A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

doi:10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

Articles | Volume 8, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 8, issue 12

Methods for assessment of models

|

11 Dec 2015

Methods for assessment of models |

| 11 Dec 2015

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

J. M. Eden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, E. Hawkins, and E. B. Suckling

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Latest update: 30 Jan 2026

Short summary

Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.