Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1709-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1709-2025
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
12 Mar 2025
Methods for assessment of models |  | 12 Mar 2025

Selecting a conceptual hydrological model using Bayes' factors computed with replica-exchange Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and thermodynamic integration

Damian N. Mingo, Remko Nijzink, Christophe Ley, and Jack S. Hale

Data sets

Magela Creek data (precipitation, discharge, potential evapotranspiration, temperature) D. N. Mingo and Jack S. Hale https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10202093

Model code and software

Selecting a conceptual hydrological model using Bayes' factors Damian N. Mingo and Jack S. Hale https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10202093

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Short summary
Hydrologists are often faced with selecting amongst a set of competing models with different numbers of parameters and ability to fit available data. Bayes’ factor is a tool that can be used to compare models; however, it is very difficult to compute Bayes' factor numerically. In our paper, we explore and develop highly efficient algorithms for computing Bayes’ factor of hydrological systems, which will introduce this useful tool for selecting models into everyday hydrological practice.
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