Articles | Volume 15, issue 20
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022
Development and technical paper
28 Oct 2022
Development and technical paper | 28 Oct 2022

A new bootstrap technique to quantify uncertainty in estimates of ground surface temperature and ground heat flux histories from geothermal data

Francisco José Cuesta-Valero et al.

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Cited articles

Alexeev, V. A., Nicolsky, D. J., Romanovsky, V. E., and Lawrence, D. M.: An evaluation of deep soil configurations in the CLM3 for improved representation of permafrost, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, l09502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029536, 2007. a
Beltrami, H.: Surface heat flux histories from inversion of geothermal data: Energy balance at the Earth's surface, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 106, 21979–21993, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JB000065, 2001. a, b, c, d
Beltrami, H.: Climate from borehole data: Energy fluxes and temperatures since 1500, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015702, 2002. a, b, c, d, e
Beltrami, H. and Mareschal, J.-C.: Ground temperature histories for central and eastern Canada from geothermal measurements: Little Ice Age signature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 689–692, https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL00671, 1992. a, b
Beltrami, H. and Taylor, A. E.: Records of climatic change in the Canadian Arctic: towards calibrating oxygen isotope data with geothermal data, Global Planet. Change, 11, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00006-2, 1995. a
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Short summary
Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.