Articles | Volume 15, issue 23
Model experiment description paper
13 Dec 2022
Model experiment description paper |  | 13 Dec 2022

Representing chemical history in ozone time-series predictions – a model experiment study building on the MLAir (v1.5) deep learning framework

Felix Kleinert, Lukas H. Leufen, Aurelia Lupascu, Tim Butler, and Martin G. Schultz

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Cited articles

Abdi‐Oskouei, M., Carmichael, G., Christiansen, M., Ferrada, G., Roozitalab, B., Sobhani, N., Wade, K., Czarnetzki, A., Pierce, R., Wagner, T., and Stanier, C.: Sensitivity of Meteorological Skill to Selection of WRF‐Chem Physical Parameterizations and Impact on Ozone Prediction During the Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031971,, 2020. a
Aliaga, D., Sinclair, V. A., Andrade, M., Artaxo, P., Carbone, S., Kadantsev, E., Laj, P., Wiedensohler, A., Krejci, R., and Bianchi, F.: Identifying source regions of air masses sampled at the tropical high-altitude site of Chacaltaya using WRF-FLEXPART and cluster analysis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16453–16477,, 2021. a
Archibald, A. T., Neu, J. L., Elshorbany, Y. F., Cooper, O. R., Young, P. J., Akiyoshi, H., Cox, R. A., Coyle, M., Derwent, R. G., Deushi, M., Finco, A., Frost, G. J., Galbally, I. E., Gerosa, G., Granier, C., Griffiths, P. T., Hossaini, R., Hu, L., Jöckel, P., Josse, B., Lin, M. Y., Mertens, M., Morgenstern, O., Naja, M., Naik, V., Oltmans, S., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L. E., Saiz-Lopez, A., Saxena, P., Shin, Y. M., Shahid, I., Shallcross, D., Tilmes, S., Trickl, T., Wallington, T. J., Wang, T., Worden, H. M., and Zeng, G.: Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: A critical review of changes in the tropospheric ozone burden and budget from 1850 to 2100, Elementa, 8, 034,, 2020. a
Avnery, S., Mauzerall, D. L., Liu, J., and Horowitz, L. W.: Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 1. Year 2000 crop production losses and economic damage, Atmos. Environ., 45, 2284–2296,, 2011. a
Short summary
We examine the effects of spatially aggregated upstream information as input for a deep learning model forecasting near-surface ozone levels. Using aggregated data from one upstream sector (45°) improves the forecast by ~ 10 % for 4 prediction days. Three upstream sectors improve the forecasts by ~ 14 % on the first 2 d only. Our results serve as an orientation for other researchers or environmental agencies focusing on pointwise time-series predictions, for example, due to regulatory purposes.