 221, 693–705, 2019.
Edwards, W. R. N., Jarvis, P. G., Landsberg, J. J., and Talbot, H.:
A dynamic model for studying flow of water in single trees, Tree Physiol., 1, 309–324, 1986.
FATES Development Team: The Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (Version v1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6559840, 2022. a
Fisher, R. A., Muszala, S., Verteinstein, M., Lawrence, P., Xu, C., McDowell, N. G., Knox, R. G., Koven, C., Holm, J., Rogers, B. M., Spessa, A., Lawrence, D., and Bonan, G.: Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes, CLM4.5(ED), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015.
Fontes, C.:
Tropical plant hydraulics in a changing climate: importance for species distribution and vulnerability to drought, University of California, Berkeley, 2019.
Fricke, W.:
Turgor pressure, in: eLS, Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470015902.a0001687.pub2, 2017.
Greenwood, S., Ruiz-Benito, P., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Lloret, F., Kitzberger, T., Allen, C. D., Fensham, R., Laughlin, D. C., Kattge, J., and Bönisch, G.:
Tree mortality across biomes is promoted by drought intensity, lower wood density and higher specific leaf area, Ecol. Lett., 20, 539–553, 2017.
Greer, D. H. and Warrington, I. J.:
Effect of photoperiod, night temperature, and frost incidence on development of frost hardiness in Pinus radiata, Funct. Plant Biol., 9, 333–342, 1982.
Gusta, L. V., Trischuk, R., and Weiser, C. J.:
Plant cold acclimation: the role of abscisic acid, J. Plant Growth Regul., 24, 308–318, 2005.
Hamada, S., Ohta, T., Hiyama, T., Kuwada, T., Takahashi, A., and Maximov, T. C.:
Hydrometeorological behaviour of pine and larch forests in eastern Siberia, Hydrol. Process., 18, 23–39, 2004.
Hanin, M., Brini, F., Ebel, C., Toda, Y., Takeda, S., and Masmoudi, K.: Plant dehydrins and stress tolerance: versatile proteins for complex mechanisms, Plant Signaling & Behavior, 6, 1503–1509, 2011.
Hartmann, H.:
Carbon starvation during drought-induced tree mortality–are we chasing a myth?, Journal of Plant Hydraulics, 2, e005, https://doi.org/10.20870/jph.2015.e005, 2015.
Havranek, W. M. and Tranquillini, W.:
Physiological processes during winter dormancy and their ecological significance, in: Ecophysiology of coniferous forests, edited by: Smith, W. K. and Hinckley, T. M., Elsevier, 95–124, ISBN 9780080925936, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-092593-6.50010-4, 1995.
Isaev, A. P., Protopopov, A. V., Protopopova, V. V., Egorova, A. A., Timofeyev, P. A., Nikolaev, A. N., Shurduk, I. F., Lytkina, L. P., Ermakov, N. B., and Nikitina, N. V.:
Vegetation of Yakutia: Elements of Ecology and Plant Sociology, in: The Far North. Plant and Vegetation, vol 3., edited by: Troeva, E., Isaev, A., Cherosov, M., and Karpov, N., Springer, Dordrecht, 143–260, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3774-9_3, 2010.
James, A. T., Lawn, R. J., and Cooper, M.:
Genotypic variation for drought stress response traits in soybean. I. Variation in soybean and wild Glycine spp. for epidermal conductance, osmotic potential, and relative water content, Aust. J. Agr. Res., 59, 656–669, 2008.
Janská, A., Maršík, P., Zelenková, S., and Ovesná, J.: Cold stress and acclimation – what is important for metabolic adjustment?, Plant Biol., 12, 395–405, 2010.
Jarvis, P. G. and Morison, J. I. L.:
The control of transpiration and photosynthesis by the stomata, in: Stomatal physiology, vol. 8, edited by: Jarvis, P. G. and Mansfield, T. A., Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK, 247–279, ISBN 0-521-23683-5 (hard cover), ISBN 0-521-23151-2 (paperback), 1981.
Jönsson, A. M., Linderson, M.-L., Stjernquist, I., Schlyter, P., and Bärring, L.:
Climate change and the effect of temperature backlashes causing frost damage in Picea abies, Global Planet. Change, 44, 195–207, 2004.
Kellomaki, S., Hanninen, H., and Kolstrom, M.:
Computations on frost damage to Scots pine under climatic warming in boreal conditions, Ecol. Appl., 5, 42–52, 1995.
Kennedy, D., Swenson, S., Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R., Lola da Costa, A. C., and Gentine, P.:
Implementing plant hydraulics in the community land model, version 5, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 485–513, 2019.
Knipfer, T., Besse, M., Verdeil, J.-L., and Fricke, W.: Aquaporin-facilitated water uptake in barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) roots, J. Exp. Bot., 62, 4115–4126, 2011.
Koven, C.:
FATES Parameters and Output for Parameter Sensitivity at the Panama Barro Colorado Island Testbed, Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments Tropics; Lawrence Berkeley National, USA, https://doi.org/10.15486/ngt/1569647, 2019.
Kreszies, T., Shellakkutti, N., Osthoff, A., Yu, P., Baldauf, J. A., Zeisler-Diehl, V. V., Ranathunge, K., Hochholdinger, F., and Schreiber, L.: Osmotic stress enhances suberization of apoplastic barriers in barley seminal roots: analysis of chemical, transcriptomic and physiological responses, New Phytol., 221, 180–194, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15351, 2019.
Krivosheeva, A., Tao, D.-L., Ottander, C., Wingsle, G., Dube, S. L., and Öquist, G.:
Cold acclimation and photoinhibition of photosynthesis in Scots pine, Planta, 200, 296–305, 1996.
Kuprian, E., Koch, S., Munkler, C., Resnyak, A., Buchner, O., Oberhammer, M., and Neuner, G.:
Does winter desiccation account for seasonal increases in supercooling capacity of Norway spruce bud primordia?, Tree Physiol., 38, 591–601, 2018.
Kursar, T. A., Engelbrecht, B. M., Burke, A., Tyree, M. T., EI Omari, B., and Giraldo, J. P.:
Tolerance to low leaf water status of tropical tree seedlings is related to drought performance and distribution, Funct. Ecol., 23, 93–102, 2009.
Lambert, M.: PAPER1: cold hardening scheme, Norstore [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2022.00028, 2022. a
Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., et al.: The Community Land Model version 5: Description of new features, benchmarking, and impact of forcing uncertainty, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4245–4287, 2019.
Lee, S., Chung, G. C., and Steudle, E.: Low temperature and mechanical stresses differently gate aquaporins of root cortical cells of chilling-sensitive cucumber and-resistant figleaf gourd, Plant Cell Environ., 28, 1191–1202, 2005.
Levitt, J.: Responses of Plants to Environmental Stress, Volume 1: Chilling, Freezing, and High Temperature Stresses, Academic Press, ISBN 9780124455016, 1980.
Li, C., Junttila, O., and Palva, E. T.: Environmental regulation and physiological basis of freezing tolerance in woody plants, Acta Physiol. Plant., 26, 213–222, 2004.
Lopez-Iglesias, B., Villar, R., and Poorter, L.:
Functional traits predict drought performance and distribution of Mediterranean woody species, Acta Oecol., 56, 10–18, 2014.
Mabaso, F., Ham, H., and Nel, A.:
Frost tolerance of various Pinus pure species and hybrids, South. Forests, 81, 273–280, 2019.
Manzoni, S., Vico, G., Katul, G., Palmroth, S., Jackson, R. B., and Porporato, A.:
Hydraulic limits on maximum plant transpiration and the emergence of the safety–efficiency trade-off, New Phytol., 198, 169–178, 2013.
Mart, K. B., Veneklaas, E. J., and Bramley, H.:
Osmotic potential at full turgor: an easily measurable trait to help breeders select for drought tolerance in wheat, Plant Breeding, 135, 279–285, 2016.
McDowell, N., Pockman, W. T., Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., Cobb, N., Kolb, T., Plaut, J., Sperry, J., West, A., Williams, D. G., and Yepez, E. A.: Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?, New Phytol., 178, 719–739, 2008.
McDowell, N. G. and Sevanto, S.:
The mechanisms of carbon starvation: how, when, or does it even occur at all?, New Phytol., 186, 264–266, 2010.
Mirfenderesgi, G., Bohrer, G., Matheny, A. M., Fatichi, S., de Moraes Frasson, R. P., and Schäfer, K. V.:
Tree level hydrodynamic approach for resolving aboveground water storage and stomatal conductance and modeling the effects of tree hydraulic strategy, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 121, 1792–1813, 2016.
Muñoz Sabater, J.: ERA5-Land hourly data from 1981 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac, 2019.
Nadezhdina, N., David, T. S., David, J. S., Ferreira, M. I., Dohnal, M., Tesař, M., Gartner, K., Leitgeb, E., Nadezhdin, V., Cermak, J., Soledad Jimenez, M., and Morales, D.: Trees never rest: the multiple facets of hydraulic redistribution, Ecohydrology, 3, 431–444, 2010.
Navarro, M. Á. P., Sapes, G., Batllori, E., Serra-Diaz, J. M., Esteve, M. A., and Lloret, F.:
Climatic suitability derived from species distribution models captures community responses to an extreme drought episode, Ecosystems, 22, 77–90, 2019.
North, G. B. and Nobel, P. S.: Hydraulic conductivity of concentric root tissues of Agave deserti Engelm. under wet and drying conditions, New Phytol., 130, 47–57, 1995.
North, G. B. and Nobel, P. S.: Root-soil contact for the desert succulent Agave deserti in wet and drying soil, New Phytol., 135, 21–29, 1997.
Oberschelp, G. P. J., Guarnaschelli, A. B., Teson, N., Harrand, L., Podestá, F. E., and Margarit, E.:
Cold acclimation and freezing tolerance in three Eucalyptus species: A metabolomic and proteomic approach, Plant Physiol. Bioch., 154, 316–327, 2020.
Oliveira, R. S., Dawson, T. E., Burgess, S. S., and Nepstad, D. C.:
Hydraulic redistribution in three Amazonian trees, Oecologia, 145, 354–363, 2005.
Petrov, K. A., Sofronova, V. E., Bubyakina, V. V., Perk, A. A., Tatarinova, T. D., Ponomarev, A. G., Chepalov, V. A., Okhlopkova, Z. M., Vasilieva, I. V., and Maximov, T. C.:
Woody plants of Yakutia and low-temperature stress, Russ. J. Plant Physl.+, 58, 1011–1019, 2011.
Prieto, I., Armas, C., and Pugnaire, F. I.:
Water release through plant roots: new insights into its consequences at the plant and ecosystem level, New Phytol., 193, 830–841, 2012.
Rammig, A., Jönsson, A. M., Hickler, T., Smith, B., Bärring, L., and Sykes, M. T.:
Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model, Ecol. Model., 221, 303–313, 2010.
Rasztovits, E., Berki, I., Mátyás, C., Czimber, K., Pötzelsberger, E., and Móricz, N.:
The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit, Ann For. Sci., 71, 201–210, 2014.
Repo, T. and Pelkonen, P.:
Temperature step response of dehardening in Pinus sylvestris seedlings, Scand. J. Forest Res., 1, 271–284, 1986.
Rinne, P., Welling, A., and Kaikuranta, P.: Onset of freezing tolerance in birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) involves LEA proteins and osmoregulation and is impaired in an ABA‐deficient genotype, Plant Cell Environ., 21, 601–611, 1998.
Sakai, A.:
Comparative study on freezing resistance of conifers with special reference to cold adaptation and its evolutive aspects, Can. J. Botany, 61, 2323–2332, 1983.
Sala, A.:
Lack of direct evidence for the carbon-starvation hypothesis to explain drought-induced mortality in trees, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, E68–E68, 2009.
Sato, H., Kobayashi, H., and Delbart, N.:
Simulation study of the vegetation structure and function in eastern Siberian larch forests using the individual-based vegetation model SEIB-DGVM, Forest Ecol. Manag., 259, 301–311, 2010.
Savitch, L. V., Leonardos, E. D., Krol, M., Jansson, S., Grodzinski, B., Huner, N. P. A., and Öquist, G.:
Two different strategies for light utilization in photosynthesis in relation to growth and cold acclimation, Plant Cell Environ., 25, 761–771, 2002.
Scholz, F. G., Bucci, S. J., Arias, N., Meinzer, F. C., and Goldstein, G.:
Osmotic and elastic adjustments in cold desert shrubs differing in rooting depth: coping with drought and subzero temperatures, Oecologia, 170, 885–897, 2012.
Shi, Y., Ding, Y., and Yang, S.:
Molecular regulation of CBF signaling in cold acclimation, Trends Plant Sci., 23, 623–637, 2018.
Shin, H., Oh, Y., and Kim, D.:
Differences in cold hardiness, carbohydrates, dehydrins and related gene expressions under an experimental deacclimation and reacclimation in Prunus persica, Physiol. Plantarum, 154, 485–499, https://doi.org/10.1111/ppl.12293, 2015.
Smit-Spinks, B., Swanson, B. T., and Markhart, A. I.:
Changes in water relations, water flux, and root exudate abscisic acid content with cold acclimation of Pinus sylvestris L, Funct. Plant Biol., 11, 431–441, 1984.
Sperry, J., Adler, F., Campbell, G., and Comstock, J.:
Limitation of plant water use by rhizosphere and xylem conductance: results from a model, Plant Cell Environ., 21, 347–359, 1998.
Sperry, J. S., Venturas, M. D., Anderegg, W. R., Mencuccini, M., Mackay, D. S., Wang, Y., and Love, D. M.:
Predicting stomatal responses to the environment from the optimization of photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost, Plant Cell Environ., 40, 816–830, 2017.
Steponkus, P. L.:
Role of the plasma membrane in freezing injury and cold acclimation, Annu. Rev. Plant Physio., 35, 543–584, 1984.
Stitt, M. and Hurry, V.:
A plant for all seasons: alterations in photosynthetic carbon metabolism during cold acclimation in Arabidopsis, Curr. Opin. Plant Biol., 5, 199–206, 2002.
Sugimoto, A., Yanagisawa, N., Naito, D., Fujita, N., and Maximov, T. C.:
Importance of permafrost as a source of water for plants in east Siberian taiga, Ecol. Res., 17, 493–503, 2002.
Tatarinova, T. D., Perk, A. A., Bubyakina, V. V., Vasilieva, I. V., Ponomarev, A. G., and Maximov, T. C.:
Dehydrin stress proteins in Pinus sylvestris L. needles under conditions of extreme climate of Yakutia, Dokl. Biochem. Biophys., 98–101, 2017.
Tyree, M. T. and Hammel, H. T.:
The measurement of the turgor pressure and the water relations of plants by the pressure-bomb technique, J. Exp. Bot., 23, 267–282, 1972.
Tyree, M. T., Engelbrecht, B. M., Vargas, G., and Kursar, T. A.:
Desiccation tolerance of five tropical seedlings in Panama. Relationship to a field assessment of drought performance, Plant Physiol., 132, 1439–1447, 2003.
Valentini, R., Mugnozza, G. S., Giordano, E., and Kuzminsky, E.:
Influence of cold hardening on water relations of three Eucalyptus species, Tree Physiol., 6, 1–10, 1990.
Volaire, F.:
A unified framework of plant adaptive strategies to drought: crossing scales and disciplines, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 2929–2938, 2018.
Welling, A. and Palva, E. T.: Molecular control of cold acclimation in trees, Physiol. Plantarum, 127, 167–181, 2006.
Williams, M., Bond, B. J., and Ryan, M. G.:
Evaluating different soil and plant hydraulic constraints on tree function using a model and sap flow data from ponderosa pine, Plant Cell Environ., 24, 679–690, 2001.
Wisniewski, M., Nassuth, A., and Arora, R.: Cold Hardiness in Trees: A Mini-Review, Front. Plant Sci., 9, 1394, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2018.01394, 2018.
Xu, C., Christoffersen, B., Knox, R., Wolfe, B., Wei, L., Chitra-Tarak, R., Slot, M., Fisher, R., Kueppers, L. M., and Chambers, J.:
The Importance of Hydraulic Traits to Tropical Forest Dynamics, in: AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, B127-05, 2020.
Xu, X., Medvigy, D., Powers, J. S., Becknell, J. M., and Guan, K.:
Diversity in plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests, New Phytol., 212, 80–95, 2016.
Ye, Q. and Steudle, E.: Oxidative gating of water channels (aquaporins) in corn roots, Plant Cell Environ., 29, 459–470, 2006.
Short summary
In this study, we implement a hardening mortality scheme into CTSM5.0-FATES-Hydro and evaluate how it impacts plant hydraulics and vegetation growth. Our work shows that the hydraulic modifications prescribed by the hardening scheme are necessary to model realistic vegetation growth in cold climates, in contrast to the default model that simulates almost nonexistent and declining vegetation due to abnormally large water loss through the roots.
In this study, we implement a hardening mortality scheme into CTSM5.0-FATES-Hydro and evaluate...
