Articles | Volume 10, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4563-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4563-2017
Model description paper
 | 
15 Dec 2017
Model description paper |  | 15 Dec 2017

A method to encapsulate model structural uncertainty in ensemble projections of future climate: EPIC v1.0

Jared Lewis, Greg E. Bodeker, Stefanie Kremser, and Andrew Tait

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Cited articles

Ackerley, D., Dean, S., Sood, A., and Mullan, A. B.: Regional climate modeling in NZ: comparison to gridded and satellite observations, Wea. Clim., 32, 3–22, 2012.
Bhaskaran, B., Mullan, A. B., and Renwick, J.: Modelling of atmospheric variation at NIWA, Wea. Clim., 19, 23–36, 1999.
Bhaskaran, B., Renwick, J., and Mullan, A. B.: On application of the Unified Model to produce finer scale climate information, Wea. Clim., 22, 19–27, 2002.
Bodeker, G. E. and Kremser, S.: Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 1673–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1673-2015, 2015.
Drost, F., Renwick, J., Bhaskaran, B., Oliver, H., and MacGregor, J. L.: Simulation of New Zealand's climate using a high-resolution nested regional climate model, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1153–1169, 2007.
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Short summary
The Ensemble Projections Incorporating Climate model uncertainty (EPIC) method uses climate pattern scaling to expand a small number of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature projections into an ensemble that captures the structural uncertainty between climate models. The method is useful for providing projections of changes in climate to users wishing to investigate the impacts of climate change in a probabilistic and computationally efficient way.
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