Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1709-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1709-2025
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
12 Mar 2025
Methods for assessment of models |  | 12 Mar 2025

Selecting a conceptual hydrological model using Bayes' factors computed with replica-exchange Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and thermodynamic integration

Damian N. Mingo, Remko Nijzink, Christophe Ley, and Jack S. Hale

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2865', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 Apr 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Damian Mingo Ndiwago, 08 Apr 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2865', Georgios Boumis, 14 May 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Damian Mingo Ndiwago, 22 May 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Damian Mingo Ndiwago on behalf of the Authors (15 Aug 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (27 Aug 2024) by Wolfgang Kurtz
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (28 Aug 2024)
RR by Ivana Jovanovic Buha (07 Oct 2024)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (01 Nov 2024) by Wolfgang Kurtz
AR by Damian Mingo Ndiwago on behalf of the Authors (18 Nov 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (04 Dec 2024) by Wolfgang Kurtz
AR by Damian Mingo Ndiwago on behalf of the Authors (20 Dec 2024)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
Hydrologists are often faced with selecting amongst a set of competing models with different numbers of parameters and ability to fit available data. Bayes’ factor is a tool that can be used to compare models; however, it is very difficult to compute Bayes' factor numerically. In our paper, we explore and develop highly efficient algorithms for computing Bayes’ factor of hydrological systems, which will introduce this useful tool for selecting models into everyday hydrological practice.
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