Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3539–3551, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3539-2021
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3539–3551, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3539-2021

Development and technical paper 11 Jun 2021

Development and technical paper | 11 Jun 2021

A Markov chain method for weighting climate model ensembles

Max Kulinich et al.

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Short summary
We present a novel stochastic approach based on Markov chains to estimate climate model weights of multi-model ensemble means. This approach showed improved performance (better correlation with observations) over existing alternatives during cross-validation and model-as-truth tests. The results of this comparative analysis should serve to motivate further studies in applications of Markov chain and other nonlinear methods to find optimal model weights for constructing ensemble means.