Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3539-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3539-2021
Development and technical paper
 | 
11 Jun 2021
Development and technical paper |  | 11 Jun 2021

A Markov chain method for weighting climate model ensembles

Max Kulinich, Yanan Fan, Spiridon Penev, Jason P. Evans, and Roman Olson

Related authors

Evaluating Microphysics and Boundary Layer Schemes in WRF: Assessment of 36 Scheme Combinations for 17 Major Storms in Saudi Arabia
Rajesh Kumar Sahu, Hamza Kunhu Bangalath, Suleiman Mostamandi, Jason Evans, Paul A. Kucera, and Hylke E. Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-912,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-912, 2025
Short summary
Evaluation of CORDEX ERA5-forced NARCliM2.0 regional climate models over Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.1.2
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jason P. Evans, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Yue Li, and Matthew L. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 703–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, 2025
Short summary
Design, evaluation, and future projections of the NARCliM2.0 CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia regional climate ensemble
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Stephen White, Yue Li, Moutassem El Rafei, Rishav Goyal, Matthew L. Riley, and Jyothi Lingala
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, 2025
Short summary
The influence of lateral flow on land surface fluxes in southeast Australia varies with model resolution
Anjana Devanand, Jason Evans, Andy Pitman, Sujan Pal, David Gochis, and Kevin Sampson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3148,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3148, 2024
Short summary
A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation
Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan, Acacia Pepler, Timothy H. Raupach, Andrew Dowdy, Fiona Johnson, Michelle Ho, Kathleen L. McInnes, Doerte Jakob, Jason Evans, Gabriele Villarini, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1251–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Climate and Earth system modeling
A method for quantifying uncertainty in spatially interpolated meteorological data with application to daily maximum air temperature
Conor T. Doherty, Weile Wang, Hirofumi Hashimoto, and Ian G. Brosnan
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3003–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, 2025
Short summary
Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling
Martin Juckes, Karl E. Taylor, Fabrizio Antonio, David Brayshaw, Carlo Buontempo, Jian Cao, Paul J. Durack, Michio Kawamiya, Hyungjun Kim, Tomas Lovato, Chloe Mackallah, Matthew Mizielinski, Alessandra Nuzzo, Martina Stockhause, Daniele Visioni, Jeremy Walton, Briony Turner, Eleanor O'Rourke, and Beth Dingley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, 2025
Short summary
PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data
Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Alexander Reedy, Matteo Turilli, Shantenu Jha, and Erica L. Ashe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2609–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, 2025
Short summary
The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
Short summary
ZEMBA v1.0: an energy and moisture balance climate model to investigate Quaternary climate
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Abramowitz, G., Herger, N., Gutmann, E., Hammerling, D., Knutti, R., Leduc, M., Lorenz, R., Pincus, R., and Schmidt, G. A.: ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019. a, b
Bai, J. and Wang, P.: Conditional Markov chain and its application in economic time series analysis, J. Appl. Econ., 26, 715–734, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1140, 2011. a
Bishop, C. H. and Abramowitz, G.: Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm, Clim. Dynam., 41, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1610-y, 2013. a, b, c
Del Moral, P. and Penev, S.: Stochastic Processes. From Applications to Theory, p. 121, Taylor and Francis Group, Boca Raton, 2016. a
Evans, J. P., Ji, F., Lee, C., Smith, P., Argüeso, D., and Fita, L.: Design of a regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment – NARCliM, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 621–629, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-621-2014, 2014. a
Download
Short summary
We present a novel stochastic approach based on Markov chains to estimate climate model weights of multi-model ensemble means. This approach showed improved performance (better correlation with observations) over existing alternatives during cross-validation and model-as-truth tests. The results of this comparative analysis should serve to motivate further studies in applications of Markov chain and other nonlinear methods to find optimal model weights for constructing ensemble means.
Share