Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model

Yiou, Pascal; Déandréis, Céline

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019

Articles | Volume 12, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 2

Model description paper

|

19 Feb 2019

Model description paper |

| 19 Feb 2019

Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model

Pascal Yiou and Céline Déandréis

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Final revised paper (published on 19 Feb 2019)
Preprint (discussion started on 21 Sep 2018)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Comments on "Stochastic Ensemble Climate Forecast with an Analogue Model"', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Oct 2018
- AC1: 'Reply to referee #1', Pascal Yiou, 14 Dec 2018
RC2: 'Review of “Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue method” by Pascal Yiou and Céline Déandréis', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Oct 2018
- AC2: 'Reply to referee #2', Pascal Yiou, 14 Dec 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Pascal Yiou on behalf of the Authors (11 Jan 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (05 Feb 2019) by James Annan

AR by Pascal Yiou on behalf of the Authors (07 Feb 2019) Manuscript

Short summary

We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. This system is based on a stochastic weather generator that samples analogs of SLP. This paper provides statistical tests of temperature and NAO forecasts for timescales of days to months. We argue that the forecast skill of the system is significantly positive and could be used as a baseline for numerical weather forecast.