Articles | Volume 8, issue 12
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
Methods for assessment of models
11 Dec 2015
Methods for assessment of models | 11 Dec 2015

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

J. M. Eden et al.

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Short summary
Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.