Articles | Volume 8, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
11 Dec 2015
Methods for assessment of models |
| 11 Dec 2015
A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
G. J. van Oldenborgh
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
E. Hawkins
NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
E. B. Suckling
NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
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- Seasonal forecast of the percentage of days with extreme temperatures in central-northern Argentina: An operational statistical approach S. Collazo et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100293
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18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Flow signatures and catchment’s attributes for HCA clustering in a hydrologic similarity assessment (Tunisian case) R. Chérif & E. Gargouri-Ellouze 10.1038/s41598-023-38608-6
- A statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast model with automatic predictor selection and its application to central and south Asia L. Gerlitz et al. 10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016
- A Statistical Model to Predict the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones M. Bieli et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0045.1
- Long‐Range Forecasting as a Past Value Problem: Untangling Correlations and Causality With Scaling L. Del Rio Amador & S. Lovejoy 10.1029/2020GL092147
- Enhanced seasonal predictability of the summer mean temperature in Central Europe favored by new dominant weather patterns P. Hoffmann 10.1007/s00382-017-3772-0
- The Added Value of Statistical Seasonal Forecasts F. Krikken et al. 10.3390/cli12060083
- Seasonal predictions of energy-relevant climate variables through Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections I. Cionni et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100294
- CanStoc: A Hybrid Stochastic–GCM System for Monthly, Seasonal and Interannual Predictions S. Lovejoy & L. Del Rio Amador 10.3390/meteorology2040029
- The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation D. Coumou et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8
- Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues M. Menary et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb
- Identifying El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on rainfall with classification models: implications for water resource management of Sri Lanka T. De Silva M. & G. Hornberger 10.5194/hess-23-1905-2019
- Development of an empirical model for seasonal forecasting over the Mediterranean E. Rodríguez-Guisado et al. 10.5194/asr-16-191-2019
- Seasonal forecast of the percentage of days with extreme temperatures in central-northern Argentina: An operational statistical approach S. Collazo et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100293
- A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States J. Garrido-Perez et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290
- Systematic Global Evaluation of Seasonal Climate Forecast Skill for Monthly Precipitation of JMA/MRI-CPS2 Compared with a Statistical Forecast System Using Climate Indices Y. MASUTOMI et al. 10.2151/jmsj.2023-014
- Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts D. Tommasi et al. 10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011
- Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis S. Totz et al. 10.1002/2017GL075674
- Probabilistic subseasonal precipitation forecasts using preceding atmospheric intraseasonal signals in a Bayesian perspective Y. Li et al. 10.5194/hess-26-4975-2022
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe L. Rodrigues et al. 10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4
- An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts E. Suckling et al. 10.1007/s00382-016-3255-8
- An empirical prediction approach for seasonal fire risk in the boreal forests J. Eden et al. 10.1002/joc.6363
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Latest update: 22 Jul 2025
Short summary
Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.
Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of...
