Articles | Volume 8, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
11 Dec 2015
Methods for assessment of models |  | 11 Dec 2015

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

J. M. Eden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, E. Hawkins, and E. B. Suckling

Related authors

Evaluation of CMIP6 model performances in simulating fire weather spatiotemporal variability on global and regional scales
Carolina Gallo, Jonathan M. Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Peter Z. Fulé, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, and Matthew Blackett
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3103–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023, 2023
Short summary

Related subject area

Climate and Earth system modeling
The ensemble consistency test: from CESM to MPAS and beyond
Teo Price-Broncucia, Allison Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Michael Duda, and Rebecca Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2349–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, 2025
Short summary
Presentation, calibration and testing of the DCESS II Earth system model of intermediate complexity (version 1.0)
Esteban Fernández Villanueva and Gary Shaffer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2161–2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Synthesizing global carbon–nitrogen coupling effects – the MAGICC coupled carbon–nitrogen cycle model v1.0
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
Short summary
Historical trends and controlling factors of isoprene emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Alexander, M. A., Bladé, I., Newman, M., Lanzante, J. R., Lau, N.-C., and Scott, J. D.: The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans, J. Climate, 15, 2205–2231, 2002.
Balmaseda, M. and Anderson, D.: Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035561, 2009.
Brands, S., Manzanas, R., Gutiérrez, J. M., and Cohen, J.: Seasonal predictability of wintertime precipitation in Europe using the snow advance index, J. Climate, 25, 4023–4028, 2012.
Download
Short summary
Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.
Share