Articles | Volume 13, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2169-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2169-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
07 May 2020
Model evaluation paper |
| 07 May 2020
| 07 May 2020
Evaluating a fire smoke simulation algorithm in the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) by using multiple observation data sets during the Southeast Nexus (SENEX) field campaign
NOAA/OAR/Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
UMD/Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies
(CISESS), College Park, MD 20740, USA
now at: NOAA/NCEP/EMC and I.M.S.G, IMSG, Rockville, MD 20852. USA
HyunCheol Kim
NOAA/OAR/Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
UMD/Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies
(CISESS), College Park, MD 20740, USA
Pius Lee
NOAA/OAR/Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Rick Saylor
NOAA/OAR/ARL/Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division, Oak
Ridge, TN 37830, USA
YouHua Tang
NOAA/OAR/Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
UMD/Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies
(CISESS), College Park, MD 20740, USA
Daniel Tong
NOAA/OAR/Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
GMU/CISESS, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
Barry Baker
NOAA/OAR/Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
UMBC/CISESS, Baltimore, MD 21250, USA
Shobha Kondragunta
NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Chuanyu Xu
I. M. Systems Group at NOAA, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Mark G. Ruminski
NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Weiwei Chen
Northeast Institutes of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, P. R. China
Jeff Mcqueen
NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD 20740,
USA
Ivanka Stajner
NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD 20740,
USA
Related authors
Li Pan, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Li Zhang, Raffaele Montuoro, Barry Baker, Jeff McQueen, Georg A. Grell, Stuart A. McKeen, Shobha Kondragunta, Xiaoyang Zhang, Gregory J. Frost, Fanglin Yang, and Ivanka Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 431–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A GEFS-Aerosols simulation was conducted from 1 September 2019 to 30 September 2020 to evaluate the model performance of GEFS-Aerosols. The purpose of this study was to understand how aerosol chemical and physical processes affect ambient aerosol concentrations by placing aerosol wet deposition, dry deposition, reactions, gravitational deposition, and emissions into the aerosol mass balance equation.
Youhua Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, Fanglin Yang, Barry Baker, Daniel Tong, Ariel Stein, Jianping Huang, Ho-Chun Huang, Li Pan, Jeff McQueen, Ivanka Stajner, Jose Tirado-Delgado, Youngsun Jung, Melissa Yang, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Tom Ryerson, Donald Blake, Joshua Schwarz, Jose-Luis Jimenez, James Crawford, Glenn Diskin, Richard Moore, Johnathan Hair, Greg Huey, Andrew Rollins, Jack Dibb, and Xiaoyang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7977–7999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares two meteorological datasets for driving a regional air quality model: a regional meteorological model using WRF (WRF-CMAQ) and direct interpolation from an operational global model (GFS-CMAQ). In the comparison with surface measurements and aircraft data in summer 2019, these two methods show mixed performance depending on the corresponding meteorological settings. Direct interpolation is found to be a viable method to drive air quality models.
Li Zhang, Raffaele Montuoro, Stuart A. McKeen, Barry Baker, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Georg A. Grell, Judy Henderson, Li Pan, Gregory J. Frost, Jeff McQueen, Rick Saylor, Haiqin Li, Ravan Ahmadov, Jun Wang, Ivanka Stajner, Shobha Kondragunta, Xiaoyang Zhang, and Fangjun Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5337–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5337-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5337-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The NOAA’s air quality predictions contribute to protecting lives and health in the US, which requires sustainable development and improvement of forecast systems. GEFS-Aerosols v1 has been developed in a collaboration between the NOAA research laboratories for operational forecast since September 2020 in the NCEP. The predictions demonstrate substantial improvements for both composition and variability of aerosol distributions over those from the former operational system.
Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Pius Lee, Barry Baker, Daniel Tong, Rick Saylor, Ariel Stein, Jianping Huang, Ho-Chun Huang, Edward Strobach, Jeff McQueen, Li Pan, Ivanka Stajner, Jamese Sims, Jose Tirado-Delgado, Youngsun Jung, Fanglin Yang, Tanya L. Spero, and Robert C. Gilliam
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3281–3313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3281-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3281-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
NOAA's National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) continues to protect Americans from the harmful effects of air pollution, while saving billions of dollars per year. Here we describe and evaluate the development of the most advanced version of the NAQFC to date, which became operational at NOAA on 20 July 2021. The new NAQFC is based on a coupling of NOAA's operational Global Forecast System (GFS) version 16 with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.3.1.
Youhua Tang, Huisheng Bian, Zhining Tao, Luke D. Oman, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Li Pan, Jun Wang, Jeffery McQueen, and Ivanka Stajner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2527–2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical lateral boundary condition (CLBC) impact is essential for regional air quality prediction during intrusion events. We present a model mapping Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) to Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) CB05–AERO6 (Carbon Bond 5; version 6 of the aerosol module) species. Influence depends on distance from the inflow boundary and species and their regional characteristics. We use aerosol optical thickness to derive CLBCs, achieving reasonable prediction.
Youhua Tang, Mariusz Pagowski, Tianfeng Chai, Li Pan, Pius Lee, Barry Baker, Rajesh Kumar, Luca Delle Monache, Daniel Tong, and Hyun-Cheol Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4743–4758, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4743-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4743-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In order to evaluate the data assimilation tools for regional real-time PM2.5 forecasts, we applied a 3D-Var assimilation tool to adjust the aerosol initial condition by assimilating satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth and surface PM2.5 observations for a regional air quality model, which is compared to another assimilation method, optimal interpolation. We discuss the pros and cons of these two assimilation methods based on the comparison of their 1-month four-cycles-per-day runs.
Li Pan, Hyun Cheol Kim, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, YouHua Tang, Daniel Tong, Barry Baker, Shobha Kondragunta, Chuanyu Xu, Mark G. Ruminski, Weiwei Chen, Jeff Mcqueen, and Ivanka Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-207, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a system accounting for fire emissions in a chemical transport model is described. The focus of this work is to qualitatively evaluate the system's capability to capture fire signals identified by multiple observation data sets. We discuss how to use observational data correctly to filter out fire signals and synergistic use of multiple data sets together. We also address the limitations of each of the observation data sets and of the evaluation methods.
Hyun Cheol Kim, Pius Lee, Laura Judd, Li Pan, and Barry Lefer
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1111–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1111-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Fair comparison between satellite- and modeled urban NO2 column densities is important in emission inventory evaluation and regulation policy making. This study focuses on the impact of satellite footprint resolution geometry. Since OMI NO2 pixels are too coarse to resolve fine-scale urban plumes, it may cause 20–30 % bias over major cities. We introduce approaches to adjust spatial and vertical structure (downscaling & averaging kernel), and demonstrate improved agreement between sat. and model.
M. Huang, D. Tong, P. Lee, L. Pan, Y. Tang, I. Stajner, R. B. Pierce, J. McQueen, and J. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12595–12610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12595-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12595-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed Arizona dust records in 2005-2013 using multiple surface and remote sensing observation data sets. The inter-annual variability of dust events was anticorrelated with three drought indicators (PDSI, satellite NDVI and soil moisture), and stronger dust activity was found in the afternoon than in the morning due to stronger winds and drier soil. Impact of a recent dust event accompanied by a stratospheric ozone intrusion was evaluated with various observational and modeling data sets.
Christopher D. Holmes, Joshua P. Schwarz, Charles H. Fite, Anxhelo Agastra, Holly K. Nowell, Katherine Ball, T. Paul Bui, Johnathan Dean-Day, Zachary C. J. Decker, Joshua P. DiGagni, Glenn S. Diskin, Emily M. Gargulinski, Hannah Halliday, Shobha Kondragunta, John B. Nowak, David A. Peterson, Michael A. Robinson, Amber J. Soja, Rebecca A. Washenfelder, Chuanyu Xu, and Robert J. Yokelson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-307, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-307, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Smoke age is an important factor in the chemical and physical evolution of smoke. Two methods for determining the age of smoke are applied to the NASA-NOAA FIREX-AQ field campaign: one based on wind speed and distance, and another using an ensemble of modeled air parcel trajectories. Both methods are evaluated, with the trajectory method, which includes plume rise and uncertainty estimates, proving more accurate.
Chi-Tsan Wang, Patrick C. Campbell, Paul Makar, Siqi Ma, Irena Ivanova, Bok H. Baek, Wei-Ting Hung, Zachary Moon, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Rick Saylor, and Daniel Tong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-485, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forests influence air quality by altering ozone levels, but most air pollution models overlook canopy effects. Our study improves ozone predictions by incorporating forest canopy shading and turbulence into a widely used model. We found that tree cover reduces near-surface ozone by decreasing photolysis rates and diffusion inside canopy, resulting in lower ozone concentrations in densely forested areas. These findings enhance ozone surface prediction accuracy and improve air quality modeling.
Daniel L. Goldberg, M. Omar Nawaz, Congmeng Lyu, Jian He, Annmarie G. Carlton, Shobha Kondragunta, and Susan C. Anenberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1350, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This research investigates how air quality, specifically NO2 concentrations, is different under clear and cloudy skies. We find that in situ surface NO2 is, on average, +36 % larger during cloudy days versus clear sky days, with a wide distribution based on geographic region and roadway proximity: largest in the Northeast U.S. and smallest in the Southwest U.S. and near major roadways. This has implications for satellite data applications, which only use measurements in the absence of clouds.
Sina Voshtani, Dylan B. A. Jones, Debra Wunch, Drew C. Pendergrass, Paul O. Wennberg, David F. Pollard, Isamu Morino, Hirofumi Ohyama, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Frank Hase, Ralf Sussmann, Damien Weidmann, Rigel Kivi, Omaira García, Yao Té, Jack Chen, Kerry Anderson, Robin Stevens, Shobha Kondragunta, Aihua Zhu, Douglas Worthy, Senen Racki, Kathryn McKain, Maria V. Makarova, Nicholas Jones, Emmanuel Mahieu, Andrea Cadena-Caicedo, Paolo Cristofanelli, Casper Labuschagne, Elena Kozlova, Thomas Seitz, Martin Steinbacher, Reza Mahdi, and Isao Murata
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-858, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the complementarity of the greater temporal coverage provided by ground-based remote sensing data with the spatial coverage of satellite observations when these data are used together to quantify CO emissions from extreme wildfires in 2023. Our results reveal that the commonly used biomass burning emission inventories significantly underestimate the fire emissions and emphasize the importance of the ground-based remote sensing data in reducing uncertainties in the estimated emissions.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Qindan Zhu, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Matthew Coggon, Colin Harkins, Jordan Schnell, Jian He, Havala O. T. Pye, Meng Li, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Ravan Ahmadov, Eva Y. Pfannerstill, Bryan Place, Paul Wooldridge, Benjamin C. Schulze, Caleb Arata, Anthony Bucholtz, John H. Seinfeld, Carsten Warneke, Chelsea E. Stockwell, Lu Xu, Kristen Zuraski, Michael A. Robinson, J. Andrew Neuman, Patrick R. Veres, Jeff Peischl, Steven S. Brown, Allen H. Goldstein, Ronald C. Cohen, and Brian C. McDonald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5265–5286, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) fuel the production of air pollutants like ozone and particulate matter. The representation of VOC chemistry remains challenging due to its complexity in speciation and reactions. Here, we develop a chemical mechanism, RACM2B-VCP, that better represents VOC chemistry in urban areas such as Los Angeles. We also discuss the contribution of VOCs emitted from volatile chemical products and other anthropogenic sources to total VOC reactivity and O3.
Fei Liu, Steffen Beirle, Joanna Joiner, Sungyeon Choi, Zhining Tao, K. Emma Knowland, Steven J. Smith, Daniel Q. Tong, Siqi Ma, Zachary T. Fasnacht, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3717–3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using satellite data, we developed a coupled method independent of the chemical transport model to map NOx emissions across US cities. After validating our technique with synthetic data, we charted NOx emissions from 2018–2021 in 39 cities. Our results closely matched EPA estimates but also highlighted some inconsistencies in both magnitude and spatial distribution. This research can help refine strategies for monitoring and managing air quality.
Li Pan, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Li Zhang, Raffaele Montuoro, Barry Baker, Jeff McQueen, Georg A. Grell, Stuart A. McKeen, Shobha Kondragunta, Xiaoyang Zhang, Gregory J. Frost, Fanglin Yang, and Ivanka Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 431–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A GEFS-Aerosols simulation was conducted from 1 September 2019 to 30 September 2020 to evaluate the model performance of GEFS-Aerosols. The purpose of this study was to understand how aerosol chemical and physical processes affect ambient aerosol concentrations by placing aerosol wet deposition, dry deposition, reactions, gravitational deposition, and emissions into the aerosol mass balance equation.
Bok H. Baek, Carlie Coats, Siqi Ma, Chi-Tsan Wang, Yunyao Li, Jia Xing, Daniel Tong, Soontae Kim, and Jung-Hun Woo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4659–4676, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4659-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4659-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To enable the direct feedback effects of aerosols and local meteorology in an air quality modeling system without any computational bottleneck, we have developed an inline meteorology-induced emissions coupler module within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to dynamically model the complex MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) on-road mobile emissions inline without a separate dedicated emissions processing model like SMOKE.
Yunyao Li, Daniel Tong, Siqi Ma, Saulo R. Freitas, Ravan Ahmadov, Mikhail Sofiev, Xiaoyang Zhang, Shobha Kondragunta, Ralph Kahn, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Patrick Campbell, Rick Saylor, Georg Grell, and Fangjun Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3083–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Plume height is important in wildfire smoke dispersion and affects air quality and human health. We assess the impact of plume height on wildfire smoke dispersion and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. A higher plume height predicts lower pollution near the source region, but higher pollution in downwind regions, due to the faster spread of the smoke once ejected, affects pollution exceedance forecasts and the early warning of extreme air pollution events.
James D. East, Barron H. Henderson, Sergey L. Napelenok, Shannon N. Koplitz, Golam Sarwar, Robert Gilliam, Allen Lenzen, Daniel Q. Tong, R. Bradley Pierce, and Fernando Garcia-Menendez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15981–16001, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a framework that uses a computer model of air quality, along with air pollution data from satellite instruments, to estimate emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) across the Northern Hemisphere. The framework, which advances current methods to infer emissions from satellite observations, provides observationally constrained NOx estimates, including in regions of the world where emissions are highly uncertain, and can improve simulations of air pollutants relevant for health and policy.
Sebastien Garrigues, Samuel Remy, Julien Chimot, Melanie Ades, Antje Inness, Johannes Flemming, Zak Kipling, Istvan Laszlo, Angela Benedetti, Roberto Ribas, Soheila Jafariserajehlou, Bertrand Fougnie, Shobha Kondragunta, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Mark Parrington, Nicolas Bousserez, Margarita Vazquez Navarro, and Anna Agusti-Panareda
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14657–14692, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14657-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides global monitoring of aerosols using the ECMWF forecast model constrained by the assimilation of satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD). This work aims at evaluating two new satellite AODs to enhance the CAMS aerosol global forecast. It highlights the spatial and temporal differences between the satellite AOD products at the model spatial resolution, which is essential information to design multi-satellite AOD data assimilation schemes.
Youhua Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, Fanglin Yang, Barry Baker, Daniel Tong, Ariel Stein, Jianping Huang, Ho-Chun Huang, Li Pan, Jeff McQueen, Ivanka Stajner, Jose Tirado-Delgado, Youngsun Jung, Melissa Yang, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Tom Ryerson, Donald Blake, Joshua Schwarz, Jose-Luis Jimenez, James Crawford, Glenn Diskin, Richard Moore, Johnathan Hair, Greg Huey, Andrew Rollins, Jack Dibb, and Xiaoyang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7977–7999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares two meteorological datasets for driving a regional air quality model: a regional meteorological model using WRF (WRF-CMAQ) and direct interpolation from an operational global model (GFS-CMAQ). In the comparison with surface measurements and aircraft data in summer 2019, these two methods show mixed performance depending on the corresponding meteorological settings. Direct interpolation is found to be a viable method to drive air quality models.
Li Zhang, Raffaele Montuoro, Stuart A. McKeen, Barry Baker, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Georg A. Grell, Judy Henderson, Li Pan, Gregory J. Frost, Jeff McQueen, Rick Saylor, Haiqin Li, Ravan Ahmadov, Jun Wang, Ivanka Stajner, Shobha Kondragunta, Xiaoyang Zhang, and Fangjun Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5337–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5337-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5337-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The NOAA’s air quality predictions contribute to protecting lives and health in the US, which requires sustainable development and improvement of forecast systems. GEFS-Aerosols v1 has been developed in a collaboration between the NOAA research laboratories for operational forecast since September 2020 in the NCEP. The predictions demonstrate substantial improvements for both composition and variability of aerosol distributions over those from the former operational system.
Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Pius Lee, Barry Baker, Daniel Tong, Rick Saylor, Ariel Stein, Jianping Huang, Ho-Chun Huang, Edward Strobach, Jeff McQueen, Li Pan, Ivanka Stajner, Jamese Sims, Jose Tirado-Delgado, Youngsun Jung, Fanglin Yang, Tanya L. Spero, and Robert C. Gilliam
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3281–3313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3281-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3281-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
NOAA's National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) continues to protect Americans from the harmful effects of air pollution, while saving billions of dollars per year. Here we describe and evaluate the development of the most advanced version of the NAQFC to date, which became operational at NOAA on 20 July 2021. The new NAQFC is based on a coupling of NOAA's operational Global Forecast System (GFS) version 16 with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.3.1.
Siqi Ma, Daniel Tong, Lok Lamsal, Julian Wang, Xuelei Zhang, Youhua Tang, Rick Saylor, Tianfeng Chai, Pius Lee, Patrick Campbell, Barry Baker, Shobha Kondragunta, Laura Judd, Timothy A. Berkoff, Scott J. Janz, and Ivanka Stajner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16531–16553, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting high ozone gets more challenging as urban emissions decrease. How can different techniques be used to foretell the quality of air to better protect human health? We tested four techniques with the CMAQ model against observations during a field campaign over New York City. The new system proves to better predict the magnitude and timing of high ozone. These approaches can be extended to other regions to improve the predictability of high-O3 episodes in contemporary urban environments.
Adrian Chappell, Nicholas Webb, Mark Hennen, Charles Zender, Philippe Ciais, Kerstin Schepanski, Brandon Edwards, Nancy Ziegler, Sandra Jones, Yves Balkanski, Daniel Tong, John Leys, Stephan Heidenreich, Robert Hynes, David Fuchs, Zhenzhong Zeng, Marie Ekström, Matthew Baddock, Jeffrey Lee, and Tarek Kandakji
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Dust emissions influence global climate while simultaneously reducing the productive potential and resilience of landscapes to climate stressors, together impacting food security and human health. Our results indicate that tuning dust emission models to dust in the atmosphere has hidden dust emission modelling weaknesses and its poor performance. Our new approach will reduce uncertainty and driven by prognostic albedo improve Earth System Models of aerosol effects on future environmental change.
Xinxin Ye, Pargoal Arab, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Georg A. Grell, Bradley Pierce, Aditya Kumar, Paul Makar, Jack Chen, Didier Davignon, Greg R. Carmichael, Gonzalo Ferrada, Jeff McQueen, Jianping Huang, Rajesh Kumar, Louisa Emmons, Farren L. Herron-Thorpe, Mark Parrington, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Arlindo da Silva, Amber Soja, Emily Gargulinski, Elizabeth Wiggins, Johnathan W. Hair, Marta Fenn, Taylor Shingler, Shobha Kondragunta, Alexei Lyapustin, Yujie Wang, Brent Holben, David M. Giles, and Pablo E. Saide
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14427–14469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical forecasts remain significant. We present an evaluation of 12 real-time forecasting systems. Comparison of predicted smoke emissions suggests a large spread in magnitudes, with temporal patterns deviating from satellite detections. The performance for AOD and surface PM2.5 and their discrepancies highlighted the role of accurately represented spatiotemporal emission profiles in improving smoke forecasts.
Haipeng Lin, Daniel J. Jacob, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Christoph A. Keller, Thibaud M. Fritz, Sebastian D. Eastham, Louisa K. Emmons, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Rick D. Saylor, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5487–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. It allows users to select, add, and scale emissions from different sources through a configuration file with no change to the model source code. We demonstrate the implementation of HEMCO in several models, all sharing the same HEMCO core code and database library.
Hyun Cheol Kim, Soontae Kim, Mark Cohen, Changhan Bae, Dasom Lee, Rick Saylor, Minah Bae, Eunhye Kim, Byeong-Uk Kim, Jin-Ho Yoon, and Ariel Stein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10065–10080, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global outbreaks of COVID-19 offer rare opportunities of natural experiments in emission control and corresponding responses of tropospheric chemistry. This study's novel approach investigates (1) isolating the pandemic's impact from natural and anthropogenic variations, (2) emission adjustment to reproduce real-time emissions, and (3) brute-force modeling to investigate Chinese economic activities. Results provide characteristics of the region's chemistry and emissions.
Xiaoyang Chen, Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Youhua Tang, Jianping Huang, Patrick C. Campbell, Jeff Mcqueen, Havala O. T. Pye, Benjamin N. Murphy, and Daiwen Kang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3969–3993, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The continuously updated National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) provides air quality forecasts. To support the development of the next-generation NAQFC, we evaluate a prototype of GFSv15-CMAQv5.0.2. The performance and the potential improvements for the system are discussed. This study can provide a scientific basis for further development of NAQFC and help it to provide more accurate air quality forecasts to the public over the contiguous United States.
Youhua Tang, Huisheng Bian, Zhining Tao, Luke D. Oman, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Li Pan, Jun Wang, Jeffery McQueen, and Ivanka Stajner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2527–2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical lateral boundary condition (CLBC) impact is essential for regional air quality prediction during intrusion events. We present a model mapping Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) to Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) CB05–AERO6 (Carbon Bond 5; version 6 of the aerosol module) species. Influence depends on distance from the inflow boundary and species and their regional characteristics. We use aerosol optical thickness to derive CLBCs, achieving reasonable prediction.
Hai Zhang, Shobha Kondragunta, Istvan Laszlo, and Mi Zhou
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 5955–5975, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5955-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) retrieve high temporal resolution aerosol optical depth, which is a measure of the aerosol quantity within the atmospheric column. This work introduces an algorithm that improves the accuracy of the aerosol optical depth retrievals from GOES. The resulting data product can be used in monitoring the air quality and climate change research.
Hyun Cheol Kim, Tianfeng Chai, Ariel Stein, and Shobha Kondragunta
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10259–10277, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10259-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10259-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Smoke forecasts have been challenged by high uncertainty in fire emission estimates. We develop an inverse modeling system, the HYSPLIT-based Emissions Inverse Modeling System for wildfires, that estimates wildfire emissions from the transport and dispersion of smoke plumes as measured by satellite observations. Using NOAA HYSPLIT and GOES Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP), the system resolves smoke source strength as a function of time and vertical level and outperforms current operational system.
Hao He, Xin-Zhong Liang, Chao Sun, Zhining Tao, and Daniel Q. Tong
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3191–3208, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3191-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the trend of US ozone pollution from 1990 to 2015 using EPA observations and computer simulations. Observations indicated a decrease in peak ozone at noon due to regulations and a slight increase in ozone in early morning and late afternoon possibly. Our modeling system confirmed these findings and provided detailed information about ozone photochemistry. These results revealed the success of previous control measures and provide scientific evidence for the future regulations.
Siqi Ma, Xuelei Zhang, Chao Gao, Daniel Q. Tong, Aijun Xiu, Guangjian Wu, Xinyuan Cao, Ling Huang, Hongmei Zhao, Shichun Zhang, Sergio Ibarra-Espinosa, Xin Wang, Xiaolan Li, and Mo Dan
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4603–4625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4603-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4603-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Dust storms are thought to be a worldwide societal issue, and numerical modeling is an effective way to help us to predict dust events. Here we present the first comprehensive evaluation of dust emission modules in four commonly used air quality models for northeastern China. The results showed that most of these models were able to capture this dust event and indicated the dust source maps should be carefully selected or replaced with a new one that is constructed with local data.
Jingfeng Huang, Istvan Laszlo, Lorraine A. Remer, Hongqing Liu, Hai Zhang, Pubu Ciren, and Shobha Kondragunta
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 5813–5825, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5813-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5813-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A new snow/snowmelt screening approach – combining a normalized difference snow index (NDSI)- and brightness temperature (BT)-based snow test, snow adjacency test and spatial filter – is proposed to significantly reduce the snow/snowmelt contamination in the NOAA’s operational Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) product, particularly over Northern Hemisphere high-latitude regions during spring thaw.
Jun Wang, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Vijay Tallapragada, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Shobha Kondragunta, Arlindo da Silva, Xiaoyang Zhang, Sheng-Po Chen, Shih-Wei Wei, Anton S. Darmenov, Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Prabhat Koner, and Andy Harris
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2315–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2315-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2315-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) version 2.0 for global multispecies aerosol forecast was developed at NCEP. Additional sea salt, sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosol species were included. This implementation advanced the global aerosol forecast capability and made a step forward toward developing a global aerosol data assimilation system. The aerosol products from this system have been provided to meet the stakeholder's needs.
Steven J. Brey, Mark Ruminski, Samuel A. Atwood, and Emily V. Fischer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1745–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1745-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1745-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first regional summertime smoke transport climatology for North America using observed smoke plume and fire location data. We show that these data are well correlated with existing biomass burning emission inventories. We present the abundance of smoke over different regions of North America and estimate where the smoke comes from, the age of smoke, and how often the smoke influences ground-level air quality.
Youhua Tang, Mariusz Pagowski, Tianfeng Chai, Li Pan, Pius Lee, Barry Baker, Rajesh Kumar, Luca Delle Monache, Daniel Tong, and Hyun-Cheol Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4743–4758, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4743-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4743-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In order to evaluate the data assimilation tools for regional real-time PM2.5 forecasts, we applied a 3D-Var assimilation tool to adjust the aerosol initial condition by assimilating satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth and surface PM2.5 observations for a regional air quality model, which is compared to another assimilation method, optimal interpolation. We discuss the pros and cons of these two assimilation methods based on the comparison of their 1-month four-cycles-per-day runs.
Li Pan, Hyun Cheol Kim, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, YouHua Tang, Daniel Tong, Barry Baker, Shobha Kondragunta, Chuanyu Xu, Mark G. Ruminski, Weiwei Chen, Jeff Mcqueen, and Ivanka Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-207, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a system accounting for fire emissions in a chemical transport model is described. The focus of this work is to qualitatively evaluate the system's capability to capture fire signals identified by multiple observation data sets. We discuss how to use observational data correctly to filter out fire signals and synergistic use of multiple data sets together. We also address the limitations of each of the observation data sets and of the evaluation methods.
Hyun Cheol Kim, Eunhye Kim, Changhan Bae, Jeong Hoon Cho, Byeong-Uk Kim, and Soontae Kim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10315–10332, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10315-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study is intended to provide reference information regarding quantitative estimation of regional contributions and model uncertainty in meteorology simulations and emissions inventories. Simulated PM concentration is sensitive to meteorology, but estimated contributions are mostly robust. Regional contributions are also found to be sensitive to the choice of emissions inventories. The modeled results should be considered with caution when interpreted for emission regulation policy making.
Min Huang, Gregory R. Carmichael, James H. Crawford, Armin Wisthaler, Xiwu Zhan, Christopher R. Hain, Pius Lee, and Alex B. Guenther
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3085–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3085-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3085-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Various sensitivity simulations during two airborne campaigns were performed to assess the impact of different initialization methods and model resolutions on NUWRF-modeled weather states, heat fluxes, and the follow-on MEGAN isoprene emission calculations. Proper land initialization is shown to be important to the coupled weather modeling and the follow-on emission modeling, which is also critical to accurately representing other processes in air quality modeling and data assimilation.
Chaopeng Hong, Qiang Zhang, Yang Zhang, Youhua Tang, Daniel Tong, and Kebin He
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2447–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2447-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2447-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A regional coupled climate–chemistry modeling system using the dynamical downscaling technique was established and evaluated. The modeling system performed well for both the climatological and the short-term air quality applications over east Asia. Regional models outperformed global models in regional climate and air quality predictions. The coupled modeling system improved the model performance, although some biases remained in the aerosol–cloud–radiation variables.
Hyun Cheol Kim, Soontae Kim, Seok-Woo Son, Pius Lee, Chun-Sil Jin, Eunhye Kim, Byeong-Uk Kim, Fong Ngan, Changhan Bae, Chang-Keun Song, and Ariel Stein
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-673, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, frequent occurrence of severe haze events in East Asia is one of the most serious public concerns in this region. We demonstrate that daily pollutant transport patterns in East Asia are visible from satellite images when inspected with corresponding synoptic weather analyses. Our manuscript focuses on the possible role of meteorology, especially by the routine passages of synoptic systems, on the production and removal of regional pollution in East Asia.
Xinyi Dong, Joshua S. Fu, Kan Huang, Daniel Tong, and Guoshun Zhuang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8157–8180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8157-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8157-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model has been further developed in terms of simulating natural wind-blown dust in this study, with a series of modifications aimed at improving the model's capability to predict the emission, transport, and chemical reactions of dust aerosols. Evaluation with observations suggested improved model performance by correcting the double counting of soil moisture impact, applying source-dependent speciation profile, and implementing heterogeneous chemitry.
Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Arlindo da Silva, Jun Wang, Shrinivas Moorthi, Mian Chin, Peter Colarco, Youhua Tang, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Shen-Po Chen, Hui-Ya Chuang, Hann-Ming Henry Juang, Jeffery McQueen, and Mark Iredell
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1905-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1905-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols have an important effect on the Earth's climate and implications for public health. NASA has partnered with NOAA to transfer GOCART aerosol model to NCEP, enabling the first global aerosol forecasting system at NOAA/NCEP. This collaboration reflects an effective research-to-operation transition, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders and to allow the effects of aerosols on weather and climate prediction to be considered.
Hyun Cheol Kim, Pius Lee, Laura Judd, Li Pan, and Barry Lefer
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1111–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1111-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Fair comparison between satellite- and modeled urban NO2 column densities is important in emission inventory evaluation and regulation policy making. This study focuses on the impact of satellite footprint resolution geometry. Since OMI NO2 pixels are too coarse to resolve fine-scale urban plumes, it may cause 20–30 % bias over major cities. We introduce approaches to adjust spatial and vertical structure (downscaling & averaging kernel), and demonstrate improved agreement between sat. and model.
Xiangshang Li, Yunsoo Choi, Beata Czader, Anirban Roy, Hyuncheol Kim, Barry Lefer, and Shuai Pan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3127–3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3127-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3127-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We performed a a month-long sensitivity study of obs-nudging on meteorology and ozone chemistry. Notable increases in temperature and wind performance were observed after obs-nudging with hourly nudging files. PBL height also matched better in the sensitivity case. The model ozone improved at ground level and aloft but to a lesser degree. An examination of a high ozone episode showed that the current nudging process does not perform consistently – quite well at times while poor at other times.
Q. Xiao, H. Zhang, M. Choi, S. Li, S. Kondragunta, J. Kim, B. Holben, R. C. Levy, and Y. Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1255–1269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1255-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1255-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Using ground AOD measurements from AERONET, DRAGON-Asia Campaign, and handheld sunphotometers, we evaluated emerging aerosol products from VIIRS, GOCI, and Terra and Aqua MODIS (Collection 6) in East Asia in 2012–2013. We found that satellite aerosol products performed better in tracking the day-to-day variability than the high-resolution spatial variability. VIIRS EDR and GOCI products provided the most accurate AOD retrievals, while VIIRS IP and MODIS C6 3 km products had positive biases.
M. Huang, D. Tong, P. Lee, L. Pan, Y. Tang, I. Stajner, R. B. Pierce, J. McQueen, and J. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12595–12610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12595-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12595-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed Arizona dust records in 2005-2013 using multiple surface and remote sensing observation data sets. The inter-annual variability of dust events was anticorrelated with three drought indicators (PDSI, satellite NDVI and soil moisture), and stronger dust activity was found in the afternoon than in the morning due to stronger winds and drier soil. Impact of a recent dust event accompanied by a stratospheric ozone intrusion was evaluated with various observational and modeling data sets.
H. C. Kim, P. Lee, F. Ngan, Y. Tang, H. L. Yoo, and L. Pan
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2959–2965, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2959-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2959-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the evaluation of regional air quality model's performance based on the cloud information from satellites. While cloud information is crucial in photochemistry model, the definitions of cloud fraction from model and satellite are not physically consistent. We demonstrate that improper modeling of cloud fraction is correlated with surface ozone bias, and we also show that current model cloud field might be too bright, causing an overestimation of surface ozone level.
P. A. Cleary, N. Fuhrman, L. Schulz, J. Schafer, J. Fillingham, H. Bootsma, J. McQueen, Y. Tang, T. Langel, S. McKeen, E. J. Williams, and S. S. Brown
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5109–5122, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5109-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines ozone mixing ratios over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) observations in southeastern Wisconsin, and as predicted by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Over water, ozone was determined to be an average of 3.8ppb higher than shoreline observations but overpredicted by the CMAQ model by as much as 11-16ppb midday.
R. M. Hoff, S. Kondragunta, P. Ciren, C. Xu, H. Zhang, and A. Huff
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-7-10131-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-7-10131-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn
T. Chai, H.-C. Kim, P. Lee, D. Tong, L. Pan, Y. Tang, J. Huang, J. McQueen, M. Tsidulko, and I. Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1831-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1831-2013, 2013
H. Zhang, R. M. Hoff, S. Kondragunta, I. Laszlo, and A. Lyapustin
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 471–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-471-2013, 2013
R. D. Saylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 693–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-693-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-693-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
Optimized dynamic mode decomposition for reconstruction and forecasting of atmospheric chemistry data
Interpolating turbulent heat fluxes missing from a prairie observation on the Tibetan Plateau using artificial intelligence models
Carbon dioxide plume dispersion simulated at the hectometer scale using DALES: model formulation and observational evaluation
Low-level jets in the North and Baltic seas: mesoscale model sensitivity and climatology using WRF V4.2.1
SynRad v1.0: a radar forward operator to simulate synthetic weather radar observations from volcanic ash clouds
Chempath 1.0: an open-source pathway analysis program for photochemical models
PALACE v1.0: Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model
Atmospheric moisture tracking with WAM2layers v3
A new set of indicators for model evaluation complementing FAIRMODE's modelling quality objective (MQO)
Impact of multiple radar wind profiler data assimilation on convective-scale short-term rainfall forecasts: OSSE studies over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region
New submodel for emissions from Explosive Volcanic ERuptions (EVER v1.1) within the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy, version 2.55.1)
Quantifying the oscillatory evolution of simulated boundary-layer cloud fields using Gaussian process regression
Numerical investigations on the modelling of ultrafine particles in SSH-aerosol-v1.3a: size resolution and redistribution
The third Met Office Unified Model–JULES Regional Atmosphere and Land Configuration, RAL3
The sensitivity of aerosol data assimilation to vertical profiles: case study of dust storm assimilation with LOTOS-EUROS v2.2
Knowledge-inspired fusion strategies for the inference of PM2.5 values with a neural network
Tuning the ICON-A 2.6.4 climate model with machine-learning-based emulators and history matching
A novel method for quantifying the contribution of regional transport to PM2.5 in Beijing (2013–2020): combining machine learning with concentration-weighted trajectory analysis
Quantification of CO2 hotspot emissions from OCO-3 SAM CO2 satellite images using deep learning methods
Diagnosis of winter precipitation types using the spectral bin model (version 1DSBM-19M): comparison of five methods using ICE-POP 2018 field experiment data
Improving winter condition simulations in SURFEX-TEB v9.0 with a multi-layer snow model and ice
UA-ICON with the NWP physics package (version ua-icon-2.1): mean state and variability of the middle atmosphere
Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) 2.0: an improved research and stakeholder tool for monitoring total methane emissions with high resolution worldwide using TROPOMI satellite observations
HTAP3 Fires: towards a multi-model, multi-pollutant study of fire impacts
Using a data-driven statistical model to better evaluate surface turbulent heat fluxes in weather and climate numerical models: a demonstration study
Pochva: a new hydro-thermal process model in soil, snow, and vegetation for application in atmosphere numerical models
ClimKern v1.2: a new Python package and kernel repository for calculating radiative feedbacks
Accounting for effects of coagulation and model uncertainties in particle number concentration estimates based on measurements from sampling lines – a Bayesian inversion approach with SLIC v1.0
Top-down CO emission estimates using TROPOMI CO data in the TM5-4DVAR (r1258) inverse modeling suit
The Multi-Compartment Hg Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP): mercury modeling to support international environmental policy
Similarity-based analysis of atmospheric organic compounds for machine learning applications
The Atmospheric Potential Oxygen forward Model Intercomparison Project (APO-MIP1): Evaluating simulated atmospheric transport of air-sea gas exchange tracers and APO flux products
Porting the Meso-NH atmospheric model on different GPU architectures for the next generation of supercomputers (version MESONH-v55-OpenACC)
Estimation of aerosol and cloud radiative heating rate in the tropical stratosphere using a radiative kernel method
Development of a High-Resolution Coupled SHiELD-MOM6 Model. Part I – Model Overview, Coupling Technique, and Validation in a Regional Setup
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
NeuralMie (v1.0): an aerosol optics emulator
A REtrieval Method for optical and physical Aerosol Properties in the stratosphere (REMAPv1)
Simulation performance of planetary boundary layer schemes in WRF v4.3.1 for near-surface wind over the western Sichuan Basin: a single-site assessment
FootNet v1.0: development of a machine learning emulator of atmospheric transport
Updates and evaluation of NOAA's online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Improving the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
Meghana Velagar, Christoph Keller, and J. Nathan Kutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4667–4684, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4667-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4667-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We develop the data-driven method of dynamic mode decomposition for producing a robust and stable surrogate reduced-order model of atmospheric chemistry dynamics. The model is computationally efficient, provides interpretable patterns of activity, and produces uncertainty quantification metrics. It is ideal for the forecasting of atmospheric chemistry in a computationally tractable manner.
Quanzhe Hou, Zhiqiu Gao, Zexia Duan, and Minghui Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4625–4641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4625-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4625-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates various machine learning and statistical methods for interpolating turbulent heat flux data over the Tibetan Plateau. The Transformer model showed the best performance, leading to the development of the Transformer_CNN model, which combines global and local attention mechanisms. Results show that Transformer_CNN outperforms the other models and was successfully applied to interpolate heat flux data from 2007 to 2016.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Fredrik Jansson, Bart J. H. van Stratum, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4571-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new simulation platform based on the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) to simulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their dispersion in turbulent environments at a hectometer resolution. This model incorporates both anthropogenic emission inventories and online ecosystem fluxes. Simulation results for the main urban area in the Netherlands demonstrate the strong potential of DALES to improve CO2 emission modeling and to support mitigation strategies.
Bjarke T. E. Olsen, Andrea N. Hahmann, Nicolas G. Alonso-de-Linaje, Mark Žagar, and Martin Dörenkämper
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4499–4533, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level jets (LLJs) are strong winds in the lower atmosphere that are important for wind energy as turbines get taller. This study compares a weather model (WRF) with real data across five North and Baltic Sea sites. Adjusting the model improved accuracy over the widely used ERA5. In key offshore regions, LLJs occur 10–15 % of the time and significantly boost wind power, especially in spring and summer, contributing up to 30 % of total capacity in some areas.
Vishnu Nair, Anujah Mohanathan, Michael Herzog, David G. Macfarlane, and Duncan A. Robertson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4417–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4417-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4417-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A numerical model that simulates the measurement processes behind the ground-based radars used to detect volcanic ash clouds is introduced. Using weather radars to detect volcanic clouds is not ideal, as fine ash particles are smaller than raindrops and remain undetected. We evaluate the performance of weather radars to study ash clouds and to identify optimal frequencies that balance the trade-off between a higher return signal and the higher path attenuation that comes at these higher frequencies.
Daniel Garduno Ruiz, Colin Goldblatt, and Anne-Sofie Ahm
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4433–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4433-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Photochemical models describe how the composition of the atmosphere changes due to chemical reactions, transport, and other processes. These models are useful for studying the composition of the Earth's and other planets' atmospheres. Understanding the results of these models can be difficult. Here, we build on previous work to develop open-source code that can identify the reaction chains (pathways) that produce the results of these models, facilitating the understanding of these results.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4353–4398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, this model is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Peter Kalverla, Imme Benedict, Chris Weijenborg, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4335–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new version of WAM2layers (Water Accounting Model – 2 layers), a computer program that tracks how the weather brings water from one place to another. It uses data from weather and climate models, whose resolution is steadily increasing. Processing the latest data had become a challenge, and the updates presented here ensure that WAM2layers runs smoothly again. We also made it easier to use the program and to understand its source code. This makes it more transparent, reliable, and easier to maintain.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, and Enrico Pisoni
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4231–4245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4231-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess relevance and utility indicators by evaluating nine Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service models in calculated air pollutant values. For NO2, the results highlight difficulties at traffic stations. For PM2.5 and PM10 the bias and winter–summer gradients reveal issues. O3 evaluation shows that seasonal gradients are useful. Overall, the indicators reveal model limitations, yet there is a need to reconsider the strictness of some indicators for certain pollutants.
Juan Zhao, Jianping Guo, and Xiaohui Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4075–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4075-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A series of observing system simulation experiments are conducted to assess the impact of multiple radar wind profiler (RWP) networks on convective-scale numerical weather prediction. Results from three southwest-type heavy rainfall cases in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region suggest the added forecast skill of ridge and foothill networks associated with the Taihang Mountains over the existing RWP network. This research provides valuable guidance for designing optimal RWP networks in the region.
Matthias Kohl, Christoph Brühl, Jennifer Schallock, Holger Tost, Patrick Jöckel, Adrian Jost, Steffen Beirle, Michael Höpfner, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3985–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3985-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3985-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
SO2 from explosive volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere can oxidize and form sulfur aerosols, potentially persisting for several years. We developed a new submodel, Explosive Volcanic ERuptions (EVER), that seamlessly includes stratospheric volcanic SO2 emissions in global numerical simulations based on a novel standard historical model setup, successfully evaluated with satellite observations. Sensitivity studies on the Nabro eruption in 2011 evaluate different emission methods.
Gunho Loren Oh and Philip H. Austin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3921–3940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3921-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3921-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
It is difficult to study the behaviour of a cloud field due to internal fluctuations and observational noise. We perform a high-resolution simulation of the boundary-layer cloud field and introduce statistical and numerical techniques, including machine-learning models, to study the evolution of the cloud field, which shows a periodic behaviour. We aim to use the numerical techniques to identify the underlying behaviour within noisy observations.
Oscar Jacquot and Karine Sartelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3965–3984, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling the size distribution and the number concentration is important to represent ultrafine particles. A new analytic formulation is presented to compute coagulation partition coefficients, allowing us to lower the numerical diffusion associated with the resolution of aerosol dynamics. The significance of this effect is assessed in a 0D box model and over greater Paris with a chemistry transport model, using different size resolutions of the particle distribution.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3819–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre- and sub-kilometre-scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and an improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Ting Yang, Xi Chen, Arjo Segers, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Yixuan Gu, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Hong Liao, and Wei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3781–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3781-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol data assimilation has gained popularity as it combines the advantages of modelling and observation. However, few studies have addressed the challenges in the prior vertical structure. Different observations are assimilated to examine the sensitivity of assimilation to vertical structure. Results show that assimilation can optimize the dust field in general. However, if the prior introduces an incorrect structure, the assimilation can significantly deteriorate the integrity of the aerosol profile.
Matthieu Dabrowski, José Mennesson, Jérôme Riedi, Chaabane Djeraba, and Pierre Nabat
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3707–3733, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3707-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3707-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work focuses on the prediction of aerosol concentration values at the ground level, which are a strong indicator of air quality, using artificial neural networks. A study of different variables and their efficiency as inputs for these models is also proposed and reveals that the best results are obtained when using all of them. Comparison between network architectures and information fusion methods allows for the extraction of knowledge on the most efficient methods in the context of this study.
Pauline Bonnet, Lorenzo Pastori, Mierk Schwabe, Marco Giorgetta, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3681–3706, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tuning a climate model means adjusting uncertain parameters in the model to best match observations like the global radiation balance and cloud cover. This is usually done by running many simulations of the model with different settings, which can be time-consuming and relies heavily on expert knowledge. To make this process faster and more objective, we developed a machine learning emulator to create a large ensemble and apply a method called history matching to find the best settings.
Kang Hu, Hong Liao, Dantong Liu, Jianbing Jin, Lei Chen, Siyuan Li, Yangzhou Wu, Changhao Wu, Shitong Zhao, Xiaotong Jiang, Ping Tian, Kai Bi, Ye Wang, and Delong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3623–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study combines machine learning with concentration-weighted trajectory analysis to quantify regional transport PM2.5. From 2013–2020, local emissions dominated Beijing's pollution events. The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan reduced regional transport pollution, but the eastern region showed the smallest decrease. Beijing should prioritize local emission reduction while considering the east region's contributions in future strategies.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3607–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a deep learning method to estimate CO2 emissions from power plants using satellite images. Trained and validated on simulated data, our model accurately predicts emissions despite challenges like cloud cover. When applied to real OCO3 satellite images, the results closely match reported emissions. This study shows that neural networks trained on simulations can effectively analyse real satellite data, offering a new way to monitor CO2 emissions from space.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob T. Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander V. Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and GyuWon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3559–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Microphysics model-based diagnosis, such as the spectral bin model (SBM), has recently been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM has a relatively higher accuracy for dry-snow and wet-snow events, whereas it has lower accuracy for rain events. When the microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, the accuracy for rain events improved.
Gabriel Colas, Valéry Masson, François Bouttier, Ludovic Bouilloud, Laura Pavan, and Virve Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3453–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In winter, snow- and ice-covered artificial surfaces are important aspects of the urban climate. They may influence the magnitude of the urban heat island effect, but this is still unclear. In this study, we improved the representation of the snow and ice cover in the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban climate model. Evaluations have shown that the results are promising for using TEB to study the climate of cold cities.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique A. Siddiqui, Claudia C. Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3359–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with an upper-atmospheric extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). We optimized the parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations and achieved realistic modeling of the thermal and dynamic states of the mesopause regions. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Lucas A. Estrada, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, Zichong Chen, Nicholas Balasus, Sarah E. Hancock, Megan He, James D. East, Todd A. Mooring, Alexander Oort Alonso, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Ilse Aben, Sabour Baray, Kevin W. Bowman, John R. Worden, Felipe J. Cardoso-Saldaña, Emily Reidy, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is a top policy concern for mitigating anthropogenic climate change. The Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) is an advanced, cloud-based software that translates satellite observations into actionable emissions data. Here we present IMI version 2.0 with vastly expanded capabilities. These updates enable a wider range of scientific and stakeholder applications from individual basin to global scales with continuous emissions monitoring.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Maurin Zouzoua, Sophie Bastin, Fabienne Lohou, Marie Lothon, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Mathilde Jome, Cécile Mallet, Laurent Barthes, and Guylaine Canut
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3211–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes using a statistical model to freeze errors due to differences in environmental forcing when evaluating the surface turbulent heat fluxes from numerical simulations with observations. The statistical model is first built with observations and then applied to the simulated environment to generate possibly observed fluxes. This novel method provides insight into differently evaluating the numerical formulation of turbulent heat fluxes with a long period of observational data.
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3175–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the result of many years of effort of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, and snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of the author's research on physical processes at the surface–atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
Matti Niskanen, Aku Seppänen, Henri Oikarinen, Miska Olin, Panu Karjalainen, Santtu Mikkonen, and Kari Lehtinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2983–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Particle size is a key factor determining the properties of aerosol particles which have a major influence on the climate and on human health. When measuring the particle sizes, however, sometimes the sampling lines that transfer the aerosol to the measurement device distort the size distribution, making the measurement unreliable. We propose a method to correct for the distortions and estimate the true particle sizes, improving measurement accuracy.
Johann Rasmus Nüß, Nikos Daskalakis, Fabian Günther Piwowarczyk, Angelos Gkouvousis, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Mihalis Vrekoussis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2861–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate carbon monoxide emissions through inverse modeling, an approach where measurements of tracers in the atmosphere are fed to a model to calculate backwards in time (inverse) where the tracers came from. We introduce measurements from a new satellite instrument and show that, in most places globally, these on their own sufficiently constrain the emissions. This alleviates the need for additional datasets, which could shorten the delay for future carbon monoxide source estimates.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2747–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2701–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification of organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning models in atmospheric sciences.
Yuming Jin, Britton B. Stephens, Matthew C. Long, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Joram J. D. Hooghiem, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Shamil Maksyutov, Eric J. Morgan, Yosuke Niwa, Prabir K. Patra, Christian Rödenbeck, and Jesse Vance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out a comprehensive atmospheric transport model (ATM) intercomparison project. This project aims to evaluate errors in ATMs and three air-sea O2 exchange products by comparing model simulations with observations collected from surface stations, ships, and aircraft. We also present a model evaluation framework to independently quantify transport-related and flux-related biases that contribute to model-observation discrepancies in atmospheric tracer distributions.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Joseph Mouallem, Kun Gao, Brandon G. Reichl, Lauren Chilutti, Lucas Harris, Rusty Benson, Niki Zadeh, Jing Chen, Jan-Huey Chen, and Cheng Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1690, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new high-resolution model that couple the atmosphere and ocean to better simulate extreme weather events. It combines GFDL’s advanced atmospheric and ocean models with a powerful coupling system that allows robust and efficient two-way interactions. Simulations show the model accurately captures hurricane behavior and its impact on the ocean. It also runs efficiently on supercomputers. This model is a key step toward improving extreme weather forecast.
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Graham Mann, and Thomas Peter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol particles in the stratosphere affect our climate. Climate models therefore need an accurate description of their properties and evolution. Satellites measure how strongly aerosol particles extinguish light passing through the stratosphere. We describe a method to use such aerosol extinction data to retrieve the number and sizes of the aerosol particles and calculate their optical effects. The resulting data sets for models are validated against ground-based and balloon observations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Cited articles
Achtemeier, G. L., Goodrick, S. A., Liu, Y. Q., Garcia-Menendez, F., Hu, Y.
T., and Odman, M. T.: Modeling Smoke Plume-Rise and Dispersion from Southern
United States Prescribed Burns with Daysmoke, Atmosphere, 2, 358–388,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos2030358, 2011.
Aiken, A. C., de Foy, B., Wiedinmyer, C., DeCarlo, P. F., Ulbrich, I. M., Wehrli, M. N., Szidat, S., Prevot, A. S. H., Noda, J., Wacker, L., Volkamer, R., Fortner, E., Wang, J., Laskin, A., Shutthanandan, V., Zheng, J., Zhang, R., Paredes-Miranda, G., Arnott, W. P., Molina, L. T., Sosa, G., Querol, X., and Jimenez, J. L.: Mexico city aerosol analysis during MILAGRO using high resolution aerosol mass spectrometry at the urban supersite (T0) – Part 2: Analysis of the biomass burning contribution and the non-fossil carbon fraction, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 5315–5341, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-5315-2010, 2010.
Alvarado, M. J., Lonsdale, C. R., Yokelson, R. J., Akagi, S. K., Coe, H., Craven, J. S., Fischer, E. V., McMeeking, G. R., Seinfeld, J. H., Soni, T., Taylor, J. W., Weise, D. R., and Wold, C. E.: Investigating the links between ozone and organic aerosol chemistry in a biomass burning plume from a prescribed fire in California chaparral, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6667–6688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6667-2015, 2015.
Baker, K. R., Woody, M. C., Tonnesen, G. S., Hutzell, W., Pye, H. O. T.,
Beaver, M. R., Pouliot, G., and Pierce, T.: Contribution of regional-scale
fire events to ozone and PM2.5 air quality estimated by photochemical
modeling approaches, Atmos. Environ., 140, 539–554,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.06.032, 2016.
Briggs, G. A.: Plume rise predictions, in: Lectures on air pollution and environmental impact analyses, Boston, 59–111, 1975.
Carlton, A. G., Bhave, P. V., Napelenok, S. L., Edney, E. D., Sarwar, G.,
Pinder,R. W., Pouliot, G. A., and Houyoux, M.: Model Representation of
Secondary Organic Aerosol in CMAQv4.7, Environ. Sci.
Technol., 44, 8553–8560, https://doi.org/10.1021/es100636q, 2010.
Chai, T., Kim, H.-C., Lee, P., Tong, D., Pan, L., Tang, Y., Huang, J., McQueen, J., Tsidulko, M., and Stajner, I.: Evaluation of the United States National Air Quality Forecast Capability experimental real-time predictions in 2010 using Air Quality System ozone and NO2 measurements, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1831-2013, 2013.
Davis, A. Y., Ottmar, R., Liu, Y. Q., Goodrick, S., Achtemeier, G., Gullett,
B., Aurell, J., Stevens, W., Greenwald, R., Hu, Y. T., Russell, A., Hiers,
J. K., and Odman, M. T.: Fire emission uncertainties and their effect on
smoke dispersion predictions: a case study at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida,
USA, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 24, 276–285,
https://doi.org/10.1071/wf13071, 2015.
DeBell, L. J., Talbot, R. W., Dibb, J. E., Munger, J. W., Fischer, E. V.,
and Frolking, S. E.: A major regional air pollution event in the
northeastern United States caused by extensive forest fires in Quebec,
Canada, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D19,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jd004840, 2004.
de Gouw, J. A., Warneke, C., Parrish, D. D., Holloway, J. S., Trainer, M.,
and Fehsenfeld, F. C.: Emission sources and ocean uptake of acetonitrile
(CH3CN) in the atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, D11,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd002897, 2003.
Draxler, R. R. and Hess, G. D.: An overview of the HYSPLIT_4
modelling system for trajectories, dispersion and deposition, Aust.
Meteorol. Mag., 47, 295–308, 1998.
Dreessen, J., Sullivan, J., and Delgado, R.: Observations and impacts of
transported Canadian wildfire smoke on ozone and aerosol air quality in the
Maryland region on June 9–12, 2015, J. Air Waste Manage.
Assoc., 66, 842–862, https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2016.1161674, 2016.
Drury, S. A., Larkin, N., Strand, T. T., Huang, S. M., Strenfel, S. J.,
Banwell, E. M., O'Brien, T. E., and Raffuse, S. M.: Intercomparison of fire size, fuel loading, fuel consumption, and smoke emissions estimates on the 2006 Tripod Fire, Washington, USA, Fire Ecol., 10, 56–83,
https://doi.org/10.4996/fireecology.1001056, 2014.
Eatough, D. J., Eatough, D. A., Lewis, L., and Lewis, E. A.: Fine
particulate chemical composition and light extinction at Canyonlands
National Park using organic particulate material concentrations obtained
with a multisystem, multichannel diffusion denuder sampler, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 101, 19515–19531, https://doi.org/10.1029/95jd01385,
1996.
Erbrink, H. J.: Plume rise in different atmospheres – a practical scheme and
some comparisons with lidar measurements, Atmos. Environ., 28,
3625–36336, https://doi.org/10.1016/1352-2310(94)00197-s, 1994.
Giglio, L., Descloitres, J., Justice, C. O., and Kaufman, Y. J.: An enhanced
contextual fire detection algorithm for MODIS, Remote Sens.
Environ., 87, 273–282, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0034-4257(03)00184-6, 2003.
Hamm, S. and Warneck, P.: The interhemispheric distribution and the budget
of acetonitrile in the troposphere, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 95, 20593–20606, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD12p20593, 1990.
Hardy, C. C. and Hardy, C. E.: Fire danger rating in the United States of
America: an evolution since 1916, Int. J. Wildl. Fire,
16, 217–231, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf06076, 2007.
Herron-Thorpe, F. L., Mount, G. H., Emmons, L. K., Lamb, B. K., Jaffe, D. A., Wigder, N. L., Chung, S. H., Zhang, R., Woelfle, M. D., and Vaughan, J. K.: Air quality simulations of wildfires in the Pacific Northwest evaluated with surface and satellite observations during the summers of 2007 and 2008, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12533–12551, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12533-2014, 2014
Holzinger, R., Warneke, C., Hansel, A., Jordan, A., Lindinger, W., Scharffe,
D. H., Schade, G., and Crutzen, P. J.: Biomass burning as a source of
formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, methanol, acetone, acetonitrile, and hydrogen
cyanide, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1161–1164.
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999gl900156, 1999.
Hu, X. F., Yu, C., Tian, D., Ruminski, M., Robertson, K., Waller, L. A., and
Liu, Y.: Comparison of the Hazard Mapping System (HMS) fire product to
ground-based fire records in Georgia, USA, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 121, 2901–2910, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024448, 2016.
Huang, J., McQueen, J., Wilczak, J., Djalalova, I., Stajner, I., Shafran,
P., Allured, D., Lee, P., Pan, L., Tong, D., Huang, H., DiMego, G.,
Upadhayay, S., and Monache, L.: Improving NOAA NAQFC PM2.5 predictions with
a bias correction approach, Weather Forecast., 32, 407–421, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0118.1,
2017.
Huang, H. C., Pan, L., McQueen, J., Lee, P., ONeill, S. M., Ruminski, M., Shafran, P., Huang, J., Stajner, I., Upadhayay, S., and Larkin, N. K.: The Simulations of Wildland Fire Smoke PM25 in the NWS Air Quality Forecasting Systems, in: AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2017.
Jaffe, D. A., Wigder, N., Downey, N., Pfister, G., Boynard, A., and Reid, S.
B.: Impact of Wildfires on Ozone Exceptional Events in the Western US,
Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 11065–11072, https://doi.org/10.1021/es402164f,
2013.
Johnston, F. H., Henderson, S. B., Chen, Y., Randerson, J. T., Marlier, M.,
DeFries, R. S., Kinney, P., Bowman, D., and Brauer, M.: Estimated Global
Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires, Environ. Health
Perspect., 120, 695–701, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1104422, 2012.
Justice, C. O., Giglio, L., Korontzi, S., Owens, J., Morisette, J. T., Roy,
D., Descloitres, J., Alleaume, S., Petitcolin, F., and Kaufman, Y.: The
MODIS fire products, Remote Sens. Environ., 83, 244–262,
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0034-4257(02)00076-7, 2002.
Knorr, W., Lehsten, V., and Arneth, A.: Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 6845–6861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-6845-2012, 2012.
Larkin, N. K., O'Neill, S. M., Solomon, R., Raffuse, S., Strand, T.,
Sullivan, D. C., Krull, C., Rorig, M., Peterson, J. T., and Ferguson, S. A.:
The BlueSky smoke modeling framework, Int. J. Wildl.
Fire, 18, 906–920, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf07086, 2009.
Li, Z., Nadon, S., and Cihlar, J.: Satellite-based detection of Canadian
boreal forest fires: development and application of the algorithm,
Int. J. Remote Sens., 21, 3057–3069,
https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160050144956, 2000.
Malm, W. C., Schichtel, B. A., Pitchford, M. L., Ashbaugh, L. L., and
Eldred, R. A.: Spatial and monthly trends in speciated fine particle
concentration in the United States, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 109, D3, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003739, 2004.
Neuman, J. A., Trainer, M., Brown, S. S., Min, K. E., Nowak, J. B., Parrish,
D. D., Peischl, J., Pollack, I. B., Roberts, J. M., Ryerson, T. B., and
Veres, P. R.: HONO emission and production determined from airborne
measurements over the Southeast US, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 121, 9237–9250, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd025197, 2016.
NOAA-EMC: EMC-aqfs, GitHub, available at: https://github.com/NOAA-EMC/EMC_aqfs, last access: 4 May 2020.
Pan, L., Tong, D., Lee, P., Kim, H. C., and Chai, T. F.: Assessment of NOx
and O3 forecasting performances in the US National Air Quality Forecasting
Capability before and after the 2012 major emissions updates, Atmos.
Environ., 95, 610–619, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.06.020, 2014.
Pavlovic, R., Chen, J., Anderson, K., Moran, M. D., Beaulieu, P. A.,
Davignon, D., and Cousineau, S.: The FireWork air quality forecast system
with near-real-time biomass burning emissions: Recent developments and
evaluation of performance for the 2015 North American wildfire season,
J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc., 66, 819–841,
https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2016.1158214, 2016.
Pius, L., McQueen, J., Stajner, I., Huang, J., Pan, L., Tong, D., Kim, H.,
Tang, Y., Kondragunta, S., and Ruminski, M.: NAQFC developmental forecast
guidance for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), Weather Forecast., 32,
343–360, https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-15-0163.1, 2017.
Prados, A. I., Kondragunta, S., Ciren, P., and Knapp, K. P.: GOES
Aerosol/Smoke product (GASP) over North America: Comparisons to AERONET and
MODIS observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D15,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd007968, 2007.
Prins, E. M. and Menzel, W. P.: Geostationary satellite detection of biomass burning in South America, Int. J. Remote Sens.,
13, 2783–2799, 1992.
Rappold, A. G., Stone, S. L., Cascio, W. E., Neas, L. M., Kilaru, V. J.,
Carraway, M. S., Szykman, J. J., Ising, A., Cleve, W. E., Meredith, J. T.,
Vaughan-Batten, H., Deyneka, L., and Devlin, R. B.: Peat Bog Wildfire Smoke
Exposure in Rural North Carolina Is Associated with Cardiopulmonary
Emergency Department Visits Assessed through Syndromic Surveillance,
Environ. Health Perspect., 119, 1415–1420, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1003206,
2011.
Reid, J. S., Koppmann, R., Eck, T. F., and Eleuterio, D. P.: A review of biomass burning emissions part II: intensive physical properties of biomass burning particles, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 799–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-799-2005, 2005.
Rolph, G. D., Draxler, R. R., Stein, A. F., Taylor, A., Ruminski, M. G.,
Kondragunta, S., Zeng, J., Huang, H. C., Manikin, G., McQueen, J. T., and
Davidson, P. M.: Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting
System: The 2007 Fire Season, Weather Forecast., 24, 361–378.
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008waf2222165.1, 2009.
Ruminski, M. and Kondragunta, S.: Monitoring fire and smoke emissions with
the hazard mapping system – art. no. 64120B. in: Disaster Forewarning Diagnostic Methods and
Management, edited by: Kogan, F., Habib, S.,
Hegde, V. S., and Matsuoka, M., 2006.
Ruminski, M., Simko, J., Kibler, J., Kondragunta, S., Draxler, R., Davidson,
P., and Li, P.: Use of multiple satellite sensors in NOAA's operational near
real-time fire and smoke detection and characterization program, in: Remote Sensing of Fire: Science and Application, edited by: Hao, W. M., 2008.
Saide, P. E., Peterson, D. A., da Silva, A., Anderson, B., Ziemba, L. D.,
Diskin, G., Sachse, G., Hair, J., Butler, C., Fenn, M., Jimenez, J. L.,
Campuzano-Jost, P., Perring, A. E., Schwarz, J. P., Markovic, M. Z.,
Russell, P., Redemann, J., Shinozuka, Y., Streets, D. G., Yan, F., Dibb, J.,
Yokelson, R., Toon, O. B., Hyer, E., and Carmichael, G. R.: Revealing
important nocturnal and day-to-day variations in fire smoke emissions
through a multiplatform inversion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42,
3609–3018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl063737, 2015.
Sandberg, D. V. and Peterson, J.: A source strength model for prescribed
fires in coniferous logging slash, 1984 annual meeting, Air Pollution
Control Association, Northwest Section, 14 p., 1984.
Sapkota, A., Symons, J. M., Kleissl, J., Wang, L., Parlange, M. B., Ondov,
J., Breysse, P. N., Diette, G. B., Eggleston, P. A., and Buckley, T. J.:
Impact of the 2002 Canadian forest fires on particulate matter air quality
in Baltimore City, Environ. Sci. Technol., 39, 24–32,
https://doi.org/10.1021/es035311z, 2005.
Schroeder, W., Ruminski, M., Csiszar, I., Giglio, L., Prins, E., Schmidt,
C., and Morisette, J.: Validation analyses of an operational fire monitoring
product: The Hazard Mapping System, Int. J. Remote Sens.,
29, 6059–6066, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160802235845, 2008.
Singh, H. B., Salas, L., Herlth, D., Kolyer, R., Czech, E., Viezee, W., Li,
Q., Jacob, D. J., Blake, D., Sachse, G., Harward, C. N., Fuelberg, H.,
Kiley, C. M., Zhao, Y., and Kondo, Y.: In situ measurements of HCN and CH3CN
over the Pacific Ocean: Sources, sinks, and budgets, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 108, D20, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd003006, 2003.
Singh, H. B., Cai, C., Kaduwela, A., Weinheimer, A., and Wisthaler, A.:
Interactions of fire emissions and urban pollution over California: Ozone
formation and air quality simulations, Atmos. Environ., 56, 45–51,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.03.046, 2012.
Sofiev, M., Ermakova, T., and Vankevich, R.: Evaluation of the smoke-injection height from wild-land fires using remote-sensing data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 1995–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-1995-2012, 2012.
Strand, T. M., Larkin, N., Craig, K. J., Raffuse, S., Sullivan, D., Solomon,
R., Rorig, M., Wheeler, N., and Pryden, D.: Analyses of BlueSky Gateway
PM2.5 predictions during the 2007 southern and 2008 northern California
fires, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D17,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jd017627, 2012.
Urbanski, S., Kovalev, V., Petkov, A., Scalise, A., Wold, C., and Hao, W.
M.: Validation of smoke plume rise models using ground-based lidar, in: Remote Sensing for Agriculture, Ecosystems,
and Hydrology Xvi, edited by: Neale, C. M.
U. and Maltese, A., 2014.
Warneke, C., Trainer, M., de Gouw, J. A., Parrish, D. D., Fahey, D. W., Ravishankara, A. R., Middlebrook, A. M., Brock, C. A., Roberts, J. M., Brown, S. S., Neuman, J. A., Lerner, B. M., Lack, D., Law, D., Hübler, G., Pollack, I., Sjostedt, S., Ryerson, T. B., Gilman, J. B., Liao, J., Holloway, J., Peischl, J., Nowak, J. B., Aikin, K. C., Min, K.-E., Washenfelder, R. A., Graus, M. G., Richardson, M., Markovic, M. Z., Wagner, N. L., Welti, A., Veres, P. R., Edwards, P., Schwarz, J. P., Gordon, T., Dube, W. P., McKeen, S. A., Brioude, J., Ahmadov, R., Bougiatioti, A., Lin, J. J., Nenes, A., Wolfe, G. M., Hanisco, T. F., Lee, B. H., Lopez-Hilfiker, F. D., Thornton, J. A., Keutsch, F. N., Kaiser, J., Mao, J., and Hatch, C. D.: Instrumentation and measurement strategy for the NOAA SENEX aircraft campaign as part of the Southeast Atmosphere Study 2013, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3063–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3063-2016, 2016.
Wiedinmyer, C., Quayle, B., Geron, C., Belote, A., McKenzie, D., Zhang, X.
Y., O'Neill, S., and Wynne, K. K.: Estimating emissions from fires in North
America for air quality modeling, Atmos. Environ., 40, 3419–3432,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.02.010, 2006.
Wiedinmyer, C., Akagi, S. K., Yokelson, R. J., Emmons, L. K., Al-Saadi, J. A., Orlando, J. J., and Soja, A. J.: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN): a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 625–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-625-2011, 2011.
Wotawa, G. and Trainer, M.: The influence of Canadian forest fires on
pollutant concentrations in the United States, Science, 288, 324–328,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5464.324, 2000.
Xu, L., Middlebrook, A. M., Liao, J., de Gouw, J. A., Guo, H. Y., Weber, R.
J., Nenes, A., Lopez-Hilfiker, F. D., Lee, B. H., Thornton, J. A., Brock, C.
A., Neuman, J. A., Nowak, J. B., Pollack, I. B., Welti, A., Graus, M.,
Warneke, C., and Ng, N. L.: Enhanced formation of isoprene-derived organic
aerosol in sulfur-rich power plant plumes during Southeast Nexus, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 11137–11153, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd025156,
2016.
Yarwood, G., Rao, S., Yocke, M., and Whitten, G.: Updates to the Carbon Bond
Chemical Mechanism: CB05, Technical Report RT-0400675 ENVIRON International
Corporation Novato, CA, USA, 2005.
Zhang, X. Y., Kondragunta, S., and Quayle, B.: Estimation of Biomass Burned
Areas Using Multiple-Satellite-Observed Active Fires, IEEE Trans.
Geosci. Remote Sens., 49, 4469–4482, https://doi.org/10.1109/tgrs.2011.2149535,
2011.
Short summary
Compared to anthropogenic emissions, emissions from wildfires are largely uncontrolled and unpredictable. Quantitatively describing wildfire emissions and their contributions to air pollution remains a substantial challenge for air quality forecasting efforts. In this study, we test the wildfire calculation algorithm used by the National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) by comparison with ground, satellite and flight measurements during the Southeast Nexus (SENEX) field experiment.
Compared to anthropogenic emissions, emissions from wildfires are largely uncontrolled and...
