Articles | Volume 8, issue 12
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
11 Dec 2015
Methods for assessment of models
| 11 Dec 2015
A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction
J. M. Eden et al.
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast model with automatic predictor selection and its application to central and south Asia L. Gerlitz et al. 10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016
- Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors M. Kretschmer et al. 10.1002/2017GL074696
- A Statistical Model to Predict the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones M. Bieli et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0045.1
- Development of an empirical model for seasonal forecasting over the Mediterranean E. Rodríguez-Guisado et al. 10.5194/asr-16-191-2019
- Long‐Range Forecasting as a Past Value Problem: Untangling Correlations and Causality With Scaling L. Del Rio Amador & S. Lovejoy 10.1029/2020GL092147
- Enhanced seasonal predictability of the summer mean temperature in Central Europe favored by new dominant weather patterns P. Hoffmann 10.1007/s00382-017-3772-0
- A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States J. Garrido-Perez et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290
- Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts D. Tommasi et al. 10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011
- Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis S. Totz et al. 10.1002/2017GL075674
- The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation D. Coumou et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8
- Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues M. Menary et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb
- Identifying El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on rainfall with classification models: implications for water resource management of Sri Lanka T. De Silva M. & G. Hornberger 10.5194/hess-23-1905-2019
- K-Means and C4.5 Decision Tree Based Prediction of Long-Term Precipitation Variability in the Poyang Lake Basin, China D. Lou et al. 10.3390/atmos12070834
- Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe L. Rodrigues et al. 10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4
- An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts E. Suckling et al. 10.1007/s00382-016-3255-8
- An empirical prediction approach for seasonal fire risk in the boreal forests J. Eden et al. 10.1002/joc.6363
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast model with automatic predictor selection and its application to central and south Asia L. Gerlitz et al. 10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016
- Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors M. Kretschmer et al. 10.1002/2017GL074696
- A Statistical Model to Predict the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones M. Bieli et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0045.1
- Development of an empirical model for seasonal forecasting over the Mediterranean E. Rodríguez-Guisado et al. 10.5194/asr-16-191-2019
- Long‐Range Forecasting as a Past Value Problem: Untangling Correlations and Causality With Scaling L. Del Rio Amador & S. Lovejoy 10.1029/2020GL092147
- Enhanced seasonal predictability of the summer mean temperature in Central Europe favored by new dominant weather patterns P. Hoffmann 10.1007/s00382-017-3772-0
- A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States J. Garrido-Perez et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290
- Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts D. Tommasi et al. 10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011
- Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis S. Totz et al. 10.1002/2017GL075674
- The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation D. Coumou et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8
- Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues M. Menary et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb
- Identifying El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on rainfall with classification models: implications for water resource management of Sri Lanka T. De Silva M. & G. Hornberger 10.5194/hess-23-1905-2019
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- K-Means and C4.5 Decision Tree Based Prediction of Long-Term Precipitation Variability in the Poyang Lake Basin, China D. Lou et al. 10.3390/atmos12070834
- Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe L. Rodrigues et al. 10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4
- An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts E. Suckling et al. 10.1007/s00382-016-3255-8
- An empirical prediction approach for seasonal fire risk in the boreal forests J. Eden et al. 10.1002/joc.6363
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Latest update: 09 Aug 2022
Short summary
Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.
Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of...
