Articles | Volume 8, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3545-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3545-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Development and technical paper
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05 Nov 2015
Development and technical paper | Highlight paper |
| 05 Nov 2015
Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model
M. Fader
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale, Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Technopôle Arbois-Méditerranée, Bâtiment Villemin, BP 80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence CEDEX 04, France
W. von Bloh
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
S. Shi
Research Software Development Group, Research IT Services, University College London, Podium Building (1st Floor), Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
A. Bondeau
Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale, Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Technopôle Arbois-Méditerranée, Bâtiment Villemin, BP 80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence CEDEX 04, France
W. Cramer
Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale, Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Technopôle Arbois-Méditerranée, Bâtiment Villemin, BP 80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence CEDEX 04, France
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Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 7615–7651, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7615-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7615-2026, 2026
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Methane is a powerful driver of climate change, yet emissions from wetlands and farming remain uncertain. We improved a global vegetation model that links water, plants and soils to methane production and release. The model now captures waterlogged areas, methane creation and escape, and flood-tolerant plants. It reproduces global wetland patterns and emissions more realistically, helping assess how climate and land-use change may affect future methane release and improve climate projections.
Jannes Breier, Luana Schwarz, Hannah Prawitz, Werner von Bloh, Christoph Müller, Stephen Björn Wirth, Max Bechthold, Dieter Gerten, and Jonathan F. Donges
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6829–6855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6829-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6829-2026, 2026
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We present a new modelling framework that combines simulations of environmental change and human decision-making in an integrated approach. It allows researchers to explore how farming decisions affect land, water, and climate, and how these environmental changes influence future decisions. By connecting people and nature, it helps investigate food security, climate adaptation, and sustainability challenges, and supports the development of more realistic scenarios of future environmental change.
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Maik Biling, Kirsten Thonicke, Werner von Bloh, Jakob Wessel, Sabine Undorf, Matthias Forkel, and Jakob Zscheischler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2952, 2026
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Wildfires are becoming more extreme, yet our state-of-the-art tools fail to capture the full risk. We simulate a large ensemble of wildfire simulations capturing a broader range of physically plausible extreme wildfire events beyond what observations alone can reveal. Extreme fire danger alone does not explain the worst impacts: ignitions, fuel and vegetation-fire feedback need to be incorporated. This modelling framework is transferable to other climate-impact sectors beyond wildfires.
Marie Hemmen, Heidi Webber, Werner von Bloh, Jens Heinke, and Christoph Müller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1898, 2026
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In this study we present a lightweight approach to compute crop canopy temperatures in computationally expensive models, which we apply in the global Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land model. The evaluation reveals that the developed approach reproduces cooling and heating effects of the canopy for daily maximum temperatures and suggests that replacement of standard 2 m air temperature input by simulated canopy temperatures improves the skill to model high temperature impacts on crop growth.
Jéssica Schüler, Sarah Bereswill, Werner von Bloh, Maik Billing, Boris Sakschewski, Luke Oberhagemann, Kirsten Thonicke, and Mercedes M. C. Bustamante
Biogeosciences, 23, 95–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-95-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-95-2026, 2026
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We introduced a new plant type into a global vegetation model to better represent the ecology of the Cerrado, South America's second largest biome. This improved the model’s ability to simulate vegetation structure, root systems, and fire dynamics, aligning more closely with observations. Our results enhance understanding of tropical savannas and provide a stronger basis for studying their responses to fire and climate change at regional and global scales.
Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, 2025
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We present a novel global model that links farmer decisions with ecological processes to explore how agricultural systems co-evolve. Unlike previous tools, it captures feedbacks between society and nature at up-to planetary scale. We find that conservation practices can restore soil health and support stable harvests. Adoption spreads through learning and norms, showing how regeneration at the farm scale can ripple outward, contributing to global sustainability and Earth system resilience.
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3309–3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3309-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3309-2025, 2025
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In our simulations increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in temperate pine monoculture and mixed forests. Mixed forests eventually recovered as long as drought frequency was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broadleaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth. This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
Luke Oberhagemann, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Matthew Forrest, Simon P. K. Bowring, Jessica Hetzer, Jaime Ribalaygua Batalla, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2021–2050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, 2025
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Under climate change, the conditions necessary for wildfires to form are occurring more frequently in many parts of the world. To help predict how wildfires will change in future, global fire models are being developed. We analyze and further develop one such model, SPITFIRE. Our work identifies and corrects sources of substantial bias in the model that are important to the global fire modelling field. With this analysis and these developments, we help to provide a basis for future improvements.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, Friedhelm Taube, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7889–7914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, 2024
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We present a new approach to modelling biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, vertical root distribution, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved simulated BNF compared to the scientific literature and the model ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Markus Drüke, Wolfgang Lucht, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Arne Tobian, Sina Loriani, Sibyll Schaphoff, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 467–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, 2024
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The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization of the Earth system. We use the comprehensive Earth system model POEM to study the impact of the interacting boundaries for climate change and land system change. Our study shows the importance of long-term effects on carbon dynamics and climate, as well as the need to investigate both boundaries simultaneously and to generally keep both boundaries within acceptable ranges to avoid a catastrophic scenario for humanity.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
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In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Joel Guiot, Nicolas Bernigaud, Alberte Bondeau, Laurent Bouby, and Wolfgang Cramer
Clim. Past, 19, 1219–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1219-2023, 2023
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In the Mediterranean the vine has been an important part of the economy since Roman times. Viticulture expanded within Gaul during warmer climate phases and regressed during cold periods. Now it is spreading strongly to northern Europe and suffering from drought in North Africa, Spain, and southern Italy. This will worsen if global warming exceeds 2 °C above the preindustrial period. While the driver of this is increased greenhouse gases, we show that the main past forcing was volcanic activity.
Jenny Niebsch, Werner von Bloh, Kirsten Thonicke, and Ronny Ramlau
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-17-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-17-2023, 2023
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The impacts of climate change require strategies for climate adaptation. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to study the effects of multiple processes in the biosphere under climate change. There is a demand for a better computational performance of the models. In this paper, the photosynthesis model in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land DGVM (4.0.002) was examined. We found a better numerical solution of a nonlinear equation. A significant run time reduction was possible.
Vera Porwollik, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 957–977, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-957-2022, 2022
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The study assesses impacts of grass cover crop cultivation on cropland during main-crop off-season periods applying the global vegetation model LPJmL (V.5.0-tillage-cc). Compared to simulated bare-soil fallowing practices, cover crops led to increased soil carbon content and reduced nitrogen leaching rates on the majority of global cropland. Yield responses of main crops following cover crops vary with location, duration of altered management, crop type, water regime, and tillage practice.
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Short summary
This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses.
The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With this development presented, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture.
This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants in an agro-ecosystem...
Special issue