Articles | Volume 13, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
25 Nov 2020
Model evaluation paper |
| 25 Nov 2020
| 25 Nov 2020
Exploring the parameter space of the COSMO-CLM v5.0 regional climate model for the Central Asia CORDEX domain
Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, Berlin, Germany
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Hochschulstrasse 4, Bern, Switzerland
Silje Lund Sørland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, Switzerland
Ingo Kirchner
Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, Berlin, Germany
Martijn Schaap
TNO Built Environment and Geosciences, Department of Air Quality and Climate, Princetonlaan 6, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, Berlin, Germany
Christoph C. Raible
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Hochschulstrasse 4, Bern, Switzerland
Ulrich Cubasch
Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, Berlin, Germany
Related authors
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Basil A. S. Davis, Marc Fasel, Jed O. Kaplan, Emmanuele Russo, and Ariane Burke
Clim. Past, 20, 1939–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During the last ice age (21 000 yr BP) in Europe, the composition and extent of forest and its associated climate remain unclear, with models indicating more forest north of the Alps and a warmer and somewhat wetter climate than suggested by the data. A new compilation of pollen records with improved dating suggests greater agreement with model climates but still suggests models overestimate forest cover, especially in the west.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Basit Khan, Sabine Banzhaf, Edward C. Chan, Renate Forkel, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Klaus Ketelsen, Mona Kurppa, Björn Maronga, Matthias Mauder, Siegfried Raasch, Emmanuele Russo, Martijn Schaap, and Matthias Sühring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1171–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1171-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1171-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An atmospheric chemistry model has been implemented in the microscale PALM model system 6.0. This article provides a detailed description of the model, its structure, input requirements, various features and limitations. Several pre-compiled ready-to-use chemical mechanisms are included in the chemistry model code; however, users can also easily implement other mechanisms. A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the new chemistry model in the urban environment.
Björn Maronga, Sabine Banzhaf, Cornelia Burmeister, Thomas Esch, Renate Forkel, Dominik Fröhlich, Vladimir Fuka, Katrin Frieda Gehrke, Jan Geletič, Sebastian Giersch, Tobias Gronemeier, Günter Groß, Wieke Heldens, Antti Hellsten, Fabian Hoffmann, Atsushi Inagaki, Eckhard Kadasch, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Klaus Ketelsen, Basit Ali Khan, Christoph Knigge, Helge Knoop, Pavel Krč, Mona Kurppa, Halim Maamari, Andreas Matzarakis, Matthias Mauder, Matthias Pallasch, Dirk Pavlik, Jens Pfafferott, Jaroslav Resler, Sascha Rissmann, Emmanuele Russo, Mohamed Salim, Michael Schrempf, Johannes Schwenkel, Gunther Seckmeyer, Sebastian Schubert, Matthias Sühring, Robert von Tils, Lukas Vollmer, Simon Ward, Björn Witha, Hauke Wurps, Julian Zeidler, and Siegfried Raasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1335–1372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1335-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we describe the PALM model system 6.0. PALM is a Fortran-based turbulence-resolving code and has been applied for studying a variety of atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers for about 20 years. The model is optimized for use on massively parallel computer architectures. During the last years, PALM has been significantly improved and now offers a variety of new components that are especially designed to simulate the urban atmosphere at building-resolving resolution.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
Bijan Fallah, Emmanuele Russo, Walter Acevedo, Achille Mauri, Nico Becker, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 14, 1345–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We try to test and evaluate an approach for using two main sources of information on the climate of the past: climate model simulations and proxies. This is done via data assimilation (DA), a method that blends these two sources of information in an intelligent way. However, DA and climate models are computationally very expensive. Here, we tested the ability of a computationally affordable DA to reconstruct high-resolution climate fields.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Leon Geers, Ruud Janssen, Gudrun Thorkelsdottir, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Martijn Schaap
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-426, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution data on reactive nitrogen deposition are needed to inform cost-effective policies. Here, we describe the implementation of a dry deposition module into a large eddy simulation code. With this model, we are able to represent the turbulent exchange of tracers at the hectometer resolution. The model calculates the dispersion and deposition of NOx and NH3 in great spatial detail, clearly showing the influence of local land use patterns.
Christian Hogrefe, Stefano Galmarini, Paul A. Makar, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Olivia E. Clifton, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Jesse O. Bash, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Tim Butler, Philip Cheung, Alma Hodzic, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Kester Momoh, Juan Luis Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan E. Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Roberto San Jose, Martijn Schaap, Donna B. Schwede, and Ranjeet Sokhi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-225, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Performed under the umbrella of the fourth phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), this study applies AQMEII4 diagnostic tools to better characterize how dry deposition removes pollutants from the atmosphere in regional-scale models. The results also strongly suggest that improvement and harmonization of the representation of land use in these models would serve the community in their future development efforts.
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Evelien J. C. van Dijk, Christoph C. Raible, Michael Sigl, Johann Jungclaus, and Heinz Wanner
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The temperature in the past 4000 years consisted of warm and cold periods, initiated by external forcing. But, these periods are not consistent through time and space. We use climate models and reconstructions to study to which extent the periods are reflected in the European climate. We find that on local scales, the chaotic nature of the climate system is larger than the external forcing. This study shows that these periods have to be used very carefully when studying a local site.
Augustin Colette, Gaëlle Collin, François Besson, Etienne Blot, Vincent Guidard, Frederik Meleux, Adrien Royer, Valentin Petiot, Claire Miller, Oihana Fermond, Alizé Jeant, Mario Adani, Joaquim Arteta, Anna Benedictow, Robert Bergström, Dene Bowdalo, Jorgen Brandt, Gino Briganti, Ana C. Carvalho, Jesper Heile Christensen, Florian Couvidat, Ilia D’Elia, Massimo D’Isidoro, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Gaël Descombes, Enza Di Tomaso, John Douros, Jeronimo Escribano, Henk Eskes, Hilde Fagerli, Yalda Fatahi, Johannes Flemming, Elmar Friese, Lise Frohn, Michael Gauss, Camilla Geels, Guido Guarnieri, Marc Guevara, Antoine Guion, Jonathan Guth, Risto Hänninen, Kaj Hansen, Ulas Im, Ruud Janssen, Marine Jeoffrion, Mathieu Joly, Luke Jones, Oriol Jorba, Evgeni Kadantsev, Michael Kahnert, Jacek W. Kaminski, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Richard Kranenburg, Jeroen Kuenen, Anne Caroline Lange, Joachim Langner, Victor Lannuque, Francesca Macchia, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Agnes Nyiri, Miriam Olid, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Yuliia Palamarchuk, Antonio Piersanti, Blandine Raux, Miha Razinger, Lennard Robertson, Arjo Segers, Martijn Schaap, Pilvi Siljamo, David Simpson, Mikhail Sofiev, Anders Stangel, Joanna Struzewska, Carles Tena, Renske Timmermans, Thanos Tsikerdekis, Svetlana Tsyro, Svyatoslav Tyuryakov, Anthony Ung, Andreas Uppstu, Alvaro Valdebenito, Peter van Velthoven, Lina Vitali, Zhuyun Ye, Vincent-Henri Peuch, and Laurence Rouïl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3744, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service – Regional Production delivers daily forecasts, analyses, and reanalyses of air quality in Europe. The Service relies on a distributed modelling production by eleven leading European modelling teams following stringent requirements with an operational design which has no equivalent in the world. All the products are full, free, open and quality assured and disseminated with a high level of reliability.
Onno Doensen, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Woon Mi Kim
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2731, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are crucial systems in the Mediterranean. While extensively studied, their late Holocene variability is poorly understood. Using a climate model spanning 3350-years, we find Mediterranean cyclones show significant multi-decadal variability. Extreme cyclones tend to be more extreme in the central Mediterranean in terms of wind speed. Our work creates a reference baseline to better understand the impact of climate change on Mediterranean cyclones.
Basil A. S. Davis, Marc Fasel, Jed O. Kaplan, Emmanuele Russo, and Ariane Burke
Clim. Past, 20, 1939–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During the last ice age (21 000 yr BP) in Europe, the composition and extent of forest and its associated climate remain unclear, with models indicating more forest north of the Alps and a warmer and somewhat wetter climate than suggested by the data. A new compilation of pollen records with improved dating suggests greater agreement with model climates but still suggests models overestimate forest cover, especially in the west.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 19, 2511–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainty in model–proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Eric Samakinwa, Christoph C. Raible, Ralf Hand, Andrew R. Friedman, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-67, 2023
Publication in CP not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we nudged a stand-alone ocean model MPI-OM to proxy-reconstructed SST. Based on these model simulations, we introduce new estimates of the AMOC variations during the period 1450–1780 through a 10-member ensemble simulation with a novel nudging technique. Our approach reaffirms the known mechanisms of AMOC variability and also improves existing knowledge of the interplay between the AMOC and the NAO during the AMOC's weak and strong phases.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 19, 835–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-835-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation distribution is uneven in monsoon and westerlies-dominated subregions of Asia. Multi-model data from PMIP3 and CMIP5 show a distinct inverse pattern of climatological conditions after NHVAI, with an intensified aridity in the relatively wettest area but a weakened aridity in the relatively driest area of the AMR. The hydrological impacts relate to the dynamical response of the climate system to the radiative effect of volcanic aerosol and the subsequent local physical feedbacks.
Jonathan Robert Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woon Mi Kim, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-324, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate is used to test climate models to verify that simulations accurately project both future and past climate states. We present fully coupled climate sensitivity simulations of Preindustrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and the Quaternary climate periods. We show distinct climate states derived from non-linear responses to ice sheet heights and orbits. The implication is that as paleo proxy data become more reliable, they may constrain the specific climate states produced by climate models.
Roman Brogli, Christoph Heim, Jonas Mensch, Silje Lund Sørland, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) approach is a downscaling methodology that imposes the large-scale GCM-based climate change signal on the boundary conditions of a regional climate simulation. It offers several benefits in comparison to conventional downscaling. We present a detailed description of the methodology, provide companion software to facilitate the preparation of PGW simulations, and present validation and sensitivity studies.
Pascal Wintjen, Frederik Schrader, Martijn Schaap, Burkhard Beudert, Richard Kranenburg, and Christian Brümmer
Biogeosciences, 19, 5287–5311, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we compared four methods for estimating the annual dry deposition of total reactive nitrogen into a low-polluted forest ecosystem. In our analysis, we used 2.5 years of flux measurements, an in situ modeling approach, a large-scale chemical transport model (CTM), and canopy budget models. Annual nitrogen dry deposition budgets ranged between 4.3 and 6.7 kg N ha−1 a−1, depending on the applied method.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1579-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. We perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for glacial periods. The findings demonstrate that northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography are important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and permits a better understanding of the Alpine precipitation patterns at glacial times.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Emmanuele Russo, Bijan Fallah, Patrick Ludwig, Melanie Karremann, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 18, 895–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-895-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study a set of simulations are performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for Europe, for the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods. The main aim is to better understand the drivers of differences between models and pollen-based summer temperatures. Results show that a fundamental role is played by spring soil moisture availability. Additionally, results suggest that model bias is not stationary, and an optimal configuration could not be the best under different forcing.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Christian Brümmer, Jeremy J. Rüffer, Jean-Pierre Delorme, Pascal Wintjen, Frederik Schrader, Burkhard Beudert, Martijn Schaap, and Christof Ammann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 743–761, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-743-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Field campaigns were carried out to investigate the biosphere–atmosphere exchange of selected reactive nitrogen compounds over different land surfaces using two different analytical devices for ammonia and total reactive nitrogen. The datasets improve our understanding of the temporal variability of surface–atmosphere exchange in different ecosystems, thereby providing validation opportunities for inferential models simulating the exchange of reactive nitrogen.
Pascal Wintjen, Frederik Schrader, Martijn Schaap, Burkhard Beudert, and Christian Brümmer
Biogeosciences, 19, 389–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fluxes of total reactive nitrogen (∑Nr) over a low polluted forest were analyzed with regard to their temporal dynamics. Mostly deposition was observed with median fluxes ranging from −15 to −5 ng N m−2 s−1, corresponding to a range of deposition velocities from 0.2 to 0.5 cm s−1. While seasonally changing contributions of NH3 and NOx to the ∑Nr signal were found, we estimate an annual total N deposition (dry+wet) of 12.2 and 10.9 kg N ha−1 a−1 in the 2 years of observation.
Shelley van der Graaf, Enrico Dammers, Arjo Segers, Richard Kranenburg, Martijn Schaap, Mark W. Shephard, and Jan Willem Erisman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 951–972, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-951-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-951-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
CrIS NH3 satellite observations are assimilated into the LOTOS-EUROS model using two different methods. In the first method the data are used to fit spatially varying NH3 emission time factors. In the second method a local ensemble transform Kalman filter is used. Compared to in situ observations, combining both methods led to the most significant improvements in the modeled concentrations and deposition, illustrating the usefulness of CrIS NH3 to improve the spatiotemporal distribution of NH3.
Ulrich Cubasch
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 70, 225–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-70-225-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-70-225-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Flohn's publication discusses the state of knowledge of the Pleistocene climate from the perspective of atmospheric sciences, which in 1963 was mainly based on geological and geomorphological evidence. The paper discusses to what extent Flohn's conclusions are still valid and how new findings, methods, and ideas have added to our present-day picture of the Pleistocene climate.
Roman Brogli, Silje Lund Sørland, Nico Kröner, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1093–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1093-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer future climate, climate simulations predict that some land areas will experience excessive warming during summer. We show that the excessive summer warming is related to the vertical distribution of warming within the atmosphere. In regions characterized by excessive warming, much of the warming occurs close to the surface. In other regions, most of the warming is redistributed to higher levels in the atmosphere, which weakens the surface warming.
Woon Mi Kim, Richard Blender, Michael Sigl, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 2031–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2031-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the natural characteristics and future changes of the global extreme daily precipitation, it is necessary to explore the long-term characteristics of extreme daily precipitation. Here, we used climate simulations to analyze the characteristics and long-term changes of extreme precipitation during the past 3351 years. Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation in the past is associated with internal climate variability and regional surface temperatures.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Woon Mi Kim and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 887–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The analysis of the dynamics of western central Mediterranean droughts for 850–2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model indicates that past Mediterranean droughts were driven by the internal variability. This internal variability is more important during the initial years of droughts. During the transition years, the longevity of droughts is defined by the land–atmosphere feedbacks. In the future, this land–atmosphere feedbacks are intensified, causing a constant dryness over the region.
Basit Khan, Sabine Banzhaf, Edward C. Chan, Renate Forkel, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Klaus Ketelsen, Mona Kurppa, Björn Maronga, Matthias Mauder, Siegfried Raasch, Emmanuele Russo, Martijn Schaap, and Matthias Sühring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1171–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1171-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1171-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An atmospheric chemistry model has been implemented in the microscale PALM model system 6.0. This article provides a detailed description of the model, its structure, input requirements, various features and limitations. Several pre-compiled ready-to-use chemical mechanisms are included in the chemistry model code; however, users can also easily implement other mechanisms. A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the new chemistry model in the urban environment.
Trang Van Pham, Christian Steger, Burkhardt Rockel, Klaus Keuler, Ingo Kirchner, Mariano Mertens, Daniel Rieger, Günther Zängl, and Barbara Früh
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 985–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new regional climate model was prepared based on a weather forecast model. Slow processes of the climate system such as ocean state development and greenhouse gas emissions were implemented. A model infrastructure and evaluation tools were also prepared to facilitate long-term simulations and model evalution. The first ICON-CLM results were close to observations and comparable to those from COSMO-CLM, the recommended model being used at the Deutscher Wetterdienst and CLM Community.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Xinrui Ge, Martijn Schaap, Richard Kranenburg, Arjo Segers, Gert Jan Reinds, Hans Kros, and Wim de Vries
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 16055–16087, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16055-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16055-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about improving the modeling of agricultural ammonia emissions. By considering land use, meteorology and agricultural practices, ammonia emission totals officially reported by countries are distributed in space and time. We illustrated the first step for a better understanding of the variability of ammonia emission, with the possibility of being applied at a European scale, which is of great significance for ammonia budget research and future policy-making.
Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5485–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Now that global climate models (GCMs) can run at similar resolutions to regional climate models (RCMs), one may wonder whether GCMs and RCMs provide similar regional climate information. We perform an evaluation for daily precipitation distribution in PRIMAVERA GCMs (25–50 km resolution) and CORDEX RCMs (12–50 km resolution) over Europe. We show that PRIMAVERA and CORDEX simulate similar distributions. Considering both datasets at such a resolution results in large benefits for impact studies.
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Cristina Primo, Silje Sørland, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Information exchange (IE) from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is investigated. Observational data show that IOD and ENSO synergistically exchange information on ISMR variability over central India. IE patterns observed in three global climate models (GCMs) differ from observations. Our study highlights new perspectives that IE metrics could bring to climate science.
Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5007–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5007-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a new bias-correction method for precipitation that considers orographic characteristics, which can be used in studies where the latter strongly changes. The three-step correction method consists of a separation into orographic features, correction of low-intensity precipitation, and application of empirical quantile mapping. Seasonal bias induced by the global climate model is fully corrected. Rigorous cross-validations illustrate the method's applicability and robustness.
Shelley C. van der Graaf, Richard Kranenburg, Arjo J. Segers, Martijn Schaap, and Jan Willem Erisman
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2451–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2451-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2451-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical transport models (CTMs) are important tools to determine the fate of reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions. The parameterization of the surface–atmosphere exchange in CTMs is often only linked to fixed, land-use-dependent values. In this paper, we present an approach to derive more realistic, dynamic leaf area index (LAI) and roughness length (z0) input maps using multiple satellite products. We evaluate the effect on Nr concentration and deposition fields modelled in the LOTOS-EUROS CTM.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Matthieu Pommier, Hilde Fagerli, Michael Schulz, Alvaro Valdebenito, Richard Kranenburg, and Martijn Schaap
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1787–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1787-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1787-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The EMEP and LOTOS-EUROS models comprise the operational source contribution prediction system for the European cities within the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). This study presents a first evaluation of this system, with hourly resolution, by focusing on one PM10 episode in December 2016, dominated by the influence of domestic emissions. It shows that the system provides valuable information on the composition and contributions of different countries to PM10.
Björn Maronga, Sabine Banzhaf, Cornelia Burmeister, Thomas Esch, Renate Forkel, Dominik Fröhlich, Vladimir Fuka, Katrin Frieda Gehrke, Jan Geletič, Sebastian Giersch, Tobias Gronemeier, Günter Groß, Wieke Heldens, Antti Hellsten, Fabian Hoffmann, Atsushi Inagaki, Eckhard Kadasch, Farah Kanani-Sühring, Klaus Ketelsen, Basit Ali Khan, Christoph Knigge, Helge Knoop, Pavel Krč, Mona Kurppa, Halim Maamari, Andreas Matzarakis, Matthias Mauder, Matthias Pallasch, Dirk Pavlik, Jens Pfafferott, Jaroslav Resler, Sascha Rissmann, Emmanuele Russo, Mohamed Salim, Michael Schrempf, Johannes Schwenkel, Gunther Seckmeyer, Sebastian Schubert, Matthias Sühring, Robert von Tils, Lukas Vollmer, Simon Ward, Björn Witha, Hauke Wurps, Julian Zeidler, and Siegfried Raasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1335–1372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1335-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we describe the PALM model system 6.0. PALM is a Fortran-based turbulence-resolving code and has been applied for studying a variety of atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers for about 20 years. The model is optimized for use on massively parallel computer architectures. During the last years, PALM has been significantly improved and now offers a variety of new components that are especially designed to simulate the urban atmosphere at building-resolving resolution.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
Giancarlo Ciarelli, Mark R. Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Matthias Beekmann, Wenche Aas, Camilla Andersson, Robert Bergström, Astrid Manders-Groot, Florian Couvidat, Mihaela Mircea, Svetlana Tsyro, Hilde Fagerli, Kathleen Mar, Valentin Raffort, Yelva Roustan, Maria-Teresa Pay, Martijn Schaap, Richard Kranenburg, Mario Adani, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Massimo D'Isidoro, Cornelis Cuvelier, Arineh Cholakian, Bertrand Bessagnet, Peter Wind, and Augustin Colette
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4923–4954, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4923-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4923-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The novel multi-model EURODELTA-Trends exercise provided 21 years of continuous PM components and their gas-phase precursor concentrations over Europe from the year 1990. The models’ capabilities to reproduce PM components and gas-phase PM precursor trends over the 1990–2010 period is the key focus of this study. The models were able to reproduce the observed trends relatively well, indicating a possible shift in the thermodynamic equilibrium between gas and particle phases.
Miguel Escudero, Arjo Segers, Richard Kranenburg, Xavier Querol, Andrés Alastuey, Rafael Borge, David de la Paz, Gotzon Gangoiti, and Martijn Schaap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14211–14232, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14211-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14211-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we optimise LOTOS-EUROS CTM for simulating tropospheric O3 during summer in the Madrid metropolitan area, one of the largest conurbations in the Mediterranean. Comparing the outputs from five set-ups with different combinations of spatial resolution, meteorological data and vertical structure, we conclude that the model benefits from fine horizontal resolution and highly resolved vertical structure. Running optimized configuration run, we interpret O3 variability during July 2016.
Renske Timmermans, Arjo Segers, Lyana Curier, Rachid Abida, Jean-Luc Attié, Laaziz El Amraoui, Henk Eskes, Johan de Haan, Jukka Kujanpää, William Lahoz, Albert Oude Nijhuis, Samuel Quesada-Ruiz, Philippe Ricaud, Pepijn Veefkind, and Martijn Schaap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12811–12833, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12811-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12811-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present an evaluation of the added value of the Sentinel-4 and Sentinel-5P missions for air quality analyses of NO2. For this, synthetic observations for both missions are generated and combined with a chemistry transport model. While hourly Sentinel-4 NO2 observations over Europe benefit modelled NO2 analyses throughout the entire day, daily Sentinel-5P NO2 observations with global coverage show an impact up to 3–6 h after overpass. This supports the need for a combination of missions.
Enrico Dammers, Chris A. McLinden, Debora Griffin, Mark W. Shephard, Shelley Van Der Graaf, Erik Lutsch, Martijn Schaap, Yonatan Gainairu-Matz, Vitali Fioletov, Martin Van Damme, Simon Whitburn, Lieven Clarisse, Karen Cady-Pereira, Cathy Clerbaux, Pierre Francois Coheur, and Jan Willem Erisman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12261–12293, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12261-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Ammonia is an essential molecule in the environment, but at its current levels it is unsustainable. However, the emissions are highly uncertain. We explore the use of satellites to estimate the ammonia lifetime and emissions around point sources to help improve the budget. The same method applied to different satellite instruments shows consistent results. Comparison to the emission inventories shows that those are underestimating emissions of point sources by on average a factor of 2.5.
Mark R. Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Wenche Aas, Camilla Andersson, Giancarlo Ciarelli, Florian Couvidat, Kees Cuvelier, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Maria-Teresa Pay, Svetlana Tsyro, Mario Adani, Robert Bergström, Bertrand Bessagnet, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Massimo D'Isidoro, Hilde Fagerli, Kathleen Mar, Noelia Otero, Valentin Raffort, Yelva Roustan, Martijn Schaap, Peter Wind, and Augustin Colette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 379–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-379-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Model estimates of the mean European wet deposition of nitrogen and sulfur for 1990 to 2010 were within 40 % of the observed values. As a result of systematic biases, the models were better at estimating relative trends for the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 than the absolute trends. Although the predominantly decreasing trends were mostly due to emission reductions, they were partially offset by other factors (e.g. changes in precipitation) during the first period, but not the second.
Rocío Baró, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Martin Stengel, Dominik Brunner, Gabriele Curci, Renate Forkel, Lucy Neal, Laura Palacios-Peña, Nicholas Savage, Martijn Schaap, Paolo Tuccella, Hugo Denier van der Gon, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15183–15199, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15183-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Particles in the atmosphere, such as pollution, desert dust, and volcanic ash, have an impact on meteorology. They interact with incoming radiation resulting in a cooling effect of the atmosphere. Today, the use of meteorology and chemistry models help us to understand these processes, but there are a lot of uncertainties. The goal of this work is to evaluate how these interactions are represented in the models by comparing them to satellite data to see how close they are to reality.
Christoph C. Raible, Martina Messmer, Flavio Lehner, Thomas F. Stocker, and Richard Blender
Clim. Past, 14, 1499–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones in winter and their characteristics are investigated in depth for the Atlantic European region from 850 to 2100 CE. During the Common Era, cyclone characteristics show pronounced variations mainly caused by internal variability of the coupled climate system. When anthropogenic forcing becomes dominant, a strong increase of extreme cyclone-related precipitation is found due to thermodynamics, though dynamical processes can play an important role during the last millennium.
Bijan Fallah, Emmanuele Russo, Walter Acevedo, Achille Mauri, Nico Becker, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 14, 1345–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We try to test and evaluate an approach for using two main sources of information on the climate of the past: climate model simulations and proxies. This is done via data assimilation (DA), a method that blends these two sources of information in an intelligent way. However, DA and climate models are computationally very expensive. Here, we tested the ability of a computationally affordable DA to reconstruct high-resolution climate fields.
Shelley C. van der Graaf, Enrico Dammers, Martijn Schaap, and Jan Willem Erisman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13173–13196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13173-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13173-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A combination of NH3 satellite observations from IASI and the LOTOS-EUROS model is used to derive NH3 surface concentrations and dry deposition fluxes over Europe. The results were evaluated using surface measurements (EMEP, LML, MAN) and a sensitivity study. This is a first step in further integration of surface measurements, satellite observations and an atmospheric transport model to derive accurate NH3 surface concentrations and dry deposition fluxes on a large scale.
Noelia Otero, Jana Sillmann, Kathleen A. Mar, Henning W. Rust, Sverre Solberg, Camilla Andersson, Magnuz Engardt, Robert Bergström, Bertrand Bessagnet, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, Cournelius Cuvelier, Svetlana Tsyro, Hilde Fagerli, Martijn Schaap, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Mario Adani, Massimo D'Isidoro, María-Teresa Pay, Mark Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Peter Wind, Narendra Ojha, Valentin Raffort, and Tim Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12269–12288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12269-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12269-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the capability of air-quality models to capture the observed relationship between surface ozone concentrations and meteorology over Europe. The air-quality models tended to overestimate the influence of maximum temperature and surface solar radiation. None of the air-quality models captured the strength of the observed relationship between ozone and relative humidity appropriately, underestimating the effect of relative humidity, a key factor in the ozone removal processes.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 985–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialisation than without initialisation based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given the initial conditions, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. The models have different responses to initialisation due to their ability to depict the EASM–ESNO coupled mode.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Christoph C. Raible, Denica Bozhinova, Olivia Martius, Juan Andrés García Valero, and Juan Pedro Montávez
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2231–2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2231-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out and compare two high-resolution simulations of the Alpine region in the period 1979–2005. We aim to improve the understanding of the local mechanisms leading to extreme events in this complex region. We compare both simulations to precipitation observations to assess the model performance, and attribute major biases to either model or boundary conditions. Further, we develop a new bias correction technique to remove systematic errors in simulated precipitation for impact studies.
Stella Babian, Jens Grieger, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6749–6760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6749-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6749-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most prominent asymmetric features of the southern hemispheric (SH) circulation is the split jet over Australia and New Zealand in austral winter. We propose a new, hemispherical index that is based on the principal components (PCs) of the zonal wind field for the SH winter. The new PC-based index (PSI) suggests that the SH split jet is strongly associated with the AAO. Furthermore, both flavors of ENSO and the PSA-1 pattern produce favorable conditions for a SH split event.
Erik Kjellström, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav Strandberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Daniela Jacob, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Christoph Schär, Samuel Somot, Silje Lund Sørland, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Based on high-resolution regional climate models we investigate European climate change at 1.5 and 2 °C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. Considerable near-surface warming exceeding that of the global mean is found for most of Europe, already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming level. Changes in precipitation and near-surface wind speed are identified. The 1.5 °C of warming level shows significantly less change compared to the 2 °C level, indicating the importance of mitigation.
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Martijn Schaap, Sabine Banzhaf, Thomas Scheuschner, Markus Geupel, Carlijn Hendriks, Richard Kranenburg, Hans-Dieter Nagel, Arjo J. Segers, Angela von Schlutow, Roy Wichink Kruit, and Peter J. H. Builtjes
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-491, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
Deposition of nitrogen and sulfur from the atmosphere on ecosystems causes a loss of biodiversity. We used a combination of atmospheric modelling and deposition observations to estimate the deposition to ecosystems across Germany. We estimate that 70 % of the ecosystems in Germany receive too much nitrogen from deposition. The results are used to determine whether economic activities causing nitrogen emissions are allowed in sensitive areas.
Astrid M. M. Manders, Peter J. H. Builtjes, Lyana Curier, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Carlijn Hendriks, Sander Jonkers, Richard Kranenburg, Jeroen J. P. Kuenen, Arjo J. Segers, Renske M. A. Timmermans, Antoon J. H. Visschedijk, Roy J. Wichink Kruit, W. Addo J. van Pul, Ferd J. Sauter, Eric van der Swaluw, Daan P. J. Swart, John Douros, Henk Eskes, Erik van Meijgaard, Bert van Ulft, Peter van Velthoven, Sabine Banzhaf, Andrea C. Mues, Rainer Stern, Guangliang Fu, Sha Lu, Arnold Heemink, Nils van Velzen, and Martijn Schaap
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4145–4173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The regional-scale air quality model LOTOS–EUROS has been developed by a consortium of Dutch institutes. Recently, version 2.0 of the model was released as an open-source version. Next to a technical description and model evaluation for 2012, this paper presents the model developments in context of the history of air quality modelling and provides an outlook for future directions. Key and innovative applications of LOTOS–EUROS are also highlighted.
Augustin Colette, Camilla Andersson, Astrid Manders, Kathleen Mar, Mihaela Mircea, Maria-Teresa Pay, Valentin Raffort, Svetlana Tsyro, Cornelius Cuvelier, Mario Adani, Bertrand Bessagnet, Robert Bergström, Gino Briganti, Tim Butler, Andrea Cappelletti, Florian Couvidat, Massimo D'Isidoro, Thierno Doumbia, Hilde Fagerli, Claire Granier, Chris Heyes, Zig Klimont, Narendra Ojha, Noelia Otero, Martijn Schaap, Katarina Sindelarova, Annemiek I. Stegehuis, Yelva Roustan, Robert Vautard, Erik van Meijgaard, Marta Garcia Vivanco, and Peter Wind
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3255–3276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3255-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The EURODELTA-Trends numerical experiment has been designed to assess the capability of chemistry-transport models to capture the evolution of surface air quality over the 1990–2010 period in Europe. It also includes sensitivity experiments in order to analyse the relative contribution of (i) emission changes, (ii) meteorological variability, and (iii) boundary conditions to air quality trends. The article is a detailed presentation of the experiment design and participating models.
Enrico Dammers, Mark W. Shephard, Mathias Palm, Karen Cady-Pereira, Shannon Capps, Erik Lutsch, Kim Strong, James W. Hannigan, Ivan Ortega, Geoffrey C. Toon, Wolfgang Stremme, Michel Grutter, Nicholas Jones, Dan Smale, Jacob Siemons, Kevin Hrpcek, Denis Tremblay, Martijn Schaap, Justus Notholt, and Jan Willem Erisman
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2645–2667, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2645-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2645-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Presented here is the validation of the CrIS fast physical retrieval (CFPR) NH3 column and profile measurements using ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) observations. The overall FTIR and CrIS total columns have a positive correlation of r = 0.77 (N = 218) with very little bias (a slope of 1.02). Furthermore, we find that CrIS and FTIR profile comparison differences are mostly within the range of the estimated retrieval uncertainties, with differences in the range of ~ 20 to 40 %.
Martina Messmer, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 477–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Low-pressure systems of type Vb may trigger heavy rainfall events over central Europe. This study aims at analysing the relative role of their moisture sources. For this, a set of sensitivity experiments encompassing changes in soil moisture and Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea SSTs are carried out with WRF. The latter moisture source stands out as the most relevant one. Furthermore, the regions most affected by Vb events in the future might be shifted from the Alps to the Balkan Peninsula.
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita, Christoph C. Raible, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 13, 629–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-629-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This contribution aims at assessing to what extent the analogue method, a classic technique used in other branches of meteorology and climatology, can be used to perform gridded reconstructions of annual temperature based on the limited information from available but un-calibrated proxies spread across different locations of the world. We conclude that it is indeed possible, albeit with certain limitations that render the method comparable to more classic techniques.
Walter Acevedo, Bijan Fallah, Sebastian Reich, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 13, 545–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-545-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-545-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to contribute to the present knowledge of paleo data assimilation techniques by addressing the following two questions: (i) Does the off-line regime naturally appear for the assimilation of tree-ring-width records into an AGCM? (ii) Is the fuzzy logic (FL)-based extension of a forward model still useful to improve the performance of a time-averaged ensemble Kalman filter technique when a climate model is used?
Stefan Brönnimann, Abdul Malik, Alexander Stickler, Martin Wegmann, Christoph C. Raible, Stefan Muthers, Julien Anet, Eugene Rozanov, and Werner Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15529–15543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15529-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Effects on climate have been found, which is relevant for seasonal forecasts. However, up to now only relatively short records were available, and even within these the climate imprints were intermittent. Here we analyze a 108-year long reconstruction as well as four 405-year long simulations. We confirm most of the claimed QBO effects on climate, but they are small, which explains apparently variable effects.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Stefan Muthers, Christoph C. Raible, Eugene Rozanov, and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 877–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-877-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important oceanic circulation system which transports large amounts of heat from the tropics to the north. This circulation is strengthened when less solar irradiance reaches the Earth, e.g. due to reduced solar activity or geoengineering techniques. In climate models, however, this response is overestimated when chemistry–climate interactions and the following shift in the atmospheric circulation systems are not considered.
Monique F. M. A. Albert, Magdalena D. Anguelova, Astrid M. M. Manders, Martijn Schaap, and Gerrit de Leeuw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13725–13751, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13725-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13725-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Sea spray source functions (SSSFs) predict production of sea salt aerosol, important for climate. Sea spray originates from bubble bursting within whitecaps, mainly formed by wind speed (U). Using satellite-based whitecap fraction (W) data analyzed on global and regional scale and explicitly accounting for sea surface temperature (T) we derive a new W(U, T) parameterization. We use it to evaluate influence of secondary factors on a SSSF via W.
Niklaus Merz, Andreas Born, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 12, 2011–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2011-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The last (Eemian) interglacial is studied with a global climate model focusing on Greenland and the adjacent high latitudes. A set of model experiments demonstrates the crucial role of changes in sea ice and sea surface temperatures for the magnitude of Eemian atmospheric warming. Greenland temperatures are found highly sensitive to sea ice changes in the Nordic Seas but rather insensitive to changes in the Labrador Sea. This behavior has important implications for Greenland ice core signals.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
Enrico Dammers, Mathias Palm, Martin Van Damme, Corinne Vigouroux, Dan Smale, Stephanie Conway, Geoffrey C. Toon, Nicholas Jones, Eric Nussbaumer, Thorsten Warneke, Christof Petri, Lieven Clarisse, Cathy Clerbaux, Christian Hermans, Erik Lutsch, Kim Strong, James W. Hannigan, Hideaki Nakajima, Isamu Morino, Beatriz Herrera, Wolfgang Stremme, Michel Grutter, Martijn Schaap, Roy J. Wichink Kruit, Justus Notholt, Pierre-F. Coheur, and Jan Willem Erisman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10351–10368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10351-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10351-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) measured by the IASI satellite instrument is compared to observations from ground-based FTIR instruments. The seasonal cycles of NH3 in both datasets are consistent for most sites. Correlations are found to be high at sites with considerable NH3 levels, whereas correlations are lower at sites with low NH3 levels close to the detection limit of the IASI instrument. The study's results further indicate that the IASI-NH3 product performs better than earlier estimates.
E. Dammers, C. Vigouroux, M. Palm, E. Mahieu, T. Warneke, D. Smale, B. Langerock, B. Franco, M. Van Damme, M. Schaap, J. Notholt, and J. W. Erisman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12789–12803, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12789-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12789-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new retrieval method for ammonia (NH3) concentrations and total columns from ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) observations. Observations from Bremen, Lauder, Réunion and Jungfraujoch are used to show the capabilities of the new retrieval. The developed retrieval provides a new way of obtaining time-resolved measurements and will be useful for understanding the dynamics of ammonia concentrations in the atmosphere and for satellite and model validation.
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, C. C. Raible, and S. Dierer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3349–3363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3349-2015, 2015
S. Muthers, F. Arfeuille, C. C. Raible, and E. Rozanov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11461–11476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11461-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
After volcanic eruptions different radiative and chemical processes take place in the stratosphere which perturb the ozone layer and cause pronounced dynamical changes. In idealized chemistry-climate model simulations the importance of these processes and the modulating role of the climate state is analysed. The chemical effect strongly differs between a preindustrial and present-day climate, but the effect on the dynamics is weak. Radiative processes dominate the dynamics in all climate states.
V. Marécal, V.-H. Peuch, C. Andersson, S. Andersson, J. Arteta, M. Beekmann, A. Benedictow, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, A. Cansado, F. Chéroux, A. Colette, A. Coman, R. L. Curier, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, A. Drouin, H. Elbern, E. Emili, R. J. Engelen, H. J. Eskes, G. Foret, E. Friese, M. Gauss, C. Giannaros, J. Guth, M. Joly, E. Jaumouillé, B. Josse, N. Kadygrov, J. W. Kaiser, K. Krajsek, J. Kuenen, U. Kumar, N. Liora, E. Lopez, L. Malherbe, I. Martinez, D. Melas, F. Meleux, L. Menut, P. Moinat, T. Morales, J. Parmentier, A. Piacentini, M. Plu, A. Poupkou, S. Queguiner, L. Robertson, L. Rouïl, M. Schaap, A. Segers, M. Sofiev, L. Tarasson, M. Thomas, R. Timmermans, Á. Valdebenito, P. van Velthoven, R. van Versendaal, J. Vira, and A. Ung
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2777–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the air quality forecasting system over Europe put in place in the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate projects. It provides daily and 4-day forecasts and analyses for the previous day for major gas and particulate pollutants and their main precursors. These products are based on a multi-model approach using seven state-of-the-art models developed in Europe. An evaluation of the performance of the system is discussed in the paper.
M. Messmer, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, and C. C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 541–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-541-2015, 2015
J. J. Gómez-Navarro, O. Bothe, S. Wagner, E. Zorita, J. P. Werner, J. Luterbacher, C. C. Raible, and J. P Montávez
Clim. Past, 11, 1077–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015, 2015
S. Fuzzi, U. Baltensperger, K. Carslaw, S. Decesari, H. Denier van der Gon, M. C. Facchini, D. Fowler, I. Koren, B. Langford, U. Lohmann, E. Nemitz, S. Pandis, I. Riipinen, Y. Rudich, M. Schaap, J. G. Slowik, D. V. Spracklen, E. Vignati, M. Wild, M. Williams, and S. Gilardoni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8217–8299, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8217-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Particulate matter (PM) constitutes one of the most challenging problems both for air quality and climate change policies. This paper reviews the most recent scientific results on the issue and the policy needs that have driven much of the increase in monitoring and mechanistic research over the last 2 decades. The synthesis reveals many new processes and developments in the science underpinning climate-PM interactions and the effects of PM on human health and the environment.
F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
D. Zanchettin, O. Bothe, F. Lehner, P. Ortega, C. C. Raible, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 11, 939–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-939-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A discrepancy exists between reconstructed and simulated Pacific North American pattern (PNA) features during the early 19th century. Pseudo-reconstructions demonstrate that the available PNA reconstruction is potentially skillful but also potentially affected by a number of sources of uncertainty and deficiencies especially at multidecadal and centennial timescales. Simulations and reconstructions can be reconciled by attributing the reconstructed PNA features to internal variability.
S. Banzhaf, M. Schaap, R. Kranenburg, A. M. M. Manders, A. J. Segers, A. J. H. Visschedijk, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, J. J. P. Kuenen, E. van Meijgaard, L. H. van Ulft, J. Cofala, and P. J. H. Builtjes
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1047-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1047-2015, 2015
B. Fallah and U. Cubasch
Clim. Past, 11, 253–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-253-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-253-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that state-of-the-art climate model simulations are able to capture historically recorded Asian monsoon failures during the past millennium at the right time and with a comparable spatial distribution. During the Little Ice Age, both model and proxy reconstructions point to fewer monsoon failures. The results suggest an influential impact of volcanic eruptions on the atmosphere-ocean interactions throughout the past millennium.
T. Vlemmix, H. J. Eskes, A. J. M. Piters, M. Schaap, F. J. Sauter, H. Kelder, and P. F. Levelt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1313–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1313-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1313-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Ground-based remote sensing measurements of nitrogen dioxide are compared to the Lotos-Euros air quality (AQ) model. Measurements were taken in the Netherlands with a UV-Vis spectrometer which observes scattered sunlight under different elevation viewing angles. On average, a surprisingly good agreement is found. Perhaps most striking is the agreement between model and observations as a function of wind direction. This demonstrates the quality of the AQ model and underlying emission inventory.
S. Muthers, J. G. Anet, A. Stenke, C. C. Raible, E. Rozanov, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter, F. X. Arfeuille, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2157–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, 2014
K. M. Keller, F. Joos, and C. C. Raible
Biogeosciences, 11, 3647–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, 2014
N. Merz, A. Born, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 1221–1238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1221-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. V. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, W. Schmutz, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014
C. C. Raible, F. Lehner, J. F. González-Rouco, and L. Fernández-Donado
Clim. Past, 10, 537–550, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-537-2014, 2014
A. Mues, J. Kuenen, C. Hendriks, A. Manders, A. Segers, Y. Scholz, C. Hueglin, P. Builtjes, and M. Schaap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 939–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-939-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-939-2014, 2014
S. Banzhaf, M. Schaap, R. J. Wichink Kruit, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, R. Stern, and P. J. H. Builtjes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11675–11693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11675-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11675-2013, 2013
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
N. Merz, C. C. Raible, H. Fischer, V. Varma, M. Prange, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 9, 2433–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2433-2013, 2013
R. Kranenburg, A. J. Segers, C. Hendriks, and M. Schaap
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 721–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-721-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-721-2013, 2013
S. Polanski, B. Fallah, S. Prasad, and U. Cubasch
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-703-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-703-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)
ZEMBA v1.0: an energy and moisture balance climate model to investigate Quaternary climate
Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2
TemDeep: a self-supervised framework for temporal downscaling of atmospheric fields at arbitrary time resolutions
The ensemble consistency test: from CESM to MPAS and beyond
Presentation, calibration and testing of the DCESS II Earth system model of intermediate complexity (version 1.0)
Synthesizing global carbon–nitrogen coupling effects – the MAGICC coupled carbon–nitrogen cycle model v1.0
Historical trends and controlling factors of isoprene emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data
From weather data to river runoff: using spatiotemporal convolutional networks for discharge forecasting
A Fortran–Python interface for integrating machine learning parameterization into earth system models
A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)
The DOE E3SM version 2.1: overview and assessment of the impacts of parameterized ocean submesoscales
WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions
Modeling commercial-scale CO2 storage in the gas hydrate stability zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0
DiuSST: a conceptual model of diurnal warm layers for idealized atmospheric simulations with interactive sea surface temperature
High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7
T&C-CROP: representing mechanistic crop growth with a terrestrial biosphere model (T&C, v1.5) – model formulation and validation
An updated non-intrusive, multi-scale, and flexible coupling interface in WRF 4.6.0
Monitoring and benchmarking Earth system model simulations with ESMValTool v2.12.0
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK 0.14.0.11): a Python library for research and teaching
CropSuite v1.0 – a comprehensive open-source crop suitability model considering climate variability for climate impact assessment
ICON ComIn – the ICON Community Interface (ComIn version 0.1.0, with ICON version 2024.01-01)
Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models
A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models
The real challenges for climate and weather modelling on its way to sustained exascale performance: a case study using ICON (v2.6.6)
Improving the representation of major Indian crops in the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5) using site-scale crop data
Evaluation of CORDEX ERA5-forced NARCliM2.0 regional climate models over Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.1.2
Design, evaluation, and future projections of the NARCliM2.0 CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia regional climate ensemble
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7
Amending the algorithm of aerosol–radiation interactions in WRF-Chem (v4.4)
The very-high-resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP
GOSI9: UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configurations
Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts
Virtual Integration of Satellite and In-situ Observation Networks (VISION) v1.0: In-Situ Observations Simulator (ISO_simulator)
Climate model downscaling in central Asia: a dynamical and a neural network approach
Advanced climate model evaluation with ESMValTool v2.11.0 using parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing
Multi-year simulations at kilometre scale with the Integrated Forecasting System coupled to FESOM2.5 and NEMOv3.4
Subsurface hydrological controls on the short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate–nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (v2.1)
CARIB12: a regional Community Earth System Model/Modular Ocean Model 6 configuration of the Caribbean Sea
Process-based modeling framework for sustainable irrigation management at the regional scale: Integrating rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions
Architectural insights into and training methodology optimization of Pangu-Weather
Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Software sustainability of global impact models
fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections
ISOM 1.0: a fully mesoscale-resolving idealized Southern Ocean model and the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions
A computationally lightweight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazards: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1
Introducing the MESMER-M-TPv0.1.0 module: spatially explicit Earth system model emulation for monthly precipitation and temperature
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, referred to here as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols and partly due to systematic model errors. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2443–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we develop and apply a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. This system is meant to advance our understanding of the ocean's role in climate predictability.
Liwen Wang, Qian Li, Qi Lv, Xuan Peng, and Wei You
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2427–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research presents a novel deep learning approach called "TemDeep" for downscaling atmospheric variables at arbitrary time resolutions based on temporal coherence. Results show that our method can accurately recover evolution details superior to other methods, reaching 53.7 % in the restoration rate. Our findings are important for advancing weather forecasting models and enabling more precise and reliable predictions to support disaster preparedness, agriculture, and sustainable development.
Teo Price-Broncucia, Allison Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Michael Duda, and Rebecca Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2349–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ensemble consistency test (ECT) and its ultrafast variant (UF-ECT) have become powerful tools in the development community for the identification of unwanted changes in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We develop a generalized setup framework to enable easy adoption of the ECT approach for other model developers and communities. This framework specifies test parameters to accurately characterize model variability and balance test sensitivity and computational cost.
Esteban Fernández Villanueva and Gary Shaffer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2161–2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe, calibrate and test the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) II model, a new, broad, adaptable and fast Earth system model. DCESS II is designed for global simulations over timescales of years to millions of years using limited computer resources like a personal computer. With its flexibility and comprehensive treatment of the global carbon cycle, DCESS II is a useful, computationally friendly tool for simulations of past climates as well as for future Earth system projections.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Tao Zhang, Cyril Morcrette, Meng Zhang, Wuyin Lin, Shaocheng Xie, Ye Liu, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Joana Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1917–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) struggle with the uncertainties associated with parameterizing subgrid physics. Machine learning (ML) algorithms offer a solution by learning the important relationships and features from high-resolution models. To incorporate ML parameterizations into ESMs, we develop a Fortran–Python interface that allows for calling Python functions within Fortran-based ESMs. Through two case studies, this interface demonstrates its feasibility, modularity, and effectiveness.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1413–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most severe effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor, where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a subsea CO2 injection.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1333–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The daily cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts clouds above the ocean and could influence the clustering of thunderstorms linked to extreme rainfall and hurricanes. However, daily SST variability is often poorly represented in modeling studies of how clouds cluster. We present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper-ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. Evaluating the model against observations, we show that it performs significantly better than common slab models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jordi Buckley Paules, Simone Fatichi, Bonnie Warring, and Athanasios Paschalis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1287–1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate enhancements to the process-based T&C model aimed at improving its representation of crop growth and management practices. The updated model, T&C-CROP, enables applications such as analysing the hydrological and carbon storage impacts of land use transitions (e.g. conversions between crops, forests, and pastures) and optimizing irrigation and fertilization strategies in response to climate change.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Panagiotis Adamidis, Erik Pfister, Hendryk Bockelmann, Dominik Zobel, Jens-Olaf Beismann, and Marek Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 905–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we investigated performance indicators of the climate model ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) on different compute architectures to answer the question of how to generate high-resolution climate simulations. Evidently, it is not enough to use more computing units of the conventionally used architectures; higher memory throughput is the most promising approach. More potential can be gained from single-node optimization rather than simply increasing the number of compute nodes.
Kangari Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 763–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study aimed to improve the representation of wheat and rice in a land model for the Indian region. The modified model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, and carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific crop parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jason P. Evans, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Yue Li, and Matthew L. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 703–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the skill in simulating the Australian climate of some of the latest generation of regional climate models. We show when and where the models simulate this climate with high skill versus model limitations. We show how new models perform relative to the previous-generation models, assessing how model design features may underlie key performance improvements. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Stephen White, Yue Li, Moutassem El Rafei, Rishav Goyal, Matthew L. Riley, and Jyothi Lingala
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce new climate models that simulate Australia’s future climate at regional scales, including at an unprecedented resolution of 4 km for 1950–2100. We describe the model design process used to create these new climate models. We show how the new models perform relative to previous-generation models and compare their climate projections. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide climate model design and the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Gabi Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Dann Mitchell, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Piotr Wolski, Wenxia Zhang, and Vivek K. Arora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations of the response to human and natural influences together, natural climate influences alone, and greenhouse gases alone, among others, are key to quantifying human influence on the climate. The last set of such coordinated simulations underpinned key findings in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Here we propose a new set of such simulations to be used in the next generation of attribution studies, and to underpin the next IPCC report.
Jiawang Feng, Chun Zhao, Qiuyan Du, Zining Yang, and Chen Jin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 585–603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved the calculation of how aerosols in the air interact with radiation in WRF-Chem. The original model used a simplified method, but we developed a more accurate approach. We found that this method significantly changes the properties of the estimated aerosols and their effects on radiation, especially for dust aerosols. It also impacts the simulated weather conditions. Our work highlights the importance of correctly representing aerosol–radiation interactions in models.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Observational data and modelling capabilities have expanded in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing, and handling a large amount of data. This work describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the VISION toolkit, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Jörg Benke, Ruth Comer, Birgit Hassler, Emma Hogan, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Francesco Nattino, Patrick Peglar, Valeriu Predoi, Stef Smeets, Stephen Worsley, Martin Yeo, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. Here, we describe recent significant improvements of ESMValTool’s computational efficiency including parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing. Evaluations with the enhanced version of ESMValTool are faster, use less computational resources, and can handle input data larger than the available memory.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Giovanni Seijo-Ellis, Donata Giglio, Gustavo Marques, and Frank Bryan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8989–9021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A CESM–MOM6 regional configuration of the Caribbean Sea was developed in response to the rising need for high-resolution models for climate impact studies. The configuration is validated for the period 2000–2020 and improves significant errors in a low-resolution model. Oceanic properties are well represented. Patterns of freshwater associated with the Amazon River are well captured, and the mean flows of ocean waters across multiple passages in the Caribbean Sea agree with observations.
Yan Bo, Hao Liang, Tao Li, and Feng Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-212, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposed an advancing framework for modeling regional rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The framework integrated a process-based soil-crop model with key physiological effects, a novel model upscaling method, and the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm at a parallel computing platform. The framework provides a valuable tool for irrigation optimization to deliver co-benefits of ensuring food production, reducing water use and greenhouse gas emissions.
Deifilia To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8873–8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers 3D atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20 %–30 %. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases the accessibility of training and working with the model.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Seung H. Baek, Paul A. Ullrich, Bo Dong, and Jiwoo Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8665–8681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant co-variances during precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation (a stationary phenomenon). However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation (a non-stationary phenomenon) captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. Our study quantifies a ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling.
Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Daniel S. Katz, and Robert Reinecke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8593–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research software is vital for scientific progress but is often developed by scientists with limited skills, time, and funding, leading to challenges in usability and maintenance. Our study across 10 sectors shows strengths in version control, open-source licensing, and documentation while emphasizing the need for containerization and code quality. We recommend workshops; code quality metrics; funding; and following the findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) standards.
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Jingwei Xie, Xi Wang, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Jiangfeng Yu, Zipeng Yu, Junlin Wei, and Xiang Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8469–8493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose the concept of mesoscale ocean direct numerical simulation (MODNS), which should resolve the first baroclinic deformation radius and ensure the numerical dissipative effects do not directly contaminate the mesoscale motions. It can be a benchmark for testing mesoscale ocean large eddy simulation (MOLES) methods in ocean models. We build an idealized Southern Ocean model using MITgcm to generate a type of MODNS. We also illustrate the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions.
Emily Black, John Ellis, and Ross I. Maidment
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8353–8372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present General TAMSAT-ALERT, a computationally lightweight and versatile tool for generating ensemble forecasts from time series data. General TAMSAT-ALERT is capable of combining multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into probabilistic hazard assessments. In this way, it complements existing systems and enhances their utility for actionable hazard assessment.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Cited articles
Annan, J. and Hargreaves, J.:
Efficient estimation and ensemble generation in climate modelling,
Philos. T. R. Soc. A,
365, 2077–2088, 2007. a
Annan, J. D., Lunt, D. J., Hargreaves, J. C., and Valdes, P. J.: Parameter estimation in an atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 363–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-12-363-2005, 2005. a
Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M., and Reinhardt, T.:
Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction with the COSMO model: Description and sensitivities,
Mon. Weather Rev.,
139, 3887–3905, 2011. a
Ball, G. and Hall Dj, I.:
A novel method of data analysis and pattern classification. Isodata, A novel method of data analysis and pattern classification,
Tech. Report 5RI, Project 5533,
1965. a
Ban, N., Schmidli, J., and Schär, C.:
Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
42, 1165–1172, 2015. a
Becker, A., Finger, P., Meyer-Christoffer, A., Rudolf, B., and Ziese, M.:
GPCC full data reanalysis version 7.0 at 0.5: Monthly land-surface precipitation from rain-gauges built on GTS-based and historic data,
2011. a
Beltran, C., Edwards, N., Haurie, A., Vial, J., and Zachary, D.:
Oracle-based optimization applied to climate model calibration,
Environ. Model. Assess.,
11, 31–43, 2006. a
Brisson, E., Demuzere, M., and van Lipzig, N.:
Modelling strategies for performing convection-permitting climate simulations,
Meteorol. Z,
25, 149–163, 2015. a
Bucchignani, E., Montesarchio, M., Cattaneo, L., Manzi, M., and Mercogliano, P.:
Regional climate modeling over China with COSMO-CLM: Performance assessment and climate projections,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
119, 12–151, 2014. a
Bucchignani, E., Montesarchio, M., Zollo, A., and Mercogliano, P.:
High-resolution climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over Italy: performance evaluation and climate projections for the 21st century,
Int. J. Climatol.,
36, 735–756, 2016. a
Buzzi, M., Rotach, M., Holtslag, M., and Holtslag, A.:
Evaluation of the COSMO-SC turbulence scheme in a shear-driven stable boundary layer,
Meteorol. Z.,
20, 335–350, 2011. a
Carlsson, B., Papadimitrakis, Y., and Rutgersson, A.:
Evaluation of a roughness length model and sea surface properties with data from the Baltic Sea,
J. Phys. Oceanogr.,
40, 2007–2024, 2010. a
Cerenzia, I., Tampieri, F., and Tesini, M.:
Diagnosis of turbulence schema in stable atmospheric conditions and sensitivity tests,
Cosmo Newsletter,
14, 1–11,
2014. a
Collins, M., AchutaRao, K., Ashok, K., Bhandari, S., Mitra, A., Prakash, S., Srivastava, R., and Turner, A.:
Observational challenges in evaluating climate models,
Nat. Clim. Change,
3, 940–941, 2013. a
Dobler, A. and Ahrens, B.: Four climate change scenarios for the Indian summer monsoon by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
116, D24104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016329, 2011. a
Doms, G. and Baldauf, M.:
A Description of the Nonhydrostatic Regional COSMO-Model – Part I: Dynamics and Numerics, Tech. rep.,
COSMO – Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling,
https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_pub/nwv/cosmo-doc_5.00_I, 2013. a
Doms, G., Föster, J., Heise, E., Herzog, H., Mironov, D., Raschendorfer, M., Reinhardt, T., Ritter, B., Schrodin, R., Schulz, J., and Vogel, G.:
A Description of the Nonhydrostatic Regional COSMO-Model – Part II: Physical Parameterizations, Tech. rep.,
COSMO – Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling,
https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_pub/nwv/cosmo-doc_5.00_II, 2013. a
Dosio, A. and Panitz, H.-J.:
Climate change projections for CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM regional climate model and differences with the driving global climate models,
Clim. Dynam.,
46, 1599–1625, 2016. a
Dosio, A., Panitz, H.-J., Schubert-Frisius., M., and Lüthi, D.:
Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global circulation models over CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM: evaluation over the present climate and analysis of the added value,
Clim. Dynam.,
44, 2637–2661, 2015. a
Fallah, B., Sodoudi, S., Russo, E., Kirchner, I., and Cubasch, U.:
Towards modeling the regional rainfall changes over Iran due to the climate forcing of the past 6000 years,
Quatern. Int.,
429, 119–128, 2015. a
Fallah, B., Sodoudi, S., and Cubasch, U.:
Westerly jet stream and past millennium climate change in Arid Central Asia simulated by COSMO-CLM model,
Theor. Appl. Climatol.,
124, 1079–1088, 2016. a
Fernández, J., Sáenz, J., and Zorita, E.:
Analysis of wintertime atmospheric moisture transport and its variability over southern Europe in the NCEP Reanalyses,
Clim. Res.,
23, 195–215, 2003. a
Fischer, T., Menz, C., Su, B., and Scholten, T.:
Simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM,
Int. J. Climatol.,
33, 2988–3001, 2013. a
Flaounas, E., Drobinski, P., Borga, M., Calvet, J., Delrieu, G., Morin, E., Tartari, G., and Toffolon, R.:
Assessment of gridded observations used for climate model validation in the Mediterranean region: the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX framework,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
7, 024017, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024017, 2012. a
Foley, A.:
Uncertainty in regional climate modelling: A review,
Prog. Phys. Geog.,
34, 647–670, 2010. a
Fosser, G., Khodayar, S., and Berg, P.:
Benefit of convection permitting climate model simulations in the representation of convective precipitation,
Clim. Dynam.,
44, 45–60, 2015. a
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Wargan, R. R. K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.:
The modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2),
J. Climate,
30, 5419–5454, 2017. a
Giorgi, F., Jones, C., and Asrar, G.:
Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework,
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Bulletin,
58, 175–183, 2009. a
Gómez-Navarro, J., Montávez, J., Jerez, S., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., and Zorita, E.:
What is the role of the observational dataset in the evaluation and scoring of climate models?,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
39, L24701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL054206, 2012. a
Gregoire, L., Valdes, P., Payne, A., and Kahana, R.:
Optimal tuning of a GCM using modern and glacial constraints,
Clim. Dynam.,
37, 705–719, 2011. a
Gutowski Jr., W. J., Giorgi, F., Timbal, B., Frigon, A., Jacob, D., Kang, H.-S., Raghavan, K., Lee, B., Lennard, C., Nikulin, G., O'Rourke, E., Rixen, M., Solman, S., Stephenson, T., and Tangang, F.: WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4087–4095, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016, 2016. a
Harris, I. and Jones, P.:
CRU TS4.01: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) version 4.01 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901–Dec. 2016),
available at: http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/58a8802721c94c66ae45c3baa4d814d0 (last access: 1 February 2020), 2017. a
Hastings, D., Dunbar, P., Elphingstone, G., Bootz, M., Murakami, H., Maruyama, H., Masaharu, H., Holland, P., Payne, J., Bryant, N., Logan, T. L., Muller, J.-P., Schreier, G., and MacDonald, J. S.:
The global land one-kilometer base elevation (GLOBE) digital elevation model, Version 1.0. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Geophysical Data Center, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado 80303, USA, 1999. a
Jackson, C., Sen, M., and Stoffa, P.:
An efficient stochastic Bayesian approach to optimal parameter and uncertainty estimation for climate model predictions,
J. Climate,
17, 2828–2841, 2004. a
Jacob, D., Bärring, L., Christensen, O., Christensen, J., De Castro, M., Deque, M., Giorgi, F., Hagemann, S., Hirschi, M., Jones, R., Kjellström, E., Lenderink, G., Rockel, B., Sánchez, E., Schär, C., Seneviratne, S. I., Somot, S., van Ulden, A., and van den Hurk, B.:
An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate,
Climatic Change,
81, 31–52, 2007. a
Jacob, D., Elizalde, A., Haensler, A., Hagemann, S., Kumar, P., Podzun, R., Rechid, D., Remedio, A., Saeed, F., Sieck, K., Teichmann, C., and Wilhelm, C.:
Assessing the transferability of the regional climate model REMO to different coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) regions,
Atmosphere,
3, 181–199, 2012. a
Jain, A. K.:
Data clustering: 50 years beyond K-means,
Pattern Recogn. Lett.,
31, 651–666, 2010. a
Järvinen, H., Räisänen, P., Laine, M., Tamminen, J., Ilin, A., Oja, E., Solonen, A., and Haario, H.: Estimation of ECHAM5 climate model closure parameters with adaptive MCMC, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9993–10002, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9993-2010, 2010. a
Jones, C., Gregory, J., Thorpe, R., Cox, P., Murphy, J., Sexton, D., and Valdes, P.:
Systematic optimisation and climate simulation of FAMOUS, a fast version of HadCM3,
Clim. Dynam.,
25, 189–204, 2005. a
Kanamitsu, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Woollen, J., Yang, S., Hnilo, J., Fiorino, M., and Potter, G.:
Ncep–doe amip-ii reanalysis (r-2),
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
83, 1631–1643, 2002. a
Keuler, K., Radtke, K., Kotlarski, S., and Lüthi, D.:
Regional climate change over Europe in COSMO-CLM: Influence of emission scenario and driving global model,
Meteorol. Z.,
25, 121–136, 2016. a
Knote, C., Heinemann, G., and Rockel, B.:
Changes in weather extremes: Assessment of return values using high resolution climate simulations at convection-resolving scale,
Meteorol. Z.,
19, 11–23, 2010. a
Knutti, R., Stocker, T., Joos, F., and Plattner, G.:
Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles,
Nature,
416, 719–723, https://doi.org/10.1038/416719a, 2002. a
Knutti, R., Stocker, T., Joos, F., and Plattner, G.:
Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks,
Clim. Dynam.,
21, 257–272, 2003. a
Lange, S., Rockel, B., Volkholz, J., and Bookhagen, B.:
Regional climate model sensitivities to parametrizations of convection and non-precipitating subgrid-scale clouds over South America,
Clim. Dynam.,
44, 2839–2857, 2015. a
Lempert, R., Nakicenovic, N., Sarewitz, D., and Schlesinger, M.:
Characterizing climate-change uncertainties for decision-makers. An editorial essay,
Climatic Change,
65, 1–9, 2004. a
Lloyd, S.:
Least squares quantization in PCM,
IEEE T. Inform. Theory,
28, 129–137, 1982. a
MacQueen, J.:
Some methods for classification and analysis of multivariate observations,
in: Proceedings of the fifth Berkeley symposium on mathematical statistics and probability, Oakland, CA, USA, vol. 1, 281–297, 1967. a
Mannig, B., Müller, M., Starke, E., Merkenschlager, C., Mao, W., Zhi, X., Podzun, R., Jacob, D., and Paeth, H.:
Dynamical downscaling of climate change in Central Asia,
Global Planet. Change,
110, 26–39, 2013. a
Medvigy, D., Walko, R., Otte, M., and Avissar, R.:
The Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Model: Optimization and evaluation of simulated radiative fluxes and precipitation,
Mon. Weather Rev.,
138, 1923–1939, 2010. a
Meng, X., Lyu, S., Zhang, T., Zhao, L., Li, Z., Han, B., Li, S., Ma, D., Chen, H., Ao, Y., Luo, S., Shen, Y, Guo, J., and Wen, L.:
Simulated cold bias being improved by using MODIS time-varying albedo in the Tibetan Plateau in WRF model,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
13, 044028, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab44a, 2018. a
Murphy, J., Booth, B., Collins, M., Harris, G., Sexton, D., and Webb, M.:
A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles,
Philos. T. R. Soc. A,
365, 1993–2028, 2007. a
Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., Collins, M., and Stainforth, D. A.:
Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations,
Nature,
430, 768–772, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02771, 2004. a, b
O'Hagan, A.:
Bayesian analysis of computer code outputs: A tutorial,
Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe.,
91, 1290–1300, 2006. a
Ollinaho, P., Laine, M., Solonen, A., Haario, H., and Järvinen, H.:
NWP model forecast skill optimization via closure parameter variations,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
139, 1520–1532, 2013. a
Ozturk, T., Altinsoy, H., Türkeş, M., and Kurnaz, M.:
Simulation of temperature and precipitation climatology for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using RegCM 4.0,
Clim. Res.,
52, 63–76, 2012. a
Ozturk, T., Turp, M., Türkeş, M., and Kurnaz, M.:
Projected changes in temperature and precipitation climatology of Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by using RegCM4. 3.5,
Atmos. Res.,
183, 296–307, 2017. a
Paeth, H., Steger, C., and Merkenschlager, C.:
Climate Change – it's All About Probability,
Erdkunde,
67, 203–222, 2013. a
Price, A., Myerscough, R., Voutchkov, I., Marsh, R., and Cox, S.:
Multi-objective optimization of GENIE Earth system models,
Philos. T. R. Soc. A,
367, 2623–2633, 2009. a
Prömmel, K., Cubasch, U., and Kaspar, F.:
A regional climate model study of the impact of tectonic and orbital forcing on African precipitation and vegetation,
Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl.,
369, 154–162, 2013. a
Rockel, B. and Geyer, B.:
The performance of the regional climate model CLM in different climate regions, based on the example of precipitation,
Meteorol. Z.,
17, 487–498, 2008. a
Russo, E.: COSMO-CLM Namelists for the simulations exploring the model parameter space over the CORDEX Central Asia domain, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3523177, 2019a. a
Russo, E.: CCLM outputs Parameters Sensitivity Investigation Central Asia and Europe [Data set], Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3523243, 2019b. a
Russo, E. and Cubasch, U.: Mid-to-late Holocene temperature evolution and atmospheric dynamics over Europe in regional model simulations, Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016. a
Schirber, S., Klocke, D., Pincus, R., Quaas, J., and Anderson, J.:
Parameter estimation using data assimilation in an atmospheric general circulation model: From a perfect toward the real world,
J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
5, 58–70, 2013. a
Solman, S., Sanchez, E., Samuelsson, P., da Rocha, R., Li, L., Marengo, J., Pessacg, N., Remedio, A., Chou, S., Berbery, H., Le Treut, H., de Castro, M., and Jacob, D.:
Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: model performance and uncertainties,
Clim. Dynam.,
41, 1139–1157, 2013. a
Sørland, S., Schär, C., Lüthi, D., and Kjellström, E.:
Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
13, 074017, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aacc77, 2018. a
Stainforth, D. A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J. M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L. A., Spicer, R. A., Thorpe, A. J., and Allen M. R.:
Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases,
Nature,
433, 403–406, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03301, 2005. a
Steinhaus, H.: Sur la division des corp materiels en parties,
B. Acad. Pol. Sci.,
1, 801–804, 1956. a
Takle, E. S., Roads, J., Rockel, B., Gutowski, W. J., Arritt, R. W., Meinke, I., Jones, C. G., and Zadra, A.:
Transferability intercomparison: an opportunity for new insight on the global water cycle and energy budget,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
88, 375–384, 2007. a
Tegen, I., Hollrig, P., Chin, M., Fung, I., Jacob, D., and Penner, J.:
Contribution of different aerosol species to the global aerosol extinction optical thickness: Estimates from model results,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
102, 23895–23915, 1997. a
Tett, S., Mineter, M., Cartis, C., Rowlands, D., and Liu, P.:
Can Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Measurements Constrain Climate Predictions? Part I: Tuning,
J. Climate,
26, 9348–9366, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00595.1, 2013. a
Thévenot, O., Bouin, M., Ducrocq, V., Brossier, C., Nuissier, O., Pianezze, J., and Duffourg, F.:
Influence of the sea state on Mediterranean heavy precipitation: a case-study from HyMeX SOP1,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
142, 377–389, 2016. a
Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Busch, G., and Thiele, J.:
Increasing bioenergy production on arable land: Does the regional and local climate respond? Germany as a case study,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
119, 2711–2724, 2014. a
Vickers, D. and Mahrt, L.:
Sea-surface roughness lengths in the midlatitude coastal zone,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
136, 1089–1093, 2010. a
Von Storch, H. and Zwiers, F.:
Statistical analysis in climate research,
Cambridge University Press, 2001. a
Voudouri, A., Khain, P., Carmona, I., Bellprat, O., Grazzini, F., Avgoustoglou, E., Bettems, J., and Kaufmann, P.:
Objective calibration of numerical weather prediction models,
Atmos. Res.,
190, 128–140, 2017. a
Voudouri, A., Khain, P., Carmona, I., Avgoustoglou, E., Kaufmann, P., Grazzini, F., and Bettems, J.:
Optimization of high resolution COSMO model performance over Switzerland and Northern Italy,
Atmos. Res.,
213, 70–85, 2018. a
Wang, D., Menz, C., Simon, T., Simmer, C., and Ohlwein, C.:
Regional dynamical downscaling with CCLM over East Asia,
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys.,
121, 39–53, 2013. a
Williamson, D., Goldstein, M., Allison, L., Blaker, A., Challenor, P., Jackson, L., and Yamazaki, K.:
History matching for exploring and reducing climate model parameter space using observations and a large perturbed physics ensemble,
Clim. Dynam.,
41, 1703–1729, 2013. a
Willmott, C. J.:
Terrestrial air temperature and precipitation: Monthly and annual time series (1950–1996),
available at: http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/html_pages/README.ghcn_ts.html (last access: 1 February 2020), 2000. a
Wylie, D., Jackson, D., Menzel, W., and Bates, J.:
Trends in global cloud cover in two decades of HIRS observations,
J. Climate,
18, 3021–3031, 2005. a
Zhou, W., Tang, J., Wang, X., Wang, S., Niu, X., and Wang, Y.:
Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-EA-II domain using the COSMO-CLM model,
Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci.,
52, 107–127, 2016. a
Zhuo, H., Liu, Y., and Jin, J.:
Improvement of land surface temperature simulation over the Tibetan Plateau and the associated impact on circulation in East Asia,
Atmos. Sci. Lett.,
17, 162–168, 2016. a
Short summary
The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain...
