Articles | Volume 7, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2817-2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2817-2014
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
02 Dec 2014
Methods for assessment of models |  | 02 Dec 2014

Uncertainty in Lagrangian pollutant transport simulations due to meteorological uncertainty from a mesoscale WRF ensemble

W. M. Angevine, J. Brioude, S. McKeen, and J. S. Holloway

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Cited articles

Angevine, W. M., Jiang, H., and Mauritsen, T.: Performance of an eddy diffusivity – mass flux scheme for shallow cumulus boundary layers, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 2895–2912, 2010.
Angevine, W. M., Eddington, L., Durkee, K., Fairall, C., Bianco, L., and Brioude, J.: Meteorological model evaulation for CalNex 2010, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 3885–3906, 2012.
Angevine, W. M., Bazile, E., Legain, D., and Pino, D.: Land surface spinup for episodic modeling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8165–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8165-2014, 2014.
Brioude, J., Kim, S. W., Angevine, W. M., Frost, G. J., Lee, S. H., McKeen, S. A., Trainer, M., Fehsenfeld, F. C., Holloway, J. S., Ryerson, T. B., Williams, E. J., Petron, G., and Fast, J. D.: Top-down estimate of anthropogenic emission inventories and their interannual variability in Houston using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D20305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd016215, 2011.
Brioude, J., Angevine, W. M., McKeen, S. A., and Hsie, E.-Y.: Numerical uncertainty at mesoscale in a Lagrangian model in complex terrain, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1127–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1127-2012, 2012.
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Short summary
Uncertainty in Lagrangian particle dispersion model simulations was evaluated using an ensemble of WRF meteorological model runs. Uncertainty of tracer concentrations due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 30-40%. Spatial and temporal averaging reduces the uncertainty marginally. Tracer age uncertainty due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 15-20%. These are lower bounds on the uncertainty, because a number of processes are not accounted for in the analysis.