Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
19 Feb 2019
Model description paper |
| 19 Feb 2019
| 19 Feb 2019
Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ,
IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Université Paris-Saclay, CE l'Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Céline Déandréis
ARIA Technologies, 8-10 Rue de la Ferme, 92100 Boulogne-Billancourt, France
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues M. Menary et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb
- Data-driven methods to estimate the committor function in conceptual ocean models V. Jacques-Dumas et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-195-2023
- Probability Distributions for Analog-To-Target Distances P. Platzer et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0382.1
- High-resolution snow water equivalent estimation: a data-driven method for localized downscaling of climate data F. Zakeri et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6935-2025
- Physical-empirical models for prediction of seasonal rainfall extremes of Peninsular Malaysia S. Pour et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104720
- What do large‐scale patterns teach us about extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean at medium‐ and extended‐range forecasts? N. Mastrantonas et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4236
- Coupling rare event algorithms with data-based learned committor functions using the analogue Markov chain D. Lucente et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/ac7aa7
- Nonstationary extreme value analysis for event attribution combining climate models and observations Y. Robin & A. Ribes https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-205-2020
- Hourly precipitation fields at 1 km resolution over Belgium from 1940 to 2016 based on the analog technique E. Debrie et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6405-2025
- Probabilistic forecasts of extreme heatwaves using convolutional neural networks in a regime of lack of data G. Miloshevich et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevFluids.8.040501
- Simulation of extreme heat waves with empirical importance sampling P. Yiou & A. Jézéquel https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-763-2020
- Assessment of stochastic weather forecast of precipitation near European cities, based on analogs of circulation M. Krouma et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4941-2022
- Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France C. Cadiou & P. Yiou https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025
- Ensemble forecasts of isolated and compound wind and precipitation extremes in Europe using HC-SWG (v3.1) and MA-SWG (v1.1) Stochastic Weather Generators M. Krouma & G. Messori https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6663-2026
- Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs M. Krouma et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023
- Prediction of extreme uncertainty-production events in three-dimensional Navier–Stokes turbulence J. Ge et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2026.11998
- Improving subseasonal forecast of precipitation in Europe by combining a stochastic weather generator with dynamical models M. Krouma et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4733
- Pattern-based forecasting enhances the prediction skill of European heatwaves into the sub-seasonal range E. Rouges et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07390-0
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues M. Menary et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb
- Data-driven methods to estimate the committor function in conceptual ocean models V. Jacques-Dumas et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-195-2023
- Probability Distributions for Analog-To-Target Distances P. Platzer et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0382.1
- High-resolution snow water equivalent estimation: a data-driven method for localized downscaling of climate data F. Zakeri et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6935-2025
- Physical-empirical models for prediction of seasonal rainfall extremes of Peninsular Malaysia S. Pour et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104720
- What do large‐scale patterns teach us about extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean at medium‐ and extended‐range forecasts? N. Mastrantonas et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4236
- Coupling rare event algorithms with data-based learned committor functions using the analogue Markov chain D. Lucente et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/ac7aa7
- Nonstationary extreme value analysis for event attribution combining climate models and observations Y. Robin & A. Ribes https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-205-2020
- Hourly precipitation fields at 1 km resolution over Belgium from 1940 to 2016 based on the analog technique E. Debrie et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6405-2025
- Probabilistic forecasts of extreme heatwaves using convolutional neural networks in a regime of lack of data G. Miloshevich et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevFluids.8.040501
- Simulation of extreme heat waves with empirical importance sampling P. Yiou & A. Jézéquel https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-763-2020
- Assessment of stochastic weather forecast of precipitation near European cities, based on analogs of circulation M. Krouma et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4941-2022
- Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France C. Cadiou & P. Yiou https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025
- Ensemble forecasts of isolated and compound wind and precipitation extremes in Europe using HC-SWG (v3.1) and MA-SWG (v1.1) Stochastic Weather Generators M. Krouma & G. Messori https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6663-2026
- Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs M. Krouma et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023
- Prediction of extreme uncertainty-production events in three-dimensional Navier–Stokes turbulence J. Ge et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2026.11998
- Improving subseasonal forecast of precipitation in Europe by combining a stochastic weather generator with dynamical models M. Krouma et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4733
- Pattern-based forecasting enhances the prediction skill of European heatwaves into the sub-seasonal range E. Rouges et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07390-0
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 16 Sep 2026
Short summary
We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. This system is based on a stochastic weather generator that samples analogs of SLP. This paper provides statistical tests of temperature and NAO forecasts for timescales of days to months. We argue that the forecast skill of the system is significantly positive and could be used as a baseline for numerical weather forecast.
We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and...
