Articles | Volume 15, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
15 Jul 2022
Model evaluation paper |
| 15 Jul 2022
| 15 Jul 2022
Evaluation of an emergent feature of sub-shelf melt oscillations from an idealized coupled ice sheet–ocean model using FISOC (v1.1) – ROMSIceShelf (v1.0) – Elmer/Ice (v9.0)
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Rupert Gladstone
Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland
Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi
Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Australia
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
The Australian Center for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
David Gwyther
School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Australia
Coastal and Regional Oceanography Lab, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Tore Hattermann
Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway
Energy and Climate Group, Department of Physics and Technology, The Arctic University – University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
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Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8243–8265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, 2024
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The Cryosphere, 18, 5117–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, 2024
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Tian R. Tian, Alexander D. Fraser, Noriaki Kimura, Chen Zhao, and Petra Heil
The Cryosphere, 16, 1299–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1299-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1299-2022, 2022
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This study presents a comprehensive validation of a satellite observational sea ice motion product in Antarctica by using drifting buoys. Two problems existing in this sea ice motion product have been noticed. After rectifying problems, we use it to investigate the impacts of satellite observational configuration and timescale on Antarctic sea ice kinematics and suggest the future improvement of satellite missions specifically designed for retrieval of sea ice motion.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Ben Galton-Fenzi, and Roland Warner
The Cryosphere, 16, 1221–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, 2022
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The thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf and its spatial pattern are evaluated and analysed through temperature observations from six boreholes and numerical simulations. The simulations demonstrate significant ice warming downstream along the ice flow and a great variation of the thermal structure across the ice flow. We suggest that the thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf is unlikely to be affected by current climate changes on decadal timescales.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
The Cryosphere, 20, 2053–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, 2026
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The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
Andrew G. Pauling, Inga J. Smith, Torge Martin, Jeff K. Ridley, David P. Stevens, Max Thomas, Rebecca L. Beadling, Christopher Danek, Tore Hattermann, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Ariaan Purich, and Neil C. Swart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-658, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Climate models typically do not include meltwater entering the Southern Ocean due to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. Previous work shows this meltwater drives sea ice growth, but the varying responses have been difficult to compare across models. We ran 11 climate models using the same meltwater input and found a wide range of sea ice responses depending on the background state in each model. Understanding this uncertainty in response is important for future projections of Antarctic sea ice.
Morven Muilwijk, Tore Hattermann, Rebecca L. Beadling, Neil C. Swart, Aleksi Nummelin, Chuncheng Guo, David M. Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Stephen M. Griffies, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Ombeline Jouet, Qian Li, Torge Martin, John Marshall, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Zihan Song, Inga J. Smith, Max Thomas, Irene Trombini, Eveline C. van der Linden, and Xiaoqi Xu
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Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the rate of ice shelf melting – a coupling missing in most climate models. We analyze a suite of climate models with added meltwater to explore this feedback in different regions. While meltwater generally enhances ocean warming and melt, in West Antarctica most models simulate coastal cooling, suggesting a negative feedback that could slow future ice loss there.
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Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Hélène Seroussi, and Ralph Timmermann
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Quantifying melt and freeze beneath Antarctica’s floating ice shelves is vital to understanding present-day ice-sheet behavior and its potential to contribute to future sea-level rise. We compare 10 ice-shelf/ocean computer simulations with satellite data, providing the first multi-model estimate of melting and refreezing driven by the ocean. This new estimate offers a valuable tool for assessing ice-shelf roles in current and future ice-sheet changes, informing coastal adaptation strategies.
Yiliang Ma, Liyun Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Michael Wolovick, Junshun Wang, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 19, 6187–6205, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6187-2025, 2025
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Totten Glacier in Antarctica holds a sea level potential of 3.85 m. Basal sliding and sub-shelf melt rate have an important impact on ice sheet dynamics. We simulate the evolution of Totten Glacier using an ice flow model with different basal sliding parameterizations and sub-shelf melt rates to quantify their effect on the projections. We found that the modelled glacier retreat and mass loss are sensitive to the choice of basal sliding parameterizations and maximal sub-shelf melt rate.
Fabio Boeira Dias, Matthew H. England, Adele K. Morrison, and Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
The Cryosphere, 19, 5231–5258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5231-2025, 2025
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet melting dominates the sea-level projection uncertainties. Much uncertainty arises from our limited understanding of how ice shelves melt from below. Using a detailed ocean–ice-shelf model, we found that East Antarctic ice shelves experience seasonal melting driven by ocean heat transport variability. In contrast, West Antarctic ice shelves show consistent melting due to a steady supply of warm, deep water, indicating a potentially distinct response due to a warming climate.
Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Claudia F. Giulivi, Adrian Jenkins, Alessandro Silvano, Christopher Auckland, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Michael Meredith, Irena Vaňková, Keith Nicholls, Peter E. D. Davis, Svein Østerhus, Arnold L. Gordon, Christopher J. Zappa, Tiago S. Dotto, Ted Scambos, Kathryn L. Gunn, Stephen R. Rintoul, Shigeru Aoki, Craig Stevens, Chengyan Liu, Sukyoung Yun, Tae-Wan Kim, Won Sang Lee, Markus Janout, Tore Hattermann, Julius Lauber, Elin Darelius, Anna Wåhlin, Leo Middleton, Pasquale Castagno, Giorgio Budillon, Karen J. Heywood, Jennifer Graham, Stephen Dye, Daisuke Hirano, and Una Kim Miller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5693–5706, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, 2025
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We created the first standardised dataset of in-situ ocean measurements time series from around Antarctica collected since 1970s. This includes temperature, salinity, pressure, and currents recorded by instruments deployed in icy, challenging conditions. Our analysis highlights the dominance of tidal currents and separates these from other patterns to study regional energy distribution. This unique dataset offers a foundation for future research on Antarctic ocean dynamics and ice interactions.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
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Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Lawrence A. Bird, Vitaliy Ogarko, Laurent Ailleres, Lachlan Grose, Jérémie Giraud, Felicity S. McCormack, David E. Gwyther, Jason L. Roberts, Richard S. Jones, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
The Cryosphere, 19, 3355–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3355-2025, 2025
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The terrain of the seafloor has important controls on the access of warm water below floating ice shelves around Antarctica. Here, we present an open-source method to infer what the seafloor looks like around the Antarctic continent and within these ice shelf cavities, using measurements of the Earth's gravitational field. We present an improved seafloor map for the Vincennes Bay region in East Antarctica and assess its impact on ice melt rates.
Ole Zeising, Tore Hattermann, Lars Kaleschke, Sophie Berger, Olaf Boebel, Reinhard Drews, M. Reza Ershadi, Tanja Fromm, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Steinhage, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 19, 2837–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, 2025
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Basal melting of ice shelves impacts the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. This study focuses on the Ekström Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, using multiyear data from an autonomous radar system. Results show a surprising seasonal pattern of high melt rates in winter and spring. The seasonalities of sea-ice growth and ocean density indicate that, in winter, dense water enhances plume activity and melt rates. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for improving future mass balance projections.
Julius Lauber, Tore Hattermann, Laura de Steur, Elin Darelius, and Agneta Fransson
Ocean Sci., 20, 1585–1610, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1585-2024, 2024
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Recent studies have highlighted the potential vulnerability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric and oceanic changes. We present new insights from observations from three oceanic moorings below Fimbulisen Ice Shelf from 2009 to 2023. We find that relatively warm water masses reach below the ice shelf both close to the surface and at depth with implications for the basal melting of Fimbulisen.
Qin Zhou, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Tore Hattermann, David Gwyther, and Benjamin Galton-Fenzi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8243–8265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, 2024
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We introduce an accelerated forcing approach to address timescale discrepancies between the ice sheets and ocean components in coupled modelling by reducing the ocean simulation duration. The approach is evaluated using idealized coupled models, and its limitations in real-world applications are discussed. Our results suggest it can be a valuable tool for process-oriented coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling and downscaling climate simulations with such models.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Poul Christoffersen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5117–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, 2024
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Our research delves into the future evolution of Antarctica's Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and its potential contribution to sea level rise, focusing on how basal melt is implemented at the grounding line in ice flow models. Our findings suggest that these implementation methods can significantly impact the magnitude of future ice loss projections. Under a high-emission scenario, the WSB ice sheet could undergo massive and rapid retreat between 2200 and 2300.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
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Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Colette Gabrielle Kerry, Moninya Roughan, Shane Keating, David Gwyther, Gary Brassington, Adil Siripatana, and Joao Marcos A. C. Souza
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2359–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2359-2024, 2024
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Ocean forecasting relies on the combination of numerical models and ocean observations through data assimilation (DA). Here we assess the performance of two DA systems in a dynamic western boundary current, the East Australian Current, across a common modelling and observational framework. We show that the more advanced, time-dependent method outperforms the time-independent method for forecast horizons of 5 d. This advocates the use of advanced methods for highly variable oceanic regions.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
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Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
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Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Felicity S. McCormack, Jason L. Roberts, Bernd Kulessa, Alan Aitken, Christine F. Dow, Lawrence Bird, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Katharina Hochmuth, Richard S. Jones, Andrew N. Mackintosh, and Koi McArthur
The Cryosphere, 17, 4549–4569, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4549-2023, 2023
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Changes in Antarctic surface elevation can cause changes in ice and basal water flow, impacting how much ice enters the ocean. We find that ice and basal water flow could divert from the Totten to the Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica, under only small changes in the surface elevation, with implications for estimates of ice loss from this region. Further studies are needed to determine when this could occur and if similar diversions could occur elsewhere in Antarctica due to climate change.
David E. Gwyther, Shane R. Keating, Colette Kerry, and Moninya Roughan
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 157–178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-157-2023, 2023
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Ocean eddies are important for weather, climate, biology, navigation, and search and rescue. Since eddies change rapidly, models that incorporate or assimilate observations are required to produce accurate eddy timings and locations, yet the model accuracy is rarely assessed below the surface. We use a unique type of ocean model experiment to assess three-dimensional eddy structure in the East Australian Current and explore two pathways in which this subsurface structure is being degraded.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
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Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
David E. Gwyther, Colette Kerry, Moninya Roughan, and Shane R. Keating
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6541–6565, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6541-2022, 2022
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The ocean current flowing along the southeastern coast of Australia is called the East Australian Current (EAC). Using computer simulations, we tested how surface and subsurface observations might improve models of the EAC. Subsurface observations are particularly important for improving simulations, and if made in the correct location and time, can have impact 600 km upstream. The stability of the current affects model estimates could be capitalized upon in future observing strategies.
Madelaine Rosevear, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, and Craig Stevens
Ocean Sci., 18, 1109–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1109-2022, 2022
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Understanding ocean-driven melting of Antarctic ice shelves is critical for predicting future sea level. However, ocean observations from beneath ice shelves are scarce. Here, we present unique ocean and melting data from the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica. We use our observations to evaluate common methods of representing melting in ocean–climate models (melting
parameterisations) and show that these parameterisations overestimate melting when the ocean is warm and/or currents are weak.
Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Jan A. Åström, Anna J. Crawford, Stephen L. Cornford, Suzanne L. Bevan, Thomas Zwinger, Rupert Gladstone, Karen Alley, Erin Pettit, and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2545–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, 2022
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Thwaites Glacier (TG), in West Antarctica, is potentially unstable and may contribute significantly to sea-level rise as global warming continues. Using satellite data, we show that Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, the largest remaining floating extension of TG, has started to accelerate as it fragments along a shear zone. Computer modelling does not indicate that fragmentation will lead to imminent glacier collapse, but it is clear that major, rapid, and unpredictable changes are underway.
Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Matt A. King, and Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
The Cryosphere, 16, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, 2022
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Tidal currents may play an important role in Antarctic ice sheet retreat by changing the rate at which the ocean melts glaciers. Here, using a computational ocean model, we derive the first estimate of present-day tidal melting that covers all of Antarctica. Our results suggest that large-scale ocean models aiming to accurately predict ice melt rates will need to account for the effects of tides. The inclusion of tide-induced friction at the ice–ocean interface should be prioritized.
Tian R. Tian, Alexander D. Fraser, Noriaki Kimura, Chen Zhao, and Petra Heil
The Cryosphere, 16, 1299–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1299-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1299-2022, 2022
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This study presents a comprehensive validation of a satellite observational sea ice motion product in Antarctica by using drifting buoys. Two problems existing in this sea ice motion product have been noticed. After rectifying problems, we use it to investigate the impacts of satellite observational configuration and timescale on Antarctic sea ice kinematics and suggest the future improvement of satellite missions specifically designed for retrieval of sea ice motion.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Ben Galton-Fenzi, and Roland Warner
The Cryosphere, 16, 1221–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, 2022
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The thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf and its spatial pattern are evaluated and analysed through temperature observations from six boreholes and numerical simulations. The simulations demonstrate significant ice warming downstream along the ice flow and a great variation of the thermal structure across the ice flow. We suggest that the thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf is unlikely to be affected by current climate changes on decadal timescales.
Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 617–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022, 2022
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Here we present an improved model of the Antarctic continental shelf ocean and demonstrate that it is capable of reproducing present-day conditions. The improvements are fundamental and regard the inclusion of tides and ocean eddies. We conclude that the model is well suited to gain new insights into processes that are important for Antarctic ice sheet retreat and global ocean changes. Hence, the model will ultimately help to improve projections of sea level rise and climate change.
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Short summary
We use a coupled ice–ocean model to explore an oscillation feature found in several contributing models to MISOMIP1. The oscillation is closely related to the discretized grounding line retreat and likely strengthened by the buoyancy–melt feedback and/or melt–geometry feedback near the grounding line, and frequent ice–ocean coupling. Our model choices have a non-trivial impact on mean melt and ocean circulation strength, which might be interesting for the coupled ice–ocean community.
We use a coupled ice–ocean model to explore an oscillation feature found in several contributing...
