Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1709-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1709-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
12 Mar 2025
Methods for assessment of models |  | 12 Mar 2025

Selecting a conceptual hydrological model using Bayes' factors computed with replica-exchange Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and thermodynamic integration

Damian N. Mingo, Remko Nijzink, Christophe Ley, and Jack S. Hale

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Short summary
Hydrologists are often faced with selecting amongst a set of competing models with different numbers of parameters and ability to fit available data. Bayes’ factor is a tool that can be used to compare models; however, it is very difficult to compute Bayes' factor numerically. In our paper, we explore and develop highly efficient algorithms for computing Bayes’ factor of hydrological systems, which will introduce this useful tool for selecting models into everyday hydrological practice.
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