Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 20
Articles | Volume 15, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 20
Development and technical paper
 | 
28 Oct 2022
Development and technical paper |  | 28 Oct 2022

A new bootstrap technique to quantify uncertainty in estimates of ground surface temperature and ground heat flux histories from geothermal data

Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Stephan Gruber, Almudena García-García, and J. Fidel González-Rouco

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Latest update: 13 Jul 2025
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Short summary
Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.
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