Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Model description paper
12 Apr 2019
Model description paper |  | 12 Apr 2019

Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models

Robert Link, Abigail Snyder, Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Kravitz, and Ben Bond-Lamberty

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Cited articles

Akhtar, M. K., Wibe, J., Simonovic, S. P., and MacGee, J.: Integrated assessment model of society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system, Environ. Modell. Softw., 49, 1 – 21,, 2013. a
Alexeeff, S. E., Nychka, D., Sain, S. R., and Tebaldi, C.: Emulating mean patterns and variability of temperature across and within scenarios in anthropogenic climate change experiments, Climatic Change, 146, 319–333,, 2016. a
Bodman, R. W. and Jones, R. N.: Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity using observationally constrained simple climate models, Wires. Clim. Change, 7, 461–473,, 2016. a
Calvin, K. and Bond-Lamberty, B.: Integrated human-earth system modeling-state of the science and future directions, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 063006,, 2018. a
Castruccio, S. and Stein, M.: Global space-time models for climate ensembles, Ann. Appl. Stat., 7, 1593–1611, 2013. a
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) produce the highest-quality future climate data available, but they are costly to run, so only a few runs from each model are publicly available. What is needed are emulators that tell us what would have happened, if we had been able to perform as many ESM runs as we might have liked. Much of the existing work on emulators has focused on deterministic projections of average values. Here we present a way to imbue emulators with the variability seen in ESM runs.