Articles | Volume 12, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019
Development and technical paper
 | 
17 Jul 2019
Development and technical paper |  | 17 Jul 2019

Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation

Sihan Li, David E. Rupp, Linnia Hawkins, Philip W. Mote, Doug McNeall, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Richard A. Betts, and Justin J. Wettstein

Related authors

Causes, consequences and implications of the 2023 landslide-induced Lake Rasac glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1207–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Modelling of post-monsoon drying in Nepal: implications for landslide hazard
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Sihan Li, Katherine Arrell, Jeevan Baniya, Dipak Basnet, Gopi K. Basyal, Nyima Dorjee Bhotia, Alexander L. Densmore, Tek Bahadur Dong, Alexandre Dunant, Erin L. Harvey, Ganesh K. Jimee, Mark E. Kincey, Katie Oven, Sarmila Paudyal, Dammar Singh Pujara, Anuradha Puri, Ram Shrestha, Nick J. Rosser, and Simon J. Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-397,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-397, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Brief Communication: Weak correlation between building damage and loss of life from landslides
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Alexandre Dunant, Amy L. Johnson, Erin L. Harvey, Sihan Li, Katherine Arrell, Jeevan Baniya, Dipak Basnet, Gopi K. Basyal, Nyima Dorjee Bhotia, Simon J. Dadson, Alexander L. Densmore, Tek Bahadur Dong, Mark E. Kincey, Katie Oven, Anuradha Puri, and Nick J. Rosser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-40,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-40, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought
Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 131–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Climate and Earth system modeling
ZEMBA v1.0: an energy and moisture balance climate model to investigate Quaternary climate
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
Short summary
Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2443–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, 2025
Short summary
TemDeep: a self-supervised framework for temporal downscaling of atmospheric fields at arbitrary time resolutions
Liwen Wang, Qian Li, Qi Lv, Xuan Peng, and Wei You
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2427–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, 2025
Short summary
The ensemble consistency test: from CESM to MPAS and beyond
Teo Price-Broncucia, Allison Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Michael Duda, and Rebecca Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2349–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, 2025
Short summary
Presentation, calibration and testing of the DCESS II Earth system model of intermediate complexity (version 1.0)
Esteban Fernández Villanueva and Gary Shaffer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2161–2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P. P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-0Present), J. Hydrometeor., 4, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2, 2003. 
Allen, M.: Do-it-yourself climate prediction, Nature, 401, 642, https://doi.org/10.1038/44266, 1999. 
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Efficient estimation and ensemble generation in climate modelling, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 365, 2077–2088, 2007. 
Annan, J. D., Lunt, D. J., Hargreaves, J. C., and Valdes, P. J.: Parameter estimation in an atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 363–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-12-363-2005, 2005. 
Bellprat, O., Kotlarski, S., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Exploring perturbed physics ensembles in a regional climate model, J. Climate, 25, 4582–4599, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00275.1, 2012a. 
Download
Short summary
Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many of which have regional biases larger than the expected climate signal over the next half-century. This work shows the potential for improving climate model simulations through a multiphased parameter refinement approach. Regional warm biases are substantially reduced, suggesting this iterative approach is one path to improving climate models and simulations of present and future climate.
Share