Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 8, issue 12
Articles | Volume 8, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 8, issue 12
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
11 Dec 2015
Methods for assessment of models |  | 11 Dec 2015

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

J. M. Eden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, E. Hawkins, and E. B. Suckling

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Short summary
Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.
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