Articles | Volume 8, issue 12
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

Methods for assessment of models 11 Dec 2015

Methods for assessment of models | 11 Dec 2015

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

J. M. Eden et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Jonathan Eden on behalf of the Authors (27 Sep 2015)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (Editor review) (15 Oct 2015) by Sophie Valcke
AR by Jonathan Eden on behalf of the Authors (25 Oct 2015)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (Editor review) (28 Oct 2015) by Sophie Valcke
AR by Jonathan Eden on behalf of the Authors (02 Nov 2015)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (26 Nov 2015) by Astrid Kerkweg
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Short summary
Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.