A new bootstrap technique to quantify uncertainty in estimates of ground surface temperature and ground heat flux histories from geothermal data

Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José; Beltrami, Hugo; Gruber, Stephan; García-García, Almudena; González-Rouco, J. Fidel

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022

Articles | Volume 15, issue 20

Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, 2022

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, 2022

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 20

Development and technical paper

28 Oct 2022

Development and technical paper | 28 Oct 2022

A new bootstrap technique to quantify uncertainty in estimates of ground surface temperature and ground heat flux histories from geothermal data

Francisco José Cuesta-Valero et al.

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022-supplement

Data sets

Xibalbá: Underground Temperature Database F. J. Cuesta-Valero, H. Beltrami, A. García-García, J. F. González-Rourco, and E. García-Bustamante https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13516487.v4

Model code and software

CIBOR: Codes for Inverting BOReholes (1.0.0) F. J. Cuesta-Valero https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7152900

Short summary

Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.