Articles | Volume 7, issue 6
Methods for assessment of models
02 Dec 2014
Methods for assessment of models |  | 02 Dec 2014

Uncertainty in Lagrangian pollutant transport simulations due to meteorological uncertainty from a mesoscale WRF ensemble

W. M. Angevine, J. Brioude, S. McKeen, and J. S. Holloway

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Cited articles

Angevine, W. M., Jiang, H., and Mauritsen, T.: Performance of an eddy diffusivity – mass flux scheme for shallow cumulus boundary layers, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 2895–2912, 2010.
Angevine, W. M., Eddington, L., Durkee, K., Fairall, C., Bianco, L., and Brioude, J.: Meteorological model evaulation for CalNex 2010, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 3885–3906, 2012.
Angevine, W. M., Bazile, E., Legain, D., and Pino, D.: Land surface spinup for episodic modeling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8165–8172,, 2014.
Brioude, J., Kim, S. W., Angevine, W. M., Frost, G. J., Lee, S. H., McKeen, S. A., Trainer, M., Fehsenfeld, F. C., Holloway, J. S., Ryerson, T. B., Williams, E. J., Petron, G., and Fast, J. D.: Top-down estimate of anthropogenic emission inventories and their interannual variability in Houston using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D20305,, 2011.
Brioude, J., Angevine, W. M., McKeen, S. A., and Hsie, E.-Y.: Numerical uncertainty at mesoscale in a Lagrangian model in complex terrain, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1127–1136,, 2012.
Short summary
Uncertainty in Lagrangian particle dispersion model simulations was evaluated using an ensemble of WRF meteorological model runs. Uncertainty of tracer concentrations due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 30-40%. Spatial and temporal averaging reduces the uncertainty marginally. Tracer age uncertainty due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 15-20%. These are lower bounds on the uncertainty, because a number of processes are not accounted for in the analysis.