Articles | Volume 16, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
27 Jun 2023
Model description paper |
| 27 Jun 2023
| 27 Jun 2023
The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 2: The global carbon cycle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Tatiana Ilyina
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Christoph Heinze
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Mahé Perrette
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Malte Heinemann
Institute of Geosciences, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
Daniela Dalmonech
Forest Modelling Laboratory, Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Victor Brovkin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
CEN, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
visiting scientist at: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Guy Munhoven
Dépt. d’Astrophysique, Géophysique et Océanographie, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium
Janine Börker
Institute for Geology, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Jens Hartmann
Institute for Geology, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Gibran Romero-Mujalli
Institute for Geology, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Andrey Ganopolski
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a fast Earth system model we trace the stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the combined freshwater forcing–atmospheric CO2 space. We find four different Atlantic meridional overturning circulation states that are stable under different conditions and a generally increasing equilibrium Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength with increasing CO2 concentrations.
Christine Kaufhold, Matteo Willeit, Bo Liu, and Andrey Ganopolski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study simulates long-term future climate scenarios to examine how long CO2 emissions will persist in the atmosphere. It shows that the effectiveness of carbon removal processes varies with the amount emitted. The removal of CO2 through silicate weathering is faster than previously thought, leading to a quicker reduction over time. The combined behaviour of different carbon cycle processes emphasizes the need to include all of them in models, as to better predict long-term atmospheric CO2.
Chenzhi Li, Anne Dallmeyer, Jian Ni, Manuel Chevalier, Matteo Willeit, Andrei A. Andreev, Xianyong Cao, Laura Schild, Birgit Heim, and Ulrike Herzschuh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1862, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global megabiome dynamics and distributions derived from pollen-based reconstructions over the last 21,000 years, which are suitable for the evaluation of Earth System Model-based paleo-megabiome simulations. We identified strong deviations between pollen- and model-derived megabiome distributions in the circum-Arctic areas and Tibetan Plateau during the Last Glacial Maximum and early deglaciation, as well as in North Africa and the Mediterranean regions during the Holocene.
Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To trigger glacial inception, the summer maximum insolation at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere must be lower than a critical value. This value is not constant but depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Paleoclimatic data do not give enough information to derive the relationship between the critical threshold and CO2. However, knowledge of such a relation is important for predicting future glaciations and the impact anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Neil R. Edwards, and Stefan Rahmstorf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model that can simulate Dansgaard-Oeschger-like events, we show that the conditions under which millenial-scale climate variability occurs is related to the integrated surface buoyancy flux over the northern North-Atlantic. This newly defined buoyancy measure explains why millenial-scale climate variability arising from abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation occurred for mid-glacial conditions but not for interglacial or full glacial conditions.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, and Jyoti Jadhav
Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Reinhard Calov, Sebastian Beyer, Ralf Greve, Johanna Beckmann, Matteo Willeit, Thomas Kleiner, Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 3097–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections for the Greenland glacial system with the new glacial system model IGLOO 1.0, which incorporates the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS 3.3, a model of basal hydrology and a parameterization of submarine melt of outlet glaciers. Surface temperature and mass balance anomalies from the MAR climate model serve as forcing delivering projections for the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise and submarine melt of Helheim and Store outlet glaciers.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on surface albedo. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the parameterization of snow grain size and the effect of dust deposition on snow albedo.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3817–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
PALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies.
M. Willeit and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 11, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we explore the permafrost–ice-sheet interaction using the fully coupled climate–ice-sheet model CLIMBER-2 with the addition of a newly developed permafrost module. We find that permafrost has a moderate but significant effect on ice sheet dynamics during the last glacial cycle. In particular at the Last Glacial Maximum the inclusion of permafrost leads to a 15m sea level equivalent increase in Northern Hemisphere ice volume when permafrost is included.
D. Dalmonech, A. M. Foley, A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, A. D. Friend, M. Kidston, M. Willeit, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Biogeosciences, 11, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, 2014
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1749–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, 2013
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a fast Earth system model we trace the stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the combined freshwater forcing–atmospheric CO2 space. We find four different Atlantic meridional overturning circulation states that are stable under different conditions and a generally increasing equilibrium Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength with increasing CO2 concentrations.
Niels Suitner, Giulia Faucher, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Charly A. Moras, Ulf Riebesell, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 4587–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies described the precipitation of carbonates as a result of alkalinity enhancement in seawater, which could adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches. By conducting experiments in natural seawater, this study observed uniform patterns during the triggered runaway carbonate precipitation, which allow the prediction of safe and efficient local application levels of OAE scenarios.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Christine Kaufhold, Matteo Willeit, Bo Liu, and Andrey Ganopolski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study simulates long-term future climate scenarios to examine how long CO2 emissions will persist in the atmosphere. It shows that the effectiveness of carbon removal processes varies with the amount emitted. The removal of CO2 through silicate weathering is faster than previously thought, leading to a quicker reduction over time. The combined behaviour of different carbon cycle processes emphasizes the need to include all of them in models, as to better predict long-term atmospheric CO2.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the CMIP6-LUMIP project. We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.20 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasise the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Chenzhi Li, Anne Dallmeyer, Jian Ni, Manuel Chevalier, Matteo Willeit, Andrei A. Andreev, Xianyong Cao, Laura Schild, Birgit Heim, and Ulrike Herzschuh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1862, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global megabiome dynamics and distributions derived from pollen-based reconstructions over the last 21,000 years, which are suitable for the evaluation of Earth System Model-based paleo-megabiome simulations. We identified strong deviations between pollen- and model-derived megabiome distributions in the circum-Arctic areas and Tibetan Plateau during the Last Glacial Maximum and early deglaciation, as well as in North Africa and the Mediterranean regions during the Holocene.
Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To trigger glacial inception, the summer maximum insolation at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere must be lower than a critical value. This value is not constant but depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Paleoclimatic data do not give enough information to derive the relationship between the critical threshold and CO2. However, knowledge of such a relation is important for predicting future glaciations and the impact anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Neil R. Edwards, and Stefan Rahmstorf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model that can simulate Dansgaard-Oeschger-like events, we show that the conditions under which millenial-scale climate variability occurs is related to the integrated surface buoyancy flux over the northern North-Atlantic. This newly defined buoyancy measure explains why millenial-scale climate variability arising from abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation occurred for mid-glacial conditions but not for interglacial or full glacial conditions.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
Annika Nolte, Ezra Haaf, Benedikt Heudorfer, Steffen Bender, and Jens Hartmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1215–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines about 8000 groundwater level (GWL) time series from five continents to explore similarities in groundwater systems at different scales. Statistical metrics and machine learning techniques are applied to identify common GWL dynamics patterns and analyze their controlling factors. The study also highlights the potential and limitations of this data-driven approach to improve our understanding of groundwater recharge and discharge processes.
Allanah Joy Paul, Mathias Haunost, Silvan Urs Goldenberg, Jens Hartmann, Nicolás Sánchez, Julieta Schneider, Niels Suitner, and Ulf Riebesell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-417, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is being assessed for its potential to absorb atmospheric CO2 and store it for a long time. OAE still needs comprehensive assessment of its safety and effectiveness. We studied an idealised OAE application in a natural low nutrient ecosystem over one month. Our results showed that biogeochemical functioning remained mostly stable, but that the long-term capability for storing carbon may be limited at high alkalinity concentration.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernadello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach with Earth System Models to provide simulations in which all ESMs converge at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the CMIP scenarios. This new type of target-based emission-driven simulations offers a more coherent assessment across ESMs for studying both the carbon cycle and impacts under climate stabilization.
István Dunkl, Ana Bastos, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-7, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
While the climate mode El Niño-Southern Oscillation has a similar impact on CO2 growth rate in earth system models, there is a high uncertainty in the processes behind this relationship. We found a compensatory effect masking differences in the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate anomalies, and that the carbon fluxes contributing to global CO2 anomaly originate from different regions and are caused by different drivers.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations. We successfully identified problems of global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues that should be solved in the latest generation of models, land use change CO2 emissions.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 151–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite significant progress in modelling Quaternary climate dynamics, a comprehensive theory of glacial cycles is still lacking. Here, using the results of model simulations and data analysis, I present a framework of the generalized Milankovitch theory (GMT), which further advances the concept proposed by Milutin Milankovitch over a century ago. The theory explains a number of facts which were not known during Milankovitch time's, such as the 100 kyr periodicity of the late Quaternary.
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, and Jyoti Jadhav
Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Christine Kaufhold and Andrey Ganopolski
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 89–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-89-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-89-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A repository in Germany must be secure for a period of at least 1 million years. We argue that the deep-future climate should be considered in the site selection process. A suite of possible future climates will be provided, using different emission scenarios. In low-emission scenarios, glacial cycles will quickly resume, changing subterranean stress and permafrost. In high-emission scenarios, the sea level will rise. Both regimes should be of interest to those working on nuclear waste disposal.
Ying Ye, Guy Munhoven, Peter Köhler, Martin Butzin, Judith Hauck, Özgür Gürses, and Christoph Völker
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-181, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-181, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Many biogeochemistry models assume all material reaching the seafloor is remineralized and returned to solution, which is sufficient for studies on short-term climate change. Under long-term climate change the storage of carbon in sediments slows down carbon cycling and influences feedbacks in the atmosphere-ocean-sediment system. Here we coupled a sediment model to an ocean biogeochemistry model and found a shift of carbon storage from the atmosphere to the ocean-sediment system.
István Dunkl, Nicole Lovenduski, Alessio Collalti, Vivek K. Arora, Tatiana Ilyina, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 3523–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite differences in the reproduction of gross primary productivity (GPP) by Earth system models (ESMs), ESMs have similar predictability of the global carbon cycle. We found that, although GPP variability originates from different regions and is driven by different climatic variables across the ESMs, the ESMs rely on the same mechanisms to predict their own GPP. This shows that the predictability of the carbon cycle is limited by our understanding of variability rather than predictability.
Nele Lehmann, Hugues Lantuit, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jens Hartmann, Antje Eulenburg, and Helmuth Thomas
Biogeosciences, 20, 3459–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3459-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Riverine alkalinity in the silicate-dominated headwater catchment at subarctic Iskorasfjellet, northern Norway, was almost entirely derived from weathering of minor carbonate occurrences in the riparian zone. The uphill catchment appeared limited by insufficient contact time of weathering agents and weatherable material. Further, alkalinity increased with decreasing permafrost extent. Thus, with climate change, alkalinity generation is expected to increase in this permafrost-degrading landscape.
Mingyang Tian, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, Thorben Amann, Lishan Ran, and Ji-Hyung Park
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-131, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Effective water quality management in the Elbe River from 1984 to 2018 significantly reduced CO2 emissions, particularly after Germany's reunification. Key factors in the reduction include organic carbon removal and nutrient management, with nitrogen control being more critical than phosphorus for the restoration of ecosystem capacity. Unpredictable influxes of organic carbon and the relocation of emissions from wastewater treatment can cause uncertainties for CO2 removals.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Thomas Kleinen, Sergey Gromov, Benedikt Steil, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 19, 1081–1099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled atmospheric methane continuously from the last glacial maximum to the present using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. Our model results compare well with reconstructions from ice cores and improve our understanding of a very intriguing period of Earth system history, the deglaciation, when atmospheric methane changed quickly and strongly. Deglacial methane changes are driven by emissions from tropical wetlands, with wetlands in high northern latitudes being secondary.
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Shuang Gao, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Ingo Bethke, Jens Hartmann, Emilio Mayorga, and Christoph Heinze
Biogeosciences, 20, 93–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impact of riverine nutrients and carbon (C) on projected marine primary production (PP) and C uptake using a fully coupled Earth system model. Riverine inputs alleviate nutrient limitation and thus lessen the projected PP decline by up to 0.7 Pg C yr−1 globally. The effect of increased riverine C may be larger than the effect of nutrient inputs in the future on the projected ocean C uptake, while in the historical period increased nutrient inputs are considered the largest driver.
Leonidas Linardakis, Irene Stemmler, Moritz Hanke, Lennart Ramme, Fatemeh Chegini, Tatiana Ilyina, and Peter Korn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9157–9176, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In Earth system modelling, we are facing the challenge of making efficient use of very large machines, with millions of cores. To meet this challenge we will need to employ multi-level and multi-dimensional parallelism. Component concurrency, being a function parallel technique, offers an additional dimension to the traditional data-parallel approaches. In this paper we examine the behaviour of component concurrency and identify the conditions for its optimal application.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1897–1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we quantify contributions of the Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets to the strength of Saharan greening during late Quaternary African humid periods (AHPs). Orbital forcing is found as the dominant factor, having a critical threshold and accounting for most of the changes in the vegetation response. However, results suggest that GHGs may influence the orbital threshold and thus may play a pivotal role for future AHPs.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Frederieke Miesner, Paul P. Overduin, Matteo Puglini, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice.
Thomas Extier, Katharina D. Six, Bo Liu, Hanna Paulsen, and Tatiana Ilyina
Clim. Past, 18, 273–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-273-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-273-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The role of land–sea fluxes during deglacial flooding in ocean biogeochemistry and CO2 exchange remains poorly constrained due to the lack of climate models that consider such fluxes. We implement the terrestrial organic matter fluxes into the ocean at a transiently changing land–sea interface in MPI-ESM and investigate their effect during the last deglaciation. Most of the terrestrial carbon goes to the ocean during flooding events of Meltwater Pulse 1a, which leads to regional CO2 outgassing.
István Dunkl, Aaron Spring, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The variability in atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by terrestrial carbon fluxes. These land–atmosphere fluxes are predictable for around 2 years, but the mechanisms providing the predictability are not well understood. By decomposing the predictability of carbon fluxes into individual contributors we were able to explain the spatial and seasonal patterns and the interannual variability of CO2 flux predictability.
Stefanie Talento and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1275–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Bo Liu, Katharina D. Six, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 18, 4389–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4389-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4389-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We incorporate a new representation of the stable carbon isotope 13C in a global ocean biogeochemistry model. The model well reproduces the present-day 13C observations. We find a recent observation-based estimate of the oceanic 13C Suess effect (the decrease in 13C/12C ratio due to uptake of anthropogenic CO2; 13CSE) possibly underestimates 13CSE by 0.1–0.26 per mil. The new model will aid in better understanding the past ocean state via comparison to 13C/12C measurements from sediment cores.
Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4225–4240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4225-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4225-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
SolveSAPHE (Munhoven, 2013) was the first package to calculate pH reliably from any physically sensible pair of total alkalinity (AlkT) and dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) data and to do so in an autonomous and efficient way. Here, we extend it to use CO2, HCO3 or CO3 instead of CT. For each one of these pairs, the new SolveSAPHE calculates all of the possible pH values (0, 1, or 2), again without any prior knowledge of the solutions.
Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3603–3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3603-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sea-floor sediments play an important role in biogeochemical cycling of elements (e.g. carbon, silicon, nutrients) in the ocean. Realistic sediment modules are, however, not yet commonly used in global ocean biogeochemical models. Here we present MEDUSA, a model of the processes taking place in the surface sea-floor sediments which control the interaction between the sediments and the ocean. MEDUSA can be configured to meet the exact needs of any given ocean biogeochemical model.
Anne L. Morée, Jörg Schwinger, Ulysses S. Ninnemann, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Ingo Bethke, and Christoph Heinze
Clim. Past, 17, 753–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-753-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-753-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This modeling study of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21 000 years ago) ocean explores the biological and physical changes in the ocean needed to satisfy marine proxy records, with a focus on the carbon isotope 13C. We estimate that the LGM ocean may have been up to twice as efficient at sequestering carbon and nutrients at depth as compared to preindustrial times. Our work shows that both circulation and biogeochemical changes must have occurred between the LGM and preindustrial times.
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
With large amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils and a highly energy-limited vegetation the Arctic is very sensitive to changes in climate. Here our simulations with the land surface model JSBACH reveal a number of offsetting factors moderating the Arctic's net response to global warming. More importantly we find that the effects of climate change may not be fully reversible on decadal timescales, leading to substantially different CH4 emissions depending on whether the Arctic warms or cools.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Dipayan Choudhury, Axel Timmermann, Fabian Schloesser, Malte Heinemann, and David Pollard
Clim. Past, 16, 2183–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our study is the first study to conduct transient simulations over MIS 7, using a 3-D coupled climate–ice sheet model with interactive ice sheets in both hemispheres. We find glacial inceptions to be more sensitive to orbital variations, whereas glacial terminations need the concerted action of both orbital and CO2 forcings. We highlight the issue of multiple equilibria and an instability due to stationary-wave–topography feedback that can trigger unrealistic North American ice sheet growth.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Matteo Puglini, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Regnier, and Sandra Arndt
Biogeosciences, 17, 3247–3275, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3247-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A reaction-transport model to assess the potential non-turbulent methane flux from the East Siberian Arctic sediments to water columns is applied here. We show that anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is an efficient filter except for high values of sedimentation rate and advective flow, which enable considerable non-turbulent steady-state methane fluxes. Significant transient methane fluxes can also occur during the building-up phase of the AOM-performing biomass microbial community.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Jerry F. Tjiputra, Jörg Schwinger, Mats Bentsen, Anne L. Morée, Shuang Gao, Ingo Bethke, Christoph Heinze, Nadine Goris, Alok Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2393–2431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean biogeochemistry plays an important role in determining the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Earth system models, which are regularly used to study and project future climate change, generally include an ocean biogeochemistry component. Prior to their application, such models are rigorously validated against real-world observations. In this study, we evaluate the ability of the ocean biogeochemistry in the Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 to simulate various datasets.
Wagner de Oliveira Garcia, Thorben Amann, Jens Hartmann, Kristine Karstens, Alexander Popp, Lena R. Boysen, Pete Smith, and Daniel Goll
Biogeosciences, 17, 2107–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2107-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Biomass-based terrestrial negative emission technologies (tNETS) have high potential to sequester CO2. Many CO2 uptake estimates do not include the effect of nutrient deficiencies in soils on biomass production. We show that nutrients can be partly resupplied by enhanced weathering (EW) rock powder application, increasing the effectiveness of tNETs. Depending on the deployed amounts of rock powder, EW could also improve soil hydrology, adding a new dimension to the coupling of tNETs with EW.
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 17, 1765–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Marine micro-algae bind carbon dioxide, CO2. During their decay, snowflake-like aggregates form that sink, remineralize and transport organically bound CO2 to depth; this is referred to as the biological carbon pump. In our model study, we elucidate how variable aggregate composition impacts the global pattern of vertical carbon fluxes. Our mechanistic model approach advances the representation of the global biological carbon pump and promotes a more realistic projection under climate change.
Thomas Kleinen, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 16, 575–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in natural methane emissions between the Last Glacial Maximum and preindustrial periods with a methane-enabled version of MPI-ESM. We consider all natural sources of methane except for emissions from wild animals and geological sources. Changes are dominated by changes in tropical wetland emissions, high-latitude wetlands play a secondary role, and all other natural sources are of minor importance. We explain the changes in ice core methane by methane emissions only.
Takasumi Kurahashi-Nakamura, André Paul, Guy Munhoven, Ute Merkel, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 825–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-825-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-825-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical processes in ocean-floor sediments have a large influence on the marine carbon cycle, hence the global climate, at long timescales. We developed a new coupling scheme for a chemical sediment model and a comprehensive climate model. The new coupled model outperformed the original uncoupled climate model in reproducing the global distribution of sediment properties. The sediment model will also act as a
bridgebetween the ocean model and paleoceanographic data.
Thorben Amann, Jens Hartmann, Eric Struyf, Wagner de Oliveira Garcia, Elke K. Fischer, Ivan Janssens, Patrick Meire, and Jonas Schoelynck
Biogeosciences, 17, 103–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-103-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-103-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Weathering is a major control on atmospheric CO2 at geologic timescales. Enhancement of this process can be used to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Field results are still scarce and with this experiment we try to add some near-natural insights into dissolution processes. Results show CO2 sequestration potentials but also highlight the strong variability of outcomes that can be expected in natural environments. Such experiments are of the utmost importance to identify key processes.
Fabrice Lacroix, Tatiana Ilyina, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 17, 55–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions of rivers to the oceanic cycling of carbon have been poorly represented in global models until now. Here, we assess the long–term implications of preindustrial riverine loads in the ocean in a novel framework which estimates the loads through a hierarchy of weathering and land–ocean export models. We investigate their impacts for the oceanic biological production and air–sea carbon flux. Finally, we assess the potential incorporation of the framework in an Earth system model.
Georgii A. Alexandrov, Victor A. Brovkin, Thomas Kleinen, and Zicheng Yu
Biogeosciences, 17, 47–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, 2020
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Michelle Tigchelaar, Axel Timmermann, Tobias Friedrich, Malte Heinemann, and David Pollard
The Cryosphere, 13, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2615-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2615-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet has expanded and retracted often in the past, but, so far, studies have not identified which environmental driver is most important: air temperature, snowfall, ocean conditions or global sea level. In a modeling study of 400 000 years of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability we isolated different drivers and found that no single driver dominates. Air temperature and sea level are most important and combine in a synergistic way, with important implications for future change.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 501–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of
emergent constraintsis a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate projections using historical simulations and observations. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the applicability of the method and uncover possible limitations. Key limitations are a lack of comparability (temporal, spatial, and conceptual) between models and observations and the disagreement between models on system dynamics throughout different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Thorben Amann and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 16, 2949–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2949-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2949-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
With the recent publication of the IPCC special report on the 1.5 °C target and increased attention on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, we think it is time to advance from the current way of looking at specific strategies to a more holistic CDR perspective, since multiple "side effects" may lead to additional CO2 uptake into different carbon pools. This paper explores potential co-benefits between terrestrial CDR strategies to facilitate a maximum CO2 sequestration effect.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanisms of atmospheric CO2 growth by 20 ppm from 6000 BCE to the pre-industrial period are still uncertain. We apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of the climate–carbon cycle. An additional process, e.g. carbonate accumulation on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
Malte Heinemann, Joachim Segschneider, and Birgit Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1869-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1869-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean CO2 uptake played a crucial role for the global cooling during ice ages. Dust formation, e.g. by ice scraping over bedrock, potentially contributed to this CO2 uptake because (1) the iron in the dust is a fertilizer and (2) the heavy dust particles can accelerate sinking organic matter (ballasting hypothesis). This study tests the glacial dust ballasting hypothesis for the first time, using an ocean model. It turns out, however, that the ballasting effect probably played a minor role.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 15, 335–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A simple but powerful method for the biomisation of plant functional type distributions is introduced and tested for six different dynamic global vegetation models based on pre-industrial and palaeo-simulations. The method facilitates the direct comparison between vegetation distributions simulated by different Earth system models and between model results and the pollen-based biome reconstructions. It is therefore a powerful tool for the evaluation of Earth system models.
Christoph Heinze and Klaus Hasselmann
Biogeosciences, 16, 751–753, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-751-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-751-2019, 2019
Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Gaojun Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 191–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-191-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-191-2019, 2019
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Kleinen, Gustaf Hugelius, Christian Knoblauch, Christian Beer, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 14, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Past cold ice age temperatures and the subsequent warming towards the Holocene had large consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in perennially frozen grounds. Using an Earth system model we show how the spread in areas affected by permafrost have changed under deglacial warming, along with changes in SOC accumulation. Our model simulations suggest phases of circum-Arctic permafrost SOC gain and losses, with a net increase in SOC between the last glacial maximum and the pre-industrial.
Hanna Paulsen, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Katharina D. Six, and Irene Stemmler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1283–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use an Earth system model to study the effects of light absorption by marine cyanobacteria on climate. We find that cyanobacteria have a considerable cooling effect on tropical SST with implications for ocean and atmosphere circulation patterns as well as for climate variability. The results indicate the importance of considering phytoplankton light absorption in climate models, and specifically highlight the role of cyanobacteria due to their regulative effect on tropical SST and climate.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Anne L. Morée, Jörg Schwinger, and Christoph Heinze
Biogeosciences, 15, 7205–7223, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7205-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7205-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in the distribution of the carbon isotope 13C can be used to study the climate system if the governing processes (ocean circulation and biogeochemistry) are understood. We show the Southern Ocean importance for the global 13C distribution and that changes in 13C can be strongly influenced by biogeochemistry. Interpretation of 13C as a proxy for climate signals needs to take into account the effects of changes in biogeochemistry in addition to changes in ocean circulation.
Thomas Riddick, Victor Brovkin, Stefan Hagemann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Glacial Maximum, many rivers were blocked by the presence of large ice sheets and thus found new routes to the sea. This resulted in changes in the pattern of freshwater discharge into the oceans and thus would have significantly affected ocean circulation. Also, rivers found routes across the vast exposed continental shelves to the lower coastlines of that time. We propose a model for such changes in river routing suitable for use in wider models of the last glacial cycle.
Reinhard Calov, Sebastian Beyer, Ralf Greve, Johanna Beckmann, Matteo Willeit, Thomas Kleiner, Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 3097–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections for the Greenland glacial system with the new glacial system model IGLOO 1.0, which incorporates the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS 3.3, a model of basal hydrology and a parameterization of submarine melt of outlet glaciers. Surface temperature and mass balance anomalies from the MAR climate model serve as forcing delivering projections for the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise and submarine melt of Helheim and Store outlet glaciers.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Yuanyuan Huang, Yiqi Luo, Ying-Ping Wang, A. Anthony Bloom, Grégoire Broquet, Jens Hartmann, Shushi Peng, Josep Penuelas, Shilong Piao, Jordi Sardans, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rong Wang, Sönke Zaehle, and Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3903–3928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new modeling framework called Global Observation-based Land-ecosystems Utilization Model of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (GOLUM-CNP) that combines a data-constrained C-cycle analysis with data-driven estimates of N and P inputs and losses and with observed stoichiometric ratios. GOLUM-CNP provides a traceable tool, where a consistency between different datasets of global C, N, and P cycles has been achieved.
Christoph Heinze, Tatiana Ilyina, and Marion Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 15, 3521–3539, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3521-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3521-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean becomes increasingly acidified through uptake of additional man-made CO2 from the atmosphere. This is impacting ecosystems. In order to find out whether reduced biological production of calcium carbonate shell material of biota is occurring at a large scale, we carried out a model study simulating the changes in oceanic 230Th concentrations with reduced availability of calcium carbonate particles in the water. 230Th can serve as a useful magnifying glass for acidification impacts.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on surface albedo. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the parameterization of snow grain size and the effect of dust deposition on snow albedo.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Ji-Hyung Park, Omme K. Nayna, Most S. Begum, Eliyan Chea, Jens Hartmann, Richard G. Keil, Sanjeev Kumar, Xixi Lu, Lishan Ran, Jeffrey E. Richey, Vedula V. S. S. Sarma, Shafi M. Tareq, Do Thi Xuan, and Ruihong Yu
Biogeosciences, 15, 3049–3069, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3049-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3049-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities are drastically altering water and material flows in river systems across Asia. This review provides a conceptual framework for assessing the human impacts on Asian river C fluxes and an update on anthropogenic alterations of riverine C fluxes, focusing on the impacts of water pollution and river impoundments on CO2 outgassing from the rivers draining South, Southeast, and East Asian regions that account for the largest fraction of river discharge and C exports from Asia.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 301–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-301-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-301-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland's glaciers that are in contact with the ocean undergo a special ice–ocean melting. To project numerically Greenland's centennial contribution to sea level rise, it is crucial to incorporate this special melting. We demonstrate that a numerically cheap model shows the qualitative same behavior as numerical expensive 2–3-dimensional models and calculates the same melting as empirical data show. Our analytical solution gives some insight in the yet poorly understood melting behavior.
Maarit Raivonen, Sampo Smolander, Leif Backman, Jouni Susiluoto, Tuula Aalto, Tiina Markkanen, Jarmo Mäkelä, Janne Rinne, Olli Peltola, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Marin Tomasic, Xuefei Li, Tuula Larmola, Sari Juutinen, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Martin Heimann, Sanna Sevanto, Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Timo Vesala
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4665–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands are one of the most significant natural sources of the strong greenhouse gas methane. We developed a model that can be used within a larger wetland carbon model to simulate the methane emissions. In this study, we present the model and results of its testing. We found that the model works well with different settings and that the results depend primarily on the rate of input anoxic soil respiration and also on factors that affect the simulated oxygen concentrations in the wetland soil.
Andrey Ganopolski and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores reveal that atmospheric CO2 concentration varied synchronously with the global ice volume. Explaining the mechanism of glacial–interglacial variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the link between CO2 and ice sheets evolution still remains a challenge. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity we performed for the first time simulations of co-evolution of climate, ice sheets and carbon cycle using the astronomical forcing as the only external forcing.
Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Valerio Avitabile, Leonardo Calle, Nuno Carvalhais, Philippe Ciais, Fabian Gans, Nicolas Gruber, Jens Hartmann, Martin Herold, Kazuhito Ichii, Martin Jung, Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Ronny Lauerwald, Dario Papale, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, Deepak Ray, Pierre Regnier, Christian Rödenbeck, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Christopher Schwalm, Gianluca Tramontana, Alexandra Tyukavina, Riccardo Valentini, Guido van der Werf, Tristram O. West, Julie E. Wolf, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3685–3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Here we synthesize a wide range of global spatiotemporal observational data on carbon exchanges between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. A key challenge was to consistently combining observational products of terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Our primary goal is to identify today’s key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that would need to be addressed in future measurement campaigns or expansions of in situ observatories.
Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Nadine Goris, Katharina D. Six, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Christoph Heinze, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 14, 3633–3648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3633-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3633-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Transient global warming under the high emission scenario RCP8.5 is amplified by up to 6 % if a pH dependency of marine DMS production is assumed. Importantly, this additional warming is not spatially homogeneous but shows a pronounced north–south gradient. Over the Antarctic continent, the additional warming is almost twice the global average. In the Southern Ocean we find a small DMS–climate feedback that counteracts the original reduction of DMS production due to ocean acidification.
Eva Bauer and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 13, 819–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-819-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-819-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Transient glacial cycle simulations with an EMIC and the PDD method require smaller melt factors for inception than for termination and larger factors for American than European ice sheets. The PDD online method with standard values simulates a sea level drop of 250 m at the LGM. The PDD online run reproducing the LGM ice volume has deficient ablation for reversing from glacial to interglacial climate, so termination is delayed. The SEB method with dust impact on snow albedo is seen as superior.
Mario Krapp, Alexander Robinson, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 11, 1519–1535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1519-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1519-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present the snowpack model SEMIC. It calculates snow height, surface temperature, surface albedo, and the surface mass balance of snow- and ice-covered surfaces while using meteorological data as input. In this paper we describe how SEMIC works and how well it compares with snowpack data of a more sophisticated regional climate model applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Because of its simplicity and efficiency, SEMIC can be used as a coupling interface between atmospheric and ice sheet models.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Teresa Beaty, Christoph Heinze, Taylor Hughlett, and Arne M. E. Winguth
Biogeosciences, 14, 781–797, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-781-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-781-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study HAMOCC2.0 is used to address how mechanisms of oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) expansion respond to changes in CO2 radiative forcing within the model. Atmospheric pCO2 is increased at a rate of 1 % annually until stabilized. Our study suggests that expansion in the Pacific Ocean within the model is controlled largely by changes in particulate organic carbon export (POC). The vertical expansion of the OMZs in the Atlantic and Indian oceans is linked to reduced oxygen solubility.
Beniamino Abis and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 14, 511–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-511-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-511-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We study the link between the boreal tree-cover fraction distribution and eight globally observed environmental factors. We find that they exert a strong control over the tree-cover distribution, generally uniquely determining its state. Furthermore, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative tree-cover states under the same environmental conditions. These areas represent transition zones with reduced resilience, where the forest can shift between different vegetation states.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Clim. Past, 12, 2145–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate trends in atmospheric CO2 during three recent interglacials – the Holocene, the Eemian and MIS 11 – using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our model experiments show a considerable improvement in the modelled CO2 trends for all three interglacials if peat accumulation and shallow water CaCO3 sedimentation are included, forcing the model only with orbital and sea level changes. The Holocene CO2 trend requires anthropogenic emissions of CO2 only after 3 ka BP.
Veronika Eyring, Peter J. Gleckler, Christoph Heinze, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, V. Balaji, Eric Guilyardi, Sylvie Joussaume, Stephan Kindermann, Bryan N. Lawrence, Gerald A. Meehl, Mattia Righi, and Dean N. Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 813–830, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We argue that the CMIP community has reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently to enable a systematic and rapid performance assessment of the large number of models participating in CMIP, and we announce our intention to implement such a system for CMIP6. At the same time, continuous scientific research is required to develop innovative metrics and diagnostics that help narrowing the spread in climate projections.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3817–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
PALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies.
Sylvia S. Nyawira, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Axel Don, Victor Brovkin, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 13, 5661–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an approach applicable to dynamic global vegetation models for evaluating simulated soil carbon changes from land-use changes against meta-analyses. The approach makes use of the large spatial coverage of the observations, and accounts for different ages of the sampled land-use transitions. The evaluation offers an opportunity for identifying causes of model–data discrepancies. Applied to the model JSBACH, we find that introducing crop harvest substantially improves the results.
Christoph Heinze, Babette A. A. Hoogakker, and Arne Winguth
Clim. Past, 12, 1949–1978, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1949-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1949-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivities of sediment tracers to changes in carbon cycle parameters were determined with a global ocean model. The sensitivities were combined with sediment and ice core data. The results suggest a drawdown of the sea surface temperature by 5 °C, an outgassing of the land biosphere by 430 Pg C, and a strengthening of the vertical carbon transfer by biological processes at the Last Glacial Maximum. A glacial change in marine calcium carbonate production can neither be proven nor rejected.
Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul J. Durack, Alistair J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, Claus W. Böning, Eric P. Chassignet, Enrique Curchitser, Julie Deshayes, Helge Drange, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Peter J. Gleckler, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helmuth Haak, Robert W. Hallberg, Patrick Heimbach, Helene T. Hewitt, David M. Holland, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Yoshiki Komuro, John P. Krasting, William G. Large, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Trevor J. McDougall, A. J. George Nurser, James C. Orr, Anna Pirani, Fangli Qiao, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, Anne Marie Treguier, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Petteri Uotila, Maria Valdivieso, Qiang Wang, Michael Winton, and Stephen G. Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This document defines OMIP and details a protocol both for simulating global ocean/sea-ice models and for analysing their output.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Jörg Schwinger, Nadine Goris, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Iris Kriest, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, Mehmet Ilicak, Karen M. Assmann, and Christoph Heinze
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2589–2622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2589-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2589-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present an evaluation of the ocean carbon cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model. A re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation improves surface tracer fields between versions 1 and 1.2 of the model. Focus is placed on the evaluation of newly implemented parameterisations of the biological carbon pump (i.e. the sinking of particular organic carbon). We find that the model previously underestimated the carbon transport into the deep ocean below 2000 m depth.
Ulrike Port, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 535–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, 2016
Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, Laurent Bopp, Laure Resplandy, James C. Orr, Olivier Marti, John P. Dunne, James R. Christian, Scott C. Doney, Tatiana Ilyina, Keith Lindsay, Paul R. Halloran, Christoph Heinze, Joachim Segschneider, Jerry Tjiputra, Olivier Aumont, and Anastasia Romanou
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1827–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for ocean biogeochemistry in CMIP5 models contributed to inter-model differences in modeled fields. We show that a link between spin-up duration and skill-score metrics emerges from both individual IPSL-CM5A-LR's results and an ensemble of CMIP5 models. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols constitute a source of inter-model uncertainty which would require more attention in future intercomparison exercises.
Fabio Cresto Aleina, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Tim Brücher, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 915–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the hotspot parameterization, a novel approach to upscaling methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of water table patterns generated by the Hummock–Hollow (HH) model. We show how the hotspot parameterization successfully upscales the micro-topographic controls on methane emissions for both present-day conditions and for the next century under three different scenarios.
Matthew J. Carmichael, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Malte Heinemann, Jeffrey Kiehl, Allegra LeGrande, Claire A. Loptson, Chris D. Roberts, Navjit Sagoo, Christine Shields, Paul J. Valdes, Arne Winguth, Cornelia Winguth, and Richard D. Pancost
Clim. Past, 12, 455–481, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-455-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we assess how well model-simulated precipitation rates compare to those indicated by geological data for the early Eocene, a warm interval 56–49 million years ago. Our results show that a number of models struggle to produce sufficient precipitation at high latitudes, which likely relates to cool simulated temperatures in these regions. However, calculating precipitation rates from plant fossils is highly uncertain, and further data are now required.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
F. Cresto Aleina, B. R. K. Runkle, T. Kleinen, L. Kutzbach, J. Schneider, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 5689–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a process-based model for peatland micro-topography and hydrology, the Hummock-Hollow (HH) model, which explicitly represents small-scale surface elevation changes. By coupling the HH model with a model for soil methane processes, we are able to model the effects of micro-topography on hydrology and methane emissions in a typical boreal peatland. We also identify potential biases that models without a micro-topographic representation can introduce in large-scale models.
M. Willeit and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 11, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we explore the permafrost–ice-sheet interaction using the fully coupled climate–ice-sheet model CLIMBER-2 with the addition of a newly developed permafrost module. We find that permafrost has a moderate but significant effect on ice sheet dynamics during the last glacial cycle. In particular at the Last Glacial Maximum the inclusion of permafrost leads to a 15m sea level equivalent increase in Northern Hemisphere ice volume when permafrost is included.
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
A. Robinson and M. Perrette
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1877–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1877-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1877-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a concise interface to the NetCDF library designed to simplify reading and writing tasks of up to 6-D arrays in Fortran programs.
C. Heinze, S. Meyer, N. Goris, L. Anderson, R. Steinfeldt, N. Chang, C. Le Quéré, and D. C. E. Bakker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 327–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions over the past 250 years have raised cause for concern that changes in Earth’s climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20,000 years. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon inventory will affect its ecosystems. Major future ocean carbon research challenges are discussed.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
S. Kloster, T. Brücher, V. Brovkin, and S. Wilkenskjeld
Clim. Past, 11, 781–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, 2015
U. Port, M. Claussen, and V. Brovkin
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
G. G. Laruelle, R. Lauerwald, J. Rotschi, P. A. Raymond, J. Hartmann, and P. Regnier
Biogeosciences, 12, 1447–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1447-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the atmosphere and the land-ocean aquatic continuum (LOAC) of the northeast North American coast, which consists of rivers, estuaries, and the coastal ocean. Our analysis reveals significant variations of the flux intensity both in time and space across the study area. Ice cover, snowmelt, and the intensity of the estuarine filter are identified as important control factors of the CO2 exchange along the LOAC.
R. Calov, A. Robinson, M. Perrette, and A. Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 9, 179–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Ice discharge into the ocean from outlet glaciers is an important
component of mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. Here, we present a
simple parameterization of ice discharge for coarse resolution ice
sheet models, suitable for large ensembles or long-term palaeo
simulations. This parameterization reproduces in a good approximation
the present-day ice discharge compared with estimates, and the
simulation of the present-day ice sheet elevation is considerably
improved.
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
M. Heinze and T. Ilyina
Clim. Past, 11, 63–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-63-2015, 2015
C. D. Nevison, M. Manizza, R. F. Keeling, M. Kahru, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, J. Tiputra, T. Ilyina, and B. G. Mitchell
Biogeosciences, 12, 193–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-193-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-193-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) at five surface monitoring sites are compared to those inferred from the air-sea O2 fluxes of six ocean biogeochemistry models. The simulated air-sea fluxes are translated into APO seasonal cycles using a matrix method that takes into account atmospheric transport model (ATM) uncertainty among 13 different ATMs. Net primary production (NPP), estimated from satellite ocean color data, is also compared to model output.
M. Gehlen, R. Séférian, D. O. B. Jones, T. Roy, R. Roth, J. Barry, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, C. Heinze, F. Joos, J. C. Orr, L. Resplandy, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 11, 6955–6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates potential impacts of pH reductions on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to latest IPCC scenarios.Multi-model projections of pH changes over the seafloor are analysed with reference to a critical threshold based on palaeo-oceanographic studies, contemporary observations and model results. By 2100 under the most severe IPCC CO2 scenario, pH reductions occur over ~23% of deep-sea canyons and ~8% of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as marine protected areas.
M. Heinemann, A. Timmermann, O. Elison Timm, F. Saito, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 10, 1567–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1567-2014, 2014
E. Bauer and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 10, 1333–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1333-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1333-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
F. S. E. Vamborg, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 89–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, 2014
D. Dalmonech, A. M. Foley, A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, A. D. Friend, M. Kidston, M. Willeit, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
R. Valentini, A. Arneth, A. Bombelli, S. Castaldi, R. Cazzolla Gatti, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, E. Grieco, J. Hartmann, M. Henry, R. A. Houghton, M. Jung, W. L. Kutsch, Y. Malhi, E. Mayorga, L. Merbold, G. Murray-Tortarolo, D. Papale, P. Peylin, B. Poulter, P. A. Raymond, M. Santini, S. Sitch, G. Vaglio Laurin, G. R. van der Werf, C. A. Williams, and R. J. Scholes
Biogeosciences, 11, 381–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-381-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-381-2014, 2014
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Biogeosciences, 11, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, 2014
P. Dass, C. Müller, V. Brovkin, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 409–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, 2013
L. Bopp, L. Resplandy, J. C. Orr, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, M. Gehlen, P. Halloran, C. Heinze, T. Ilyina, R. Séférian, J. Tjiputra, and M. Vichi
Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013
G. Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1367–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1367-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1367-2013, 2013
L. M. Verheijen, V. Brovkin, R. Aerts, G. Bönisch, J. H. C. Cornelissen, J. Kattge, P. B. Reich, I. J. Wright, and P. M. van Bodegom
Biogeosciences, 10, 5497–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013, 2013
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1749–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, 2013
M. Claussen, K. Selent, V. Brovkin, T. Raddatz, and V. Gayler
Biogeosciences, 10, 3593–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, 2013
G. G. Laruelle, H. H. Dürr, R. Lauerwald, J. Hartmann, C. P. Slomp, N. Goossens, and P. A. G. Regnier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2029–2051, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2029-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2029-2013, 2013
J. A. Collins, A. Govin, S. Mulitza, D. Heslop, M. Zabel, J. Hartmann, U. Röhl, and G. Wefer
Clim. Past, 9, 1181–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1181-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1181-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
R. Wanninkhof, G. -H. Park, T. Takahashi, C. Sweeney, R. Feely, Y. Nojiri, N. Gruber, S. C. Doney, G. A. McKinley, A. Lenton, C. Le Quéré, C. Heinze, J. Schwinger, H. Graven, and S. Khatiwala
Biogeosciences, 10, 1983–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
O. D. Andrews, N. L. Bindoff, P. R. Halloran, T. Ilyina, and C. Le Quéré
Biogeosciences, 10, 1799–1813, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
J. F. Tjiputra, C. Roelandt, M. Bentsen, D. M. Lawrence, T. Lorentzen, J. Schwinger, Ø. Seland, and C. Heinze
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 301–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-301-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-301-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
J. Segschneider, A. Beitsch, C. Timmreck, V. Brovkin, T. Ilyina, J. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, K. D. Six, and D. Zanchettin
Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
P. K. Patra, J. G. Canadell, R. A. Houghton, S. L. Piao, N.-H. Oh, P. Ciais, K. R. Manjunath, A. Chhabra, T. Wang, T. Bhattacharya, P. Bousquet, J. Hartman, A. Ito, E. Mayorga, Y. Niwa, P. A. Raymond, V. V. S. S. Sarma, and R. Lasco
Biogeosciences, 10, 513–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-513-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-513-2013, 2013
M. Perrette, F. Landerer, R. Riva, K. Frieler, and M. Meinshausen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections
ISOM 1.0: a fully mesoscale-resolving idealized Southern Ocean model and the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions
A computationally lightweight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazards: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1
Introducing the MESMER-M-TPv0.1.0 module: spatially explicit Earth system model emulation for monthly precipitation and temperature
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Robust handling of extremes in quantile mapping – “Murder your darlings”
A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention
An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6
Coupling the regional climate model ICON-CLM v2.6.6 to the Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 using OASIS3-MCT v4.0
A fully coupled solid-particle microphysics scheme for stratospheric aerosol injections within the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2
An improved representation of aerosol in the ECMWF IFS-COMPO 49R1 through the integration of EQSAM4Climv12 – a first attempt at simulating aerosol acidity
At-scale Model Output Statistics in mountain environments (AtsMOS v1.0)
Impact of ocean vertical-mixing parameterization on Arctic sea ice and upper-ocean properties using the NEMO-SI3 model
Bridging the gap: a new module for human water use in the Community Earth System Model version 2.2.1
A new lightning scheme in the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM5.1): implementation, evaluation, and projections of lightning and fire in future climates
Methane dynamics in the Baltic Sea: investigating concentration, flux, and isotopic composition patterns using the coupled physical–biogeochemical model BALTSEM-CH4 v1.0
Split-explicit external mode solver in the finite volume sea ice–ocean model FESOM2
Applying double cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5
The sea ice component of GC5: coupling SI3 to HadGEM3 using conductive fluxes
CICE on a C-grid: new momentum, stress, and transport schemes for CICEv6.5
HyPhAICC v1.0: a hybrid physics–AI approach for probability fields advection shown through an application to cloud cover nowcasting
CICERO Simple Climate Model (CICERO-SCM v1.1.1) – an improved simple climate model with a parameter calibration tool
Development of a plant carbon–nitrogen interface coupling framework in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model (SSiB5/TRIFFID/DayCent-SOM v1.0)
Dynamical Madden–Julian Oscillation forecasts using an ensemble subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast system of the IAP-CAS model
Implementation of a brittle sea ice rheology in an Eulerian, finite-difference, C-grid modeling framework: impact on the simulated deformation of sea ice in the Arctic
HSW-V v1.0: localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model
A 3D-Var assimilation scheme for vertical velocity with CMA-MESO v5.0
Updating the radiation infrastructure in MESSy (based on MESSy version 2.55)
An urban module coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity model to improve hydrothermal simulations in urban systems
Bayesian hierarchical model for bias-correcting climate models
Evaluation of the coupling of EMACv2.55 to the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4
Reduced floating-point precision in regional climate simulations: an ensemble-based statistical verification
TorchClim v1.0: a deep-learning plugin for climate model physics
The very-high resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP
Linking global terrestrial and ocean biogeochemistry with process-based, coupled freshwater algae–nutrient–solid dynamics in LM3-FANSY v1.0
Validating a microphysical prognostic stratospheric aerosol implementation in E3SMv2 using observations after the Mount Pinatubo eruption
Architectural Insights and Training Methodology Optimization of Pangu-Weather
Implementing detailed nucleation predictions in the Earth system model EC-Earth3.3.4: sulfuric acid–ammonia nucleation
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC_v1.0)
Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model
Evaluation of CMIP6 model simulations of PM2.5 and its components over China
Assessment of a tiling energy budget approach in a land surface model, ORCHIDEE-MICT (r8205)
Virtual Integration of Satellite and In-situ Observation Networks (VISION) v1.0: In-Situ Observations Simulator
Multivariate adjustment of drizzle bias using machine learning in European climate projections
Development and evaluation of the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE) version 1.0
A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Software sustainability of global impact models
Short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate-nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using E3SM land model (v2.1)
CARIB12: A Regional Community Earth System Model / Modular Ocean Model 6 Configuration of the Caribbean Sea
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Jingwei Xie, Xi Wang, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Jiangfeng Yu, Zipeng Yu, Junlin Wei, and Xiang Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8469–8493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose the concept of mesoscale ocean direct numerical simulation (MODNS), which should resolve the first baroclinic deformation radius and ensure the numerical dissipative effects do not directly contaminate the mesoscale motions. It can be a benchmark for testing mesoscale ocean large eddy simulation (MOLES) methods in ocean models. We build an idealized Southern Ocean model using MITgcm to generate a type of MODNS. We also illustrate the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions.
Emily Black, John Ellis, and Ross I. Maidment
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8353–8372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present General TAMSAT-ALERT, a computationally lightweight and versatile tool for generating ensemble forecasts from time series data. General TAMSAT-ALERT is capable of combining multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into probabilistic hazard assessments. In this way, it complements existing systems and enhances their utility for actionable hazard assessment.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Denica Bozhinova, Lars Bärring, Joakim Löw, Carolina Nilsson, Gustav Strandberg, Johan Södling, Johan Thuresson, Renate Wilcke, and Wei Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8173–8179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When bias adjusting climate model data using quantile mapping, one needs to prescribe what to do at the tails of the distribution, where a larger data range is likely encountered outside of the calibration period. The end result is highly dependent on the method used. We show that, to avoid discontinuities in the time series, one needs to exclude data in the calibration range to also activate the extrapolation functionality in that time period.
Philip J. Rasch, Haruki Hirasawa, Mingxuan Wu, Sarah J. Doherty, Robert Wood, Hailong Wang, Andy Jones, James Haywood, and Hansi Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7963–7994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a protocol to compare computer climate simulations to better understand a proposed strategy intended to counter warming and climate impacts from greenhouse gas increases. This slightly changes clouds in six ocean regions to reflect more sunlight and cool the Earth. Example changes in clouds and climate are shown for three climate models. Cloud changes differ between the models, but precipitation and surface temperature changes are similar when their cooling effects are made similar.
Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Duncan Watson-Parris, Gregory Elsaesser, Hugh Morrison, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Ci Song, and Daniel McCoy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7835–7853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a dataset where 45 parameters related to cloud processes in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) are perturbed. Three sets of perturbed parameter ensembles (263 members) were created: current climate, preindustrial aerosol loading and future climate with sea surface temperature increased by 4 K.
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Vera Maurer, Stefan Poll, and Irina Fast
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7815–7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The regional Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 that includes the regional climate model ICON-CLM coupled to the ocean model NEMO and the hydrological discharge model HD via the OASIS3-MCT coupler can be a useful tool for conducting long-term regional climate simulations over the EURO-CORDEX domain. The new OASIS3-MCT coupling interface implemented in ICON-CLM makes it more flexible for coupling to an external ocean model and an external hydrological discharge model.
Sandro Vattioni, Rahel Weber, Aryeh Feinberg, Andrea Stenke, John A. Dykema, Beiping Luo, Georgios A. Kelesidis, Christian A. Bruun, Timofei Sukhodolov, Frank N. Keutsch, Thomas Peter, and Gabriel Chiodo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7767–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantified impacts and efficiency of stratospheric solar climate intervention via solid particle injection. Microphysical interactions of solid particles with the sulfur cycle were interactively coupled to the heterogeneous chemistry scheme and the radiative transfer code of an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. Compared to injection of SO2 we only find a stronger cooling efficiency for solid particles when normalizing to the aerosol load but not when normalizing to the injection rate.
Samuel Rémy, Swen Metzger, Vincent Huijnen, Jason E. Williams, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7539–7567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the development of the future operational cycle 49R1 of the IFS-COMPO system, used for operational forecasts of atmospheric composition in the CAMS project, and focus on the implementation of the thermodynamical model EQSAM4Clim version 12. The implementation of EQSAM4Clim significantly improves the simulated secondary inorganic aerosol surface concentration. The new aerosol and precipitation acidity diagnostics showed good agreement against observational datasets.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7629–7643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.
Sofia Allende, Anne Marie Treguier, Camille Lique, Clément de Boyer Montégut, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Antoine Barthélemy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7445–7466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the parameters of the turbulent-kinetic-energy mixed-layer-penetration scheme in the NEMO model with regard to sea-ice-covered regions of the Arctic Ocean. This evaluation reveals the impact of these parameters on mixed-layer depth, sea surface temperature and salinity, and ocean stratification. Our findings demonstrate significant impacts on sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration, emphasizing the need for accurately representing ocean mixing to understand Arctic climate dynamics.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7365–7399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved a climate model by adding the representation of water use sectors such as domestic, industry, and agriculture. This new feature helps us understand how water is used and supplied in various areas. We tested our model from 1971 to 2010 and found that it accurately identifies areas with water scarcity. By modelling the competition between sectors when water availability is limited, the model helps estimate the intensity and extent of individual sectors' water shortages.
Cynthia Whaley, Montana Etten-Bohm, Courtney Schumacher, Ayodeji Akingunola, Vivek Arora, Jason Cole, Michael Lazare, David Plummer, Knut von Salzen, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes how lightning was added as a process in the Canadian Earth System Model in order to interactively respond to climate changes. As lightning is an important cause of global wildfires, this new model development allows for more realistic projections of how wildfires may change in the future, responding to a changing climate.
Erik Gustafsson, Bo G. Gustafsson, Martijn Hermans, Christoph Humborg, and Christian Stranne
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7157–7179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) cycling in the Baltic Proper is studied through model simulations, enabling a first estimate of key CH4 fluxes. A preliminary budget identifies benthic CH4 release as the dominant source and two main sinks: CH4 oxidation in the water (92 % of sinks) and outgassing to the atmosphere (8 % of sinks). This study addresses CH4 emissions from coastal seas and is a first step toward understanding the relative importance of open-water outgassing compared with local coastal hotspots.
Tridib Banerjee, Patrick Scholz, Sergey Danilov, Knut Klingbeil, and Dmitry Sidorenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7051–7065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose a new alternative to one of the functionalities of the sea ice model FESOM2. The alternative we propose allows the model to capture and simulate fast changes in quantities like sea surface elevation more accurately. We also demonstrate that the new alternative is faster and more adept at taking advantages of highly parallelized computing infrastructure. We therefore show that this new alternative is a great addition to the sea ice model FESOM2.
Yuwen Fan, Zhao Yang, Min-Hui Lo, Jina Hur, and Eun-Soon Im
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6929–6947, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigated agriculture in the North China Plain (NCP) has a significant impact on the local climate. To better understand this impact, we developed a specialized model specifically for the NCP region. This model allows us to simulate the double-cropping vegetation and the dynamic irrigation practices that are commonly employed in the NCP. This model shows improved performance in capturing the general crop growth, such as crop stages, biomass, crop yield, and vegetation greenness.
Ed Blockley, Emma Fiedler, Jeff Ridley, Luke Roberts, Alex West, Dan Copsey, Daniel Feltham, Tim Graham, David Livings, Clement Rousset, David Schroeder, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6799–6817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the sea ice model component of the latest Met Office coupled model configuration, which will be used as the physical basis for UK contributions to CMIP7. Documentation of science options used in the configuration are given along with a brief model evaluation. This is the first UK configuration to use NEMO’s new SI3 sea ice model. We provide details on how SI3 was adapted to work with Met Office coupling methodology and documentation of coupling processes in the model.
Jean-François Lemieux, William H. Lipscomb, Anthony Craig, David A. Bailey, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Philippe Blain, Till A. S. Rasmussen, Mats Bentsen, Frédéric Dupont, David Hebert, and Richard Allard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6703–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the latest version of the CICE model. It solves equations that describe the dynamics and the growth and melt of sea ice. To do so, the domain is divided into grid cells and variables are positioned at specific locations in the cells. A new implementation (C-grid) is presented, with the velocity located on cell edges. Compared to the previous B-grid, the C-grid allows for a natural coupling with some oceanic and atmospheric models. It also allows for ice transport in narrow channels.
Rachid El Montassir, Olivier Pannekoucke, and Corentin Lapeyre
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6657–6681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a novel approach that combines physics and artificial intelligence (AI) for improved cloud cover forecasting. This approach outperforms traditional deep learning (DL) methods in producing realistic and physically consistent results while requiring less training data. This architecture provides a promising solution to overcome the limitations of classical AI methods and contributes to open up new possibilities for combining physical knowledge with deep learning models.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Zheng Xiang, Yongkang Xue, Weidong Guo, Melannie D. Hartman, Ye Liu, and William J. Parton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6437–6464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A process-based plant carbon (C)–nitrogen (N) interface coupling framework has been developed which mainly focuses on plant resistance and N-limitation effects on photosynthesis, plant respiration, and plant phenology. A dynamic C / N ratio is introduced to represent plant resistance and self-adjustment. The framework has been implemented in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model, and testing results show a general improvement in simulating plant properties with this framework.
Yangke Liu, Qing Bao, Bian He, Xiaofei Wu, Jing Yang, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Tao Zhu, Siyuan Zhou, Yao Tang, Ankang Qu, Yalan Fan, Anling Liu, Dandan Chen, Zhaoming Luo, Xing Hu, and Tongwen Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6249–6275, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We give an overview of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics–Chinese Academy of Sciences subseasonal-to-seasonal ensemble forecasting system and Madden–Julian Oscillation forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its benefits but also biases, i.e., underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude, and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We provide a reason for these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.
Laurent Brodeau, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, and Véronique Dansereau
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6051–6082, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new brittle sea ice rheology, BBM, has been implemented into the sea ice component of NEMO. We describe how a new spatial discretization framework was introduced to achieve this. A set of idealized and realistic ocean and sea ice simulations of the Arctic have been performed using BBM and the standard viscous–plastic rheology of NEMO. When compared to satellite data, our simulations show that our implementation of BBM leads to a fairly good representation of sea ice deformations.
Joseph P. Hollowed, Christiane Jablonowski, Hunter Y. Brown, Benjamin R. Hillman, Diana L. Bull, and Joseph L. Hart
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5913–5938, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions deposit material in the upper atmosphere, which is capable of altering temperature and wind patterns of Earth's atmosphere for subsequent years. This research describes a new method of simulating these effects in an idealized, efficient atmospheric model. A volcanic eruption of sulfur dioxide is described with a simplified set of physical rules, which eventually cools the planetary surface. This model has been designed as a test bed for climate attribution studies.
Hong Li, Yi Yang, Jian Sun, Yuan Jiang, Ruhui Gan, and Qian Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5883–5896, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical atmospheric motions play a vital role in convective-scale precipitation forecasts by connecting atmospheric dynamics with cloud development. A three-dimensional variational vertical velocity assimilation scheme is developed within the high-resolution CMA-MESO model, utilizing the adiabatic Richardson equation as the observation operator. A 10 d continuous run and an individual case study demonstrate improved forecasts, confirming the scheme's effectiveness.
Matthias Nützel, Laura Stecher, Patrick Jöckel, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Michael Ponater, Phoebe Graf, and Markus Kunze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5821–5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We extended the infrastructure of our modelling system to enable the use of an additional radiation scheme. After calibrating the model setups to the old and the new radiation scheme, we find that the simulation with the new scheme shows considerable improvements, e.g. concerning the cold-point temperature and stratospheric water vapour. Furthermore, perturbations of radiative fluxes associated with greenhouse gas changes, e.g. of methane, tend to be improved when the new scheme is employed.
Yibing Wang, Xianhong Xie, Bowen Zhu, Arken Tursun, Fuxiao Jiang, Yao Liu, Dawei Peng, and Buyun Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5803–5819, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Urban expansion intensifies challenges like urban heat and urban dry islands. To address this, we developed an urban module, VIC-urban, in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Tested in Beijing, VIC-urban accurately simulated turbulent heat fluxes, runoff, and land surface temperature. We provide a reliable tool for large-scale simulations considering urban environment and a systematic urban modelling framework within VIC, offering crucial insights for urban planners and designers.
Jeremy Carter, Erick A. Chacón-Montalván, and Amber Leeson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5733–5757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are essential tools in the study of climate change and its wide-ranging impacts on life on Earth. However, the output is often afflicted with some bias. In this paper, a novel model is developed to predict and correct bias in the output of climate models. The model captures uncertainty in the correction and explicitly models underlying spatial correlation between points. These features are of key importance for climate change impact assessments and resulting decision-making.
Anna Martin, Veronika Gayler, Benedikt Steil, Klaus Klingmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5705–5732, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study evaluates the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4 as a replacement for the simplified submodel SURFACE in EMAC. JSBACH mitigates earlier problems of soil dryness, which are critical for vegetation modelling. When analysed using different datasets, the coupled model shows strong correlations of key variables, such as land surface temperature, surface albedo and radiation flux. The versatility of the model increases significantly, while the overall performance does not degrade.
Hugo Banderier, Christian Zeman, David Leutwyler, Stefan Rüdisühli, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5573–5586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5573-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the effects of reduced-precision arithmetic in a state-of-the-art regional climate model by studying the results of 10-year-long simulations. After this time, the results of the reduced precision and the standard implementation are hardly different. This should encourage the use of reduced precision in climate models to exploit the speedup and memory savings it brings. The methodology used in this work can help researchers verify reduced-precision implementations of their model.
David Fuchs, Steven C. Sherwood, Abhnil Prasad, Kirill Trapeznikov, and Jim Gimlett
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5459–5475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) of unresolved processes offers many new possibilities for improving weather and climate models, but integrating ML into the models has been an engineering challenge, and there are performance issues. We present a new software plugin for this integration, TorchClim, that is scalable and flexible and thereby allows a new level of experimentation with the ML approach. We also provide guidance on ML training and demonstrate a skillful hybrid ML atmosphere model.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-119, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10-15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100-km and a 25-km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased in the resolution.
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5191–5224, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling global freshwater solid and nutrient loads, in both magnitude and form, is imperative for understanding emerging eutrophication problems. Such efforts, however, have been challenged by the difficulty of balancing details of freshwater biogeochemical processes with limited knowledge, input, and validation datasets. Here we develop a global freshwater model that resolves intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics and provide performance assessment against measurement-based estimates.
Hunter York Brown, Benjamin Wagman, Diana Bull, Kara Peterson, Benjamin Hillman, Xiaohong Liu, Ziming Ke, and Lin Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5087–5121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Explosive volcanic eruptions lead to long-lived, microscopic particles in the upper atmosphere which act to cool the Earth's surface by reflecting the Sun's light back to space. We include and test this process in a global climate model, E3SM. E3SM is tested against satellite and balloon observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, showing that with these particles in the model we reasonably recreate Pinatubo and its global effects. We also explore how particle size leads to these effects.
Deifilia Aurora To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1714, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers three-dimensional atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20–30%. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases accessibility of training and working with the model.
Carl Svenhag, Moa K. Sporre, Tinja Olenius, Daniel Yazgi, Sara M. Blichner, Lars P. Nieradzik, and Pontus Roldin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research shows the importance of modeling new particle formation (NPF) and growth of particles in the atmosphere on a global scale, as they influence the outcomes of clouds and our climate. With the global model EC-Earth3 we show that using a new method for NPF modeling, which includes new detailed processes with NH3 and H2SO4, significantly impacts the number of particles in the air and clouds and changes the radiation balance of the same magnitude as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions.
Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Xili Wang, Ying-Ping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Zhixuan Guo, Chen Wang, Wei Zhuang, Fengchang Wu, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4871–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of biochar (BC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land carbon models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation. Our study develops a BC model that incorporates our current understanding of BC effects on SOC based on a soil carbon model (MIMICS). The BC model can reproduce the SOC changes after adding BC, providing a useful tool to couple dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of BC application for CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Maria Rosa Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-73, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Observational data and modelling capabilities are expanding in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources to be used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing and handling a large amount of data. This manuscript describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the ‘VISION toolkit’, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, George Zittis, Anna Tzyrkalli, Pantelis Georgiades, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4689–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the important issue of the drizzle bias effect in regional climate models, described by an over-prediction of the number of rainy days while underestimating associated precipitation amounts. For this purpose, two distinct methodologies are applied and rigorously evaluated. These results are encouraging for using the multivariate machine learning method random forest to increase the accuracy of climate models concerning the projection of the number of wet days.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Seung H. Baek, Paul A. Ullrich, Bo Dong, and Jiwoo Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1456, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant covariances during convective and frontal precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected covariances during convective precipitation. However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. This suggests statistical downscaling may not fully resolve non-stationary hydrologic processes as compared to dynamical downscaling.
Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Daniel S. Katz, and Robert Reinecke
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-97, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Research software is crucial for scientific progress but is often developed by scientists with limited training, time, and funding, leading to software that is hard to understand, (re)use, modify, and maintain. Our study across 10 research sectors highlights strengths in version control, open-source licensing, and documentation while emphasizing the need for containerization and code quality. Recommendations include workshops, code quality metrics, funding, and adherence to FAIR standards.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-70, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Hurricanes may worsen the water quality in the lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate-nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, but less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Giovanni G. Seijo-Ellis, Donata Giglio, Gustavo M. Marques, and Frank O. Bryan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1378, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A CESM/MOM6 regional configuration of the Caribbean Sea was developed as a response to the rising need of high-resolution models for climate impact studies. The configuration is validated for the period of 2000–2020 and improves significant errors in a low resolution model. Oceanic properties are well represented. Patterns of freshwater associated with the Amazon river are well captured and the mean flows across the multiple passages in the Caribbean Sea agree with observations.
Cited articles
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J., Takahashi, K.,
and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and
hysteresis of ice-sheet volume., Nature, 500, 190–193,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374, 2013. a
Albani, S., Mahowald, N. M., Murphy, L. N., Raiswell, R., Moore, J. K.,
Anderson, R. F., McGee, D., Bradtmiller, L. I., Delmonte, B., Hesse, P. P.,
and Mayewski, P. A.: Paleodust variability since the Last Glacial Maximum
and implications for iron inputs to the ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
43, 3944–3954, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067911, 2016. a
Amiotte Suchet, P. and Probst, J. L.: A global model for present-day
atmospheric/soil CO2 consumption by chemical erosion of continental rocks
(GEM-CO2), Tellus B, 47, 273–280,
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v47i1-2.16047, 1995. a
Amiotte Suchet, P., Probst, J.-L., and Ludwig, W.: Worldwide distribution of
continental rock lithology: Implications for the atmospheric/soil CO2 uptake
by continental weathering and alkalinity river transport to the oceans,
Global Biogeochem. Cy., 17, 1038, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GB001891,
2003. a
Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A., and Marland, G.: Annual
Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Global Stable Carbon Isotopic Signature.
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. [data set],
https://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/ffe.db1013.2017, 2017. a
Archer, D. E. and Johnson, K.: A model of the iron cycle in the ocean, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 14, 269–279, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GB900053, 2000. a
Arora, V. K., Boer, G. J., Friedlingstein, P., Eby, M., Jones, C. D.,
Christian, J. R., Bonan, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Hajima, T.,
Ilyina, T., Lindsay, K., Tjiputra, J. F., and Wu, T.: Carbon-concentration
and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 earth system models, J.
Climate, 26, 5289–5314, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00494.1, 2013. a
Arora, V. K., Katavouta, A., Williams, R. G., Jones, C. D., Brovkin, V., Friedlingstein, P., Schwinger, J., Bopp, L., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Chamberlain, M. A., Christian, J. R., Delire, C., Fisher, R. A., Hajima, T., Ilyina, T., Joetzjer, E., Kawamiya, M., Koven, C. D., Krasting, J. P., Law, R. M., Lawrence, D. M., Lenton, A., Lindsay, K., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Séférian, R., Tachiiri, K., Tjiputra, J. F., Wiltshire, A., Wu, T., and Ziehn, T.: Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Augustin, L., Barbante, C., Barnes, P. R. F., Barnola, J. M., Bigler, M.,
Castellano, E., Cattani, O., Chappellaz, J., Dahl-Jensen, D., Delmonte, B.,
Dreyfus, G., Durand, G., Falourd, S., Fischer, H., Flückiger, J.,
Hansson, M. E., Huybrechts, P., Jugie, G., Johnsen, S. J., Jouzel, J.,
Kaufmann, P., Kipfstuhl, J., Lambert, F., Lipenkov, V. Y., Littot, G. C.,
Longinelli, A., Lorrain, R., Maggi, V., Masson-Delmotte, V., Miller, H.,
Mulvaney, R., Oerlemans, J., Oerter, H., Orombelli, G., Parrenin, F., Peel,
D. a., Petit, J.-R., Raynaud, D., Ritz, C., Ruth, U., Schwander, J.,
Siegenthaler, U., Souchez, R., Stauffer, B., Steffensen, J. P., Stenni, B.,
Stocker, T. F., Tabacco, I. E., Udisti, R., Van De Wal, R. S. W., Van Den
Broeke, M., Weiss, J., Wilhelms, F., Winther, J.-G., Wolff, E. W., and
Zucchelli, M.: Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core., Nature,
429, 623–628, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02599, 2004. a
Aumont, O., Orr, J. C., Monfray, P., Madec, G., and Maier-Reimer, E.: Nutrient
trapping in the equatorial Pacific: The ocean circulation solution, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 13, 351–369, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998GB900012, 1999. a
Aumont, O., Ethé, C., Tagliabue, A., Bopp, L., and Gehlen, M.: PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2465–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, 2015. a
Batjes, N.: Harmonized soil property values for broad-scale modelling
(WISE30sec) with estimates of global soil carbon stocks, Geoderma, 269,
61–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2016.01.034,
2016. a
Battaglia, G., Steinacher, M., and Joos, F.: A probabilistic assessment of calcium carbonate export and dissolution in the modern ocean, Biogeosciences, 13, 2823–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2823-2016, 2016. a
Beer, C., Reichstein, M., Tomelleri, E., Ciais, P., Jung, M., Carvalhais, N.,
Rodenbeck, C., Arain, M. A., Baldocchi, D., Bonan, G. B., Bondeau, A.,
Cescatti, A., Lasslop, G., Lindroth, A., Lomas, M., Luyssaert, S., Margolis,
H., Oleson, K. W., Roupsard, O., Veenendaal, E., Viovy, N., Williams, C.,
Woodward, F. I., and Papale, D.: Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake:
Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate, Science, 329, 834–838,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184984,
2010. a
Börker, J., Hartmann, J., Amann, T., Romero-Mujalli, G., Moosdorf, N.,
and Jenkins, C.: Chemical Weathering of Loess and Its Contribution to Global
Alkalinity Fluxes to the Coastal Zone During the Last Glacial Maximum,
Mid-Holocene, and Present, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 21, e2020GC008922,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GC008922, 2020. a, b, c
Bouttes, N., Roche, D. M., Mariotti, V., and Bopp, L.: Including an ocean carbon cycle model into iLOVECLIM (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1563–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1563-2015, 2015. a
Brovkin, V., Bendtsen, J., Claussen, M., Ganopolski, A., Kubatzki, C.,
Petoukhov, V., and Andreev, A.: Carbon cycle, vegetation, and climate
dynamics in the Holocene: Experiments with the CLIMBER-2 model, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 1139, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GB001662, 2002. a
Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Archer, D., and Rahmstorf, S.: Lowering of
glacial atmospheric CO2 in response to changes in oceanic circulation and
marine biogeochemistry, Paleoceanography, 22, PA4202,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006PA001380, 2007. a
Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Archer, D., and Munhoven, G.: Glacial CO2 cycle as a succession of key physical and biogeochemical processes, Clim. Past, 8, 251–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-251-2012, 2012. a
Brown, J., Ferrians, O., Heginbottom, J. A., and Melnikov, E.: Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions, National Snow and Ice Data Center [data set], https://nsidc.org/data/ggd318/versions/2 (last access: 20 January 2022), 1998. a
Buitenhuis, E. T., Suntharalingam, P., and Le Quéré, C.: Constraints on global oceanic emissions of N2O from observations and models, Biogeosciences, 15, 2161–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2161-2018, 2018. a
Burton, C., Betts, R., Cardoso, M., Feldpausch, T. R., Harper, A., Jones, C. D., Kelley, D. I., Robertson, E., and Wiltshire, A.: Representation of fire, land-use change and vegetation dynamics in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator vn4.9 (JULES), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, 2019. a
Cabré, A., Marinov, I., Bernardello, R., and Bianchi, D.: Oxygen minimum zones in the tropical Pacific across CMIP5 models: mean state differences and climate change trends, Biogeosciences, 12, 5429–5454, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5429-2015, 2015. a
Cao, L., Eby, M., Ridgwell, A., Caldeira, K., Archer, D., Ishida, A., Joos, F., Matsumoto, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Mouchet, A., Orr, J. C., Plattner, G.-K., Schlitzer, R., Tokos, K., Totterdell, I., Tschumi, T., Yamanaka, Y., and Yool, A.: The role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, Biogeosciences, 6, 375–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-375-2009, 2009. a
Carr, M.-E., Friedrichs, M. A., Schmeltz, M., Noguchi Aita, M., Antoine, D.,
Arrigo, K. R., Asanuma, I., Aumont, O., Barber, R., Behrenfeld, M., Bidigare,
R., Buitenhuis, E. T., Campbell, J., Ciotti, A., Dierssen, H., Dowell, M.,
Dunne, J., Esaias, W., Gentili, B., Gregg, W., Groom, S., Hoepffner, N.,
Ishizaka, J., Kameda, T., Le Quéré, C., Lohrenz, S., Marra, J.,
Mélin, F., Moore, K., Morel, A., Reddy, T. E., Ryan, J., Scardi, M.,
Smyth, T., Turpie, K., Tilstone, G., Waters, K., and Yamanaka, Y.: A
comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean
color, Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 53,
741–770, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2006.01.028,
2006. a
Cartapanis, O., Galbraith, E. D., Bianchi, D., and Jaccard, S. L.: Carbon burial in deep-sea sediment and implications for oceanic inventories of carbon and alkalinity over the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 14, 1819–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1819-2018, 2018. a, b
Carvalhais, N., Forkel, M., Khomik, M., Bellarby, J., Jung, M., Migliavacca,
M., Mu, M., Saatchi, S., Santoro, M., Thurner, M., Weber, U., Ahrens, B.,
Beer, C., Cescatti, A., Randerson, J. T., and Reichstein, M.: Global
covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems,
Nature, 514, 213–217, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13731, 2014. a, b, c
Chen, F. and Zhang, Y.: On the coupling strength between the land surface and
the atmosphere: From viewpoint of surface exchange coefficients, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 36, L10404, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037980, 2009. a
Collatz, G., Ball, J., Grivet, C., and Berry, J. A.: Physiological and
environmental regulation of stomatal conductance, photosynthesis and
transpiration: a model that includes a laminar boundary layer, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 54, 107–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(91)90002-8, 1991. a
Crichton, K. A., Wilson, J. D., Ridgwell, A., and Pearson, P. N.: Calibration of temperature-dependent ocean microbial processes in the cGENIE.muffin (v0.9.13) Earth system model, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 125–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-125-2021, 2021. a
Denman, K. L., Brasseur, G., Chidthaisong, A., Ciais, P., Cox, P. M.,
Dickinson, R. E., Hauglustaine, D., Heinze, C., Holland, E., Jacob, D.,
Lohmann, U., Ramachandran, S., da Silva Dias, P. L., Wofsy, S. C., and
Zhang, X.: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and
Biogeochemistry, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S.,
Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M. M. B., Jr., H.
L. M., and Chen, Z., chap. 7, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge (UK), 499–587,
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter7-1.pdf (last access: 6 September 2022),
2007. a
Derry, L. A. and France-Lanord, C.: Neogene growth of the sedimentary organic
carbon reservoir, Paleoceanography, 11, 267–275, https://doi.org/10.1029/95PA03839, 1996. a
Dietze, H. and Loeptien, U.: Revisiting “nutrient trapping” in global coupled
biogeochemical ocean circulation models, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27,
265–284, https://doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20029, 2013. a
Dunne, J. P., Sarmiento, J. L., and Gnanadesikan, A.: A synthesis of global
particle export from the surface ocean and cycling through the ocean interior
and on the seafloor, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB4006,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002907, 2007. a, b, c
Dutay, J.-C., Bullister, J., Doney, S., Orr, J., Najjar, R., Caldeira, K.,
Campin, J.-M., Drange, H., Follows, M., Gao, Y., Gruber, N., Hecht, M.,
Ishida, A., Joos, F., Lindsay, K., Madec, G., Maier-Reimer, E., Marschall,
J., Matear, R., Monfray, P., Mouchet, A., Plattner, G.-K., Sarmiento, J.,
Schlitzer, R., Slater, R., Totterdell, I., Weirig, M.-F., Yamanaka, Y., and
Yool, A.: Evaluation of ocean model ventilation with CFC-11: comparison of
13 global ocean models, Ocean Model., 4, 89–120,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1463-5003(01)00013-0,
2002. a, b
Eby, M., Zickfeld, K., Montenegro, A., Archer, D., Meissner, K. J., and Weaver,
A. J.: Lifetime of anthropogenic climate change: Millennial time scales of
potential CO2 and surface temperature perturbations, J. Climate, 22,
2501–2511, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2554.1, 2009. a
Eggleston, S., Schmitt, J., Bereiter, B., Schneider, R., and Fischer, H.:
Evolution of the stable carbon isotope composition of atmospheric CO2 over
the last glacial cycle, Paleoceanography, 31, 434–452,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015PA002874, 2016. a
Eide, M., Olsen, A., Ninnemann, U. S., and Johannessen, T.: A global ocean
climatology of preindustrial and modern ocean δ13C, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 31, 515–534, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005473, 2017. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fan, N., Koirala, S., Reichstein, M., Thurner, M., Avitabile, V., Santoro, M., Ahrens, B., Weber, U., and Carvalhais, N.: Apparent ecosystem carbon turnover time: uncertainties and robust features, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2517–2536, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2517-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f
Farquhar, G. D., von Caemmerer, S., and Berry, J. A.: A biochemical model of
photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species, Planta, 149,
78–90, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00386231, 1980. a
Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V.,
Cadule, P., Doney, S., Eby, M., Fung, I., Bala, G., John, J., Jones, C.,
Joos, F., Kato, T., Kawamiya, M., Knorr, W., Lindsay, K., Matthews, H. D.,
Raddatz, T., Rayner, P., Reick, C., Roeckner, E., Schnitzler, K.-G., Schnur,
R., Strassmann, K., Weaver, A. J., Yoshikawa, C., and Zeng, N.:
Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model
Intercomparison, J. Climate, 19, 3337–3353,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3800.1, 2006. a, b
Friedlingstein, P., Meinshausen, M., Arora, V. K., Jones, C. D., Anav, A.,
Liddicoat, S. K., and Knutti, R.: Uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections
due to carbon cycle feedbacks, J. Climate, 27, 511–526,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00579.1, 2014. a
Friedlingstein, P., Jones, M. W., O'Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., Bakker, D. C. E., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Alin, S. R., Anthoni, P., Bates, N. R., Becker, M., Bellouin, N., Bopp, L., Chau, T. T. T., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Cronin, M., Currie, K. I., Decharme, B., Djeutchouang, L. M., Dou, X., Evans, W., Feely, R. A., Feng, L., Gasser, T., Gilfillan, D., Gkritzalis, T., Grassi, G., Gregor, L., Gruber, N., Gürses, Ö., Harris, I., Houghton, R. A., Hurtt, G. C., Iida, Y., Ilyina, T., Luijkx, I. T., Jain, A., Jones, S. D., Kato, E., Kennedy, D., Klein Goldewijk, K., Knauer, J., Korsbakken, J. I., Körtzinger, A., Landschützer, P., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Lienert, S., Liu, J., Marland, G., McGuire, P. C., Melton, J. R., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S.-I., Niwa, Y., Ono, T., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Resplandy, L., Robertson, E., Rödenbeck, C., Rosan, T. M., Schwinger, J., Schwingshackl, C., Séférian, R., Sutton, A. J., Sweeney, C., Tanhua, T., Tans, P. P., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Tubiello, F., van der Werf, G. R., Vuichard, N., Wada, C., Wanninkhof, R., Watson, A. J., Willis, D., Wiltshire, A. J., Yuan, W., Yue, C., Yue, X., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, J.: Global Carbon Budget 2021, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022. a, b, c
Gaillardet, J., Dupré, B., Louvat, P., and Allègre, C.: Global
silicate weathering and CO2 consumption rates deduced from the chemistry of
large rivers, Chem. Geol., 159, 3–30,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0009-2541(99)00031-5,
1999. a
Ganopolski, A. and Brovkin, V.: Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017. a
Ganopolski, A. and Calov, R.: The role of orbital forcing, carbon dioxide and regolith in 100 kyr glacial cycles, Clim. Past, 7, 1415–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1415-2011, 2011. a
Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Mishonov, A. V., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, O. K., Reagan, J. R., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2013. Vol. 3: Dissolved
Oxygen, Apparent Oxygen Utilization, and Oxygen Saturation, edited by: Levitus, S., Technical Editor: Mishonov, A., NOAA Atlas NESDIS 75, 27 pp. https://doi.org/10.7289/V5XG9P2W, 2013. a, b
Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., Reagan, J. R., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2013. Vol. 4: Dissolved Inorganic Nutrients
(phosphate, nitrate, silicate), edited by: Levitus, S., Technical Editor: Mishonov, A., NOAA Atlas NESDIS
76, 25 pp., https://doi.org/10.7289/V5J67DWD, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Gasser, T., Crepin, L., Quilcaille, Y., Houghton, R. A., Ciais, P., and Obersteiner, M.: Historical CO2 emissions from land use and land cover change and their uncertainty, Biogeosciences, 17, 4075–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020, 2020. a
Gehlen, M., Bopp, L., Emprin, N., Aumont, O., Heinze, C., and Ragueneau, O.: Reconciling surface ocean productivity, export fluxes and sediment composition in a global biogeochemical ocean model, Biogeosciences, 3, 521–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-3-521-2006, 2006. a
Ginoux, P., Chin, M., Tegen, I., Prospero, J. M., Holben, B., Dubovik, O., and
Lin, S. J.: Sources and distributions of dust aerosols simulated with the
GOCART model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106,
20255–20273, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD000053, 2001. a
Goosse, H., Brovkin, V., Fichefet, T., Haarsma, R., Huybrechts, P., Jongma, J., Mouchet, A., Selten, F., Barriat, P.-Y., Campin, J.-M., Deleersnijder, E., Driesschaert, E., Goelzer, H., Janssens, I., Loutre, M.-F., Morales Maqueda, M. A., Opsteegh, T., Mathieu, P.-P., Munhoven, G., Pettersson, E. J., Renssen, H., Roche, D. M., Schaeffer, M., Tartinville, B., Timmermann, A., and Weber, S. L.: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-603-2010, 2010. a
Großkopf, T., Mohr, W., Baustian, T., Schunck, H., Gill, D., Kuypers, M.
M. M., Lavik, G., Schmitz, R. A., Wallace, D. W. R., and LaRoche, J.:
Doubling of marine dinitrogen-fixation rates based on direct measurements,
Nature, 488, 361–364, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11338, 2012. a
Gruber, N., Gloor, M., Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E., Doney, S. C., Dutkiewicz,
S., Follows, M. J., Gerber, M., Jacobson, A. R., Joos, F., Lindsay, K.,
Menemenlis, D., Mouchet, A., Müller, S. A., Sarmiento, J. L., and
Takahashi, T.: Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2,
Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB1005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003349, 2009. a
Gulev, S., Thorne, P., Ahn, J., Dentener, F., Domingues, C., Gerland, S., Gong,
D., Kaufman, D., Nnamchi, H., Quaas, J., Rivera, J., Sathyendranath, S.,
Smith, S., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., and Vose, R.: Chapter 2: Changing
state of the climate system, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V.,
Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N.,
Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E.,
Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and
Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA, 287–422, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.004, 2021. a
Hartmann, J.: Bicarbonate-fluxes and CO2-consumption by chemical weathering on
the Japanese Archipelago – Application of a multi-lithological model
framework, Chem. Geol., 265, 237–271,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2009.03.024, 2009. a, b
Hartmann, J. and Moosdorf, N.: The new global lithological map database GLiM:
A representation of rock properties at the Earth surface, Geochem.
Geophy. Geosy., 13, Q12004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GC004370, 2012. a
Hartmann, J., Moosdorf, N., Lauerwald, R., Hinderer, M., and West, A. J.:
Global chemical weathering and associated P-release – the role of lithology,
temperature and soil properties, Chem. Geol., 363, 145–163,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2013.10.025, 2014. a, b
Hauck, J., Völker, C., Wang, T., Hoppema, M., Losch, M., and
Wolf-Gladrow, D. A.: Seasonally different carbon flux changes in the
Southern Ocean in response to the southern annular mode, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 1236–1245, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GB004600, 2013. a
Haxeltine, A. and Prentice, I. C.: A General Model for the Light-Use
Efficiency of Primary Production, Funct. Ecol., 10, 551–561, https://doi.org/10.2307/2390165,
1996. a
Hayes, C. T., Costa, K. M., Anderson, R. F., Calvo, E., Chase, Z., Demina,
L. L., Dutay, J. C., German, C. R., Heimbürger-Boavida, L. E., Jaccard,
S. L., Jacobel, A., Kohfeld, K. E., Kravchishina, M. D., Lippold, J., Mekik,
F., Missiaen, L., Pavia, F. J., Paytan, A., Pedrosa-Pamies, R., Petrova,
M. V., Rahman, S., Robinson, L. F., Roy-Barman, M., Sanchez-Vidal, A.,
Shiller, A., Tagliabue, A., Tessin, A. C., van Hulten, M., and Zhang, J.:
Global Ocean Sediment Composition and Burial Flux in the Deep Sea, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 35, e2020GB006769, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006769, 2021. a
Heinemann, M., Segschneider, J., and Schneider, B.: CO2 drawdown due to particle ballasting by glacial aeolian dust: an estimate based on the ocean carbon cycle model MPIOM/HAMOCC version 1.6.2p3, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1869-2019, 2019. a, b
Heinze, C., Maier-Reimer, E., Winguth, A. M. E., and Archer, D.: A global
oceanic sediment model for long-term climate studies, Global Biogeochem.
Cy., 13, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GB02812, 1999. a, b
Hoffman, F. M., Randerson, J. T., Arora, V. K., Bao, Q., Cadule, P., Ji, D.,
Jones, C. D., Kawamiya, M., Khatiwala, S., Lindsay, K., Obata, A.,
Shevliakova, E., Six, K. D., Tjiputra, J. F., Volodin, E. M., and Wu, T.:
Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in
Earth System Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 119,
141–162, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JG002381,
2014. a
Hopcroft, P. O., Valdes, P. J., Woodward, S., and Joshi, M. M.: Last glacial
maximum radiative forcing from mineral dust aerosols in an Earth system
model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 8186–8205,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023742, 2015. a
Hopcroft, P. O., Valdes, P. J., O'Connor, F. M., Kaplan, J. O., and Beerling,
D. J.: Understanding the glacial methane cycle, Nat. Commun., 8, 14383,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14383, 2017. a
Hugelius, G., Strauss, J., Zubrzycki, S., Harden, J. W., Schuur, E. A. G., Ping, C.-L., Schirrmeister, L., Grosse, G., Michaelson, G. J., Koven, C. D., O'Donnell, J. A., Elberling, B., Mishra, U., Camill, P., Yu, Z., Palmtag, J., and Kuhry, P.: Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps, Biogeosciences, 11, 6573–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, 2014. a
Huneeus, N., Schulz, M., Balkanski, Y., Griesfeller, J., Prospero, J., Kinne, S., Bauer, S., Boucher, O., Chin, M., Dentener, F., Diehl, T., Easter, R., Fillmore, D., Ghan, S., Ginoux, P., Grini, A., Horowitz, L., Koch, D., Krol, M. C., Landing, W., Liu, X., Mahowald, N., Miller, R., Morcrette, J.-J., Myhre, G., Penner, J., Perlwitz, J., Stier, P., Takemura, T., and Zender, C. S.: Global dust model intercomparison in AeroCom phase I, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 7781–7816, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-7781-2011, 2011. a
Ilyina, T., Six, K. D., Segschneider, J., Maier-Reimer, E., Li, H., and
Núñez-Riboni, I.: Global ocean biogeochemistry model HAMOCC:
Model architecture and performance as component of the MPI-Earth system model
in different CMIP5 experimental realizations, J. Adv.
Model. Earth Sy., 5, 287–315, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012MS000178, 2013. a, b, c, d
Ito, A.: A historical meta-analysis of global terrestrial net primary
productivity: Are estimates converging?, Glob. Change Biol., 17,
3161–3175, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02450.x, 2011. a
Jacobson, A. R., Fletcher, S. E., Gruber, N., Sarmiento, J. L., and Gloor, M.:
A joint atmosphere-ocean inversion for surface fluxes of carbon dioxide: 1.
Methods and global-scale fluxes, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB1019,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002556, 2007. a
Johnson, K. S. and Bif, M. B.: Constraint on net primary productivity of the
global ocean by Argo oxygen measurements, Nat. Geosci., 14, 769–774,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00807-z, 2021. a
Jones, C. D., Frölicher, T. L., Koven, C., MacDougall, A. H., Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Rogelj, J., Tokarska, K. B., Gillett, N. P., Ilyina, T., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, N., Séférian, R., Eby, M., and Burger, F. A.: The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019. a
Jung, M., Reichstein, M., Margolis, H. a., Cescatti, A., Richardson, A. D.,
Arain, M. A., Arneth, A., Bernhofer, C., Bonal, D., Chen, J., Gianelle, D.,
Gobron, N., Kiely, G., Kutsch, W., Lasslop, G., Law, B. E., Lindroth, A.,
Merbold, L., Montagnani, L., Moors, E. J., Papale, D., Sottocornola, M.,
Vaccari, F., and Williams, C.: Global patterns of land-atmosphere fluxes of
carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance,
satellite, and meteorological observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 116, G00J07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JG001566, 2011. a
Karl, D., Michaels, A., Bergman, B., Capone, D., Carpenter, E., Letelier, R.,
Lipschultz, F., Paerl, H., Sigman, D., and Stal, L.: Dinitrogen fixation in
the world's oceans, Biogeochemistry, 57, 47–98,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015798105851, 2002. a
Key, R. M., Kozyr, A., Sabine, C. L., Lee, K., Wanninkhof, R., Bullister,
J. L., Feely, R. A., Millero, F. J., Mordy, C., and Peng, T. H.: A global
ocean carbon climatology: Results from Global Data Analysis Project
(GLODAP), Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB4031,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002247, 2004. a, b
Kleinen, T. and Brovkin, V.: Pathway-dependent fate of permafrost region
carbon, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 094001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad824,
2018. a
Kleinen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., and Brovkin, V.: Terrestrial methane emissions from the Last Glacial Maximum to the preindustrial period, Clim. Past, 16, 575–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Köhler, P., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Schmitt, J., Stocker, T. F., and Fischer, H.: A 156 kyr smoothed history of the atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O and their radiative forcing, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 363–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-363-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., Subin, Z. M., Tang, J. Y., Torn, M. S., Collins, W. D., Bonan, G. B., Lawrence, D. M., and Swenson, S. C.: The effect of vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry and alternate soil C and N models on C dynamics of CLM4, Biogeosciences, 10, 7109–7131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013, 2013. a
Kriest, I. and Evans, G. T.: A vertically resolved model for phytoplankton
aggregation, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 109, 453–469,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02708333, 2000. a
Kurahashi-Nakamura, T., Paul, A., Merkel, U., and Schulz, M.: Glacial state of the global carbon cycle: time-slice simulations for the last glacial maximum with an Earth-system model, Clim. Past, 18, 1997–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1997-2022, 2022. a
Lambert, F., Tagliabue, A., Shaffer, G., Lamy, F., Winckler, G., Farias, L.,
Gallardo, L., and De Pol-Holz, R.: Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in
Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
42, 6014–6023, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064250, 2015. a
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C.: Decadal variations and
trends of the global ocean carbon sink, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30,
1396–1417, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359, 2016. a, b
Laufkötter, C., John, J. G., Stock, C. A., and Dunne, J. P.: Temperature
and oxygen dependence of the remineralization of organic matter, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 31, 1038–1050, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005643, 2017. a
Lauvset, S. K., Key, R. M., Olsen, A., van Heuven, S., Velo, A., Lin, X., Schirnick, C., Kozyr, A., Tanhua, T., Hoppema, M., Jutterström, S., Steinfeldt, R., Jeansson, E., Ishii, M., Perez, F. F., Suzuki, T., and Watelet, S.: A new global interior ocean mapped climatology: the 1∘ × 1∘ GLODAP version 2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 325–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-325-2016, 2016. a, b, c, d, e
Lavergne, A., Voelker, S., Csank, A., Graven, H., de Boer, H. J., Daux, V.,
Robertson, I., Dorado‐Liñán, I., Martínez‐Sancho, E.,
Battipaglia, G., Bloomfield, K. J., Still, C. J., Meinzer, F. C., Dawson,
T. E., Camarero, J. J., Clisby, R., Fang, Y., Menzel, A., Keen, R. M., Roden,
J. S., and Prentice, I. C.: Historical changes in the stomatal limitation of
photosynthesis: empirical support for an optimality principle, New
Phytol., 225, 2484–2497, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16314,
2019. a, b
Lavergne, A., Sandoval, D., Hare, V. J., Graven, H., and Prentice, I. C.:
Impacts of soil water stress on the acclimated stomatal limitation of
photosynthesis: Insights from stable carbon isotope data, Glob. Change
Biol., 26, 7158–7172, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15364, 2020. a
Levine, J. G., Wolff, E. W., Jones, A. E., Sime, L. C., Valdes, P. J.,
Archibald, A. T., Carver, G. D., Warwick, N. J., and Pyle, J. A.:
Reconciling the changes in atmospheric methane sources and sinks between the
Last Glacial Maximum and the pre-industrial era, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 38, L23804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049545, 2011. a
Liu, B., Six, K. D., and Ilyina, T.: Incorporating the stable carbon isotope 13C in the ocean biogeochemical component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, Biogeosciences, 18, 4389–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4389-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Ma, L., Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Sahajpal, R., Pongratz, J., Frolking, S., Stehfest, E., Klein Goldewijk, K., O'Leary, D., and Doelman, J. C.: Global rules for translating land-use change (LUH2) to land-cover change for CMIP6 using GLM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3203–3220, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3203-2020, 2020. a
MacDougall, A. H., Frölicher, T. L., Jones, C. D., Rogelj, J., Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Arora, V. K., Barrett, N. J., Brovkin, V., Burger, F. A., Eby, M., Eliseev, A. V., Hajima, T., Holden, P. B., Jeltsch-Thömmes, A., Koven, C., Mengis, N., Menviel, L., Michou, M., Mokhov, I. I., Oka, A., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Shaffer, G., Sokolov, A., Tachiiri, K., Tjiputra, J., Wiltshire, A., and Ziehn, T.: Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2, Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020. a
Maerz, J., Six, K. D., Stemmler, I., Ahmerkamp, S., and Ilyina, T.: Microstructure and composition of marine aggregates as co-determinants for vertical particulate organic carbon transfer in the global ocean, Biogeosciences, 17, 1765–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, 2020. a
Maier-Reimer, E. and Hasselmann, K.: Transport and storage of CO2 in the ocean
– an inorganic ocean-circulation carbon cycle model, Clim. Dynam.,
2, 63–90, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01054491, 1987. a, b
Maier-Reimer, E., Mikolajewicz, U., and Hasselmann, K.: Mean Circulation of
the Hamburg LSG OGCM and Its Sensitivity to the Thermohaline Surface
Forcing, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1993)023<0731:MCOTHL>2.0.CO;2, 1993. a
Matthes, K., Funke, B., Andersson, M. E., Barnard, L., Beer, J., Charbonneau, P., Clilverd, M. A., Dudok de Wit, T., Haberreiter, M., Hendry, A., Jackman, C. H., Kretzschmar, M., Kruschke, T., Kunze, M., Langematz, U., Marsh, D. R., Maycock, A. C., Misios, S., Rodger, C. J., Scaife, A. A., Seppälä, A., Shangguan, M., Sinnhuber, M., Tourpali, K., Usoskin, I., van de Kamp, M., Verronen, P. T., and Versick, S.: Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2247–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017, 2017. a
Matthews, H. D. and Solomon, S.: Irreversible does not mean unavoidable,
Science, 340, 438–439, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1236372, 2013. a
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R.,
Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S.,
Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H.,
Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T.,
Jimenéz-de-la Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S.,
Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke,
J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B.,
Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E., Nam, C. C., Notz, D., Nyawira, S. S.,
Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M.,
Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T.,
Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein,
L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J. S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese,
P., Wieners, K. H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.:
Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and
Its Response to Increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth
Sy., 11, 998–1038, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019. a, b
Medlyn, B. E., Duursma, R. a., Eamus, D., Ellsworth, D. S., Prentice, I. C.,
Barton, C. V. M., Crous, K. Y., De Angelis, P., Freeman, M., and Wingate,
L.: Reconciling the optimal and empirical approaches to modelling stomatal
conductance, Glob. Change Biol., 17, 2134–2144,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02375.x, 2011. a
Meinshausen, M., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N., Etheridge, D. M., Fraser, P. J., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Trudinger, C. M., Krummel, P. B., Beyerle, U., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., Enting, I. G., Law, R. M., Lunder, C. R., O'Doherty, S., Prinn, R. G., Reimann, S., Rubino, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., Wang, R. H. J., and Weiss, R.: Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017. a
Melack, J. M. and Hess, L. L.: Remote Sensing of the Distribution and Extent
of Wetlands in the Amazon Basin, in: Amazonian floodplain forests:
Ecophysiology, ecology, biodiversity and sustainable management, edited by:
Junk, W. J., Piedade, M. T., Wittmann, F., Schöngart, J., and Parolin,
P., Springer, 43–59, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8725-6_3, 2010. a
Mengis, N., Keller, D. P., MacDougall, A. H., Eby, M., Wright, N., Meissner, K. J., Oschlies, A., Schmittner, A., MacIsaac, A. J., Matthews, H. D., and Zickfeld, K.: Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4183–4204, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020, 2020. a
Milliman, J. D. and Droxler, A. W.: Neritic and pelagic carbonate
sedimentation in the marine environment: Ignorance is not bliss, Geol.
Rundsch., 85, 496–504, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02369004, 1996. a
Moore, C. M., Mills, M. M., Arrigo, K. R., Berman-Frank, I., Bopp, L., Boyd,
P. W., Galbraith, E. D., Geider, R. J., Guieu, C., Jaccard, S. L., Jickells,
T. D., La Roche, J., Lenton, T. M., Mahowald, N. M., Marañón,
E., Marinov, I., Moore, J. K., Nakatsuka, T., Oschlies, A., Saito, M. A.,
Thingstad, T. F., Tsuda, A., and Ulloa, O.: Processes and patterns of
oceanic nutrient limitation, Nat. Geosci., 6, 701–710,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1765, 2013. a
Müller, S. A., Joos, F., Plattner, G. K., Edwards, N. R., and Stocker,
T. F.: Modeled natural and excess radiocarbon: Sensitivities to the gas
exchange formulation and ocean transport strength, Global Biogeochem.
Cy., 22, GB3011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003065, 2008. a
Munhoven, G.: Glacial – Interglacial changes of continental weathering:
Estimates of the related CO2 and HCO3 – flux variations and their
uncertainties, Global Planet. Change, 33, 155–176,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00068-1, 2002. a, b, c
Munhoven, G.: Mathematics of the total alkalinity–pH equation – pathway to robust and universal solution algorithms: the SolveSAPHE package v1.0.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1367–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1367-2013, 2013. a
Munhoven, G. and François, L. M.: Glacial-interglacial changes in
continental weathering: Possible implications for atmospheric
CO2, in: Carbon Cycling in the Glacial Ocean: Constraints on the
Ocean's Role in Global Change, edited by: Zahn, R., Pedersen, T. F., Kaminski,
M. A., and Labeyrie, L., vol. 17 of NATO ASI Series I: Global
Environmental Change, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 39–58,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-78737-9_3, 1994. a, b
Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Gordon, B., Flanner, M. G., Kluzek, E., Peter,
J., Levis, S., Swenson, S. C., Thornton, E., and Feddema, J.: Technical
description of version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM),
NCAR/TN-478+STR NCAR Technical Note, 266 pp., https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RR1W7M,
2010. a
Olsen, A., Key, R. M., van Heuven, S., Lauvset, S. K., Velo, A., Lin, X., Schirnick, C., Kozyr, A., Tanhua, T., Hoppema, M., Jutterström, S., Steinfeldt, R., Jeansson, E., Ishii, M., Pérez, F. F., and Suzuki, T.: The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project version 2 (GLODAPv2) – an internally consistent data product for the world ocean, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 297–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-297-2016, 2016. a, b, c, d, e
Orr, J. C., Najjar, R. G., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Bullister, J. L., Danabasoglu, G., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Dutay, J.-C., Graven, H., Griffies, S. M., John, J. G., Joos, F., Levin, I., Lindsay, K., Matear, R. J., McKinley, G. A., Mouchet, A., Oschlies, A., Romanou, A., Schlitzer, R., Tagliabue, A., Tanhua, T., and Yool, A.: Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017. a, b
Papa, F., Prigent, C., Aires, F., Jimenez, C., Rossow, W. B., and Matthews, E.:
Interannual variability of surface water extent at the global scale,
1993–2004, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D12111,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012674, 2010. a, b, c
Parekh, P., Follows, M. J., and Boyle, E.: Modeling the global ocean iron
cycle, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB1002,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002061, 2004. a
Paulsen, H., Ilyina, T., Six, K. D., and Stemmler, I.: Incorporating a
prognostic representation of marine nitrogen fixers into the global ocean
biogeochemical model HAMOCC, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
9, 438–464, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000737, 2017. a
Petit, J. R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile,
I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M.,
Kotlyakov, V. M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V. Y., Lorius, C., PÉpin, L.,
Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., and Stievenard, M.: Climate and atmospheric history
of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, Nature, 399,
429–436, https://doi.org/10.1038/20859, 1999. a
Prather, M., Flato, G., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C., Lamarque, J., Liao, H.,
and Rasch, P.: IPCC, 2013: Annex II: Climate System Scenario Table, in:
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M.,
Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgle, P.,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/09/WG1AR5_AnnexII_FINAL.pdf (last access: 10 July 2022),
2013. a
Prentice, I. C., Dong, N., Gleason, S. M., Maire, V., and Wright, I. J.:
Balancing the costs of carbon gain and water transport: testing a new
theoretical framework for plant functional ecology., Ecol. Lett., 17,
82–91, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12211, 2014. a
Prigent, C., Papa, F., Aires, F., Rossow, W. B., and Matthews, E.: Global
inundation dynamics inferred from multiple satellite observations,
1993–2000, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12107,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007847, 2007. a, b, c
Raymo, M. and Ruddiman, W.: Tectonic Forcing of Late Cenozoic Climate,
Nature, 359, 117–122, 1992. a
Regnier, P., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Mackenzie, F. T., Gruber, N.,
Janssens, I. A., Laruelle, G. G., Lauerwald, R., Luyssaert, S., Andersson,
A. J., Arndt, S., Arnosti, C., Borges, A. V., Dale, A. W., Gallego-Sala, A.,
Goddéris, Y., Goossens, N., Hartmann, J., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Joos,
F., Larowe, D. E., Leifeld, J., Meysman, F. J., Munhoven, G., Raymond, P. A.,
Spahni, R., Suntharalingam, P., and Thullner, M.: Anthropogenic perturbation
of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean, Nat. Geosci., 6, 597–607,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1830, 2013. a
Ridgwell, A., Hargreaves, J. C., Edwards, N. R., Annan, J. D., Lenton, T. M., Marsh, R., Yool, A., and Watson, A.: Marine geochemical data assimilation in an efficient Earth System Model of global biogeochemical cycling, Biogeosciences, 4, 87–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-4-87-2007, 2007. a
Riley, W. J., Subin, Z. M., Lawrence, D. M., Swenson, S. C., Torn, M. S., Meng, L., Mahowald, N. M., and Hess, P.: Barriers to predicting changes in global terrestrial methane fluxes: analyses using CLM4Me, a methane biogeochemistry model integrated in CESM, Biogeosciences, 8, 1925–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-1925-2011, 2011. a
Romero-Mujalli, G., Hartmann, J., and Börker, J.: Temperature and CO2
dependency of global carbonate weathering fluxes – Implications for future
carbonate weathering research, Chem. Geol., 527, 118874,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2018.08.010, 2019. a
Sanderman, J., Hengl, T., and Fiske, G. J.: Soil carbon debt of 12,000 years
of human land use, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 9575–9580, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1706103114,
2017. a
Saunois, M., Stavert, A. R., Poulter, B., Bousquet, P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Raymond, P. A., Dlugokencky, E. J., Houweling, S., Patra, P. K., Ciais, P., Arora, V. K., Bastviken, D., Bergamaschi, P., Blake, D. R., Brailsford, G., Bruhwiler, L., Carlson, K. M., Carrol, M., Castaldi, S., Chandra, N., Crevoisier, C., Crill, P. M., Covey, K., Curry, C. L., Etiope, G., Frankenberg, C., Gedney, N., Hegglin, M. I., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Hugelius, G., Ishizawa, M., Ito, A., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Jensen, K. M., Joos, F., Kleinen, T., Krummel, P. B., Langenfelds, R. L., Laruelle, G. G., Liu, L., Machida, T., Maksyutov, S., McDonald, K. C., McNorton, J., Miller, P. A., Melton, J. R., Morino, I., Müller, J., Murguia-Flores, F., Naik, V., Niwa, Y., Noce, S., O'Doherty, S., Parker, R. J., Peng, C., Peng, S., Peters, G. P., Prigent, C., Prinn, R., Ramonet, M., Regnier, P., Riley, W. J., Rosentreter, J. A., Segers, A., Simpson, I. J., Shi, H., Smith, S. J., Steele, L. P., Thornton, B. F., Tian, H., Tohjima, Y., Tubiello, F. N., Tsuruta, A., Viovy, N., Voulgarakis, A., Weber, T. S., van Weele, M., van der Werf, G. R., Weiss, R. F., Worthy, D., Wunch, D., Yin, Y., Yoshida, Y., Zhang, W., Zhang, Z., Zhao, Y., Zheng, B., Zhu, Q., Zhu, Q., and Zhuang, Q.: The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e
Schaphoff, S., von Bloh, W., Rammig, A., Thonicke, K., Biemans, H., Forkel, M., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Knauer, J., Langerwisch, F., Lucht, W., Müller, C., Rolinski, S., and Waha, K.: LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 1: Model description, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018. a
Schubert, B. A. and Jahren, A. H.: Incorporating the effects of
photorespiration into terrestrial paleoclimate reconstruction, Earth-Sci.
Rev., 177, 637–642, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.12.008, 2018. a
Séférian, R., Berthet, S., Yool, A., Palmiéri, J., Bopp, L.,
Tagliabue, A., Kwiatkowski, L., Aumont, O., Christian, J., Dunne, J., Gehlen,
M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Li, H., Long, M. C., Luo, J. Y., Nakano, H.,
Romanou, A., Schwinger, J., Stock, C., Santana-Falcón, Y., Takano, Y.,
Tjiputra, J., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Wu, T., Wu, F., and Yamamoto, A.:
Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and
CMIP6, Current Climate Change Reports, 6, 95–119,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0, 2020. a
Segschneider, J. and Bendtsen, J.: Temperature-dependent remineralization in a
warming ocean increases surface pCO2 through changes in marine ecosystem
composition, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 1214–1225,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GB004684, 2013. a
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W.,
Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and
Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and
terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model,
Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x, 2003. a
Six, K. D. and Maier-Reimer, E.: Effects of plankton dynamics on seasonal
carbon fluxes in an ocean general circulation model, Global Biogeochem.
Cy., 10, 559–583, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GB02561, 1996. a
Stocker, B. D., Roth, R., Joos, F., Spahni, R., Steinacher, M., Zaehle, S.,
Bouwman, L., and Prentice, I. C.: Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the
land biosphere under future climate change scenarios, Nat. Clim. Change,
3, 666–672, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1864, 2013. a
Tagliabue, A., Mtshali, T., Aumont, O., Bowie, A. R., Klunder, M. B., Roychoudhury, A. N., and Swart, S.: A global compilation of dissolved iron measurements: focus on distributions and processes in the Southern Ocean, Biogeosciences, 9, 2333–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-2333-2012, 2012. a
Tagliabue, A., Aumont, O., DeAth, R., Dunne, J., Dutkiewicz, S., Galbraith, E.,
Misumi, K., Moore, J., Ridgewell, A., Sherman, E., Stock, C., Vichi, M.,
Volker, C., and Yool, A.: How well do global ocean biogeochemistry models
simulate dissolved iron distributions?, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30,
149–174, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005289, 2016. a
Takahashi, T., Broecker, W. S., and Langer, S.: Redfield ratio based on
chemical data from isopycnal surfaces., J. Geophys. Res., 90,
6907–6924, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC090iC04p06907, 1985. a
Tarnocai, C., Canadell, J. G., Schuur, E. a. G., Kuhry, P., Mazhitova, G., and
Zimov, S.: Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost
region, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB2023,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003327, 2009. a
Thornton, P. E. and Zimmermann, N. E.: An improved canopy integration scheme
for a Land Surface Model with prognostic canopy structure, J.
Climate, 20, 3902–3923, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4222.1, 2007. a
Tréguer, P. J. and De La Rocha, C. L.: The World Ocean Silica Cycle,
Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 5, 477–501,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-121211-172346,
2013. a, b, c
Tréguer, P. J., Sutton, J. N., Brzezinski, M., Charette, M. A., Devries, T., Dutkiewicz, S., Ehlert, C., Hawkings, J., Leynaert, A., Liu, S. M., Llopis Monferrer, N., López-Acosta, M., Maldonado, M., Rahman, S., Ran, L., and Rouxel, O.: Reviews and syntheses: The biogeochemical cycle of silicon in the modern ocean, Biogeosciences, 18, 1269–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1269-2021, 2021. a
Tschumi, T., Joos, F., Gehlen, M., and Heinze, C.: Deep ocean ventilation, carbon isotopes, marine sedimentation and the deglacial CO2 rise, Clim. Past, 7, 771–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-771-2011, 2011.
a
Ubierna, N. and Farquhar, G. D.: Advances in measurements and models of
photosynthetic carbon isotope discrimination in C3 plants, Plant Cell
Environ., 37, 1494–1498, https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.12346, 2014. a
Varney, R. M., Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., and Cox, P. M.: Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models, Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022. a, b, c
Willeit, M.: CLIMBER-X v1.0, Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7898797, 2023. a
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Calov, R., and Brovkin, V.: Mid-Pleistocene
transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith
removal, Science Advances, 5, eaav7337, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7337, 2019. a
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Robinson, A., and Edwards, N. R.: The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022. a, b, c
Willey, D. A., Fine, R. A., Sonnerup, R. E., Bullister, J. L., Smethie, W. M.,
and Warner, M. J.: Global oceanic chlorofluorocarbon inventory, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 31, L01303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018816, 2004. a, b
Yang, K., Koike, T., Ishikawa, H., Kim, J., Li, X., Liu, H., Liu, S., Ma, Y.,
and Wang, J.: Turbulent flux transfer over bare-soil surfaces:
Characteristics and parameterization, J. Appl. Meteorol.
Clim., 47, 276–290, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1547.1, 2008. a
Yu, Z., Loisel, J., Brosseau, D. P., Beilman, D. W., and Hunt, S. J.: Global
peatland dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 37, L13402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043584, 2010. a, b, c
Zehr, J. P. and Capone, D. G.: Changing perspectives in marine nitrogen
fixation, Science, 368, eaay9514, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9514, 2020. a
Zender, C. S., Newman, D., and Torres, O.: Spatial heterogeneity in aeolian
erodibility: Uniform, topographic, geomorphic, and hydrologic hypotheses,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4543,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd003039, 2003. a
Zheng, W., Wei, H., Wang, Z., Zeng, X., Meng, J., Ek, M., Mitchell, K., and
Derber, J.: Improvement of daytime land surface skin temperature over arid
regions in the NCEP GFS model and its impact on satellite data assimilation,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D06117,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015901, 2012. a
Zickfeld, K., Eby, M., Damon Matthews, H., Schmittner, A., and Weaver, A. J.:
Nonlinearity of carbon cycle feedbacks, J. Climate, 24, 4255–4275,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3898.1, 2011. a
Zilitinkevich, S.: Non-local turbulent transport: pollution dispersion aspects
of coherent structure of convective flows, International Conference on Air
Pollution – Proceedings, 1, 53–60, https://doi.org/10.2495/air950071, 1995. a, b
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system...
