Articles | Volume 8, issue 12
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

Methods for assessment of models 11 Dec 2015

Methods for assessment of models | 11 Dec 2015

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

J. M. Eden et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 3,451 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,335 1,972 144 3,451 142 154
  • HTML: 1,335
  • PDF: 1,972
  • XML: 144
  • Total: 3,451
  • BibTeX: 142
  • EndNote: 154
Views and downloads (calculated since 26 May 2015)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 26 May 2015)

Cited

Saved (final revised paper)

Saved (final revised paper)

Saved (preprint)

Latest update: 25 Feb 2021
Download
Short summary
Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.