A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

Articles | Volume 8, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 8, issue 12

Methods for assessment of models

|

11 Dec 2015

Methods for assessment of models |

| 11 Dec 2015

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

J. M. Eden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, E. Hawkins, and E. B. Suckling

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Final revised paper (published on 11 Dec 2015)
Preprint (discussion started on 26 May 2015)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC C1159: 'Referee comments on A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Jun 2015
RC C1457: 'Review of “A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction”', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 Jul 2015
AC C1822: 'Response to reviewer comments', Jonathan Eden, 30 Aug 2015

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Jonathan Eden on behalf of the Authors (27 Sep 2015) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (Editor review) (15 Oct 2015) by Sophie Valcke

AR by Jonathan Eden on behalf of the Authors (25 Oct 2015) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (Editor review) (28 Oct 2015) by Sophie Valcke

Dear Author,

Thank you very much for this detailed review. Please answer the following final comments before publication:

Figure 1 and Figure 2 captions:
-please add “for (a) MAM, (b) JJA, (c) SON, (d) DJF” at the end of the first sentence;
-replace “top line” with “top left panel” and “subsequent lines” with “subsequent panels”

Figure 3 needs to be fixed :
-Captions refer to “(b)-(h)” and those letters do not appear on the figures.
-I think the right formulation would be: “Correlation between SAT hindcasts and observations (1961-2013) for (a) MAM, (b) JJA, (c) SON, (d) DJF. The top left panel shows correlation between observations and SAT hindcasts constructed using CO2-equivalent as the sole predictor; stippling is used to indicate significance at the 95% level. Subsequent panels show the difference in correlation following the inclusion of additional predictors."
-Figure 3 (c) is missing LSST and CPREC

Figure 6 needs to be fixed :
-Captions refer to “(b)-(h)” and those letters do not appear on the figures.
-I think the right formulation would be: “Correlation between PREC hindcasts and observations (1961-2013) for (a) MAM, (b) JJA, (c) SON, (d) DJF. The top left panel shows correlation between observations and PREC hindcasts constructed using CO2-equivalent as the sole predictor; stippling is used to indicate significance at the 95% level. Subsequent panels show the difference in correlation following the inclusion of additional predictors."

p.12, please replace “... along the top row of panels. Subsequent rows ...” with “... along the top left row of panels. Subsequent panels ...” and please make the similar changes everywhere in the text if needed (I did not check).

p.13: keep “is” in “associated with PDO is likely captured by NINO3.4

p.14: change “It is be anticipated that LSST is may be beneficial” for “It is anticipated that LSST may be beneficial“

With best regards,
Sophie Valcke

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AR by Jonathan Eden on behalf of the Authors (02 Nov 2015) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (26 Nov 2015) by Astrid Kerkweg

AR by Jonathan Eden on behalf of the Authors (27 Nov 2015)

Short summary

Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.