Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019
Model description paper
 | 
19 Feb 2019
Model description paper |  | 19 Feb 2019

Stochastic ensemble climate forecast with an analogue model

Pascal Yiou and Céline Déandréis

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Cited articles

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We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. This system is based on a stochastic weather generator that samples analogs of SLP. This paper provides statistical tests of temperature and NAO forecasts for timescales of days to months. We argue that the forecast skill of the system is significantly positive and could be used as a baseline for numerical weather forecast.