Articles | Volume 7, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2817-2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2817-2014
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
02 Dec 2014
Methods for assessment of models |  | 02 Dec 2014

Uncertainty in Lagrangian pollutant transport simulations due to meteorological uncertainty from a mesoscale WRF ensemble

W. M. Angevine, J. Brioude, S. McKeen, and J. S. Holloway

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Short summary
Uncertainty in Lagrangian particle dispersion model simulations was evaluated using an ensemble of WRF meteorological model runs. Uncertainty of tracer concentrations due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 30-40%. Spatial and temporal averaging reduces the uncertainty marginally. Tracer age uncertainty due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 15-20%. These are lower bounds on the uncertainty, because a number of processes are not accounted for in the analysis.