Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3539-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3539-2021
Development and technical paper
 | 
11 Jun 2021
Development and technical paper |  | 11 Jun 2021

A Markov chain method for weighting climate model ensembles

Max Kulinich, Yanan Fan, Spiridon Penev, Jason P. Evans, and Roman Olson

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Latest update: 13 Jul 2024
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Short summary
We present a novel stochastic approach based on Markov chains to estimate climate model weights of multi-model ensemble means. This approach showed improved performance (better correlation with observations) over existing alternatives during cross-validation and model-as-truth tests. The results of this comparative analysis should serve to motivate further studies in applications of Markov chain and other nonlinear methods to find optimal model weights for constructing ensemble means.