Articles | Volume 16, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3997-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3997-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
14 Jul 2023
Model description paper |
| 14 Jul 2023
| 14 Jul 2023
Segmentation of XCO2 images with deep learning: application to synthetic plumes from cities and power plants
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CEREA, École des Ponts and EDF R&D, Île-de-France, France
Pierre Vanderbecken
CEREA, École des Ponts and EDF R&D, Île-de-France, France
Alban Farchi
CEREA, École des Ponts and EDF R&D, Île-de-France, France
Marc Bocquet
CEREA, École des Ponts and EDF R&D, Île-de-France, France
Jinghui Lian
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Origins.S.A.S, Suez Group, Île-de-France, France
Grégoire Broquet
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Gerrit Kuhlmann
Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa), Dübendorf, Switzerland
Alexandre Danjou
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Thomas Lauvaux
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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This paper focuses on predicting Arctic-wide sea-ice thickness using surrogate modeling with deep learning. The model has a predictive power of 12 h up to 6 months. For this forecast horizon, persistence and daily climatology are systematically outperformed, a result of learned thermodynamics and advection. Consequently, surrogate modeling with deep learning proves to be effective at capturing the complex behavior of sea ice.
Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Gregoire Broquet, Elise Potier, Robin Plauchu, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Hugo Denier van der Gon, and Stijn Dellaert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4635–4649, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4635-2024, 2024
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Yunsong Liu, Jean-Daniel Paris, Gregoire Broquet, Violeta Bescós Roy, Tania Meixus Fernandez, Rasmus Andersen, Andrés Russu Berlanga, Emil Christensen, Yann Courtois, Sebastian Dominok, Corentin Dussenne, Travis Eckert, Andrew Finlayson, Aurora Fernández de la Fuente, Catlin Gunn, Ram Hashmonay, Juliano Grigoleto Hayashi, Jonathan Helmore, Soeren Honsel, Fabrizio Innocenti, Matti Irjala, Torgrim Log, Cristina Lopez, Francisco Cortés Martínez, Jonathan Martinez, Adrien Massardier, Helle Gottschalk Nygaard, Paula Agregan Reboredo, Elodie Rousset, Axel Scherello, Matthias Ulbricht, Damien Weidmann, Oliver Williams, Nigel Yarrow, Murès Zarea, Robert Ziegler, Jean Sciare, Mihalis Vrekoussis, and Philippe Bousquet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1633–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1633-2024, 2024
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We investigated the performance of 10 methane emission quantification techniques in a blind controlled-release experiment at an inerted natural gas compressor station. We reported their respective strengths, weaknesses, and potential complementarity depending on the emission rates and atmospheric conditions. Additionally, we assess the dependence of emission quantification performance on key parameters such as wind speed, deployment constraints, and measurement duration.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1995–2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1995-2024, 2024
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Our research presents an innovative approach to estimating power plant CO2 emissions from satellite images of the corresponding plumes such as those from the forthcoming CO2M satellite constellation. The exploitation of these images is challenging due to noise and meteorological uncertainties. To overcome these obstacles, we use a deep learning neural network trained on simulated CO2 images. Our method outperforms alternatives, providing a positive perspective for the analysis of CO2M images.
Pramod Kumar, Christopher Caldow, Grégoire Broquet, Adil Shah, Olivier Laurent, Camille Yver-Kwok, Sebastien Ars, Sara Defratyka, Susan Warao Gichuki, Luc Lienhardt, Mathis Lozano, Jean-Daniel Paris, Felix Vogel, Caroline Bouchet, Elisa Allegrini, Robert Kelly, Catherine Juery, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1229–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1229-2024, 2024
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This study presents a series of mobile measurement campaigns to monitor the CH4 emissions from an active landfill. These measurements are processed using a Gaussian plume model and atmospheric inversion techniques to quantify the landfill CH4 emissions. The methane emission estimates range between ~0.4 and ~7 t CH4 per day, and their variations are analyzed. The robustness of the estimates is assessed depending on the distance of the measurements from the potential sources in the landfill.
Apisada Chulakadabba, Maryann Sargent, Thomas Lauvaux, Joshua S. Benmergui, Jonathan E. Franklin, Christopher Chan Miller, Jonas S. Wilzewski, Sébastien Roche, Eamon Conway, Amir H. Souri, Kang Sun, Bingkun Luo, Jacob Hawthrone, Jenna Samra, Bruce C. Daube, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Yang Li, Ritesh Gautam, Mark Omara, Jeff S. Rutherford, Evan D. Sherwin, Adam Brandt, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 5771–5785, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5771-2023, 2023
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We show that MethaneAIR, a precursor to the MethaneSAT satellite, demonstrates accurate point source quantification during controlled release experiments and regional observations in 2021 and 2022. Results from our two independent quantification methods suggest the accuracy of our sensor and algorithms is better than 25 % for sources emitting 200 kg h−1 or more. Insights from these measurements help establish the capabilities of MethaneSAT and MethaneAIR.
Ioannis Cheliotis, Thomas Lauvaux, Jinghui Lian, Theodoros Christoudias, George Georgiou, Alba Badia, Frédéric Chevallier, Pramod Kumar, Yathin Kudupaje, Ruixue Lei, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2487, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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A consistent estimation of CO2 emissions is complicated due to the scarcity of CO2 observations. In this study, we showcase the potential to improve the CO2 emissions estimations from the NO2 concentrations based on the NO2-to-CO2 ratio, which should be constant for a source co-emitting NO2 and CO2, by comparing satellite observations with atmospheric chemistry and transport model simulations for NO2 and CO2. Furthermore, we demonstrate the significance of the chemistry in NO2 simulations.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
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Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Jinghui Lian, Thomas Lauvaux, Hervé Utard, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Laurent, Ivonne Albarus, Mali Chariot, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, Olivier Sanchez, Olivier Perrussel, Hugo Anne Denier van der Gon, Stijn Nicolaas Camiel Dellaert, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8823–8835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, 2023
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This study quantifies urban CO2 emissions via an atmospheric inversion for the Paris metropolitan area over a 6-year period from 2016 to 2021. Results show a long-term decreasing trend of about 2 % ± 0.6 % per year in the annual CO2 emissions over Paris. We conclude that our current capacity can deliver near-real-time CO2 emission estimates at the city scale in under a month, and the results agree within 10 % with independent estimates from multiple city-scale inventories.
Tobias Sebastian Finn, Charlotte Durand, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Yumeng Chen, Alberto Carrassi, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 17, 2965–2991, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2965-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2965-2023, 2023
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We combine deep learning with a regional sea-ice model to correct model errors in the sea-ice dynamics of low-resolution forecasts towards high-resolution simulations. The combined model improves the forecast by up to 75 % and thereby surpasses the performance of persistence. As the error connection can additionally be used to analyse the shortcomings of the forecasts, this study highlights the potential of combined modelling for short-term sea-ice forecasting.
Adil Shah, Olivier Laurent, Luc Lienhardt, Grégoire Broquet, Rodrigo Rivera Martinez, Elisa Allegrini, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3391–3419, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3391-2023, 2023
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As methane (CH4) contributes to global warming, more CH4 measurements are required to better characterise source emissions. Hence, we tested a cheap CH4 sensor for 338 d of landfill sampling. We derived an excellent CH4 response model in a stable environment. However, different types of air with the same CH4 level had diverse sensor responses. We characterised temperature and water vapour response but could not replicate field sampling. Thus, other species may cause sensor interactions.
Rodrigo Andres Rivera Martinez, Diego Santaren, Olivier Laurent, Gregoire Broquet, Ford Cropley, Cécile Mallet, Michel Ramonet, Adil Shah, Leonard Rivier, Caroline Bouchet, Catherine Juery, Olivier Duclaux, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2209–2235, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2209-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2209-2023, 2023
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A network of low-cost sensors is a good alternative to improve the detection of fugitive CH4 emissions. We present the results of four tests conducted with two types of Figaro sensors that were assembled on four chambers in a laboratory experiment: a comparison of five models to reconstruct the CH4 signal, a strategy to reduce the training set size, a detection of age effects in the sensors and a test of the capability to transfer a model between chambers for the same type of sensor.
Pierre J. Vanderbecken, Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Yelva Roustan, Élise Potier, and Grégoire Broquet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1745–1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1745-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1745-2023, 2023
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Instruments dedicated to monitoring atmospheric gaseous compounds from space will provide images of urban-scale plumes. We discuss here the use of new metrics to compare observed plumes with model predictions that will be less sensitive to meteorology uncertainties. We have evaluated our metrics on diverse plumes and shown that by eliminating some aspects of the discrepancies, they are indeed less sensitive to meteorological variations.
Dominik Brunner, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Stephan Henne, Erik Koene, Bastian Kern, Sebastian Wolff, Christiane Voigt, Patrick Jöckel, Christoph Kiemle, Anke Roiger, Alina Fiehn, Sven Krautwurst, Konstantin Gerilowski, Heinrich Bovensmann, Jakob Borchardt, Michal Galkowski, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Marshall, Andrzej Klonecki, Pascal Prunet, Robert Hanfland, Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Andrzej Wyszogrodzki, and Andreas Fix
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2699–2728, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2699-2023, 2023
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We evaluated six atmospheric transport models for their capability to simulate the CO2 plumes from two of the largest power plants in Europe by comparing the models against aircraft observations collected during the CoMet (Carbon Dioxide and Methane Mission) campaign in 2018. The study analyzed how realistically such plumes can be simulated at different model resolutions and how well the planned European satellite mission CO2M will be able to quantify emissions from power plants.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Marc Bocquet, Olivier Saunier, and Yelva Roustan
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1039–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1039-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1039-2023, 2023
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When radionuclides are released into the atmosphere, the assessment of the consequences depends on the evaluation of the magnitude and temporal evolution of the release, which can be highly variable as in the case of Fukushima Daiichi.
Here, we propose Bayesian inverse modelling methods and the reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, which allows one to evaluate the temporal variability of the release and to integrate different types of information in the source reconstruction.
Colin Grudzien and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7641–7681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7641-2022, 2022
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Iterative optimization techniques, the state of the art in data assimilation, have largely focused on extending forecast accuracy to moderate- to long-range forecast systems. However, current methodology may not be cost-effective in reducing forecast errors in online, short-range forecast systems. We propose a novel optimization of these techniques for online, short-range forecast cycles, simultaneously providing an improvement in forecast accuracy and a reduction in the computational cost.
Elise Potier, Grégoire Broquet, Yilong Wang, Diego Santaren, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Julia Marshall, Philippe Ciais, François-Marie Bréon, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5261–5288, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5261-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric inversion at local–regional scales over Europe and pseudo-data assimilation are used to evaluate how CO2 and 14CO2 ground-based measurement networks could complement satellite CO2 imagers to monitor fossil fuel (FF) CO2 emissions. This combination significantly improves precision in the FF emission estimates in areas with a dense network but does not strongly support the separation of the FF from the biogenic signals or the spatio-temporal extrapolation of the satellite information.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, Didier Hauglustaine, and Jean Sciare
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11505–11527, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11505-2022, 2022
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Emission inventories for air pollutants can be uncertain in developing countries. In order to overcome these uncertainties, we model nitrogen oxide emissions in Egypt using satellite retrievals. We detect a weekly cycle reflecting Egyptian social norms, an annual cycle consistent with electricity consumption and an activity drop due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, discrepancies with inventories remain high, illustrating the needs for additional data to improve the potential of our method.
E. Ouerghi, T. Ehret, C. de Franchis, G. Facciolo, T. Lauvaux, E. Meinhardt, and J.-M. Morel
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2022, 147–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2022-147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2022-147-2022, 2022
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Zitely A. Tzompa-Sosa, Marielle Saunois, Chunjing Qiu, Chang Tan, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Yanan Cui, Katsumasa Tanaka, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Atul K. Jain, Xiaoming Xu, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Paul I. Palmer, Thomas Lauvaux, Alexandre d'Aspremont, Clément Giron, Antoine Benoit, Benjamin Poulter, Jinfeng Chang, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Giacomo Grassi, Clément Albergel, Francesco N. Tubiello, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, 2022
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In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we proposed a method for reconciling the results of global atmospheric inversions with data from UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, based on a new global harmonized database that we compiled from the UNFCCC NGHGIs and a comprehensive framework presented in this study to process the results of inversions, we compared their results of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Ka Lok Chan, Sebastian Donner, Ying Zhu, Marc Schwaerzel, Steffen Dörner, Jia Chen, Andreas Hueni, Duc Hai Nguyen, Alexander Damm, Annette Schütt, Florian Dietrich, Dominik Brunner, Cheng Liu, Brigitte Buchmann, Thomas Wagner, and Mark Wenig
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1609–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1609-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1609-2022, 2022
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Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is an air pollutant whose concentration often exceeds air quality guideline values, especially in urban areas. To map the spatial distribution of NO2 in Munich, we conducted the Munich NO2 Imaging Campaign (MuNIC), where NO2 was measured with stationary, mobile, and airborne in situ and remote sensing instruments. The campaign provides a unique dataset that has been used to compare the different instruments and to study the spatial variability of NO2 and its sources.
Marc Schwaerzel, Dominik Brunner, Fabian Jakub, Claudia Emde, Brigitte Buchmann, Alexis Berne, and Gerrit Kuhlmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6469–6482, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6469-2021, 2021
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NO2 maps from airborne imaging remote sensing often appear much smoother than one would expect from high-resolution model simulations of NO2 over cities, despite the small ground-pixel size of the sensors. Our case study over Zurich, using the newly implemented building module of the MYSTIC radiative transfer solver, shows that the 3D effect can explain part of the smearing and that building shadows cause a noticeable underestimation and noise in the measured NO2 columns.
Pramod Kumar, Grégoire Broquet, Camille Yver-Kwok, Olivier Laurent, Susan Gichuki, Christopher Caldow, Ford Cropley, Thomas Lauvaux, Michel Ramonet, Guillaume Berthe, Frédéric Martin, Olivier Duclaux, Catherine Juery, Caroline Bouchet, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5987–6003, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5987-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5987-2021, 2021
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This study presents a simple atmospheric inversion modeling framework for the localization and quantification of unknown CH4 and CO2 emissions from point sources based on near-surface mobile concentration measurements and a Gaussian plume dispersion model. It is applied for the estimate of a series of brief controlled releases of CH4 and CO2 with a wide range of rates during the TOTAL TADI-2018 experiment. Results indicate a ~10 %–40 % average error on the estimate of the release rates.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Marc Bocquet, Olivier Saunier, and Yelva Roustan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13247–13267, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13247-2021, 2021
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The assessment of the environmental consequences of a radionuclide release depends on the estimation of its source. This paper aims to develop inverse Bayesian methods which combine transport models with measurements, in order to reconstruct the ensemble of possible sources.
Three methods to quantify uncertainties based on the definition of probability distributions and the physical models are proposed and evaluated for the case of 106Ru releases over Europe in 2017.
Antoine Berchet, Espen Sollum, Rona L. Thompson, Isabelle Pison, Joël Thanwerdas, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Adrien Berchet, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Richard Engelen, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Christoph Gerbig, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Sander Houweling, Ute Karstens, Werner L. Kutsch, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guillaume Monteil, Paul I. Palmer, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Elise Potier, Christian Rödenbeck, Marielle Saunois, Marko Scholze, Aki Tsuruta, and Yuanhong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5331–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, 2021
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We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers.
The ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool. We describe the main structure and functionalities and demonstrate it in a simple academic case.
Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Thomas Lauvaux, Bo Zheng, Michel Ramonet, Irène Xueref-Remy, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10707–10726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10707-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10707-2021, 2021
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Currently there is growing interest in monitoring city-scale CO2 emissions based on atmospheric CO2 measurements, atmospheric transport modeling, and inversion technique. We analyze the various sources of uncertainty that impact the atmospheric CO2 modeling and that may compromise the potential of this method for the monitoring of CO2 emission over Paris. Results suggest selection criteria for the assimilation of CO2 measurements into the inversion system that aims at retrieving city emissions.
E. Ouerghi, T. Ehret, C. de Franchis, G. Facciolo, T. Lauvaux, E. Meinhardt, and J.-M. Morel
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2021, 81–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2021-81-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2021-81-2021, 2021
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Matthew J. McGrath, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Francesco N. Tubiello, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Pongratz, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, Matthias Kuhnert, Juraj Balkovič, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Hugo A. C. Denier van der
Gon, Efisio Solazzo, Chunjing Qiu, Roberto Pilli, Igor B. Konovalov, Richard A. Houghton, Dirk Günther, Lucia Perugini, Monica Crippa, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Pete Smith, Saqr Munassar, Rona L. Thompson, Giulia Conchedda, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2363–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CO2 fossil emissions and CO2 land fluxes in the EU27+UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with ecosystem data, land carbon models and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling CO2 estimates with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Isabelle Pison, Grégoire Broquet, Gaëlle Dufour, Antoine Berchet, Elise Potier, Adriana Coman, Guillaume Siour, and Lorenzo Costantino
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2939–2957, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2939-2021, 2021
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Up-to-date and accurate emission inventories for air pollutants are essential for understanding their role in the formation of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, for anticipating pollution peaks and for identifying the key drivers that could help mitigate their emissions. Complementarily with bottom-up inventories, the system described here aims at updating and improving the knowledge on the high spatiotemporal variability of emissions of air pollutants.
Diego Santaren, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Frédéric Chevallier, Denis Siméoni, Bo Zheng, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 403–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-403-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric transport inversions with synthetic data are used to assess the potential of new satellite observations of atmospheric CO2 to monitor anthropogenic emissions from regions, cities and large industrial plants. The analysis, applied to a large ensemble of sources in western Europe, shows a strong dependence of the results on different characteristics of the spaceborne instrument, on the source emission budgets and spreads, and on the wind conditions.
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Dominik Brunner, Grégoire Broquet, and Yasjka Meijer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 6733–6754, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6733-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6733-2020, 2020
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The European CO2M mission is a proposed constellation of CO2 imaging satellites expected to monitor CO2 emissions of large cities. Using synthetic observations, we show that a constellation of two or more satellites should be able to quantify Berlin's annual emissions with 10–20 % accuracy, even when considering atmospheric transport model errors. We therefore expect that CO2M will make an important contribution to the monitoring and verification of CO2 emissions from cities worldwide.
Yilong Wang, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Franck Lespinas, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Yasjka Meijer, Armin Loescher, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Bo Zheng, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5813–5831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5813-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5813-2020, 2020
Ying Zhu, Jia Chen, Xiao Bi, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Ka Lok Chan, Florian Dietrich, Dominik Brunner, Sheng Ye, and Mark Wenig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13241–13251, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13241-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13241-2020, 2020
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Average NO2 concentration of on-street mobile measurements (MMs) near the monitoring stations (MSs) was found to be considerably higher than the MSs data. The common measurement height (H) and distance (D) of the MSs result in 27 % lower average concentrations in total than the concentration of our MMs. Another 21 % difference remained after correcting the influence of the measuring H and D. This result makes our city-wide measurements for capturing the full range of concentrations necessary.
Guillaume Monteil, Grégoire Broquet, Marko Scholze, Matthew Lang, Ute Karstens, Christoph Gerbig, Frank-Thomas Koch, Naomi E. Smith, Rona L. Thompson, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Emily White, Antoon Meesters, Philippe Ciais, Anita L. Ganesan, Alistair Manning, Michael Mischurow, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Jerôme Tarniewicz, Matt Rigby, Christian Rödenbeck, Alex Vermeulen, and Evie M. Walton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12063–12091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, 2020
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The paper presents the first results from the EUROCOM project, a regional atmospheric inversion intercomparison exercise involving six European research groups. It aims to produce an estimate of the net carbon flux between the European terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere for the period 2006–2015, based on constraints provided by observed CO2 concentrations and using inverse modelling techniques. The use of six different models enables us to investigate the robustness of the results.
Marc Schwaerzel, Claudia Emde, Dominik Brunner, Randulph Morales, Thomas Wagner, Alexis Berne, Brigitte Buchmann, and Gerrit Kuhlmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4277–4293, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4277-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4277-2020, 2020
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Horizontal homogeneity is often assumed for trace gases remote sensing, although it is not valid where trace gas concentrations have high spatial variability, e.g., in cities. We show the importance of 3D effects for MAX-DOAS and airborne imaging spectrometers using 3D-box air mass factors implemented in the MYSTIC radiative transfer solver. In both cases, 3D information is invaluable for interpreting the measurements, as not considering 3D effects can lead to misinterpretation of measurements.
Bo Zheng, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Yilong Wang, Jinghui Lian, and Yuanhong Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8501–8510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8501-2020, 2020
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The Paris Climate Agreement requires all parties to report CO2 emissions regularly. Given the self-reporting nature of this system, it is critical to evaluate the emission reports with independent observation systems. Here we present the direct observations of city CO2 plumes from space and the quantification of CO2 emissions from these observations over the largest emitter country China. The emissions from 46 hot-spot regions representing 13 % of China's total emissions can be well constrained.
Michael Jähn, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Qing Mu, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, David Ochsner, Katherine Osterried, Valentin Clément, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2379–2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2379-2020, 2020
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Emission inventories of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are widely used as input for atmospheric chemistry transport models. However, the pre-processing of these data is both time-consuming and requires a large amount of disk storage. To overcome this issue, a Python package has been developed and tested for two different models. There, the inventory is projected to the model grid and scaling factors are provided. This approach saves computational time while remaining numerically equivalent.
Nikolay V. Balashov, Kenneth J. Davis, Natasha L. Miles, Thomas Lauvaux, Scott J. Richardson, Zachary R. Barkley, and Timothy A. Bonin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4545–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4545-2020, 2020
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An accurate independent verification methodology to estimate methane (a powerful greenhouse gas) emissions is essential for the effective implementation of policies that aim to reduce the impacts of climate change. In this paper, four uncertainties that complicate the independent estimation of urban methane emissions are identified: the definition of urban domain, background heterogeneity, emissions temporal variability, and missing sources. Ways to improve emission estimates are suggested.
Colin Grudzien, Marc Bocquet, and Alberto Carrassi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1903–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1903-2020, 2020
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All scales of a dynamical physical process cannot be resolved accurately in a multiscale, geophysical model. The behavior of unresolved scales of motion are often parametrized by a random process to emulate their effects on the dynamically resolved variables, and this results in a random–dynamical model. We study how the choice of a numerical discretization of such a system affects the model forecast and estimation statistics, when the random–dynamical model is unbiased in its parametrization.
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Grégoire Broquet, Julia Marshall, Valentin Clément, Armin Löscher, Yasjka Meijer, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 6695–6719, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-6695-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-6695-2019, 2019
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The Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) mission is a proposed constellation of imaging satellites with a CO2 instrument as main payload and optionally instruments for NO2, CO and aerosols. This study demonstrates the huge benefit of an NO2 instrument for detecting city plumes and weak point sources. Its main advantages are the higher signal-to-noise ratio and the lower sensitivity to clouds that significantly increases the number of observations available for quantifying CO2 emission.
Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, T. Scott Zaccheo, Jeremy Dobler, Michel Ramonet, Johannes Staufer, Diego Santaren, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13809–13825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13809-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13809-2019, 2019
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CO2 emissions within urban areas impact nearby and downwind concentrations. A different system, based on bi-wavelength laser measurements, has been deployed over Paris. It samples CO2 concentrations along horizontal lines, between a transceiver and a reflector. In this paper, we analyze the measurements provided by this system, together with the more classical in situ sampling and high-resolution modeling. We focus on the temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
T. Scott Zaccheo, Nathan Blume, Timothy Pernini, Jeremy Dobler, and Jinghui Lian
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5791–5800, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5791-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5791-2019, 2019
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The Greenhouse gas Laser Imaging Tomography Experiment (GreenLITE™) trace gas measurement system provides high-precision, long-path measurements of atmospheric trace gases including CO2 and CH4 over extended (0.04 km2–25 km2) areas of interest. This work provides a brief overview of the system design, a description of a newly developed bias-correction approach and the results as applied to data collected in Paris, France, over a 1-year period spanning November 2015 to December 2016.
Thomas Lauvaux, Liza I. Díaz-Isaac, Marc Bocquet, and Nicolas Bousserez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12007–12024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12007-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12007-2019, 2019
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A small-size ensemble of mesoscale simulations has been filtered to characterize the spatial structures of transport errors in atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios. The extracted error structures in in situ and column CO2 show similar length scales compared to other meteorological variables, including seasonality, which could be used as proxies in regional inversion systems.
Marc Bocquet, Julien Brajard, Alberto Carrassi, and Laurent Bertino
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 143–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-143-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-143-2019, 2019
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This paper describes an innovative way to use data assimilation to infer the dynamics of a physical system from its observation only. The method can operate with noisy and partial observation of the physical system. It acts as a deep learning technique specialised to dynamical models without the need for machine learning tools. The method is successfully tested on chaotic dynamical systems: the Lorenz-63, Lorenz-96, and Kuramoto–Sivashinski models and a two-scale Lorenz model.
Julien Brajard, Alberto Carrassi, Marc Bocquet, and Laurent Bertino
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-136, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We explore the possibility of combining data assimilation with machine learning. We introduce a new hybrid method for a two-fold scope: (i) emulating hidden, possibly chaotic, dynamics and (ii) predicting its future states. Numerical experiments have been carried out using the chaotic Lorenz 96 model, proving both the convergence of the hybrid method and its statistical skills including short-term forecasting and emulation of the long-term dynamics.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Tomohiro Oda, Franck Lespinas, Yasjka Meijer, Armin Loescher, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Bo Zheng, Haoran Xu, Shu Tao, Kevin R. Gurney, Geoffrey Roest, Diego Santaren, and Yongxian Su
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 687–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-687-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-687-2019, 2019
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We address the question of the global characterization of fossil fuel CO2 emission hotspots that may cause coherent XCO2 plumes in space-borne CO2 images, based on the ODIAC global high-resolution 1 km fossil fuel emission data product. For space imagery with 0.5 ppm precision for a single XCO2 measurement, a total of 11 314 hotspots are identified, covering 72 % of the global emissions. These hotspots define the targets for the purpose of monitoring fossil fuel CO2 emissions from space.
Liza I. Díaz-Isaac, Thomas Lauvaux, Marc Bocquet, and Kenneth J. Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5695–5718, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5695-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5695-2019, 2019
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We demonstrate that transport model errors, one of the main contributors to the uncertainty in regional CO2 inversions, can be represented by a small-size ensemble carefully calibrated with meteorological data. Our results also confirm transport model errors represent a significant fraction of the model–data mismatch in CO2 mole fractions and hence in regional inverse CO2 fluxes.
Dominik Brunner, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Julia Marshall, Valentin Clément, Oliver Fuhrer, Grégoire Broquet, Armin Löscher, and Yasjka Meijer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4541–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4541-2019, 2019
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Atmospheric transport models are increasingly being used to estimate CO2 emissions from atmospheric CO2 measurements. This study demonstrates the importance of distributing CO2 emissions vertically in the model according to realistic profiles, since a major proportion of CO2 is emitted through tall stacks from power plants and industrial sources. With the traditional approach of emitting all CO2 at the surface, models may significantly overestimate the atmospheric CO2 levels.
Felix R. Vogel, Matthias Frey, Johannes Staufer, Frank Hase, Grégoire Broquet, Irène Xueref-Remy, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Pascale Chelin, Pascal Jeseck, Christof Janssen, Yao Té, Jochen Groß, Thomas Blumenstock, Qiansi Tu, and Johannes Orphal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3271–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3271-2019, 2019
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Providing timely information on greenhouse gas emissions to stakeholders at sub-national scale is an emerging challenge and understanding urban CO2 levels is one key aspect. This study uses atmospheric observations of total column CO2 and compares them to numerical simulations to investigate CO2 levels in the Paris metropolitan area due to natural fluxes and anthropogenic emissions. Our measurements reveal the influence of locally added CO2, which our model is also able to predict.
Anna Karion, Thomas Lauvaux, Israel Lopez Coto, Colm Sweeney, Kimberly Mueller, Sharon Gourdji, Wayne Angevine, Zachary Barkley, Aijun Deng, Arlyn Andrews, Ariel Stein, and James Whetstone
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2561–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2561-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2561-2019, 2019
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In this study, we use atmospheric methane concentration observations collected during an airborne campaign to compare different model-based emissions estimates from the Barnett Shale oil and natural gas production basin in Texas, USA. We find that the tracer dispersion model has a significant impact on the results because the models differ in their simulation of vertical dispersion. Additional work is needed to evaluate and improve vertical mixing in the tracer dispersion models.
Martha P. Butler, Thomas Lauvaux, Sha Feng, Junjie Liu, Kevin W. Bowman, and Kenneth J. Davis
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-342, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This paper describes a mass-conserving framework for computing time-varying lateral boundary conditions from global model carbon dioxide concentrations for introduction into the WRF-Chem regional model. The goal is to create a laboratory environment in which carbon dioxide transport uncertainties may be explored separately from inversion-derived flux uncertainties. The software is currently available on GitHub at https://github.com/psu-inversion/WRF_Boundary_Coupling.
Dien Wu, John C. Lin, Benjamin Fasoli, Tomohiro Oda, Xinxin Ye, Thomas Lauvaux, Emily G. Yang, and Eric A. Kort
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4843–4871, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4843-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4843-2018, 2018
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Urban CO2 enhancement signals can be derived using satellite column CO2 concentrations and atmospheric transport models. However, uncertainties due to model configurations, atmospheric transport, and defined background values can potentially impact the derived urban signals. In this paper, we present a modified Lagrangian model framework that extracts urban CO2 signals from satellite observations and determines potential error impacts.
Alban Farchi and Marc Bocquet
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 765–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-765-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-765-2018, 2018
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Data assimilation looks for an optimal way to learn from observations of a dynamical system to improve the quality of its predictions. The goal is to filter out the noise (both observation and model noise) to retrieve the true signal. Among all possible methods, particle filters are promising; the method is fast and elegant, and it allows for a Bayesian analysis. In this review paper, we discuss implementation techniques for (local) particle filters in high-dimensional systems.
Liza I. Díaz-Isaac, Thomas Lauvaux, and Kenneth J. Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14813–14835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14813-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14813-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric inversions rely on the accurate representation of the atmospheric dynamics in order to produce reliable surface fluxes. In this work, we evaluate the sensitivity of a state-of-the-art mesoscale atmospheric model to the different physics parameterizations and forcing. We conclude that no model configuration is optimal across an entire region. Therefore, we recommend an ensemble approach or the assimilation of meteorological observations in future inversion studies.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Yuanyuan Huang, Yiqi Luo, Ying-Ping Wang, A. Anthony Bloom, Grégoire Broquet, Jens Hartmann, Shushi Peng, Josep Penuelas, Shilong Piao, Jordi Sardans, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rong Wang, Sönke Zaehle, and Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3903–3928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, 2018
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We present a new modeling framework called Global Observation-based Land-ecosystems Utilization Model of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (GOLUM-CNP) that combines a data-constrained C-cycle analysis with data-driven estimates of N and P inputs and losses and with observed stoichiometric ratios. GOLUM-CNP provides a traceable tool, where a consistency between different datasets of global C, N, and P cycles has been achieved.
Colin Grudzien, Alberto Carrassi, and Marc Bocquet
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 633–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-633-2018, 2018
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Using the framework Lyapunov vectors, we analyze the asymptotic properties of ensemble based Kalman filters and how these are influenced by dynamical chaos, especially in the context of random model errors and small ensemble sizes. Particularly, we show a novel derivation of the evolution of forecast uncertainty for ensemble-based Kalman filters with weakly-nonlinear error growth, and discuss its impact for filter design in geophysical models.
Olivier Pannekoucke, Marc Bocquet, and Richard Ménard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-481-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-481-2018, 2018
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The forecast of weather prediction uncertainty is a real challenge and is crucial for risk management. However, uncertainty prediction is beyond the capacity of supercomputers, and improvements of the technology may not solve this issue. A new uncertainty prediction method is introduced which takes advantage of fluid equations to predict simple quantities which approximate real uncertainty but at a low numerical cost. A proof of concept is shown by an academic model derived from fluid dynamics.
Anthony Fillion, Marc Bocquet, and Serge Gratton
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 315–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-315-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-315-2018, 2018
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This study generalizes a paper by Pires et al. (1996) to state-of-the-art data assimilation techniques, such as the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS). We show that the longer the time window over which observations are assimilated, the better the accuracy of the IEnKS. Beyond a critical time length that we estimate, we show that this accuracy finally degrades. We show that the use of the quasi-static minimizations but generalized to the IEnKS yields a significantly improved accuracy.
Yilong Wang, Grégoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Felix Vogel, Lin Wu, Yi Yin, Rong Wang, and Shu Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4229–4250, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4229-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4229-2018, 2018
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This paper assesses the potential of atmospheric 14CO2 observations and a global inversion system to solve for fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions in Europe. The estimate of monthly emission budgets is largely improved in high emitting regions. The results are sensitive to the observation network and the prior uncertainty. Using a high-resolution transport model and a systematic evaluation of the uncertainty in current emission inventories should improve the potential to retrieve FFCO2 emissions.
Abdelhadi El Yazidi, Michel Ramonet, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Isabelle Pison, Amara Abbaris, Dominik Brunner, Sebastien Conil, Marc Delmotte, Francois Gheusi, Frederic Guerin, Lynn Hazan, Nesrine Kachroudi, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Leonard Rivier, and Dominique Serça
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1599-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1599-2018, 2018
Isabelle Pison, Antoine Berchet, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Grégoire Broquet, Sébastien Conil, Marc Delmotte, Anita Ganesan, Olivier Laurent, Damien Martin, Simon O'Doherty, Michel Ramonet, T. Gerard Spain, Alex Vermeulen, and Camille Yver Kwok
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3779–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3779-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3779-2018, 2018
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Methane emissions on the national scale in France in 2012 are inferred by assimilating continuous atmospheric mixing ratio measurements from nine stations of the European network ICOS. Two complementary inversion set-ups are computed and analysed: (i) a regional run correcting for the spatial distribution of fluxes in France and (ii) a sectorial run correcting fluxes for activity sectors on the national scale. The results are compared with existing inventories and other regional inversions.
Stephanie C. Pugliese, Jennifer G. Murphy, Felix R. Vogel, Michael D. Moran, Junhua Zhang, Qiong Zheng, Craig A. Stroud, Shuzhan Ren, Douglas Worthy, and Gregoire Broquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3387–3401, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3387-2018, 2018
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We developed the Southern Ontario CO2 Emissions (SOCE) inventory, which identifies the spatial and temporal distribution (2.5 km and hourly, respectively) of CO2 emissions from seven source sectors. When the SOCE inventory was used with a chemistry transport model, we found strong agreement between modelled and measured mixing ratios. We were able to quantify that natural gas combustion contributes > 80 % of CO2 emissions at nighttime while on-road emissions contribute > 70 % during the day.
Irène Xueref-Remy, Elsa Dieudonné, Cyrille Vuillemin, Morgan Lopez, Christine Lac, Martina Schmidt, Marc Delmotte, Frédéric Chevallier, François Ravetta, Olivier Perrussel, Philippe Ciais, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, T. Gerard Spain, and Christophe Ampe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3335–3362, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3335-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3335-2018, 2018
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Urbanized and industrialized areas are the largest source of fossil CO2. This work analyses the atmospheric CO2 variability observed from the first in situ network deployed in the Paris megacity area. Gradients of several ppm are found between the rural, peri-urban and urban sites at the diurnal to the seasonal scales. Wind direction and speed as well as boundary layer dynamics, correlated to highly variable urban emissions, are shown to be key regulator factors of the observed CO2 records.
Natasha L. Miles, Douglas K. Martins, Scott J. Richardson, Christopher W. Rella, Caleb Arata, Thomas Lauvaux, Kenneth J. Davis, Zachary R. Barkley, Kathryn McKain, and Colm Sweeney
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1273–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1273-2018, 2018
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Analyzers measuring methane and methane isotopic ratio were deployed at four towers in the Marcellus Shale natural gas extraction region of Pennsylvania. The methane isotopic ratio is helpful for differentiating emissions from natural gas activities from other sources (e.g., landfills). We describe the analyzer calibration. The signals observed in the study region were generally small, but the instrumental performance demonstrated here could be used in regions with stronger enhancements.
Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Emmanuel Renault, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Heinrich Bovensmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Lin Wu, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 681–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018, 2018
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This study assesses the potential of space-borne imagery of CO2 atmospheric concentrations for monitoring the emissions from the Paris area. Such imagery could be provided by European and American missions in the next decade. It highlights the difficulty to improve current knowledge on CO2 emissions for urban areas with CO2 observations from satellites, and calls for more technological innovations in the remote sensing of CO2 and in the models that exploit it.
Sébastien Ars, Grégoire Broquet, Camille Yver Kwok, Yelva Roustan, Lin Wu, Emmanuel Arzoumanian, and Philippe Bousquet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 5017–5037, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-5017-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-5017-2017, 2017
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This study presents a new concept for estimating the pollutant emission rates of a site combining the tracer release method, local-scale atmospheric transport modelling and a statistical atmospheric inversion approach. The potential of this new concept is evaluated with a practical implementation based on a series of inversions of controlled methane and tracer point sources in different spatial configurations to assess the efficiency of the method in comparison with the classic tracer method.
Xinxin Ye, Thomas Lauvaux, Eric A. Kort, Tomohiro Oda, Sha Feng, John C. Lin, Emily Yang, and Dien Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-1022, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Rapid global urbanization and significant fossil fuel consumption by cities emphasize the necessity of achieving independent and accurate quantification of the carbon emissions from urban areas. In this paper, we assess the potential of using total column CO2 concentration observed from satellite to quantify fossil-fuel carbon emissions from cities. This study could give insights into the capability of satellite observations on monitoring of the emissions on local scale.
Zachary R. Barkley, Thomas Lauvaux, Kenneth J. Davis, Aijun Deng, Natasha L. Miles, Scott J. Richardson, Yanni Cao, Colm Sweeney, Anna Karion, MacKenzie Smith, Eric A. Kort, Stefan Schwietzke, Thomas Murphy, Guido Cervone, Douglas Martins, and Joannes D. Maasakkers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13941–13966, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13941-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13941-2017, 2017
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This study quantifies methane emissions from natural gas production in north-eastern Pennsylvania. Methane observations from 10 flights in spring 2015 are compared to model-projected values, and methane emissions from natural gas are adjusted within the model to create the best match between the two data sets. This study find methane emissions from natural gas production to be low and may be indicative of characteristics of the basin that make sources from north-eastern Pennsylvania unique.
Yanni Cao, Guido Cervone, Zachary Barkley, Thomas Lauvaux, Aijun Deng, and Alan Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3425–3440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3425-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3425-2017, 2017
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This research investigates the role and importance of reprojecting geographic information system layers used by weather numerical models as input by performing sensitivity studies of greenhouse gas transport and dispersion in northeastern Pennsylvania. To bridge the gap between geographic information system data and atmospheric models, this study presents an innovative approach by creating R code to automatically generate model input from geographic data and analyze the model output.
Camille Viatte, Thomas Lauvaux, Jacob K. Hedelius, Harrison Parker, Jia Chen, Taylor Jones, Jonathan E. Franklin, Aijun J. Deng, Brian Gaudet, Kristal Verhulst, Riley Duren, Debra Wunch, Coleen Roehl, Manvendra K. Dubey, Steve Wofsy, and Paul O. Wennberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7509–7528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7509-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7509-2017, 2017
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This study estimates methane emissions at local scale in dairy farms using four new mobile ground-based remote sensing spectrometers (EM27/SUN) and isotopic in situ measurements. Our top-down estimates are in the low end of previous studies. Inverse modeling from a comprehensive high-resolution model simulations (WRF-LES) is used to assess the geographical distribution of the emissions. Both the model and the measurements indicate a mixture of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions.
Yi Yin, Frederic Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Anne Cozic, Sophie Szopa, and Yilong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-166, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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CO inverse modelling studies have so far reported significant discrepancies between model concentrations optimised with the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite retrievals and surface in-situ measurements. Here, we assess how well a global CTM fits a large variety of independent CO observations before and after assimilating MOPITTv6 retrievals to optimise CO sources/sink and discuss potential sources of errors and their implications for global CO modelling studies.
A. Anthony Bloom, Thomas Lauvaux, John Worden, Vineet Yadav, Riley Duren, Stanley P. Sander, and David S. Schimel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15199–15218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15199-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15199-2016, 2016
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Understanding terrestrial carbon processes is a major challenge in climate science. We define the satellite system required to understand greenhouse gas biogeochemistry: our study is focused on Amazon wetland CH4 emissions. We find that future geostationary satellites will provide the CH4 measurements required to understand wetland CH4 processes. Low-earth orbit satellites will be unable to resolve wetland CH4 processes due to a low number of cloud-free CH4 measurements over the Amazon basin.
Johannes Staufer, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Vincent Puygrenier, Frédéric Chevallier, Irène Xueref-Rémy, Elsa Dieudonné, Morgan Lopez, Martina Schmidt, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Perrussel, Christine Lac, Lin Wu, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14703–14726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14703-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14703-2016, 2016
Igor B. Konovalov, Evgeny V. Berezin, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Ruslan V. Zhuravlev, and Greet Janssens-Maenhout
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13509–13540, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13509-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13509-2016, 2016
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The knowledge of CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel (FF) burning is of paramount importance both for climate prediction and mitigation policy purposes. The paper introduces a method to indirectly constrain a regional budget of FF CO2 emissions by using satellite measurements of "proxy" chemical species and evaluates its potential in application to a western European region.
Sha Feng, Thomas Lauvaux, Sally Newman, Preeti Rao, Ravan Ahmadov, Aijun Deng, Liza I. Díaz-Isaac, Riley M. Duren, Marc L. Fischer, Christoph Gerbig, Kevin R. Gurney, Jianhua Huang, Seongeun Jeong, Zhijin Li, Charles E. Miller, Darragh O'Keeffe, Risa Patarasuk, Stanley P. Sander, Yang Song, Kam W. Wong, and Yuk L. Yung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9019–9045, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9019-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9019-2016, 2016
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We developed a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO2 emissions over the LA Basin. We evaluated various model configurations, FFCO2 products, and the impact of the model resolution. FFCO2 emissions outpace the atmospheric model resolution to represent the CO2 concentration variability across the basin. A novel forward model approach is presented to evaluate the surface measurement network, reinforcing the importance of using high-resolution emission products.
Lin Wu, Grégoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Valentin Bellassen, Felix Vogel, Frédéric Chevallier, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Yilong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7743–7771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7743-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7743-2016, 2016
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This paper advances atmospheric inversion of city CO2 emissions as follows: (1) illustrate how inversion methodology can be tailored to deal with very large urban networks of sensors measuring CO2 concentrations; (2) demonstrate that atmospheric inversion could be a relevant tool of Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of city CO2 emissions; (3) clarify the theoretical potential of inversion for reducing uncertainties in the estimates of citywide total and sectoral CO2 emissions.
Alex Boon, Grégoire Broquet, Deborah J. Clifford, Frédéric Chevallier, David M. Butterfield, Isabelle Pison, Michel Ramonet, Jean-Daniel Paris, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6735–6756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6735-2016, 2016
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We measured carbon dioxide and methane concentrations at four near-ground sites located in London, 2012. We investigated the potential for using these measurements, alongside numerical modelling, to help us to understand urban greenhouse gas emissions. Low-level sites were highly sensitive to local emissions, which questions our ability to use measurements from near-ground sites in cities in some modelling applications. A gradient approach was found to be beneficial to reduce model–data errors.
J.-M. Haussaire and M. Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 393–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-393-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-393-2016, 2016
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The focus is on the development of low-order models of atmospheric transport and chemistry and their use for data assimilation purposes. A new low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model is developed. It consists of the Lorenz40-variable model used as a wind field coupled with a simple ozone photochemistry module. Advanced ensemble variational methods are applied to this model to obtain insights on the use of data assimilation with coupled models, in an offline mode or in an online mode.
P. Kountouris, C. Gerbig, K.-U. Totsche, A. J. Dolman, A. G. C. A. Meesters, G. Broquet, F. Maignan, B. Gioli, L. Montagnani, and C. Helfter
Biogeosciences, 12, 7403–7421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7403-2015, 2015
Y. Yin, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, G. Broquet, A. Fortems-Cheiney, I. Pison, and M. Saunois
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13433–13451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13433-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13433-2015, 2015
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We studied the global CO concentration decline over the recent decade with a sophisticated atmospheric inversion system assimilating MOPITT CO retrievals, surface methane and surface methyl chloroform in situ measurements. The inversion interprets the CO concentration decline as a 23% decrease in the CO emissions from 2002 to 2011, twice the negative trend estimated by emission inventories. In contrast to bottom-up inventories, we find negative trends over China and South-east Asia.
N. Kadygrov, G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, L. Rivier, C. Gerbig, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12765–12787, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12765-2015, 2015
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We study the potential of the European Integrated Carbon Observing System (ICOS) atmospheric network for estimating European CO2 ecosystem fluxes. Regional atmospheric inversions with synthetic data are used to derive it in terms of statistical uncertainty. This potential is high in western Europe and future extensions of the network will increase it in eastern Europe. Future improvements of the models underlying the inversion should also significantly decrease uncertainties at high resolution.
M. Bocquet, P. N. Raanes, and A. Hannart
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 645–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-645-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-645-2015, 2015
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The popular data assimilation technique known as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) suffers from sampling errors due to the limited size of the ensemble. This deficiency is usually cured by inflating the sampled error covariances and by using localization. This paper further develops and discusses the finite-size EnKF, or EnKF-N, a variant of the EnKF that does not require inflation. It expands the use of the EnKF-N to a wider range of dynamical regimes.
L. Molina, G. Broquet, P. Imbach, F. Chevallier, B. Poulter, D. Bonal, B. Burban, M. Ramonet, L. V. Gatti, S. C. Wofsy, J. W. Munger, E. Dlugokencky, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8423–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015, 2015
C. E. Yver Kwok, D. Müller, C. Caldow, B. Lebègue, J. G. Mønster, C. W. Rella, C. Scheutz, M. Schmidt, M. Ramonet, T. Warneke, G. Broquet, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2853–2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2853-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2853-2015, 2015
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This study presents two methods for estimating methane emissions from a waste water treatment plant (WWTP) along with results from a measurement campaign at a WWTP in Valence, France. We show that the tracer release method is suitable to quantify facility emissions, while the chamber measurements, provide insights into individual processes. We confirm that the open basins are not a major source of CH4 on the WWTP but that the pretreatment and sludge treatment are the main emitters.
G. Kuhlmann, Y. F. Lam, H. M. Cheung, A. Hartl, J. C. H. Fung, P. W. Chan, and M. O. Wenig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5627–5644, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5627-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5627-2015, 2015
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Regional NO2 distributions can be simulated by models or retrieved from satellite observations. We developed a custom OMI NO2 data product for the Pearl River delta region which reduces biases compared to the standard product. The product is used for the evaluation of a regional air quality model for which it is a useful addition to ground measurements. The unbiased NO2 data product can be very helpful for air pollution studies in urban areas.
M. Bocquet, H. Elbern, H. Eskes, M. Hirtl, R. Žabkar, G. R. Carmichael, J. Flemming, A. Inness, M. Pagowski, J. L. Pérez Camaño, P. E. Saide, R. San Jose, M. Sofiev, J. Vira, A. Baklanov, C. Carnevale, G. Grell, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5325–5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, 2015
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Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of concentrations, and perform inverse modeling. Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. We review here the current status of data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models, with a particular focus on future prospects for data assimilation in CCMM.
F. M. Bréon, G. Broquet, V. Puygrenier, F. Chevallier, I. Xueref-Remy, M. Ramonet, E. Dieudonné, M. Lopez, M. Schmidt, O. Perrussel, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1707–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1707-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1707-2015, 2015
Y. Wang, K. N. Sartelet, M. Bocquet, P. Chazette, M. Sicard, G. D'Amico, J. F. Léon, L. Alados-Arboledas, A. Amodeo, P. Augustin, J. Bach, L. Belegante, I. Binietoglou, X. Bush, A. Comerón, H. Delbarre, D. García-Vízcaino, J. L. Guerrero-Rascado, M. Hervo, M. Iarlori, P. Kokkalis, D. Lange, F. Molero, N. Montoux, A. Muñoz, C. Muñoz, D. Nicolae, A. Papayannis, G. Pappalardo, J. Preissler, V. Rizi, F. Rocadenbosch, K. Sellegri, F. Wagner, and F. Dulac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12031–12053, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12031-2014, 2014
I. B. Konovalov, E. V. Berezin, P. Ciais, G. Broquet, M. Beekmann, J. Hadji-Lazaro, C. Clerbaux, M. O. Andreae, J. W. Kaiser, and E.-D. Schulze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10383–10410, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10383-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10383-2014, 2014
M. O. L. Cambaliza, P. B. Shepson, D. R. Caulton, B. Stirm, D. Samarov, K. R. Gurney, J. Turnbull, K. J. Davis, A. Possolo, A. Karion, C. Sweeney, B. Moser, A. Hendricks, T. Lauvaux, K. Mays, J. Whetstone, J. Huang, I. Razlivanov, N. L. Miles, and S. J. Richardson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9029–9050, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9029-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9029-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
Y. Wang, K. N. Sartelet, M. Bocquet, and P. Chazette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3511–3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3511-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3511-2014, 2014
G. Kuhlmann, A. Hartl, H. M. Cheung, Y. F. Lam, and M. O. Wenig
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 451–467, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-451-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-451-2014, 2014
O. Saunier, A. Mathieu, D. Didier, M. Tombette, D. Quélo, V. Winiarek, and M. Bocquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11403–11421, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11403-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11403-2013, 2013
C. E. Yver-Kwok, D. Müller, C. Caldow, B. Lebegue, J. G. Mønster, C. W. Rella, C. Scheutz, M. Schmidt, M. Ramonet, T. Warneke, G. Broquet, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-6-9181-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-6-9181-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. Bocquet and P. Sakov
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 803–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-803-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-803-2013, 2013
G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, F.-M. Bréon, N. Kadygrov, M. Alemanno, F. Apadula, S. Hammer, L. Haszpra, F. Meinhardt, J. A. Morguí, J. Necki, S. Piacentino, M. Ramonet, M. Schmidt, R. L. Thompson, A. T. Vermeulen, C. Yver, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9039–9056, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9039-2013, 2013
M. R. Koohkan, M. Bocquet, Y. Roustan, Y. Kim, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5887–5905, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5887-2013, 2013
Y. Wang, K. N. Sartelet, M. Bocquet, and P. Chazette
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 269–283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-269-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-269-2013, 2013
Related subject area
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Quantification of CO2 hotspot emissions from OCO-3 SAM CO2 satellite images using deep learning methods
Diagnosis of winter precipitation types using the spectral bin model (version 1DSBM-19M): comparison of five methods using ICE-POP 2018 field experiment data
Improving winter condition simulations in SURFEX-TEB v9.0 with a multi-layer snow model and ice
UA-ICON with the NWP physics package (version ua-icon-2.1): mean state and variability of the middle atmosphere
Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) 2.0: an improved research and stakeholder tool for monitoring total methane emissions with high resolution worldwide using TROPOMI satellite observations
HTAP3 Fires: towards a multi-model, multi-pollutant study of fire impacts
Using a data-driven statistical model to better evaluate surface turbulent heat fluxes in weather and climate numerical models: a demonstration study
Pochva: a new hydro-thermal process model in soil, snow, and vegetation for application in atmosphere numerical models
ClimKern v1.2: a new Python package and kernel repository for calculating radiative feedbacks
Accounting for effects of coagulation and model uncertainties in particle number concentration estimates based on measurements from sampling lines – a Bayesian inversion approach with SLIC v1.0
Top-down CO emission estimates using TROPOMI CO data in the TM5-4DVAR (r1258) inverse modeling suit
The Multi-Compartment Hg Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP): mercury modeling to support international environmental policy
Similarity-based analysis of atmospheric organic compounds for machine learning applications
Porting the Meso-NH atmospheric model on different GPU architectures for the next generation of supercomputers (version MESONH-v55-OpenACC)
Estimation of aerosol and cloud radiative heating rate in the tropical stratosphere using a radiative kernel method
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
NeuralMie (v1.0): an aerosol optics emulator
A REtrieval Method for optical and physical Aerosol Properties in the stratosphere (REMAPv1)
Simulation performance of planetary boundary layer schemes in WRF v4.3.1 for near-surface wind over the western Sichuan Basin: a single-site assessment
FootNet v1.0: development of a machine learning emulator of atmospheric transport
Updates and evaluation of NOAA's online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Improving the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
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SanDyPALM v1.0: Static and Dynamic Drivers for the PALM-4U Model to Facilitate Realistic Urban Microclimate Simulations
An enhanced emission module for the PALM model system 23.10 with application for PM10 emission from urban domestic heating
Identifying lightning processes in ERA5 soundings with deep learning
Sensitivity of predicted ultrafine particle size distributions in Europe to different nucleation rate parameterizations using PMCAMx-UF v2.2
Explaining neural networks for detection of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in gridded atmospheric simulation data
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Exploring a high-level programming model for the NWP domain using ECMWF microphysics schemes
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ML-AMPSIT: Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool
Coupling the urban canopy model TEB (SURFEXv9.0) with the radiation model SPARTACUS-Urbanv0.6.1 for more realistic urban radiative exchange calculation
Comprehensive evaluation of iAMAS (v1.0) in simulating Antarctic meteorological fields with observations and reanalysis
Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0
Simulation of the heat mitigation potential of unsealing measures in cities by parameterizing grass grid pavers for urban microclimate modelling with ENVI-met (V5)
AI-NAOS: an AI-based nonspherical aerosol optical scheme for the chemical weather model GRAPES_Meso5.1/CUACE
Orbital-Radar v1.0.0: a tool to transform suborbital radar observations to synthetic EarthCARE cloud radar data
Modelling extensive green roof CO2 exchanges in the TEB urban canopy model
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3607–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, 2025
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We developed a deep learning method to estimate CO2 emissions from power plants using satellite images. Trained and validated on simulated data, our model accurately predicts emissions despite challenges like cloud cover. When applied to real OCO3 satellite images, the results closely match reported emissions. This study shows that neural networks trained on simulations can effectively analyse real satellite data, offering a new way to monitor CO2 emissions from space.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob T. Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander V. Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and GyuWon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3559–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, 2025
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Microphysics model-based diagnosis, such as the spectral bin model (SBM), has recently been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM has a relatively higher accuracy for dry-snow and wet-snow events, whereas it has lower accuracy for rain events. When the microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, the accuracy for rain events improved.
Gabriel Colas, Valéry Masson, François Bouttier, Ludovic Bouilloud, Laura Pavan, and Virve Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3453–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, 2025
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In winter, snow- and ice-covered artificial surfaces are important aspects of the urban climate. They may influence the magnitude of the urban heat island effect, but this is still unclear. In this study, we improved the representation of the snow and ice cover in the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban climate model. Evaluations have shown that the results are promising for using TEB to study the climate of cold cities.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique A. Siddiqui, Claudia C. Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3359–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, 2025
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We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with an upper-atmospheric extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). We optimized the parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations and achieved realistic modeling of the thermal and dynamic states of the mesopause regions. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Lucas A. Estrada, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, Zichong Chen, Nicholas Balasus, Sarah E. Hancock, Megan He, James D. East, Todd A. Mooring, Alexander Oort Alonso, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Ilse Aben, Sabour Baray, Kevin W. Bowman, John R. Worden, Felipe J. Cardoso-Saldaña, Emily Reidy, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, 2025
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Reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is a top policy concern for mitigating anthropogenic climate change. The Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) is an advanced, cloud-based software that translates satellite observations into actionable emissions data. Here we present IMI version 2.0 with vastly expanded capabilities. These updates enable a wider range of scientific and stakeholder applications from individual basin to global scales with continuous emissions monitoring.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
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The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Maurin Zouzoua, Sophie Bastin, Fabienne Lohou, Marie Lothon, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Mathilde Jome, Cécile Mallet, Laurent Barthes, and Guylaine Canut
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3211–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, 2025
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This study proposes using a statistical model to freeze errors due to differences in environmental forcing when evaluating the surface turbulent heat fluxes from numerical simulations with observations. The statistical model is first built with observations and then applied to the simulated environment to generate possibly observed fluxes. This novel method provides insight into differently evaluating the numerical formulation of turbulent heat fluxes with a long period of observational data.
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3175–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the result of many years of effort of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, and snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of the author's research on physical processes at the surface–atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
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We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
Matti Niskanen, Aku Seppänen, Henri Oikarinen, Miska Olin, Panu Karjalainen, Santtu Mikkonen, and Kari Lehtinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2983–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, 2025
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Particle size is a key factor determining the properties of aerosol particles which have a major influence on the climate and on human health. When measuring the particle sizes, however, sometimes the sampling lines that transfer the aerosol to the measurement device distort the size distribution, making the measurement unreliable. We propose a method to correct for the distortions and estimate the true particle sizes, improving measurement accuracy.
Johann Rasmus Nüß, Nikos Daskalakis, Fabian Günther Piwowarczyk, Angelos Gkouvousis, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Mihalis Vrekoussis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2861–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, 2025
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We estimate carbon monoxide emissions through inverse modeling, an approach where measurements of tracers in the atmosphere are fed to a model to calculate backwards in time (inverse) where the tracers came from. We introduce measurements from a new satellite instrument and show that, in most places globally, these on their own sufficiently constrain the emissions. This alleviates the need for additional datasets, which could shorten the delay for future carbon monoxide source estimates.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2747–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, 2025
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This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2701–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification of organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning models in atmospheric sciences.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
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The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
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The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
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The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
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To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
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Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
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The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
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Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Graham Mann, and Thomas Peter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, 2025
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Aerosol particles in the stratosphere affect our climate. Climate models therefore need an accurate description of their properties and evolution. Satellites measure how strongly aerosol particles extinguish light passing through the stratosphere. We describe a method to use such aerosol extinction data to retrieve the number and sizes of the aerosol particles and calculate their optical effects. The resulting data sets for models are validated against ground-based and balloon observations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
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It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
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The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
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Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
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The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
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Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Peter Wind and Willem van Caspel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3571, 2025
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This paper presents a numerical method to assess the origin of air pollution. Combined with a numerical air pollution transport and chemistry model, it can follow the contributions from a large number of emission sources. The result is a series of maps that give the relative contributions from for example all European countries at each point.
Julian Vogel, Sebastian Stadler, Ganesh Chockalingam, Afshin Afshari, Johanna Henning, and Matthias Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-144, 2025
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This study presents a toolkit to simplify input data creation for the urban microclimate model PALM-4U. It introduces novel methods to automate the use of open data sources. Our analysis of four test cases created from different geographic data sources shows variations in temperature, humidity, and wind speed, influenced by data quality. Validation indicates that the automated methods yield results comparable to expert-driven approaches, facilitating user-friendly urban climate modeling.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
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An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
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As lightning is a brief and localized event, it is not explicitly resolved in atmospheric models. Instead, expert-based auxiliary descriptions are used to assess it. This study explores how AI can improve our understanding of lightning without relying on traditional expert knowledge. We reveal that AI independently identified the key factors known to experts as essential for lightning in the Alps region. This shows how knowledge discovery could be sped up in areas with limited expert knowledge.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
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The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements at 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
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In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Raphaël Périllat, Sylvain Girard, and Irène Korsakissok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3838, 2025
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We developed a method to improve decision-making during nuclear crises by predicting the spread of radiation more efficiently. Existing approaches are often too slow, especially when analyzing complex data like radiation maps. Our method combines techniques to simplify these maps and predict them quickly using statistical tools. This approach could help authorities respond faster and more accurately in emergencies, reducing risks to the population and the environment.
Shaofeng Hua, Gang Chen, Baojun Chen, Mingshan Li, and Xin Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, 2025
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Hail forecasting using numerical models remains a challenge. In this study, we found that the commonly used graupel-to-hail conversion parameterization method led to hail overforecasting in heavy rainfall cases where no hail was observed. By incorporating the spongy wet growth process, we successfully mitigated hail overforecasting. The modified scheme also produced hail in real hail events. This research contributes to a better understanding of hail formation.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, 2025
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Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line and Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, it is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
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We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
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We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
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Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
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Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Qike Yang, Chun Zhao, Jiawang Feng, Gudongze Li, Jun Gu, Zihan Xia, Mingyue Xu, and Zining Yang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-229, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study presents the first comprehensive evaluation of unstructured meshes using the iAMAS model over Antarctica, encompassing both surface and upper-level meteorological fields. Comparison with ERA5 and observational data reveals that the iAMAS model performs well in simulating the Antarctic atmosphere; iAMAS demonstrates comparable, and in some cases superior, performance in simulating temperature and wind speed in East Antarctica when compared to ERA5.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
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Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
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Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
Xuan Wang, Lei Bi, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Wei Han, Xueshun Shen, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, 2025
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The Artificial-Intelligence-based Nonspherical Aerosol Optical Scheme (AI-NAOS) was developed to improve the estimation of the aerosol direct radiation effect and was coupled online with a chemical weather model. The AI-NAOS scheme considers black carbon as fractal aggregates and soil dust as super-spheroids, encapsulated with hygroscopic aerosols. Real-case simulations emphasize the necessity of accurately representing nonspherical and inhomogeneous aerosols in chemical weather models.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 101–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, 2025
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The Python tool Orbital-Radar transfers suborbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated numerical weather prediction model) into synthetic spaceborne cloud profiling radar data, mimicking platform-specific instrument characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat. The tool's novelty lies in simulating characteristic errors and instrument noise. Thus, existing data sets are transferred into synthetic observations and can be used for satellite calibration–validation studies.
Aurélien Mirebeau, Cécile de Munck, Bertrand Bonan, Christine Delire, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, and Stephan Weber
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The greening of cities is recommended to limit the effects of climate change. In particular, green roofs can provide numerous environmental benefits, such as urban cooling, water retention and carbon sequestration. The aim of this research is to develop a new module for calculating green roof CO2 fluxes within a model that can already simulate hydrological and thermal processes of such roofs. The calibration and evaluation of this module take advantage of long term experimental data.
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Short summary
Monitoring of CO2 emissions is key to the development of reduction policies. Local emissions, from cities or power plants, may be estimated from CO2 plumes detected in satellite images. CO2 plumes generally have a weak signal and are partially concealed by highly variable background concentrations and instrument errors, which hampers their detection. To address this problem, we propose and apply deep learning methods to detect the contour of a plume in simulated CO2 satellite images.
Monitoring of CO2 emissions is key to the development of reduction policies. Local emissions,...
